Doug Bernier

PosSS

B/TR/R

Born1980-06-24

Age (2027)47

No MLB projection yet. Career stats below are historical.

Overview

AAALAST SEASON 2017

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2015	35	AAAWSH	342	.256/.341/.306	2	2	52	—	.220/.282/.262
2016	36	AAATEX	473	.275/.352/.411	10	7	65	—	.226/.281/.333
2017	37	AAATEX	254	.247/.314/.318	3	0	31	—	.192/.245/.240

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2005	25	AA	Tulsa Drillers	—	441	369	75	14	2	3	46	103	8	1	4	203	305	276	581	73	267	23	10	263	43	—	—	—	—	—	—
2006	26	AA	Tulsa Drillers	—	289	246	69	16	3	1	30	46	2	4	1	280	363	382	745	102	338	16	10	326	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	27	AAA	Colorado Springs Sky Sox	—	252	216	67	15	0	2	31	51	1	4	2	310	399	407	807	97	394	20	12	361	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	28	AAA	Colorado Springs Sky Sox	—	418	337	86	10	4	9	64	79	8	1	2	255	386	389	775	134	304	19	15	348	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	29	AAA	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Yankees	—	273	227	41	9	2	0	34	71	7	1	0	181	306	238	544	57	261	26	12	259	30	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	30	AAA	Indianapolis Indians	—	226	200	48	14	0	1	17	48	1	6	1	240	303	325	628	85	309	21	8	277	41	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	31	AAA	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Yankees	—	336	291	69	13	4	0	37	78	3	4	1	237	329	309	639	72	322	23	11	292	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	32	AAA	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Yankees	—	208	174	35	9	0	0	27	49	0	1	2	201	308	253	561	52	278	24	13	259	23	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	33	MLB	Minnesota Twins	—	64	53	12	3	0	0	8	15	1	2	1	226	339	283	622	57	316	23	12	286	72	-2	+0	+2	+4	+1	0.6
2013	33	AAA	Rochester Red Wings	—	353	302	89	15	5	3	31	74	7	4	2	295	374	407	781	113	377	21	9	340	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	34	AAA	Rochester Red Wings	—	466	404	113	25	2	6	40	78	5	5	4	280	352	396	748	116	329	17	9	326	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	35	AAA	Rochester Red Wings	—	342	301	77	9	0	2	36	57	3	2	2	256	341	306	647	50	309	17	11	300	52	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	36	AAA	Round Rock Express	—	473	414	114	18	4	10	45	97	4	7	6	275	352	411	763	135	335	21	10	336	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	37	AAA	Round Rock Express	—	254	223	55	7	0	3	18	53	4	0	1	247	314	318	633	72	308	21	7	281	31	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	64	53	12	3	0	0	8	15	1	2	1	226	339	283	622	57	316	23	12	286	80	-2	+0	+2	+4	+1	0.7
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2005	25	AA MLE	Tulsa Drillers	—	441	383	73	13	2	2	32	126	8	1	4	191	267	251	518	60	253	29	7	232	43	—	—	—	—	—	—
2006	26	AA MLE	Tulsa Drillers	—	289	255	68	15	3	1	21	56	2	4	1	267	327	361	688	94	315	19	7	290	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	27	AAA MLE	Colorado Springs Sky Sox	—	252	225	60	12	0	2	22	66	1	4	2	267	335	347	681	80	358	26	9	301	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	28	AAA MLE	Colorado Springs Sky Sox	—	418	358	76	8	3	7	43	102	8	1	2	212	311	310	621	98	265	24	10	283	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	29	AAA MLE	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Yankees	—	273	239	39	8	2	0	22	85	7	1	0	163	254	213	467	50	237	31	8	212	30	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	30	AAA MLE	Indianapolis Indians	—	226	206	43	12	0	1	11	60	1	6	1	209	252	282	534	73	272	27	5	229	41	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	31	AAA MLE	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Yankees	—	336	303	62	11	3	0	25	94	3	4	1	205	272	261	533	56	293	28	7	241	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	32	AAA MLE	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Yankees	—	208	184	31	7	0	0	17	59	0	1	2	168	239	207	445	38	233	28	8	202	23	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	33	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	—	64	54	12	3	0	0	7	15	1	2	1	222	323	278	600	56	316	23	11	275	72	-2	+0	+2	+4	+1	0.6
2013	33	AAA MLE	Rochester Red Wings	—	353	314	80	13	5	3	19	90	7	4	2	255	312	357	668	102	324	25	5	284	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	34	AAA MLE	Rochester Red Wings	—	466	421	98	19	2	5	23	93	5	5	4	233	281	323	604	90	271	20	5	259	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	35	AAA MLE	Rochester Red Wings	—	342	313	69	7	0	2	24	66	3	2	2	220	282	262	544	42	271	19	7	245	52	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	36	AAA MLE	Round Rock Express	—	473	430	97	13	3	9	29	125	4	7	6	226	281	333	613	107	283	26	6	264	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	37	AAA MLE	Round Rock Express	—	254	229	44	5	0	2	12	66	4	0	1	192	245	240	485	48	246	26	5	214	31	—	—	—	—	—	—
2005	25	AA MLE	Tulsa Drillers	—	441	383	73	13	2	2	32	126	8	1	4	191	267	251	518	60	271	29	7	232	43	—	—	—	—	—	—
2005	25	AA RAW	Tulsa Drillers	—	441	369	75	14	2	3	46	103	8	1	4	203	305	276	581	73	267	23	10	263	43	—	—	—	—	—	—
