Chris Dickerson

PosLF

B/TL/L

Born1982-04-10

Age (2027)45

No MLB projection yet. Career stats below are historical.

Overview

AAALAST SEASON 2017

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2015	33	AAATOR	161	.270/.356/.340	1	10	67	—	.242/.294/.302
2016	34	AABowie Baysox	65	.322/.385/.610	3	2	105	—	.262/.308/.475
2017	35	AAABAL	337	.244/.365/.396	7	7	71	—	.197/.288/.314

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2005	23	A+	Sarasota Reds	—	505	436	104	17	7	12	53	124	6	19	3	239	329	392	721	154	304	25	10	319	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2006	24	AA	Chattanooga Lookouts	—	465	389	94	21	7	12	65	129	5	21	6	242	357	424	781	183	327	28	14	347	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	25	AAA	Louisville Bats	—	416	354	92	11	6	13	52	131	5	23	5	260	363	435	798	175	373	31	12	353	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	25	AA	Chattanooga Lookouts	—	123	114	31	4	1	1	7	31	2	7	2	272	325	351	676	79	366	25	6	307	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	26	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	—	122	102	31	9	2	6	17	35	2	5	3	304	413	608	1.021	304	410	29	14	437	182	+12	-0	-0	-6	+3	0.8
2008	26	AAA	Louisville Bats	—	414	349	100	16	9	11	54	102	3	26	7	287	387	479	865	192	372	25	13	376	107	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	27	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	—	299	255	70	13	3	2	39	66	1	11	3	275	373	373	745	98	360	22	13	337	112	+4	+1	+7	-3	+6	1.6
2009	27	AAA	Louisville Bats	—	15	12	3	0	0	0	3	4	0	2	0	250	400	250	650		375	27	20	321	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	28	MLB	Milwaukee Brewers	—	106	97	20	2	2	0	6	34	0	4	0	206	252	268	520	62	312	32	6	231	44	-7	+1	+3	+1	+2	-0.0
2010	28	AAA	Louisville Bats	—	56	43	19	5	0	3	9	13	0	6	1	442	528	767	1.296	326	571	23	16	516	204	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	29	MLB	New York Yankees	—	55	50	13	2	0	1	2	17	1	4	0	260	302	360	662	100	364	31	4	288	80	-1	+1	+1	-3	+1	-0.1
2011	29	AAA	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Yankees	—	248	212	51	10	1	2	30	63	3	18	4	241	341	325	667	85	331	25	12	307	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	30	MLB	New York Yankees	—	17	14	4	0	0	2	3	5	0	3	0	286	412	714	1.126	429	286	29	18	474	197	+2	+1	-0	-4	+0	-0.1
2012	30	AAA	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Yankees	—	321	266	84	24	4	7	49	73	1	17	3	316	424	515	939	199	403	23	15	408	108	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	31	MLB	Baltimore Orioles	—	109	105	25	5	0	4	4	36	0	5	1	238	266	400	666	162	323	33	4	294	80	-3	+1	+2	-3	+2	-0.0
2013	31	AAA	Norfolk Tides	—	160	136	33	7	2	2	21	35	2	1	1	243	352	368	720	125	310	22	13	328	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	32	MLB	Cleveland Indians	—	112	98	22	4	0	2	12	38	0	3	0	224	309	327	636	102	345	34	11	287	80	-3	+1	-2	-4	+2	-0.6
2014	32	AAA	Indianapolis Indians	—	280	236	73	15	2	7	33	65	8	12	5	309	412	479	890	169	395	23	12	394	102	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	33	AAA	Buffalo Bisons	—	161	141	38	7	0	1	19	35	0	10	2	270	356	340	697	71	349	22	12	320	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	34	AA	Bowie Baysox	—	65	59	19	4	2	3	6	16	0	2	0	322	385	610	995	288	400	25	9	428	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	35	AAA	Norfolk Tides	—	337	283	69	14	4	7	49	90	5	7	2	244	365	396	761	152	333	27	15	346	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	820	721	185	35	7	17	83	231	4	35	7	257	337	395	732	139	352	28	10	325	106	+6	+4	+11	-22	+18	1.7
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2005	23	A+ MLE	Sarasota Reds	—	505	451	88	15	5	10	38	176	6	19	3	195	267	317	584	122	282	35	8	256	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2006	24	AA MLE	Chattanooga Lookouts	—	465	412	87	20	6	10	42	157	5	21	6	211	292	362	654	150	305	34	9	287	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	25	AAA MLE	Louisville Bats	—	416	372	87	10	6	11	34	157	5	23	5	234	307	382	688	148	361	38	8	302	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	25	AA MLE	Chattanooga Lookouts	—	123	117	29	4	1	1	4	38	2	7	2	248	285	325	609	77	351	31	3	260	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	26	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	122	102	31	9	2	6	17	35	2	5	3	304	413	608	1.021	304	410	29	14	437	182	+12	-0	-0	-6	+3	0.8
2008	26	AAA MLE	Louisville Bats	—	414	367	96	14	9	10	36	123	3	26	7	262	333	431	763	169	349	30	9	326	107	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	27	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	299	256	70	13	3	2	38	66	1	11	3	273	369	371	741	98	360	22	13	334	112	+4	+1	+7	-3	+6	1.6
