John Bowker
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011 | 28 | AAAPIT | 451 | .306/.350/.482 | 15 | 2 | 100 | — | .274/.305/.426 | |
| 2011 | 28 | MLBPHI | 32 | .133/.188/.167 | 0 | 0 | -14 | -0.9 | ||
| 2014 | 31 | AAAPiratas de Ca… | 89 | .300/.364/.450 | 1 | 0 | 82 | — | .265/.307/.398 | |
| 2015 | 32 | AAAPIT | 355 | .237/.267/.361 | 9 | 1 | 34 | — | .189/.207/.291 | |
| 2016 | 33 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2017 | 34 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2018 | 35 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2019 | 36 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2020 | 37 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2021 | 38 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2022 | 39 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2023 | 40 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2024 | 41 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2025 | 42 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2026 | 43 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2005 | 22 | A+ | San Jose Giants | — | 513 | 464 | 124 | 27 | 1 | 13 | 36 | 108 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 267 | 324 | 414 | 738 | 147 | 316 | 21 | 7 | 323 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2006 | 23 | A+ | San Jose Giants | — | 511 | 462 | 131 | 32 | 6 | 7 | 37 | 100 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 284 | 339 | 424 | 764 | 141 | 346 | 20 | 7 | 334 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2007 | 24 | AA | Connecticut Defenders | — | 587 | 522 | 160 | 35 | 6 | 22 | 41 | 103 | 12 | 3 | 7 | 307 | 370 | 523 | 893 | 216 | 337 | 18 | 7 | 384 | 116 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2008 | 25 | MLB | San Francisco Giants | — | 350 | 326 | 83 | 14 | 3 | 10 | 19 | 74 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 255 | 302 | 408 | 710 | 153 | 299 | 21 | 5 | 314 | 97 | -1 | -0 | -9 | -8 | +8 | -1.1 |
| 2008 | 25 | AAA | Fresno Grizzlies | — | 102 | 93 | 23 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 21 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 247 | 314 | 366 | 679 | 118 | 300 | 21 | 7 | 308 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 26 | MLB | San Francisco Giants | — | 73 | 67 | 13 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 18 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 194 | 250 | 373 | 623 | 179 | 229 | 25 | 5 | 272 | 70 | -3 | +0 | +2 | -6 | +2 | -0.5 |
| 2009 | 26 | AAA | Fresno Grizzlies | — | 450 | 366 | 125 | 22 | 4 | 21 | 74 | 64 | 4 | 10 | 6 | 342 | 457 | 596 | 1.053 | 254 | 362 | 14 | 16 | 452 | 145 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 27 | MLB | Pittsburgh Pirates | — | 167 | 151 | 33 | 8 | 0 | 5 | 14 | 33 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 219 | 285 | 371 | 656 | 152 | 243 | 20 | 8 | 291 | 79 | -4 | -0 | -3 | -5 | +4 | -0.9 |
| 2010 | 27 | AAA | Indianapolis Indians | — | 322 | 288 | 90 | 19 | 3 | 18 | 29 | 57 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 312 | 383 | 587 | 970 | 274 | 336 | 18 | 9 | 420 | 109 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 28 | MLB | Philadelphia Phillies | — | 32 | 30 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 133 | 188 | 167 | 354 | 33 | 211 | 34 | 6 | 169 | -14 | -4 | -0 | +0 | -5 | +1 | -0.9 |
| 2011 | 28 | AAA | Indianapolis Indians | — | 451 | 421 | 129 | 27 | 1 | 15 | 27 | 73 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 306 | 350 | 482 | 832 | 176 | 340 | 16 | 6 | 366 | 100 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 31 | AAA | Piratas de Campeche | — | 89 | 80 | 24 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 300 | 364 | 450 | 814 | 150 | 338 | 13 | 9 | 358 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 32 | AAA | Indianapolis Indians | — | 355 | 338 | 80 | 15 | 0 | 9 | 13 | 67 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 237 | 267 | 361 | 628 | 124 | 268 | 19 | 4 | 277 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MLB Career | — | — | 622 | 574 | 133 | 25 | 5 | 17 | 39 | 136 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 232 | 285 | 382 | 667 | 150 | 272 | 22 | 6 | 295 | 86 | -10 | -1 | -10 | -24 | +13 | -3.2 | ||
