John Baker

PosC

B/TL/R

Born1981-01-20

Age (2027)46

No MLB projection yet. Career stats below are historical.

Overview

AAALAST SEASON 2015

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2013	32	AAACOL	169	.205/.305/.295	4	0	25	—	.163/.234/.229
2013	32	MLBSD	46	.150/.261/.150	0	0	28	0.4
2014	33	MLBCHC	208	.192/.276/.231	0	0	38	-0.9
2015	34	AAASEA	65	.161/.188/.194	0	0	-22	—	.143/.156/.175
2016	35	No MLB games played
2017	36	No MLB games played
2018	37	No MLB games played
2019	38	No MLB games played
2020	39	No MLB games played
2021	40	No MLB games played
2022	41	No MLB games played
2023	42	No MLB games played
2024	43	No MLB games played
2025	44	No MLB games played
2026	45	No MLB games played

Last 3 seasons WAR -0.5

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2005	24	AAA	Sacramento River Cats	—	387	346	81	24	3	5	30	90	4	1	0	234	303	364	667	130	303	23	8	295	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2006	25	AAA	Sacramento River Cats	—	340	293	80	19	1	4	40	77	2	6	0	273	364	386	750	113	353	23	12	336	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	26	AAA	Albuquerque Isotopes	—	303	270	77	15	0	8	28	58	4	2	0	285	361	430	791	144	337	19	9	354	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	27	MLB	Florida Marlins	—	233	197	59	14	0	5	30	48	2	0	0	299	397	447	844	147	367	21	13	373	131	+9	+0	+4	+8	+5	2.6
2008	27	AAA	Albuquerque Isotopes	—	221	193	62	14	1	6	24	34	2	1	2	321	402	497	899	176	361	15	11	395	109	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	28	MLB	Florida Marlins	—	423	373	101	25	0	9	41	89	5	0	0	271	351	410	761	139	332	21	10	340	111	+5	+0	-2	+8	+9	2.1
2010	29	MLB	Florida Marlins	—	88	78	17	3	1	0	9	18	1	0	0	218	307	282	589	64	283	20	10	276	72	-3	+0	-0	+2	+2	0.0
2011	30	MLB	Florida Marlins	—	16	13	2	0	0	0	2	3	0	0	0	154	267	154	421		200	19	12	200	23	-1	+0	-0	+2	+0	0.0
2011	30	A+	Jupiter Hammerheads	—	39	28	8	2	2	0	10	8	1	0	0	286	487	500	987	214	400	21	26	439	120	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	30	INTL	Toros del Este	—	31	25	2	1	0	0	2	9	1	0	0	80	172	120	292	40	118	29	6	139	-20	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	31	MLB	San Diego Padres	—	214	193	46	8	0	0	20	41	0	2	1	238	310	280	590	41	303	19	9	274	70	-8	+0	+1	+4	+5	0.2
2013	32	MLB	San Diego Padres	—	46	40	6	0	0	0	6	12	0	0	0	150	261	150	411		214	26	13	209	28	-4	+0	+3	+4	+1	0.4
2013	32	AAA	Albuquerque Isotopes	—	169	146	30	1	0	4	20	38	1	0	1	205	305	295	600	89	245	22	12	278	25	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	33	MLB	Chicago Cubs	—	208	182	35	7	0	0	19	58	2	0	0	192	276	231	507	38	278	28	9	236	38	-15	+0	-2	+4	+5	-0.9
2015	34	AAA	Tacoma Rainiers	—	65	62	10	2	0	0	2	13	0	0	0	161	188	194	381	32	200	20	3	172	-22	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	1228	1076	266	57	1	14	127	269	10	2	1	247	332	341	673	94	315	22	10	306	93	-10	+0	+4	+30	+27	5.2
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2005	24	AAA MLE	Sacramento River Cats	—	387	354	73	20	3	4	22	116	4	1	0	206	261	314	574	107	288	30	6	249	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2006	25	AAA MLE	Sacramento River Cats	—	340	304	73	16	1	3	29	99	2	6	0	240	310	329	639	89	335	29	9	285	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	26	AAA MLE	Albuquerque Isotopes	—	303	279	69	13	0	6	19	75	4	2	0	247	305	358	663	111	314	25	6	294	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	27	MLB MLE	Florida Marlins	—	233	201	59	14	0	5	26	48	2	0	0	294	380	438	818	144	367	21	11	361	131	+9	+0	+4	+8	+5	2.6
