Ed Lucas

Pos3B

B/TR/R

Born1982-05-21

Age (2027)45

No MLB projection yet. Career stats below are historical.

Overview

AAALAST SEASON 2016

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2014	32	AAA/A+2 orgs	73	.300/.400/.317	0	0	73	—	.248/.314/.264
2014	32	MLBMIA	189	.251/.283/.296	1	1	67	-0.0
2015	33	AAATEX	442	.316/.390/.420	6	3	72	—	.250/.306/.326
2016	34	AAAARI	394	.243/.309/.366	5	1	28	—	.168/.219/.245
2017	35	No MLB games played
2018	36	No MLB games played
2019	37	No MLB games played
2020	38	No MLB games played
2021	39	No MLB games played
2022	40	No MLB games played
2023	41	No MLB games played
2024	42	No MLB games played
2025	43	No MLB games played
2026	44	No MLB games played

Last 3 seasons WAR -0.0

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2005	23	A	Burlington Bees	—	474	425	124	13	3	1	40	67	2	29	10	292	355	344	699	52	345	14	8	316	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2006	24	A+	High Desert Mavericks	—	509	455	127	26	4	7	46	83	3	19	6	279	349	400	749	121	326	16	9	334	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	25	AA	Wichita Wranglers	—	135	125	35	6	1	3	9	23	0	2	1	280	328	416	744	136	323	17	7	329	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	26	AAA	Omaha Royals	—	55	47	6	0	0	0	7	14	0	0	1	128	241	128	368		182	25	13	188	-16	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	26	AA	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	—	303	270	82	10	4	4	29	47	1	14	7	304	373	415	788	111	355	16	10	352	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	27	AA	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	—	424	355	103	22	2	10	53	75	7	18	2	290	393	448	841	158	338	18	12	370	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	28	AAA	Omaha Royals	—	415	352	108	20	1	13	52	68	3	7	1	307	400	480	881	173	347	16	13	385	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	29	AAA	Gwinnett Braves	—	295	262	57	14	1	3	28	74	1	4	0	218	296	313	609	95	289	25	9	276	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	29	AA	Mississippi Braves	—	181	159	43	6	0	7	15	38	4	0	0	270	348	440	789	170	310	21	8	347	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	30	AAA	Salt Lake Bees	—	453	412	108	20	2	12	28	82	6	5	4	262	318	408	726	146	299	18	6	320	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	31	MLB	Miami Marlins	—	384	351	90	14	1	4	26	78	2	1	1	256	311	336	648	80	319	20	7	291	88	-6	-0	+6	+2	+8	1.1
2013	31	AAA	New Orleans Zephyrs	—	196	181	55	12	0	5	12	37	2	2	1	304	354	453	807	149	360	19	6	357	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	32	MLB	Miami Marlins	—	189	179	45	5	0	1	8	48	0	1	0	251	283	296	580	45	338	25	4	261	67	-7	+0	+2	+1	+4	-0.0
2014	32	AAA	New Orleans Zephyrs	—	57	46	12	1	0	0	7	10	1	0	0	261	370	283	653	22	308	18	12	296	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	32	A+	Jupiter Hammerheads	—	16	14	6	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	429	500	429	929		500	12	12	427	110	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	33	AAA	Round Rock Express	—	442	393	124	17	3	6	45	85	3	3	4	316	390	420	810	104	389	19	10	365	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	34	AAA	Reno Aces	—	394	358	87	23	3	5	32	84	2	1	0	243	309	366	675	123	303	21	8	303	28	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	573	530	135	19	1	5	34	126	2	2	1	255	302	323	625	68	325	22	6	281	76	-16	+0	+8	+3	+12	0.7