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2005 | 22 | A+ MLE | San Jose Giants | — | 513 | 474 | 110 | 22 | 1 | 12 | 26 | 145 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 232 | 276 | 359 | 635 | 127 | 289 | 28 | 5 | 271 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2006 | 23 | A+ MLE | San Jose Giants | — | 511 | 475 | 115 | 26 | 5 | 6 | 24 | 134 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 242 | 281 | 356 | 637 | 114 | 311 | 26 | 5 | 274 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2007 | 24 | AA MLE | Connecticut Defenders | — | 587 | 535 | 152 | 31 | 6 | 18 | 28 | 126 | 12 | 3 | 7 | 284 | 334 | 465 | 799 | 181 | 320 | 21 | 5 | 339 | 116 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2008 | 25 | MLB MLE | San Francisco Giants | — | 350 | 327 | 83 | 14 | 3 | 10 | 18 | 74 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 254 | 299 | 407 | 706 | 153 | 299 | 21 | 5 | 312 | 97 | -1 | -0 | -9 | -8 | +8 | -1.1 |
| 2008 | 25 | AAA MLE | Fresno Grizzlies | — | 102 | 95 | 20 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 27 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 211 | 265 | 316 | 580 | 105 | 278 | 26 | 5 | 252 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 26 | MLB MLE | San Francisco Giants | — | 73 | 67 | 13 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 18 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 194 | 250 | 373 | 623 | 179 | 229 | 25 | 5 | 272 | 70 | -3 | +0 | +2 | -6 | +2 | -0.5 |
| 2009 | 26 | AAA MLE | Fresno Grizzlies | — | 450 | 391 | 116 | 19 | 4 | 17 | 49 | 82 | 4 | 10 | 6 | 297 | 381 | 496 | 877 | 199 | 325 | 18 | 11 | 383 | 145 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 27 | MLB MLE | Pittsburgh Pirates | — | 167 | 153 | 33 | 8 | 0 | 5 | 12 | 33 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 216 | 273 | 366 | 639 | 150 | 243 | 20 | 7 | 285 | 79 | -4 | -0 | -3 | -5 | +4 | -0.9 |
| 2010 | 27 | AAA MLE | Indianapolis Indians | — | 322 | 300 | 75 | 16 | 2 | 14 | 17 | 71 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 250 | 299 | 457 | 756 | 207 | 280 | 22 | 5 | 330 | 109 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 28 | MLB MLE | Philadelphia Phillies | — | 32 | 31 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 129 | 156 | 161 | 318 | 32 | 211 | 34 | 3 | 147 | -14 | -4 | -0 | +0 | -5 | +1 | -0.9 |
| 2011 | 28 | AAA MLE | Indianapolis Indians | — | 451 | 430 | 118 | 24 | 1 | 13 | 18 | 88 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 274 | 305 | 426 | 731 | 151 | 317 | 20 | 4 | 316 | 100 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 31 | AAA MLE | Piratas de Campeche | — | 89 | 83 | 22 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 265 | 307 | 398 | 704 | 133 | 296 | 16 | 6 | 290 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 32 | AAA MLE | Indianapolis Indians | — | 355 | 344 | 65 | 11 | 0 | 8 | 7 | 82 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 189 | 207 | 291 | 498 | 102 | 220 | 23 | 2 | 218 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2005 | 22 | A+ MLE | San Jose Giants | — | 513 | 474 | 110 | 22 | 1 | 12 | 26 | 145 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 232 | 276 | 359 | 635 | 127 | 302 | 28 | 5 | 271 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2005 | 22 | A+ RAW | San Jose Giants | — | 513 | 464 | 124 | 27 | 1 | 13 | 36 | 108 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 267 | 324 | 414 | 738 | 147 | 316 | 21 | 7 | 323 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2006 | 23 | A+ MLE | San Jose Giants | — | 511 | 475 | 115 | 26 | 5 | 6 | 24 | 134 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 242 | 281 | 356 | 637 | 114 | 322 | 26 | 5 | 274 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2006 | 23 | A+ RAW | San Jose Giants | — | 511 | 462 | 131 | 32 | 6 | 7 | 37 | 100 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 284 | 339 | 424 | 764 | 141 | 346 | 20 | 7 | 334 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2007 | 24 | AA MLE | Connecticut Defenders | — | 587 | 535 | 152 | 31 | 6 | 18 | 28 | 126 | 12 | 3 | 7 | 284 | 334 | 465 | 799 | 181 | 333 | 21 | 5 | 339 | 116 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2007 | 24 | AA RAW | Connecticut Defenders | — | 587 | 522 | 160 | 35 | 6 | 22 | 41 | 103 | 12 | 3 | 7 | 307 | 370 | 523 | 893 | 216 | 337 | 18 | 7 | 384 | 116 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2008 | 25 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 452 | 422 | 103 | 16 | 4 | 12 | 23 | 101 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 244 | 291 | 386 | 677 | 142 | 293 | 22 | 5 | 298 | 88 | -6 | +0 | -9 | -8 | +10 | -1.3 |
