Seth Loman
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013 | 27 | AAA/AA2 orgs | 374 | .247/.355/.440 | 14 | 0 | 78 | — | .206/.292/.360 |
| 2014 | 28 | AAMississippi B… | 359 | .261/.338/.437 | 12 | 4 | 76 | — | .219/.276/.371 |
| 2015 | 29 | AAMississippi B… | 197 | .199/.294/.304 | 4 | 1 | 40 | — | .166/.247/.263 |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2006 | 20 | ROK | AZL Angels | — | 171 | 141 | 29 | 11 | 1 | 4 | 23 | 49 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 206 | 337 | 383 | 720 | 177 | 278 | 29 | 13 | 325 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2007 | 21 | ROK | AZL Angels | — | 199 | 155 | 50 | 15 | 1 | 9 | 29 | 69 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 323 | 467 | 606 | 1.073 | 284 | 519 | 35 | 15 | 462 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 23 | A+ | Winston-Salem Dash | — | 320 | 286 | 75 | 18 | 0 | 15 | 17 | 85 | 15 | 0 | 1 | 262 | 336 | 483 | 819 | 220 | 321 | 27 | 5 | 360 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 23 | A | Kannapolis Intimidators | — | 114 | 99 | 30 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 6 | 29 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 303 | 389 | 626 | 1.016 | 323 | 349 | 25 | 5 | 435 | 105 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 24 | A+ | Winston-Salem Dash | — | 588 | 514 | 150 | 33 | 3 | 25 | 43 | 127 | 30 | 0 | 2 | 292 | 380 | 514 | 894 | 222 | 344 | 22 | 7 | 394 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 25 | AA | Birmingham Barons | — | 497 | 428 | 117 | 24 | 0 | 19 | 43 | 122 | 24 | 5 | 1 | 273 | 372 | 463 | 834 | 189 | 339 | 25 | 9 | 372 | 102 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 26 | AA | Birmingham Barons | — | 473 | 413 | 114 | 21 | 3 | 16 | 45 | 90 | 13 | 0 | 2 | 276 | 365 | 458 | 823 | 182 | 317 | 19 | 10 | 366 | 95 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 27 | AAA | Charlotte Knights | — | 154 | 121 | 27 | 6 | 0 | 8 | 18 | 49 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 223 | 390 | 471 | 861 | 248 | 297 | 32 | 12 | 388 | 101 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 27 | AA | Bowie Baysox | — | 220 | 195 | 51 | 13 | 0 | 6 | 14 | 57 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 262 | 330 | 421 | 751 | 159 | 331 | 26 | 6 | 329 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 28 | AA | Mississippi Braves | — | 359 | 318 | 83 | 20 | 0 | 12 | 25 | 77 | 12 | 4 | 0 | 261 | 338 | 437 | 775 | 176 | 305 | 21 | 7 | 343 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 29 | AA | Mississippi Braves | — | 197 | 171 | 34 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 13 | 46 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 199 | 294 | 304 | 598 | 105 | 242 | 23 | 7 | 275 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2006 | 20 | ROK MLE | AZL Angels | — | 171 | 150 | 21 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 71 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 140 | 237 | 260 | 497 | 120 | 210 | 42 | 8 | 213 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2007 | 21 | ROK MLE | AZL Angels | — | 199 | 167 | 32 | 9 | 1 | 6 | 17 | 99 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 192 | 315 | 365 | 680 | 174 | 364 | 50 | 9 | 285 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 23 | A+ MLE | Winston-Salem Dash | — | 320 | 293 | 60 | 13 | 0 | 12 | 10 | 121 | 15 | 0 | 1 | 205 | 267 | 372 | 639 | 167 | 292 | 38 | 3 | 274 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 23 | A MLE | Kannapolis Intimidators | — | 114 | 102 | 24 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 39 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 235 | 310 | 480 | 790 | 245 | 288 | 34 | 3 | 324 | 105 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 24 | A+ MLE | Winston-Salem Dash | — | 588 | 533 | 122 | 26 | 2 | 18 | 24 | 190 | 30 | 0 | 2 | 229 | 300 | 386 | 686 | 158 | 311 | 32 | 4 | 295 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 25 | AA MLE | Birmingham Barons | — | 497 | 445 | 110 | 22 | 0 | 17 | 26 | 146 | 24 | 5 | 1 | 247 | 323 | 411 | 734 | 164 | 322 | 29 | 5 | 319 | 102 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 26 | AA MLE | Birmingham Barons | — | 473 | 429 | 103 | 19 | 3 | 15 | 29 | 110 | 13 | 0 | 2 | 240 | 308 | 403 | 711 | 163 | 285 | 23 | 6 | 309 | 95 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 27 | AAA MLE | Charlotte Knights | — | 154 | 128 | 24 | 5 | 0 | 7 | 11 | 57 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 188 | 325 | 391 | 715 | 203 | 260 | 37 | 7 | 317 | 101 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 