2008	27	AAA MLE	Albuquerque Isotopes	—	221	200	56	12	1	5	17	44	2	1	2	280	342	425	767	145	326	20	8	329	109	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	28	MLB MLE	Florida Marlins	—	423	378	101	25	0	9	36	89	5	0	0	267	339	405	744	138	332	21	9	332	111	+5	+0	-2	+8	+9	2.1
2010	29	MLB MLE	Florida Marlins	—	88	79	17	3	1	0	8	18	1	0	0	215	295	278	574	63	283	20	9	275	72	-3	+0	-0	+2	+2	0.0
2011	30	MLB MLE	Florida Marlins	—	16	13	2	0	0	0	2	3	0	0	0	154	267	154	421		200	19	12	202	23	-1	+0	-0	+2	+0	0.0
2011	30	A+ MLE	Jupiter Hammerheads	—	39	31	8	2	2	0	7	11	1	0	0	258	410	452	862	194	355	28	18	345	120	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	31	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	—	214	195	47	9	0	0	18	41	0	2	1	241	305	287	592	46	303	19	8	272	70	-8	+0	+1	+4	+5	0.2
2013	32	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	—	46	40	6	0	0	0	6	12	0	0	0	150	261	150	411		214	26	13	210	28	-4	+0	+3	+4	+1	0.4
2013	32	AAA MLE	Albuquerque Isotopes	—	169	153	25	1	0	3	13	52	1	0	1	163	234	229	462	65	211	31	8	205	25	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	33	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	—	208	185	35	7	0	0	16	58	2	0	0	189	261	227	488	38	278	28	8	224	38	-15	+0	-2	+4	+5	-0.9
2015	34	AAA MLE	Tacoma Rainiers	—	65	63	9	2	0	0	1	16	0	0	0	143	156	175	331	32	167	25	2	135	-22	—	—	—	—	—	—
2005	24	AAA MLE	Sacramento River Cats	—	387	354	73	20	3	4	22	116	4	1	0	206	261	314	574	107	295	30	6	249	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2005	24	AAA RAW	Sacramento River Cats	—	387	346	81	24	3	5	30	90	4	1	0	234	303	364	667	130	303	23	8	295	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2006	25	AAA MLE	Sacramento River Cats	—	340	304	73	16	1	3	29	99	2	6	0	240	310	329	639	89	341	29	9	285	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2006	25	AAA RAW	Sacramento River Cats	—	340	293	80	19	1	4	40	77	2	6	0	273	364	386	750	113	353	23	12	336	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	26	AAA MLE	Albuquerque Isotopes	—	303	279	69	13	0	6	19	75	4	2	0	247	305	358	663	111	317	25	6	294	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	26	AAA RAW	Albuquerque Isotopes	—	303	270	77	15	0	8	28	58	4	2	0	285	361	430	791	144	337	19	9	354	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	27	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	454	401	115	26	1	10	43	92	4	1	2	287	362	431	793	145	345	20	9	346	120	+11	-1	+4	+8	+10	3.2
2008	27	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	454	390	121	28	1	11	54	82	4	1	2	310	400	472	871	162	364	18	12	384	120	+11	-1	+4	+8	+10	3.2
2009	28	MLB MLE	Florida Marlins	—	423	378	101	25	0	9	36	89	5	0	0	267	339	405	744	138	326	21	9	332	111	+5	+0	-2	+8	+9	2.1
2009	28	MLB RAW	Florida Marlins	—	423	373	101	25	0	9	41	89	5	0	0	271	351	410	761	139	332	21	10	340	111	+5	+0	-2	+8	+9	2.1
2010	29	MLB MLE	Florida Marlins	—	88	79	17	3	1	0	8	18	1	0	0	215	295	278	574	63	279	20	9	275	72	-3	+0	-0	+2	+2	0.0
2010	29	MLB RAW	Florida Marlins	—	88	78	17	3	1	0	9	18	1	0	0	218	307	282	589	64	283	20	10	276	72	-3	+0	-0	+2	+2	0.0
2011	30	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	86	67	15	3	3	0	14	22	2	0	0	224	373	358	732	134	326	26	16	303	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	30	A+ RAW	3 teams	—	86	66	12	3	2	0	14	20	2	0	0	182	337	288	625	106	255	23	16	287	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	31	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	—	214	195	47	9	0	0	18	41	0	2	1	241	305	287	592	46	305	19	8	272	70	-8	+0	+1	+4	+5	0.2