2006	26	AA MLE	Tulsa Drillers	—	289	255	68	15	3	1	21	56	2	4	1	267	327	361	688	94	335	19	7	290	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2006	26	AA RAW	Tulsa Drillers	—	289	246	69	16	3	1	30	46	2	4	1	280	363	382	745	102	338	16	10	326	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	27	AAA MLE	Colorado Springs Sky Sox	—	252	225	60	12	0	2	22	66	1	4	2	267	335	347	681	80	365	26	9	301	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	27	AAA RAW	Colorado Springs Sky Sox	—	252	216	67	15	0	2	31	51	1	4	2	310	399	407	807	97	394	20	12	361	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	28	AAA MLE	Colorado Springs Sky Sox	—	418	358	76	8	3	7	43	102	8	1	2	212	311	310	621	98	273	24	10	283	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	28	AAA RAW	Colorado Springs Sky Sox	—	418	337	86	10	4	9	64	79	8	1	2	255	386	389	775	134	304	19	15	348	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	29	AAA MLE	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Yankees	—	273	239	39	8	2	0	22	85	7	1	0	163	254	213	467	50	252	31	8	212	30	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	29	AAA RAW	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Yankees	—	273	227	41	9	2	0	34	71	7	1	0	181	306	238	544	57	261	26	12	259	30	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	30	AAA MLE	Indianapolis Indians	—	226	206	43	12	0	1	11	60	1	6	1	209	252	282	534	73	288	27	5	229	41	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	30	AAA RAW	Indianapolis Indians	—	226	200	48	14	0	1	17	48	1	6	1	240	303	325	628	85	309	21	8	277	41	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	31	AAA MLE	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Yankees	—	336	303	62	11	3	0	25	94	3	4	1	205	272	261	533	56	295	28	7	241	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	31	AAA RAW	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Yankees	—	336	291	69	13	4	0	37	78	3	4	1	237	329	309	639	72	322	23	11	292	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	32	AAA MLE	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Yankees	—	208	184	31	7	0	0	17	59	0	1	2	168	239	207	445	38	246	28	8	202	23	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	32	AAA RAW	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Yankees	—	208	174	35	9	0	0	27	49	0	1	2	201	308	253	561	52	278	24	13	259	23	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	33	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	417	368	92	16	5	3	26	105	8	6	3	250	313	345	659	95	338	25	6	283	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	33	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	417	355	101	18	5	3	39	89	8	6	3	285	368	389	757	104	368	21	9	332	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	34	AAA MLE	Rochester Red Wings	—	466	421	98	19	2	5	23	93	5	5	4	233	281	323	604	90	284	20	5	259	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	34	AAA RAW	Rochester Red Wings	—	466	404	113	25	2	6	40	78	5	5	4	280	352	396	748	116	329	17	9	326	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	35	AAA MLE	Rochester Red Wings	—	342	313	69	7	0	2	24	66	3	2	2	220	282	262	544	42	272	19	7	245	52	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	35	AAA RAW	Rochester Red Wings	—	342	301	77	9	0	2	36	57	3	2	2	256	341	306	647	50	309	17	11	300	52	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	36	AAA MLE	Round Rock Express	—	473	430	97	13	3	9	29	125	4	7	6	226	281	333	613	107	294	26	6	264	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	36	AAA RAW	Round Rock Express	—	473	414	114	18	4	10	45	97	4	7	6	275	352	411	763	135	335	21	10	336	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	37	AAA MLE	Round Rock Express	—	254	229	44	5	0	2	12	66	4	0	1	192	245	240	485	48	258	26	5	214	31	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	37	AAA RAW	Round Rock Express	—	254	223	55	7	0	3	18	53	4	0	1	247	314	318	633	72	308	21	7	281	31	—	—	—	—	—	—
2005	25	AA MLE	Tulsa Drillers	—	441	398	73	13	2	2	32	126	8	1	4	183	267	241	508	58	253	29	7	232	43	—	—	—	—	—	—
2006	26	AA MLE	Tulsa Drillers	—	289	264	68	15	3	1	21	56	2	4	1	258	327	348	676	91	315	19	7	290	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	27	AAA MLE	Colorado Springs Sky Sox	—	252	227	60	12	0	2	22	66	1	4	2	264	335	344	678	79	358	26	9	301	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	28	AAA MLE	Colorado Springs Sky Sox	—	418	364	76	8	3	7	43	102	8	1	2	209	311	305	615	96	265	24	10	283	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	29	AAA MLE	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Yankees	—	273	242	39	8	2	0	22	85	7	1	0	161	254	211	464	50	237	31	8	212	30	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	30	AAA MLE	Indianapolis Indians	—	226	212	43	12	0	1	11	60	1	6	1	203	252	274	526	71	272	27	5	229	41	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	31	AAA MLE	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Yankees	—	336	305	62	11	3	0	25	94	3	4	1	203	272	259	531	56	293	28	7	241	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	32	AAA MLE	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Yankees	—	208	189	31	7	0	0	17	59	0	1	2	164	239	201	440	37	233	28	8	202	23	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	33	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	417	380	92	16	5	3	26	105	8	6	3	242	313	334	648	92	323	25	6	283	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	34	AAA MLE	Rochester Red Wings	—	466	435	98	19	2	5	23	93	5	5	4	225	281	313	593	87	271	20	5	259	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	35	AAA MLE	Rochester Red Wings	—	342	312	69	7	0	2	24	66	3	2	2	221	282	263	545	42	271	19	7	245	52	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	36	AAA MLE	Round Rock Express	—	473	437	97	13	3	9	29	125	4	7	6	222	281	327	608	105	283	26	6	264	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	37	AAA MLE	Round Rock Express	—	254	236	44	5	0	2	12	66	4	0	1	186	245	233	478	47	246	26	5	214	31	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	64	53	12	3	0	0	8	15	1	2	1	226	339	283	622	57	316	23	12	286	58	-2	+0	+2	+4	+1	0.7
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	538	121	30	0	0	81	152	10	20	10	225	337	281	617	56	313	23	12	286	58	-16	+0	+25	+45	+14	7.1
Career	—	MLE		—	4395	3914	852	146	23	34	307	1103	54	42	29	218	284	293	577	75	291	25	7	254	58	-2	+0	+2	+4	+1	0.7
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	579	126	22	3	5	45	163	8	6	4	218	283	292	575	74	291	25	7	254	58	-16	+0	+25	+45	+14	7.1