2009	27	AAA MLE	Louisville Bats	—	15	13	3	0	0	0	2	5	0	2	0	231	333	231	564		350	33	13	262	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	28	MLB MLE	Milwaukee Brewers	—	106	97	20	2	2	0	6	34	0	4	0	206	252	268	520	62	312	32	6	234	44	-7	+1	+3	+1	+2	-0.0
2010	28	AAA MLE	Louisville Bats	—	56	46	19	5	0	3	7	16	0	6	1	413	491	717	1.208	304	516	29	12	469	204	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	29	MLB MLE	New York Yankees	—	55	50	13	2	0	1	2	17	1	4	0	260	302	360	662	100	364	31	4	286	80	-1	+1	+1	-3	+1	-0.1
2011	29	AAA MLE	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Yankees	—	248	223	49	9	1	2	20	76	3	18	4	220	293	296	589	76	316	31	8	261	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	30	MLB MLE	New York Yankees	—	17	14	4	0	0	2	3	5	0	3	0	286	412	714	1.126	429	286	29	18	459	197	+2	+1	-0	-4	+0	-0.1
2012	30	AAA MLE	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Yankees	—	321	283	72	18	4	6	32	89	1	17	3	254	332	410	742	155	336	28	10	328	108	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	31	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	—	109	105	25	5	0	4	4	36	0	5	1	238	266	400	666	162	323	33	4	286	80	-3	+1	+2	-3	+2	-0.0
2013	31	AAA MLE	Norfolk Tides	—	160	144	30	6	2	2	13	43	2	1	1	208	283	319	602	111	274	27	8	263	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	32	MLB MLE	Cleveland Indians	—	112	98	22	4	0	2	12	38	0	3	0	224	309	327	636	102	345	34	11	286	80	-3	+1	-2	-4	+2	-0.6
2014	32	AAA MLE	Indianapolis Indians	—	280	247	63	13	2	7	22	81	8	12	5	255	336	409	745	154	331	29	8	319	102	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	33	AAA MLE	Buffalo Bisons	—	161	149	36	6	0	1	11	42	0	10	2	242	294	302	596	60	322	26	7	267	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	34	AA MLE	Bowie Baysox	—	65	61	16	3	2	2	4	20	0	2	0	262	308	475	783	213	348	31	6	324	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	35	AAA MLE	Norfolk Tides	—	337	299	59	11	3	6	33	109	5	7	2	197	288	314	602	117	290	32	10	273	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2005	23	A+ MLE	Sarasota Reds	—	505	451	88	15	5	10	38	176	6	19	3	195	267	317	584	122	291	35	8	256	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2005	23	A+ RAW	Sarasota Reds	—	505	436	104	17	7	12	53	124	6	19	3	239	329	392	721	154	304	25	10	319	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2006	24	AA MLE	Chattanooga Lookouts	—	465	412	87	20	6	10	42	157	5	21	6	211	292	362	654	150	310	34	9	287	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2006	24	AA RAW	Chattanooga Lookouts	—	465	389	94	21	7	12	65	129	5	21	6	242	357	424	781	183	327	28	14	347	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	25	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	539	489	115	13	7	12	38	195	7	30	7	235	300	364	664	129	363	36	7	292	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	25	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	539	468	123	15	7	14	59	162	7	30	7	263	354	415	768	152	371	30	11	343	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	26	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	536	469	127	23	11	16	53	158	5	31	10	271	351	469	820	198	372	29	10	351	124	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	26	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	536	451	131	25	11	17	71	137	5	31	10	290	393	508	901	217	380	26	13	390	124	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	27	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	314	269	73	13	3	2	40	71	1	13	3	271	368	364	732	93	359	23	13	331	110	+4	+1	+7	-3	+7	1.6
2009	27	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	314	267	73	13	3	2	42	70	1	13	3	273	374	367	741	94	360	22	13	336	110	+4	+1	+7	-3	+7	1.6
2010	28	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	162	143	39	7	2	3	13	50	0	10	1	273	333	413	746	140	391	31	8	315	99	-0	+2	+3	+1	+4	0.9
2010	28	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	162	140	39	7	2	3	15	47	0	10	1	279	346	421	768	143	391	29	9	329	99	-0	+2	+3	+1	+4	0.9