| 2008 | 25 | MLB RAW | 2 teams | — | 452 | 419 | 106 | 17 | 4 | 12 | 26 | 95 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 253 | 304 | 399 | 703 | 146 | 299 | 21 | 6 | 312 | 88 | -6 | +0 | -9 | -8 | +10 | -1.3 |
| 2009 | 26 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 523 | 458 | 129 | 21 | 6 | 19 | 53 | 100 | 5 | 11 | 6 | 282 | 362 | 478 | 841 | 197 | 318 | 19 | 10 | 367 | 135 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 26 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 523 | 433 | 138 | 24 | 6 | 23 | 78 | 82 | 5 | 11 | 6 | 319 | 428 | 561 | 989 | 242 | 343 | 16 | 15 | 427 | 135 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 27 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 489 | 453 | 108 | 23 | 2 | 20 | 29 | 104 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 238 | 290 | 430 | 721 | 192 | 265 | 21 | 6 | 315 | 99 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 27 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 489 | 439 | 123 | 27 | 3 | 23 | 43 | 90 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 280 | 350 | 513 | 862 | 232 | 304 | 18 | 9 | 376 | 99 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 28 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 483 | 461 | 122 | 25 | 1 | 13 | 19 | 99 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 265 | 295 | 408 | 703 | 143 | 311 | 20 | 4 | 305 | 92 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 28 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 483 | 451 | 133 | 28 | 1 | 15 | 29 | 84 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 295 | 339 | 461 | 800 | 166 | 333 | 17 | 6 | 353 | 92 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 31 | AAA MLE | Piratas de Campeche | — | 89 | 83 | 22 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 265 | 307 | 398 | 704 | 133 | 304 | 16 | 6 | 290 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 31 | AAA RAW | Piratas de Campeche | — | 89 | 80 | 24 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 300 | 364 | 450 | 814 | 150 | 338 | 13 | 9 | 358 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 32 | AAA MLE | Indianapolis Indians | — | 355 | 344 | 65 | 11 | 0 | 8 | 7 | 82 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 189 | 207 | 291 | 498 | 102 | 222 | 23 | 2 | 218 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 32 | AAA RAW | Indianapolis Indians | — | 355 | 338 | 80 | 15 | 0 | 9 | 13 | 67 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 237 | 267 | 361 | 628 | 124 | 268 | 19 | 4 | 277 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2005 | 22 | A+ MLE | San Jose Giants | — | 513 | 479 | 110 | 22 | 1 | 12 | 26 | 145 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 230 | 276 | 355 | 631 | 125 | 289 | 28 | 5 | 271 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2006 | 23 | A+ MLE | San Jose Giants | — | 511 | 480 | 115 | 26 | 5 | 6 | 24 | 134 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 240 | 281 | 352 | 634 | 113 | 311 | 26 | 5 | 274 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2007 | 24 | AA MLE | Connecticut Defenders | — | 587 | 542 | 152 | 31 | 6 | 18 | 28 | 126 | 12 | 3 | 7 | 280 | 334 | 459 | 793 | 179 | 320 | 21 | 5 | 339 | 116 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2008 | 25 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 452 | 421 | 103 | 16 | 4 | 12 | 23 | 101 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 245 | 291 | 387 | 678 | 143 | 294 | 22 | 5 | 298 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 26 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 523 | 460 | 129 | 21 | 6 | 19 | 53 | 100 | 5 | 11 | 6 | 280 | 362 | 476 | 838 | 196 | 312 | 19 | 10 | 367 | 135 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 27 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 489 | 453 | 108 | 23 | 2 | 20 | 29 | 104 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 238 | 290 | 430 | 721 | 192 | 268 | 21 | 6 | 315 | 99 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 28 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 483 | 460 | 122 | 25 | 1 | 13 | 19 | 99 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 265 | 295 | 409 | 704 | 143 | 310 | 20 | 4 | 305 | 92 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 31 | AAA MLE | Piratas de Campeche | — | 89 | 84 | 22 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 262 | 307 | 393 | 700 | 131 | 