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2005	23	A MLE	Burlington Bees	—	474	438	113	11	3	1	27	91	2	29	10	258	304	304	608	46	315	19	6	264	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2006	24	A+ MLE	High Desert Mavericks	—	509	470	110	21	3	6	31	111	3	19	6	234	286	330	616	96	288	22	6	272	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	25	AA MLE	Wichita Wranglers	—	135	128	32	5	1	2	6	28	0	2	1	250	284	352	635	102	305	21	4	282	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	26	AAA MLE	Omaha Royals	—	55	50	5	0	0	0	4	18	0	0	1	100	167	100	267		167	33	7	144	-16	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	26	AA MLE	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	—	303	279	76	9	4	3	20	57	1	14	7	272	323	366	689	93	324	19	7	298	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	27	AA MLE	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	—	424	372	91	18	2	8	36	92	7	18	2	245	323	368	691	124	288	22	8	302	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	28	AAA MLE	Omaha Royals	—	415	371	94	17	1	11	33	91	3	7	1	253	319	394	713	140	296	22	8	308	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	29	AAA MLE	Gwinnett Braves	—	295	272	49	12	1	2	18	89	1	4	0	180	234	254	487	74	253	30	6	221	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	29	AA MLE	Mississippi Braves	—	181	165	38	6	0	6	9	46	4	0	0	230	287	376	662	145	268	25	5	289	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	30	AAA MLE	Salt Lake Bees	—	453	419	85	15	1	8	21	105	6	5	4	203	251	301	552	98	243	23	5	243	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	31	MLB MLE	Miami Marlins	—	384	352	92	15	1	4	25	78	2	1	1	261	314	344	658	82	319	20	7	298	88	-6	-0	+6	+2	+8	1.1
2013	31	AAA MLE	New Orleans Zephyrs	—	196	185	44	9	0	3	8	47	2	2	1	238	277	335	612	97	303	24	4	265	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	32	MLB MLE	Miami Marlins	—	189	179	46	5	0	1	8	48	0	1	0	257	289	302	590	45	338	25	4	268	67	-7	+0	+2	+1	+4	-0.0
2014	32	AAA MLE	New Orleans Zephyrs	—	57	49	11	1	0	0	4	13	1	0	0	224	296	245	541	20	270	23	7	261	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	32	A+ MLE	Jupiter Hammerheads	—	16	15	5	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	333	375	333	708		427	19	6	331	110	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	33	AAA MLE	Round Rock Express	—	442	408	102	13	3	4	30	107	3	3	4	250	306	326	632	76	322	24	7	275	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	34	AAA MLE	Reno Aces	—	394	368	62	15	2	3	22	110	2	1	0	168	219	245	464	76	229	28	6	209	28	—	—	—	—	—	—
2005	23	A MLE	Burlington Bees	—	474	438	113	11	3	1	27	91	2	29	10	258	304	304	608	46	324	19	6	264	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2005	23	A RAW	Burlington Bees	—	474	425	124	13	3	1	40	67	2	29	10	292	355	344	699	52	345	14	8	316	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2006	24	A+ MLE	High Desert Mavericks	—	509	470	110	21	3	6	31	111	3	19	6	234	286	330	616	96	292	22	6	272	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2006	24	A+ RAW	High Desert Mavericks	—	509	455	127	26	4	7	46	83	3	19	6	279	349	400	749	121	326	16	9	334	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	25	AA MLE	Wichita Wranglers	—	135	128	32	5	1	2	6	28	0	2	1	250	284	352	635	102	306	21	4	282	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	25	AA RAW	Wichita Wranglers	—	135	125	35	6	1	3	9	23	0	2	1	280	328	416	744	136	323	17	7	329	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	26	AA MLE	2 teams	—	358	329	81	9	4	3	24	75	1	14	8	246	299	325	625	79	310	21	7	274	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	26	AA RAW	2 teams	—	358	317	88	10	4	4	36	61	1	14	8	278	353	372	725	95	332	17	10	326	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	27	AA MLE	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	—	424	372	91	18	2	8	36	92	7	18	2	245	323	368	691	124	300	22	8	302	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	27	AA RAW	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	—	424	355	103	22	2	10	53	75	7	18	2	290	393	448	841	158	338	18	12	370	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	28	AAA MLE	Omaha Royals	—	415	371	94	17	1	11	33	91	3	7	1	253	319	394	713	140	305	22	8	308	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	28	AAA RAW	Omaha Royals	—	415	352	108	20	1	13	52	68	3	7	1	307	400	480	881	173	347	16	13	385	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	29	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	476	436	88	18	1	9	28	135	5	4	0	202	258	310	568	108	