2011	29	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	303	273	62	11	1	3	22	93	4	22	4	227	294	308	602	81	330	31	7	266	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	29	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	303	262	64	12	1	3	32	80	4	22	4	244	334	332	667	88	337	26	11	304	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	30	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	338	297	76	18	4	8	35	94	1	20	3	256	336	424	761	168	340	28	10	335	113	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	30	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	338	280	88	24	4	9	52	78	1	20	3	314	423	525	948	211	399	23	15	412	113	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	31	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	269	249	54	11	2	5	17	79	2	6	2	217	272	337	610	120	295	29	6	272	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	31	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	269	241	58	12	2	6	25	71	2	6	2	241	317	382	699	141	315	26	9	314	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	32	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	392	345	85	17	2	9	34	119	8	15	5	246	328	386	714	139	345	30	9	310	96	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	32	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	392	334	95	19	2	9	45	103	8	15	5	284	382	434	817	150	382	26	11	363	96	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	33	AAA MLE	Buffalo Bisons	—	161	149	36	6	0	1	11	42	0	10	2	242	294	302	596	60	327	26	7	267	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	33	AAA RAW	Buffalo Bisons	—	161	141	38	7	0	1	19	35	0	10	2	270	356	340	697	71	349	22	12	320	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	34	AA MLE	Bowie Baysox	—	65	61	16	3	2	2	4	20	0	2	0	262	308	475	783	213	359	31	6	324	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	34	AA RAW	Bowie Baysox	—	65	59	19	4	2	3	6	16	0	2	0	322	385	610	995	288	400	25	9	428	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	35	AAA MLE	Norfolk Tides	—	337	299	59	11	3	6	33	109	5	7	2	197	288	314	602	117	288	32	10	273	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	35	AAA RAW	Norfolk Tides	—	337	283	69	14	4	7	49	90	5	7	2	244	365	396	761	152	333	27	15	346	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2005	23	A+ MLE	Sarasota Reds	—	505	456	88	15	5	10	38	176	6	19	3	193	267	314	580	121	282	35	8	256	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2006	24	AA MLE	Chattanooga Lookouts	—	465	415	87	20	6	10	42	157	5	21	6	210	292	359	651	149	305	34	9	287	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	25	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	539	489	115	13	7	12	38	195	7	30	7	235	300	364	664	129	359	36	7	292	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	26	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	536	473	127	23	11	16	53	158	5	31	10	268	351	465	816	197	363	29	10	351	124	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	27	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	314	270	73	13	3	2	40	71	1	13	3	270	368	363	731	93	359	23	13	331	110	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	28	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	162	148	39	7	2	3	13	50	0	10	1	264	333	399	732	135	383	31	8	315	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	29	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	303	274	62	11	1	3	22	93	4	22	4	226	294	307	601	80	325	31	7	266	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	30	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	338	299	76	18	4	8	35	94	1	20	3	254	336	421	758	167	333	28	10	335	113	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	31	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	269	248	54	11	2	5	17	79	2	6	2	218	272	339	611	121	294	29	6	272	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	32	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	392	347	85	17	2	9	34	119	8	15	5	245	328	383	711	138	335	30	9	310	96	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	33	AAA MLE	Buffalo Bisons	—	161	149	36	6	0	1	11	42	0	10	2	242	294	302	596	60	322	26	7	267	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	34	AA MLE	Bowie Baysox	—	65	61	16	3	2	2	4	20	0	2	0	262	308	475	783	213	348	31	6	324	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	35	AAA MLE	Norfolk Tides	—	337	296	59	11	3	6	33	109	5	7	2	199	288	318	605	118	290	32	10	273	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	820	721	185	35	7	17	83	231	4	35	7	257	337	395	732	139	352	28	10	325	88	+6	+4	+11	-22	+18	1.7
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	572	147	28	6	13	66	183	3	28	6	257	337	395	732	138	354	28	10	325	88	+5	+3	+9	-18	+14	1.3
Career	—	MLE		—	4386	3906	917	168	48	87	380	1363	44	206	48	235	310	369	679	134	334	31	9	298	88	+6	+4	+11	-22	+18	1.7
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	579	136	25	7	13	56	202	7	31	7	235	310	370	680	135	334	31	9	298	88	+5	+3	+9	-18	+14	1.3