27 | AA MLE | Bowie Baysox | — | 220 | 201 | 44 | 12 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 70 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 219 | 270 | 338 | 608 | 119 | 289 | 32 | 4 | 260 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 28 | AA MLE | Mississippi Braves | — | 359 | 329 | 72 | 17 | 0 | 11 | 14 | 96 | 12 | 4 | 0 | 219 | 276 | 371 | 647 | 152 | 263 | 27 | 4 | 281 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 29 | AA MLE | Mississippi Braves | — | 197 | 175 | 29 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 9 | 54 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 166 | 247 | 263 | 510 | 97 | 205 | 27 | 5 | 227 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2006 | 20 | ROK MLE | AZL Angels | — | 171 | 150 | 21 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 71 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 140 | 237 | 260 | 497 | 120 | 231 | 42 | 8 | 213 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2006 | 20 | ROK RAW | AZL Angels | — | 171 | 141 | 29 | 11 | 1 | 4 | 23 | 49 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 206 | 337 | 383 | 720 | 177 | 278 | 29 | 13 | 325 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2007 | 21 | ROK MLE | AZL Angels | — | 199 | 167 | 32 | 9 | 1 | 6 | 17 | 99 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 192 | 315 | 365 | 680 | 174 | 406 | 50 | 9 | 285 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2007 | 21 | ROK RAW | AZL Angels | — | 199 | 155 | 50 | 15 | 1 | 9 | 29 | 69 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 323 | 467 | 606 | 1.073 | 284 | 519 | 35 | 15 | 462 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 23 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 434 | 395 | 84 | 16 | 2 | 18 | 13 | 160 | 23 | 0 | 1 | 213 | 278 | 400 | 678 | 187 | 301 | 37 | 3 | 287 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 23 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 434 | 385 | 105 | 22 | 2 | 23 | 23 | 114 | 23 | 0 | 1 | 273 | 350 | 519 | 870 | 247 | 328 | 26 | 5 | 380 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 24 | A+ MLE | Winston-Salem Dash | — | 588 | 533 | 122 | 26 | 2 | 18 | 24 | 190 | 30 | 0 | 2 | 229 | 300 | 386 | 686 | 158 | 319 | 32 | 4 | 295 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 24 | A+ RAW | Winston-Salem Dash | — | 588 | 514 | 150 | 33 | 3 | 25 | 43 | 127 | 30 | 0 | 2 | 292 | 380 | 514 | 894 | 222 | 344 | 22 | 7 | 394 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 25 | AA MLE | Birmingham Barons | — | 497 | 445 | 110 | 22 | 0 | 17 | 26 | 146 | 24 | 5 | 1 | 247 | 323 | 411 | 734 | 164 | 327 | 29 | 5 | 319 | 102 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 25 | AA RAW | Birmingham Barons | — | 497 | 428 | 117 | 24 | 0 | 19 | 43 | 122 | 24 | 5 | 1 | 273 | 372 | 463 | 834 | 189 | 339 | 25 | 9 | 372 | 102 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 26 | AA MLE | Birmingham Barons | — | 473 | 429 | 103 | 19 | 3 | 15 | 29 | 110 | 13 | 0 | 2 | 240 | 308 | 403 | 711 | 163 | 288 | 23 | 6 | 309 | 95 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 26 | AA RAW | Birmingham Barons | — | 473 | 413 | 114 | 21 | 3 | 16 | 45 | 90 | 13 | 0 | 2 | 276 | 365 | 458 | 823 | 182 | 317 | 19 | 10 | 366 | 95 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 27 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 374 | 329 | 68 | 17 | 0 | 11 | 19 | 128 | 21 | 0 | 0 | 207 | 293 | 359 | 651 | 152 | 294 | 34 | 5 | 283 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 27 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 374 | 316 | 78 | 19 | 0 | 14 | 32 | 106 | 21 | 0 | 0 | 247 | 355 | 440 | 795 | 193 | 320 | 28 | 9 | 353 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 28 | AA MLE | Mississippi Braves | — | 359 | 329 | 72 | 17 | 0 | 11 | 14 | 96 | 12 | 4 | 0 | 219 | 276 | 371 | 647 | 152 | 270 | 27 | 4 | 281 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 28 | AA RAW | Mississippi Braves | — | 359 | 318 | 83 | 20 | 0 | 12 | 25 | 77 | 12 | 4 | 0 | 261 | 338 | 437 | 775 | 176 | 305 | 21 | 7 | 343 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 29 | AA MLE | Mississippi Braves | — | 197 | 175 | 29 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 9 | 54 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 166 | 247 | 263 | 510 | 97 | 208 | 27 | 5 | 227 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 29 | AA RAW | Mississippi Braves | — | 197 | 171 | 34 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 13 | 46 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 