267	28	6	247	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	29	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	476	421	100	20	1	10	43	112	5	4	0	238	316	361	677	124	297	24	9	303	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	30	AAA MLE	Salt Lake Bees	—	453	419	85	15	1	8	21	105	6	5	4	203	251	301	552	98	249	23	5	243	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	30	AAA RAW	Salt Lake Bees	—	453	412	108	20	2	12	28	82	6	5	4	262	318	408	726	146	299	18	6	320	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	31	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	580	537	137	25	1	7	33	125	4	3	2	255	303	345	648	89	320	22	6	287	80	-14	-0	+6	+2	+13	0.7
2013	31	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	580	532	145	26	1	9	38	115	4	3	2	273	326	376	702	103	333	20	7	313	80	-14	-0	+6	+2	+13	0.7
2014	32	MLB MLE	3 teams	—	262	243	62	6	0	1	13	64	1	1	0	255	296	292	588	37	337	24	5	270	69	-10	+0	+2	+1	+6	-0.1
2014	32	MLB RAW	3 teams	—	262	239	63	6	0	1	17	60	1	1	0	264	315	301	616	38	343	23	6	279	69	-10	+0	+2	+1	+6	-0.1
2015	33	AAA MLE	Round Rock Express	—	442	408	102	13	3	4	30	107	3	3	4	250	306	326	632	76	329	24	7	275	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	33	AAA RAW	Round Rock Express	—	442	393	124	17	3	6	45	85	3	3	4	316	390	420	810	104	389	19	10	365	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	34	AAA MLE	Reno Aces	—	394	368	62	15	2	3	22	110	2	1	0	168	219	245	464	76	230	28	6	209	28	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	34	AAA RAW	Reno Aces	—	394	358	87	23	3	5	32	84	2	1	0	243	309	366	675	123	303	21	8	303	28	—	—	—	—	—	—
2005	23	A MLE	Burlington Bees	—	474	442	113	11	3	1	27	91	2	29	10	256	304	301	605	45	315	19	6	264	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2006	24	A+ MLE	High Desert Mavericks	—	509	470	110	21	3	6	31	111	3	19	6	234	286	330	616	96	288	22	6	272	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	25	AA MLE	Wichita Wranglers	—	135	128	32	5	1	2	6	28	0	2	1	250	284	352	635	102	305	21	4	282	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	26	AA MLE	2 teams	—	358	330	81	9	4	3	24	75	1	14	8	245	299	324	624	79	300	21	7	274	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	27	AA MLE	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	—	424	378	91	18	2	8	36	92	7	18	2	241	323	362	685	122	288	22	8	302	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	28	AAA MLE	Omaha Royals	—	415	376	94	17	1	11	33	91	3	7	1	250	319	388	708	138	296	22	8	308	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	29	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	476	440	88	18	1	9	28	135	5	4	0	200	258	307	565	107	259	28	6	247	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	30	AAA MLE	Salt Lake Bees	—	453	423	85	15	1	8	21	105	6	5	4	201	251	298	549	97	243	23	5	243	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	31	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	580	538	137	25	1	7	33	125	4	3	2	255	303	344	647	89	313	22	6	287	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	32	MLB MLE	3 teams	—	262	246	62	6	0	1	13	64	1	1	0	252	296	289	584	37	329	24	5	270	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	33	AAA MLE	Round Rock Express	—	442	406	102	13	3	4	30	107	3	3	4	251	306	328	634	76	322	24	7	275	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	34	AAA MLE	Reno Aces	—	394	367	62	15	2	3	22	110	2	1	0	169	219	245	465	76	229	28	6	209	28	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	573	530	135	19	1	5	34	126	2	2	1	255	302	323	625	68	325	22	6	281	68	-16	+0	+8	+3	+12	0.7
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	601	154	22	1	6	39	143	2	2	1	256	304	326	630	70	327	22	6	281	68	-18	+0	+9	+3	+14	0.8
Career	—	MLE		—	4922	4519	1057	173	22	63	304	1134	37	106	38	234	288	324	611	90	297	23	6	269	68	-16	+0	+8	+3	+12	0.7
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	597	140	23	3	8	40	150	5	14	5	235	288	323	611	89	299	23	6	269	68	-18	+0	+9	+3	+14	0.8