296 | 16 | 6 | 290 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 32 | AAA MLE | Indianapolis Indians | — | 355 | 344 | 65 | 11 | 0 | 8 | 7 | 82 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 189 | 207 | 291 | 498 | 102 | 220 | 23 | 2 | 218 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 622 | 574 | 133 | 25 | 5 | 17 | 39 | 136 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 232 | 285 | 382 | 667 | 150 | 272 | 22 | 6 | 295 | 91 | -10 | -1 | -10 | -24 | +13 | -3.2 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 600 | 139 | 26 | 5 | 18 | 41 | 142 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 232 | 285 | 382 | 667 | 150 | 272 | 22 | 6 | 295 | 91 | -11 | -1 | -10 | -25 | +14 | -3.3 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 4002 | 3705 | 926 | 181 | 26 | 109 | 214 | 905 | 33 | 31 | 33 | 250 | 297 | 401 | 698 | 151 | 299 | 23 | 5 | 302 | 91 | -10 | -1 | -10 | -24 | +13 | -3.2 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 602 | 150 | 29 | 4 | 18 | 35 | 147 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 249 | 296 | 400 | 696 | 151 | 297 | 23 | 5 | 302 | 91 | -11 | -1 | -10 | -25 | +14 | -3.3 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2015 AAAIndianapolis Indians · 355 PAwOBA .271 → .218 (−53)K% 18.9% → 23.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.87% | ÷0.977 | ×1.200 | — | — | 23.17% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 3.38% | ÷1.077 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.952 | 2.06% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.28% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.952 | 0.25% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.66% | ÷1.044 | ×0.930 | ×0.992 | ×0.952 | 17.39% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.54% | ÷1.050 | ×0.830 | ×0.992 | ×0.952 | 4.13% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.041 | ×0.970 | ×0.992 | ×0.952 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.32% | ÷0.847 | ×0.840 | — | ×0.952 | 3.14% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 69, 1B 109, 2B 110, 3B 108, K 95, BB 115 — applied at half strength. Age: age 32 vs a level average of 27.2 → −4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.992.
Result: wOBA .271 → .218; ISO .124 → .106; BABIP .268 → .220. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2014 AAAPiratas de Campeche · 89 PAwOBA .352 → .290 (−62)K% 13.5% → 16.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 13.48% | ÷1.008 | ×1.200 | — | — | 16.06% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.99% | ÷1.055 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.962 | 5.66% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.962 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.06% | ÷0.995 | ×0.930 | ×1.024 | ×0.962 | 20.29% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.29% | ÷1.010 | ×0.830 | ×1.024 | ×0.962 | 8.33% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.47% | ÷1.150 | ×0.920 | ×1.024 | ×0.962 | 1.16% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.47% | ÷1.245 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.962 | 0.80% |
Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 149, 1B 99, 2B 102, 3B 130, K 102, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 31 vs a level average of 27.2 → −3.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.024.
Result: wOBA .352 → .290; ISO .150 → .114; BABIP .338 → .296. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2011 AAAIndianapolis Indians · 451 PAwOBA .356 → .316 (−40)K% 16.2% → 19.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 16.19% | ÷0.995 | ×1.200 | — | — | 19.51% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.76% | ÷0.978 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.992 | 4.03% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.22% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.992 | 0.21% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.71% | ÷1.008 | ×0.930 | ×1.030 | ×0.992 | 23.29% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.76% | ÷0.927 | ×0.830 | ×1.030 | ×0.992 | 7.10% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.29% | ÷0.984 | ×0.970 | ×1.030 | ×0.992 | 0.29% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.31% | ÷0.955 | ×0.840 | — | ×0.992 | 3.76% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 91, 1B 102, 2B 85, 3B 97, K 99, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.030.