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2017 AAARound Rock Express · 254 PAwOBA .276 → .214 (−63)K% 20.9% → 26.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	20.87%	÷1.033	×1.290	—	—	26.05%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.09%	÷1.037	×0.710	—	×0.940	4.56%
HBP% /PA	1.57%	—	×0.980	—	×0.940	1.45%
Singles /BIP	26.47%	÷1.039	×0.900	×0.999	×0.940	21.54%
Doubles /BIP	4.12%	÷1.039	×0.810	×0.999	×0.940	3.02%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.046	×0.810	×0.999	×0.940	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	1.76%	÷1.117	×0.780	—	×0.940	1.16%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 123, 1B 108, 2B 108, 3B 109, K 107, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 37 vs a level average of 27.2 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (9.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.999.

Result: wOBA .276 → .214; ISO .072 → .050; BABIP .308 → .246. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 AAARound Rock Express · 473 PAwOBA .329 → .264 (−66)K% 20.5% → 26.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	20.51%	÷1.004	×1.290	—	—	26.36%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.51%	÷1.039	×0.710	—	×0.940	6.11%
HBP% /PA	0.85%	—	×0.980	—	×0.940	0.78%
Singles /BIP	25.87%	÷0.949	×0.900	×0.992	×0.940	22.87%
Doubles /BIP	5.68%	÷1.079	×0.810	×0.992	×0.940	3.98%
Triples /BIP	1.26%	÷0.977	×0.810	×0.992	×0.940	0.98%
Home runs /BIP	3.15%	÷0.839	×0.780	—	×0.940	2.76%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 68, 1B 90, 2B 116, 3B 95, K 101, BB 108 — applied at half strength. Age: age 36 vs a level average of 27.2 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (8.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.992.

Result: wOBA .329 → .264; ISO .135 → .108; BABIP .335 → .283. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2015 AAARochester Red Wings · 342 PAwOBA .294 → .245 (−49)K% 16.7% → 19.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	16.67%	÷1.030	×1.200	—	—	19.41%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.53%	÷0.980	×0.690	—	×0.940	6.97%
HBP% /PA	0.88%	—	×0.940	—	×0.940	0.78%
Singles /BIP	27.05%	÷0.979	×0.930	×0.998	×0.940	24.10%
Doubles /BIP	3.69%	÷0.987	×0.830	×0.998	×0.940	2.91%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.932	×0.970	×0.998	×0.940	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.82%	÷0.956	×0.840	—	×0.940	0.68%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 91, 1B 96, 2B 97, 3B 86, K 106, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 35 vs a level average of 27.2 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (7.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.998.