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2016 AAAReno Aces · 394 PAwOBA .296 → .209 (−87)K% 21.3% → 27.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	21.32%	÷0.991	×1.290	—	—	27.76%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.12%	÷0.979	×0.710	—	×0.940	5.54%
HBP% /PA	0.51%	—	×0.980	—	×0.940	0.47%
Singles /BIP	20.44%	÷1.052	×0.900	×0.982	×0.940	16.14%
Doubles /BIP	8.39%	÷1.060	×0.810	×0.982	×0.940	5.92%
Triples /BIP	1.09%	÷1.150	×0.810	×0.982	×0.940	0.71%
Home runs /BIP	1.82%	÷1.092	×0.780	—	×0.940	1.23%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 118, 1B 110, 2B 112, 3B 130, K 98, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 34 vs a level average of 27.2 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (6.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.982.

Result: wOBA .296 → .209; ISO .123 → .080; BABIP .303 → .229. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2015 AAARound Rock Express · 442 PAwOBA .357 → .275 (−82)K% 19.2% → 24.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	19.23%	÷1.031	×1.290	—	—	24.07%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.18%	÷1.014	×0.710	—	×0.942	6.72%
HBP% /PA	0.68%	—	×0.980	—	×0.942	0.63%
Singles /BIP	31.82%	÷1.007	×0.900	×1.007	×0.942	27.00%
Doubles /BIP	5.52%	÷1.029	×0.810	×1.007	×0.942	4.12%
Triples /BIP	0.97%	÷0.900	×0.810	×1.007	×0.942	0.83%
Home runs /BIP	1.95%	÷1.184	×0.780	—	×0.942	1.21%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 137, 1B 101, 2B 106, 3B 80, K 106, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 33 vs a level average of 27.2 → −5.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.007.

Result: wOBA .357 → .275; ISO .104 → .073; BABIP .389 → .322. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2014 AAANew Orleans Zephyrs · 57 PAwOBA .298 → .261 (−37)K% 17.5% → 22.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	17.54%	÷1.008	×1.290	—	—	22.45%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.53%	÷1.007	×0.710	—	×0.952	7.07%
HBP% /PA	1.75%	—	×0.980	—	×0.952	1.64%
Singles /BIP	30.56%	÷0.980	×0.900	—	×0.952	26.72%
Doubles /BIP	2.78%	÷0.923	×0.810	—	×0.952	2.32%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.810	—	×0.952	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.098	×0.780	—	×0.952	0.00%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 120, 1B 96, 2B 85, 3B 80, K 102, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 32 vs a level average of 27.2 → −4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.8 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .298 → .261; ISO .022 → .020; BABIP .308 → .270. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2014 A+Jupiter Hammerheads · 16 PAwOBA .416 → .331 (−85)K% 12.5% → 18.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	12.50%	÷0.951	×1.420	—	—	18.66%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	12.50%	÷1.079	×0.750	—	×0.940	8.17%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.930	—	×0.940	0.00%
Singles /BIP	50.00%	÷1.013	×0.920	—	×0.940	42.69%
Doubles /BIP	0.00%	÷0.944	×0.960	—	×0.940	0.00%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.914	×0.810	—	×0.940	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷0.983	×0.880	—	×0.940	0.00%

Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 97, 1B 103, 2B 89, 3B 83, K 90, BB 116 — applied at half strength. Age: age 32 vs a level average of 22.8 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (9.2 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .416 → .331; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .500 → .427. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2013 AAANew Orleans Zephyrs · 196 PAwOBA .348 → .265 (−82)K% 18.9% → 24.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	18.88%	÷1.009	×1.290	—	—	24.14%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	6.12%	÷0.963	×0.710	—	×0.962	4.34%
HBP% /PA	1.02%	—	×0.980	—	×0.962	0.96%
Singles /BIP	26.39%	÷0.987	×0.900	×0.994	×0.962	23.02%
Doubles /BIP	8.33%	÷0.959	×0.810	×0.994	×0.962	6.73%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.936	×0.810	×0.994	×0.962	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	3.47%	÷1.400	×0.780	—	×0.962	1.86%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 180, 1B 97, 2B 92, 3B 87, K 102, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 31 vs a level average of 27.2 → −3.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.994.

Result: wOBA .348 → .265; ISO .149 → .094; BABIP .360 → .303. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2012 AAASalt Lake Bees · 453 PAwOBA .313 → .243 (−70)K% 18.1% → 23.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	18.10%	÷1.005	×1.290	—	—	23.23%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	6.18%	÷0.914	×0.710	—	×0.972	4.67%
HBP% /PA	1.32%	—	×0.980	—	×0.972	1.26%
Singles /BIP	22.42%	÷1.029	×0.900	×0.990	×0.972	18.88%
Doubles /BIP	6.06%	÷1.022	×0.810	×0.990	×0.972	4.63%
Triples /BIP	0.61%	÷1.150	×0.810	×0.990	×0.972	0.41%
Home runs /BIP	3.64%	÷1.053	×0.780	—	×0.972	2.62%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 111, 1B 106, 2B 104, 3B 130, K 101, BB 83 — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 27.2 → −2.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.990.

Result: wOBA .313 → .243; ISO .146 → .104; BABIP .299 → .243. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2011 AAAGwinnett Braves · 295 PAwOBA .268 → .221 (−47)K% 25.1% → 30.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	25.08%	÷1.002	×1.200	—	—	30.06%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.81%	÷0.970	×0.690	—	×0.982	6.16%
HBP% /PA	0.34%	—	×0.940	—	×0.982	0.31%
Singles /BIP	20.74%	÷0.999	×0.930	×0.968	×0.982	18.37%
Doubles /BIP	7.45%	÷0.923	×0.830	×0.968	×0.982	6.37%
Triples /BIP	0.53%	÷1.003	×0.970	×0.968	×0.982	0.49%
Home runs /BIP	1.60%	÷1.055	×0.840	—	×0.982	1.25%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 111, 1B 100, 2B 85, 3B 101, K 100, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.968.

Result: wOBA .268 → .221; ISO .095 → .079; BABIP .289 → .253. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2011 AAMississippi Braves · 181 PAwOBA .340 → .289 (−51)K% 21.0% → 25.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	20.99%	÷1.000	×1.220	—	—	25.61%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.73%	÷0.978	×0.680	—	×0.958	5.15%
HBP% /PA	2.21%	—	×0.840	—	×0.958	1.78%
Singles /BIP	24.79%	÷1.040	×0.920	×1.004	×0.958	21.11%
Doubles /BIP	4.96%	÷0.923	×0.910	×1.004	×0.958	4.70%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.978	×0.880	×1.004	×0.958	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	5.79%	÷0.844	×0.800	—	×0.958	5.25%

Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 69, 1B 108, 2B 85, 3B 96, K 100, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 24.8 → −4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.004.

Result: wOBA .340 → .289; ISO .170 → .157; BABIP .310 → .268. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).