2012	31	MLB RAW	San Diego Padres	—	214	193	46	8	0	0	20	41	0	2	1	238	310	280	590	41	303	19	9	274	70	-8	+0	+1	+4	+5	0.2
2013	32	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	215	193	31	1	0	3	19	64	1	0	1	161	239	212	452	52	219	30	9	206	26	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	32	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	215	186	36	1	0	4	26	50	1	0	1	194	296	263	559	70	239	23	12	263	26	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	33	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	—	208	185	35	7	0	0	16	58	2	0	0	189	261	227	488	38	271	28	8	224	38	-15	+0	-2	+4	+5	-0.9
2014	33	MLB RAW	Chicago Cubs	—	208	182	35	7	0	0	19	58	2	0	0	192	276	231	507	38	278	28	9	236	38	-15	+0	-2	+4	+5	-0.9
2015	34	AAA MLE	Tacoma Rainiers	—	65	63	9	2	0	0	1	16	0	0	0	143	156	175	331	32	188	25	2	135	-22	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	34	AAA RAW	Tacoma Rainiers	—	65	62	10	2	0	0	2	13	0	0	0	161	188	194	381	32	200	20	3	172	-22	—	—	—	—	—	—
2005	24	AAA MLE	Sacramento River Cats	—	387	358	73	20	3	4	22	116	4	1	0	204	261	310	571	106	288	30	6	249	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2006	25	AAA MLE	Sacramento River Cats	—	340	306	73	16	1	3	29	99	2	6	0	239	310	327	637	88	335	29	9	285	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	26	AAA MLE	Albuquerque Isotopes	—	303	277	69	13	0	6	19	75	4	2	0	249	305	361	666	112	314	25	6	294	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	27	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	454	404	115	26	1	10	43	92	4	1	2	285	362	428	790	144	347	20	9	346	120	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	28	MLB MLE	Florida Marlins	—	423	379	101	25	0	9	36	89	5	0	0	266	339	404	743	137	332	21	9	332	111	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	29	MLB MLE	Florida Marlins	—	88	79	17	3	1	0	8	18	1	0	0	215	295	278	574	63	283	20	9	275	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	30	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	86	70	15	3	3	0	14	22	2	0	0	214	373	343	716	129	310	26	16	303	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	31	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	—	214	194	47	9	0	0	18	41	0	2	1	242	305	289	594	46	303	19	8	272	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	32	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	215	193	31	1	0	3	19	64	1	0	1	161	239	212	452	52	212	30	9	206	26	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	33	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	—	208	188	35	7	0	0	16	58	2	0	0	186	261	223	484	37	278	28	8	224	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	34	AAA MLE	Tacoma Rainiers	—	65	64	9	2	0	0	1	16	0	0	0	141	156	172	328	31	167	25	2	135	-22	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	1228	1076	266	57	1	14	127	269	10	2	1	247	332	341	673	94	315	22	10	306	78	-10	+0	+4	+30	+27	5.2
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	570	141	30	1	7	67	142	5	1	1	247	332	340	672	93	315	22	10	306	78	-5	+0	+2	+16	+14	2.7
Career	—	MLE		—	2783	2498	585	125	9	35	225	690	25	12	4	234	304	333	637	99	307	25	8	283	78	-10	+0	+4	+30	+27	5.2
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	583	136	29	2	8	53	161	6	3	1	233	304	331	635	98	306	25	8	283	78	-5	+0	+2	+16	+14	2.7