Result: wOBA .294 → .245; ISO .050 → .041; BABIP .309 → .271. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2014 AAARochester Red Wings · 466 PAwOBA .321 → .259 (−62)K% 16.7% → 20.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	16.74%	÷1.002	×1.200	—	—	20.05%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.58%	÷1.125	×0.690	—	×0.940	4.95%
HBP% /PA	1.07%	—	×0.940	—	×0.940	0.95%
Singles /BIP	24.54%	÷1.010	×0.930	×0.988	×0.940	20.98%
Doubles /BIP	7.67%	÷1.059	×0.830	×0.988	×0.940	5.58%
Triples /BIP	0.61%	÷0.900	×0.970	×0.988	×0.940	0.61%
Home runs /BIP	1.84%	÷1.075	×0.840	—	×0.940	1.35%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 115, 1B 102, 2B 112, 3B 80, K 100, BB 125 — applied at half strength. Age: age 34 vs a level average of 27.2 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (6.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.988.

Result: wOBA .321 → .259; ISO .116 → .093; BABIP .329 → .271. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2013 AAARochester Red Wings · 353 PAwOBA .333 → .284 (−49)K% 21.0% → 25.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	20.96%	÷0.987	×1.200	—	—	25.48%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.50%	÷1.026	×0.690	—	×0.942	5.38%
HBP% /PA	1.98%	—	×0.940	—	×0.942	1.76%
Singles /BIP	28.95%	÷1.040	×0.930	×1.019	×0.942	24.85%
Doubles /BIP	6.58%	÷0.977	×0.830	×1.019	×0.942	5.37%
Triples /BIP	2.19%	÷0.900	×0.970	×1.019	×0.942	2.27%
Home runs /BIP	1.32%	÷0.938	×0.840	—	×0.942	1.11%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 88, 1B 108, 2B 95, 3B 80, K 97, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 33 vs a level average of 27.2 → −5.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.019.

Result: wOBA .333 → .284; ISO .113 → .104; BABIP .377 → .324. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2012 AAAScranton/Wilkes-Barre Yankees · 208 PAwOBA .255 → .202 (−53)K% 23.6% → 28.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	23.56%	÷0.988	×1.200	—	—	28.60%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	12.98%	÷1.012	×0.690	—	×0.952	8.42%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×0.952	0.00%
Singles /BIP	20.80%	÷1.006	×0.930	×0.997	×0.952	18.24%
Doubles /BIP	7.20%	÷1.076	×0.830	×0.997	×0.952	5.27%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.926	×0.970	×0.997	×0.952	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷0.945	×0.840	—	×0.952	0.00%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 89, 1B 101, 2B 115, 3B 85, K 98, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 32 vs a level average of 27.2 → −4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.997.

Result: wOBA .255 → .202; ISO .052 → .040; BABIP .278 → .233. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2011 AAAScranton/Wilkes-Barre Yankees · 336 PAwOBA .286 → .241 (−45)K% 23.2% → 28.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	23.21%	÷0.990	×1.200	—	—	28.14%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.01%	÷1.005	×0.690	—	×0.962	7.27%
HBP% /PA	0.89%	—	×0.940	—	×0.962	0.81%
Singles /BIP	24.41%	÷0.976	×0.930	×1.009	×0.962	22.59%
Doubles /BIP	6.10%	÷0.931	×0.830	×1.009	×0.962	5.28%
Triples /BIP	1.88%	÷1.113	×0.970	×1.009	×0.962	1.59%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷0.965	×0.840	—	×0.962	0.00%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 93, 1B 95, 2B 86, 3B 123, K 98, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 31 vs a level average of 27.2 → −3.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.009.

Result: wOBA .286 → .241; ISO .072 → .062; BABIP .322 → .293. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2010 AAAIndianapolis Indians · 226 PAwOBA .271 → .229 (−42)K% 21.2% → 26.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	21.24%	÷0.967	×1.200	—	—	26.36%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.52%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×0.972	5.04%
HBP% /PA	0.44%	—	×0.940	—	×0.972	0.40%
Singles /BIP	21.71%	÷1.067	×0.930	×1.050	×0.972	19.32%
Doubles /BIP	9.21%	÷0.981	×0.830	×1.050	×0.972	7.95%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.148	×0.970	×1.050	×0.972	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.66%	÷1.048	×0.840	—	×0.972	0.51%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 110, 1B 113, 2B 96, 3B 130, K 93, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 27.2 → −2.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .271 → .229; ISO .085 → .073; BABIP .309 → .272. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).