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2017 AAANorfolk Tides · 337 PAwOBA .337 → .273 (−63)K% 26.7% → 32.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	26.71%	÷0.995	×1.200	—	—	32.22%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	14.24%	÷0.948	×0.690	—	×0.940	9.74%
HBP% /PA	1.48%	—	×0.940	—	×0.940	1.31%
Singles /BIP	22.80%	÷0.989	×0.930	×1.020	×0.940	20.55%
Doubles /BIP	7.25%	÷1.001	×0.830	×1.020	×0.940	5.77%
Triples /BIP	2.07%	÷1.150	×0.970	×1.020	×0.940	1.68%
Home runs /BIP	3.63%	÷0.866	×0.840	—	×0.940	3.31%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 73, 1B 98, 2B 100, 3B 130, K 99, BB 90 — applied at half strength. Age: age 35 vs a level average of 27.2 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (7.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.020.

Result: wOBA .337 → .273; ISO .152 → .129; BABIP .333 → .290. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 AABowie Baysox · 65 PAwOBA .416 → .324 (−93)K% 24.6% → 30.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	24.62%	÷0.984	×1.220	—	—	30.51%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.23%	÷1.084	×0.700	—	×0.940	5.60%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.850	—	×0.940	0.00%
Singles /BIP	23.26%	÷0.992	×0.970	—	×0.940	21.38%
Doubles /BIP	9.30%	÷1.053	×0.860	—	×0.940	7.14%
Triples /BIP	4.65%	÷0.900	×0.950	—	×0.940	4.61%
Home runs /BIP	6.98%	÷1.057	×0.780	—	×0.940	4.84%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 111, 1B 98, 2B 111, 3B 80, K 97, BB 117 — applied at half strength. Age: age 34 vs a level average of 24.8 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (9.2 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .416 → .324; ISO .288 → .217; BABIP .400 → .348. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2015 AAABuffalo Bisons · 161 PAwOBA .312 → .267 (−45)K% 21.7% → 25.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	21.74%	÷1.008	×1.200	—	—	25.89%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.18%	÷1.040	×0.690	—	×0.942	6.99%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×0.942	0.00%
Singles /BIP	28.30%	÷0.981	×0.930	×1.050	×0.942	26.53%
Doubles /BIP	6.60%	÷0.944	×0.830	×1.050	×0.942	5.75%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.970	×1.050	×0.942	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.94%	÷0.966	×0.840	—	×0.942	0.77%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 93, 1B 96, 2B 89, 3B 80, K 102, BB 108 — applied at half strength. Age: age 33 vs a level average of 27.2 → −5.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .312 → .267; ISO .071 → .062; BABIP .349 → .322. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2014 AAAIndianapolis Indians · 280 PAwOBA .387 → .319 (−68)K% 23.2% → 28.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	23.21%	÷0.968	×1.200	—	—	28.77%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.43%	÷0.944	×0.690	—	×0.952	7.96%
HBP% /PA	2.86%	—	×0.940	—	×0.952	2.56%
Singles /BIP	28.65%	÷1.068	×0.930	×1.010	×0.952	23.99%
Doubles /BIP	8.77%	÷0.932	×0.830	×1.010	×0.952	7.51%
Triples /BIP	1.17%	÷1.150	×0.970	×1.010	×0.952	0.95%
Home runs /BIP	4.09%	÷0.854	×0.840	—	×0.952	3.84%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 71, 1B 114, 2B 86, 3B 130, K 94, BB 89 — applied at half strength. Age: age 32 vs a level average of 27.2 → −4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.010.