Result: wOBA .356 → .316; ISO .176 → .155; BABIP .340 → .317. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2010 AAAIndianapolis Indians · 322 PAwOBA .405 → .330 (−75)K% 17.7% → 22.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.70% | ÷0.967 | ×1.200 | — | — | 21.97% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.45% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.003 | 5.16% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.24% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.003 | 1.17% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.65% | ÷1.067 | ×0.930 | ×0.977 | ×1.003 | 18.50% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.23% | ÷0.981 | ×0.830 | ×0.977 | ×1.003 | 6.82% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.30% | ÷1.148 | ×0.970 | ×0.977 | ×1.003 | 1.08% |
| Home runs /BIP | 7.79% | ÷1.048 | ×0.840 | — | ×1.003 | 6.26% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 110, 1B 113, 2B 96, 3B 130, K 93, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.977.
Result: wOBA .405 → .330; ISO .274 → .223; BABIP .336 → .280. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2009 AAAFresno Grizzlies · 450 PAwOBA .443 → .383 (−60)K% 14.2% → 18.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 14.22% | ÷1.000 | ×1.290 | — | — | 18.35% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 15.11% | ÷1.000 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.018 | 10.92% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.89% | — | ×0.980 | — | ×1.018 | 0.89% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.83% | ÷1.000 | ×0.900 | ×1.020 | ×1.018 | 24.13% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.28% | ÷1.000 | ×0.810 | ×1.020 | ×1.018 | 6.12% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.32% | ÷1.000 | ×0.810 | ×1.020 | ×1.018 | 1.11% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.95% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.018 | 5.52% |
Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.020.
Result: wOBA .443 → .383; ISO .254 → .214; BABIP .362 → .325. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2008 AAAFresno Grizzlies · 102 PAwOBA .299 → .252 (−48)K% 20.6% → 26.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.59% | ÷1.000 | ×1.290 | — | — | 26.56% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.86% | ÷1.000 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.033 | 5.03% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.96% | — | ×0.980 | — | ×1.033 | 1.98% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.61% | ÷1.000 | ×0.900 | ×1.022 | ×1.033 | 22.42% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.17% | ÷1.000 | ×0.810 | ×1.022 | ×1.033 | 3.56% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.39% | ÷1.000 | ×0.810 | ×1.022 | ×1.033 | 1.19% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.78% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.033 | 2.24% |
Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.022.
Result: wOBA .299 → .252; ISO .118 → .092; BABIP .300 → .278. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2007 AAConnecticut Defenders · 587 PAwOBA .381 → .339 (−42)K% 17.5% → 21.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.55% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 21.41% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.81% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.012 | 4.83% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.04% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.012 | 1.76% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.15% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | ×1.006 | ×1.012 | 22.86% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.35% | ÷1.000 | ×0.860 | ×1.006 | ×1.012 | 7.31% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.43% | ÷1.000 | ×0.950 | ×1.006 | ×1.012 | 1.38% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.25% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.012 | 4.14% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.006.
Result: wOBA .381 → .339; ISO .216 → .182; BABIP .337 → .320. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2006 A+San Jose Giants · 511 PAwOBA .324 → .274 (−51)K% 19.6% → 26.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.57% | ÷1.000 | ×1.340 | — | — | 26.22% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.65% | ÷1.000 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.998 | 4.71% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.39% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×0.998 | 0.31% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.76% | ÷1.000 | ×0.910 | ×1.025 | ×0.998 | 22.12% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.84% | ÷1.000 | ×0.820 | ×1.025 | ×0.998 | 7.42% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.66% | ÷1.000 | ×0.760 | ×1.025 | ×0.998 | 1.29% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.93% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.998 | 1.78% |
Factors used: league row CAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.025.
Result: wOBA .324 → .274; ISO .141 → .117; BABIP .346 → .311. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).