199 | 294 | 304 | 598 | 105 | 242 | 23 | 7 | 275 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2006 | 20 | ROK MLE | AZL Angels | — | 171 | 150 | 21 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 71 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 140 | 237 | 260 | 497 | 120 | 210 | 42 | 8 | 213 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2007 | 21 | ROK MLE | AZL Angels | — | 199 | 167 | 32 | 9 | 1 | 6 | 17 | 99 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 192 | 315 | 365 | 680 | 174 | 364 | 50 | 9 | 285 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 23 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 434 | 395 | 84 | 16 | 2 | 18 | 13 | 160 | 23 | 0 | 1 | 213 | 278 | 400 | 678 | 187 | 291 | 37 | 3 | 287 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 24 | A+ MLE | Winston-Salem Dash | — | 588 | 529 | 122 | 26 | 2 | 18 | 24 | 190 | 30 | 0 | 2 | 231 | 300 | 389 | 689 | 159 | 311 | 32 | 4 | 295 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 25 | AA MLE | Birmingham Barons | — | 497 | 444 | 110 | 22 | 0 | 17 | 26 | 146 | 24 | 5 | 1 | 248 | 323 | 412 | 735 | 164 | 322 | 29 | 5 | 319 | 102 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 26 | AA MLE | Birmingham Barons | — | 473 | 428 | 103 | 19 | 3 | 15 | 29 | 110 | 13 | 0 | 2 | 241 | 308 | 404 | 712 | 164 | 285 | 23 | 6 | 309 | 95 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 27 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 374 | 331 | 68 | 17 | 0 | 11 | 19 | 128 | 21 | 0 | 0 | 205 | 293 | 356 | 649 | 151 | 277 | 34 | 5 | 283 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 28 | AA MLE | Mississippi Braves | — | 359 | 330 | 72 | 17 | 0 | 11 | 14 | 96 | 12 | 4 | 0 | 218 | 276 | 370 | 646 | 152 | 263 | 27 | 4 | 281 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 29 | AA MLE | Mississippi Braves | — | 197 | 176 | 29 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 9 | 54 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 165 | 247 | 261 | 509 | 97 | 205 | 27 | 5 | 227 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | MLE | — | 3292 | 2952 | 641 | 138 | 9 | 103 | 165 | 1054 | 151 | 10 | 6 | 217 | 293 | 375 | 668 | 158 | 296 | 32 | 5 | 288 | 81 | -75 | -0 | +0 | -59 | +71 | -6.4 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 583 | 126 | 27 | 2 | 20 | 33 | 208 | 30 | 2 | 1 | 216 | 293 | 372 | 665 | 156 | 295 | 32 | 5 | 288 | 81 | -15 | +0 | +0 | -12 | +14 | -1.3 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2015 AAMississippi Braves · 197 PAwOBA .272 → .227 (−45)K% 23.4% → 27.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.35% | ÷1.031 | ×1.220 | — | — | 27.63% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.60% | ÷0.965 | ×0.680 | — | ×0.948 | 4.41% |
| HBP% /PA | 5.08% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×0.948 | 4.04% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.20% | ÷1.019 | ×0.920 | ×0.974 | ×0.948 | 16.00% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.80% | ÷0.927 | ×0.910 | ×0.974 | ×0.948 | 4.35% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.005 | ×0.880 | ×0.974 | ×0.948 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.20% | ÷0.784 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.948 | 3.10% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 57, 1B 104, 2B 85, 3B 101, K 106, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 24.8 → −5.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.974.
Result: wOBA .272 → .227; ISO .105 → .100; BABIP .242 → .205. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2014 AAMississippi Braves · 359 PAwOBA .334 → .281 (−53)K% 21.4% → 26.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.45% | ÷0.975 | ×1.220 | — | — | 26.83% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.13% | ÷1.056 | ×0.680 | — | ×0.958 | 3.78% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.34% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×0.958 | 2.69% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.16% | ÷1.030 | ×0.920 | ×1.010 | ×0.958 | 18.29% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.30% | ÷1.015 | ×0.910 | ×1.010 | ×0.958 | 7.20% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.004 | ×0.880 | ×1.010 | ×0.958 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.98% | ÷0.813 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.958 | 4.69% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 63, 1B 106, 2B 103, 3B 101, K 95, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 24.8 → −4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.010.
Result: wOBA .334 → .281; ISO .176 → .160; BABIP .305 → .263. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2013 AABowie Baysox · 220 PAwOBA .326 → .260 (−66)K% 25.9% → 31.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.91% | ÷0.991 | ×1.220 | — | — | 31.89% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.36% | ÷1.189 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.968 | 3.63% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.73% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.968 | 2.24% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.19% | ÷1.032 | ×0.970 | ×0.968 | ×0.968 | 20.43% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.42% | ÷0.890 | ×0.860 | ×0.968 | ×0.968 | 8.53% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.950 | ×0.968 | ×0.968 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.35% | ÷1.140 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.968 | 2.88% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 128, 1B 106, 2B 78, 3B 80, K 98, BB 138 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 24.8 → −3.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.968.
Result: wOBA .326 → .260; ISO .159 → .121; BABIP .331 → .289. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2013 AAACharlotte Knights · 154 PAwOBA .372 → .317 (−54)K% 31.8% → 37.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 31.82% | ÷1.023 | ×1.200 | — | — | 37.34% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.74% | ÷0.939 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.992 | 7.10% |
| HBP% /PA | 9.74% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.992 | 9.08% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.06% | ÷1.004 | ×0.930 | ×1.004 | ×0.992 | 16.66% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.33% | ÷1.006 | ×0.830 | ×1.004 | ×0.992 | 6.85% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.970 | ×1.004 | ×0.992 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 11.11% | ÷0.972 | ×0.840 | — | ×0.992 | 9.53% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 94, 1B 101, 2B 101, 3B 80, K 105, BB 88 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.004.
Result: wOBA .372 → .317; ISO .248 → .210; BABIP .297 → .260. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2012 AABirmingham Barons · 473 PAwOBA .357 → .309 (−48)K% 19.0% → 23.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.03% | ÷1.001 | ×1.220 | — | — | 23.19% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.30% | ÷0.997 | ×0.680 | — | ×0.978 | 6.21% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.75% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×0.978 | 2.26% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.91% | ÷0.995 | ×0.920 | ×0.988 | ×0.978 | 20.47% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.50% | ÷0.952 | ×0.910 | ×0.988 | ×0.978 | 6.01% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.93% | ÷0.910 | ×0.880 | ×0.988 | ×0.978 | 0.87% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.95% | ÷0.823 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.978 | 4.71% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 65, 1B 99, 2B 90, 3B 82, K 100, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 24.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.988.
Result: wOBA .357 → .309; ISO .182 → .171; BABIP .317 → .285. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2011 AABirmingham Barons · 497 PAwOBA .362 → .319 (−43)K% 24.5% → 29.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.55% | ÷1.019 | ×1.220 | — | — | 29.39% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.05% | ÷1.029 | ×0.680 | — | ×0.988 | 5.25% |
| HBP% /PA | 4.83% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×0.988 | 4.01% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.18% | ÷0.960 | ×0.920 | ×1.021 | ×0.988 | 23.40% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.84% | ÷0.996 | ×0.910 | ×1.021 | ×0.988 | 7.23% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.937 | ×0.880 | ×1.021 | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.21% | ÷0.880 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.988 | 5.58% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 76, 1B 92, 2B 99, 3B 87, K 104, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.021.
Result: wOBA .362 → .319; ISO .189 → .171; BABIP .339 → .322. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2010 A+Winston-Salem Dash · 588 PAwOBA .382 → .295 (−87)K% 21.6% → 32.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.60% | ÷0.950 | ×1.420 | — | — | 32.29% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.46% | ÷0.994 | ×0.630 | — | ×0.978 | 4.01% |
| HBP% /PA | 5.10% | — | ×0.860 | — | ×0.978 | 4.29% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.00% | ÷1.008 | ×0.940 | ×1.034 | ×0.978 | 21.68% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.53% | ÷0.971 | ×0.830 | ×1.034 | ×0.978 | 7.37% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.78% | ÷1.150 | ×0.800 | ×1.034 | ×0.978 | 0.55% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.46% | ÷1.125 | ×0.900 | — | ×0.978 | 5.05% |
Factors used: league row CAR. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 125, 1B 102, 2B 94, 3B 130, K 90, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 22.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.034.
Result: wOBA .382 → .295; ISO .222 → .161; BABIP .344 → .311. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2009 A+Winston-Salem Dash · 320 PAwOBA .350 → .274 (−76)K% 26.6% → 37.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.56% | ÷1.000 | ×1.420 | — | — | 37.72% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.630 | — | ×0.988 | 3.11% |
| HBP% /PA | 4.69% | — | ×0.860 | — | ×0.988 | 3.98% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.90% | ÷1.000 | ×0.940 | ×1.026 | ×0.988 | 19.91% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.96% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×1.026 | ×0.988 | 7.54% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | ×1.026 | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 7.46% | ÷1.000 | ×0.900 | — | ×0.988 | 6.64% |
Factors used: league row CAR. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.026.
Result: wOBA .350 → .274; ISO .220 → .169; BABIP .321 → .292. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).