Result: wOBA .387 → .319; ISO .169 → .151; BABIP .395 → .331. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2013 AAANorfolk Tides · 160 PAwOBA .319 → .263 (−56)K% 21.9% → 27.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	21.88%	÷0.967	×1.200	—	—	27.15%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	12.50%	÷1.001	×0.690	—	×0.962	8.29%
HBP% /PA	1.25%	—	×0.940	—	×0.962	1.13%
Singles /BIP	21.78%	÷0.970	×0.930	×0.977	×0.962	19.63%
Doubles /BIP	6.93%	÷0.956	×0.830	×0.977	×0.962	5.65%
Triples /BIP	1.98%	÷0.900	×0.970	×0.977	×0.962	2.01%
Home runs /BIP	1.98%	÷1.006	×0.840	—	×0.962	1.59%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 101, 1B 94, 2B 91, 3B 80, K 93, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 31 vs a level average of 27.2 → −3.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.977.

Result: wOBA .319 → .263; ISO .125 → .108; BABIP .310 → .274. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2012 AAAScranton/Wilkes-Barre Yankees · 321 PAwOBA .405 → .328 (−77)K% 22.7% → 27.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	22.74%	÷0.988	×1.200	—	—	27.61%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	15.26%	÷1.012	×0.690	—	×0.972	10.11%
HBP% /PA	0.31%	—	×0.940	—	×0.972	0.28%
Singles /BIP	25.39%	÷1.006	×0.930	×0.976	×0.972	22.26%
Doubles /BIP	12.44%	÷1.076	×0.830	×0.976	×0.972	9.10%
Triples /BIP	2.07%	÷0.926	×0.970	×0.976	×0.972	2.06%
Home runs /BIP	3.63%	÷0.945	×0.840	—	×0.972	3.14%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 89, 1B 101, 2B 115, 3B 85, K 98, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 27.2 → −2.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.976.

Result: wOBA .405 → .328; ISO .199 → .169; BABIP .403 → .336. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2011 AAAScranton/Wilkes-Barre Yankees · 248 PAwOBA .301 → .261 (−40)K% 25.4% → 30.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	25.40%	÷0.990	×1.200	—	—	30.79%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	12.10%	÷1.005	×0.690	—	×0.982	8.15%
HBP% /PA	1.21%	—	×0.940	—	×0.982	1.12%
Singles /BIP	25.50%	÷0.976	×0.930	×1.039	×0.982	24.79%
Doubles /BIP	6.71%	÷0.931	×0.830	×1.039	×0.982	6.10%
Triples /BIP	0.67%	÷1.113	×0.970	×1.039	×0.982	0.60%
Home runs /BIP	1.34%	÷0.965	×0.840	—	×0.982	1.15%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 93, 1B 95, 2B 86, 3B 123, K 98, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.039.

Result: wOBA .301 → .261; ISO .085 → .075; BABIP .331 → .316. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2010 AAALouisville Bats · 56 PAwOBA .511 → .469 (−42)K% 23.2% → 29.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	23.21%	÷0.952	×1.200	—	—	29.26%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	16.07%	÷0.942	×0.690	—	×0.992	11.68%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×0.992	0.00%
Singles /BIP	36.67%	÷1.018	×0.930	—	×0.992	33.22%
Doubles /BIP	16.67%	÷0.858	×0.830	—	×0.992	15.99%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.970	—	×0.992	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	10.00%	÷1.093	×0.840	—	×0.992	7.62%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 119, 1B 104, 2B 72, 3B 130, K 90, BB 88 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .511 → .469; ISO .326 → .299; BABIP .571 → .516. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).