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2015 AAATacoma Rainiers · 65 PAwOBA .170 → .135 (−35)K% 20.0% → 24.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	20.00%	÷1.049	×1.290	—	—	24.59%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	3.08%	÷1.046	×0.710	—	×0.940	1.96%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.980	—	×0.940	0.00%
Singles /BIP	16.33%	÷0.995	×0.900	×0.988	×0.940	13.71%
Doubles /BIP	4.08%	÷0.910	×0.810	×0.988	×0.940	3.37%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.810	×0.988	×0.940	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.127	×0.780	—	×0.940	0.00%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 125, 1B 99, 2B 82, 3B 80, K 110, BB 109 — applied at half strength. Age: age 34 vs a level average of 27.2 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (6.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.988.

Result: wOBA .170 → .135; ISO .032 → .026; BABIP .200 → .167. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2013 AAAAlbuquerque Isotopes · 169 PAwOBA .274 → .205 (−69)K% 22.5% → 30.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	22.49%	÷0.938	×1.290	—	—	30.92%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.83%	÷1.071	×0.710	—	×0.952	7.47%
HBP% /PA	0.59%	—	×0.980	—	×0.952	0.55%
Singles /BIP	23.15%	÷1.029	×0.900	×1.050	×0.952	20.24%
Doubles /BIP	0.93%	÷1.082	×0.810	×1.050	×0.952	0.69%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.810	×1.050	×0.952	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	3.70%	÷1.004	×0.780	—	×0.952	2.74%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 101, 1B 106, 2B 116, 3B 130, K 88, BB 114 — applied at half strength. Age: age 32 vs a level average of 27.2 → −4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .274 → .205; ISO .089 → .063; BABIP .245 → .211. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2011 A+Jupiter Hammerheads · 39 PAwOBA .430 → .345 (−85)K% 20.5% → 29.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	20.51%	÷1.005	×1.420	—	—	28.99%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	25.64%	÷1.016	×0.750	—	×0.940	17.79%
HBP% /PA	2.56%	—	×0.930	—	×0.940	2.24%
Singles /BIP	20.00%	÷0.971	×0.920	—	×0.940	17.82%
Doubles /BIP	10.00%	÷0.938	×0.960	—	×0.940	9.62%
Triples /BIP	10.00%	÷0.943	×0.810	—	×0.940	8.07%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷0.848	×0.880	—	×0.940	0.00%

Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 70, 1B 94, 2B 88, 3B 89, K 101, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 22.8 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (7.2 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .430 → .345; ISO .214 → .183; BABIP .400 → .355. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2008 AAAAlbuquerque Isotopes · 221 PAwOBA .389 → .329 (−60)K% 15.4% → 19.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	15.38%	÷1.000	×1.290	—	—	19.85%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.86%	÷1.000	×0.710	—	×1.003	7.73%
HBP% /PA	0.90%	—	×0.980	—	×1.003	0.89%
Singles /BIP	25.79%	÷1.000	×0.900	×1.037	×1.003	24.14%
Doubles /BIP	8.81%	÷1.000	×0.810	×1.037	×1.003	7.42%
Triples /BIP	0.63%	÷1.000	×0.810	×1.037	×1.003	0.53%
Home runs /BIP	3.77%	÷1.000	×0.780	—	×1.003	2.95%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.037.

Result: wOBA .389 → .329; ISO .176 → .142; BABIP .361 → .326. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2007 AAAAlbuquerque Isotopes · 303 PAwOBA .345 → .294 (−51)K% 19.1% → 24.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	19.14%	÷1.000	×1.290	—	—	24.69%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.91%	÷1.000	×0.710	—	×1.018	6.44%
HBP% /PA	1.32%	—	×0.980	—	×1.018	1.32%
Singles /BIP	25.47%	÷1.000	×0.900	×1.050	×1.018	24.50%
Doubles /BIP	7.08%	÷1.000	×0.810	×1.050	×1.018	6.13%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.810	×1.050	×1.018	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	3.77%	÷1.000	×0.780	—	×1.018	3.00%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .345 → .294; ISO .144 → .115; BABIP .337 → .314. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2006 AAASacramento River Cats · 340 PAwOBA .330 → .285 (−45)K% 22.6% → 29.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	22.65%	÷1.000	×1.290	—	—	29.21%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.47%	÷1.000	×0.710	—	×1.033	8.41%
HBP% /PA	0.59%	—	×0.980	—	×1.033	0.60%
Singles /BIP	25.93%	÷1.000	×0.900	×1.050	×1.033	25.31%
Doubles /BIP	8.80%	÷1.000	×0.810	×1.050	×1.033	7.73%
Triples /BIP	0.46%	÷1.000	×0.810	×1.050	×1.033	0.41%
Home runs /BIP	1.85%	÷1.000	×0.780	—	×1.033	1.49%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .330 → .285; ISO .113 → .093; BABIP .353 → .335. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2005 AAASacramento River Cats · 387 PAwOBA .288 → .249 (−39)K% 23.3% → 30.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	23.26%	÷1.000	×1.290	—	—	30.00%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.75%	÷1.000	×0.710	—	×1.048	5.77%
HBP% /PA	1.03%	—	×0.980	—	×1.048	1.06%
Singles /BIP	19.14%	÷1.000	×0.900	×1.050	×1.048	18.96%
Doubles /BIP	9.38%	÷1.000	×0.810	×1.050	×1.048	8.36%
Triples /BIP	1.17%	÷1.000	×0.810	×1.050	×1.048	1.04%
Home runs /BIP	1.95%	÷1.000	×0.780	—	×1.048	1.60%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .288 → .249; ISO .130 → .108; BABIP .303 → .288. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .