Don Kelly

PosLF

B/TL/R

Born1980-02-15

Age (2027)47

No MLB projection yet. Career stats below are historical.

Overview

AAALAST SEASON 2016

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2014	34	MLBDET	185	.245/.332/.288	0	6	81	-0.2
2015	35	A+MIA	49	.179/.333/.256	0	0	38	—	.167/.271/.238
2016	36	AAANew Orleans Z…	230	.198/.286/.233	1	1	13	—	.162/.225/.195
2016	36	MLBMIA	30	.148/.207/.296	0	0	37	-0.6
2017	37	No MLB games played
2018	38	No MLB games played
2019	39	No MLB games played
2020	40	No MLB games played
2021	41	No MLB games played
2022	42	No MLB games played
2023	43	No MLB games played
2024	44	No MLB games played
2025	45	No MLB games played
2026	46	No MLB games played

Last 3 seasons WAR -0.8

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2005	25	AAA	Toledo Mud Hens	—	176	160	40	8	0	1	13	15	0	8	2	250	306	319	625	69	271	9	7	281	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2005	25	AA	Erie SeaWolves	—	371	329	112	22	3	9	36	43	1	10	2	340	407	508	915	167	365	12	10	400	128	—	—	—	—	—	—
2006	26	AAA	Toledo Mud Hens	—	267	237	54	14	3	0	24	32	2	18	7	228	304	312	616	84	263	12	9	279	43	—	—	—	—	—	—
2006	26	AA	Erie SeaWolves	—	240	207	57	11	1	0	27	23	1	5	3	275	362	338	700	63	302	10	11	317	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	27	MLB	Pittsburgh Pirates	—	32	27	4	0	0	0	3	3	2	0	0	148	281	148	429		167	9	9	224	38	-2	+0	-0	+2	+1	0.0
2007	27	AAA	Indianapolis Indians	—	174	150	37	5	2	0	18	17	2	6	4	247	335	307	642	60	278	10	10	292	58	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	28	AAA	Tucson Sidewinders	—	479	436	120	24	5	8	32	44	2	2	1	275	328	408	736	133	288	9	7	322	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	29	MLB	Detroit Tigers	—	62	56	14	3	1	0	4	10	1	1	0	250	311	339	651	89	304	16	6	291	83	-1	+0	-0	-5	+1	-0.5
2009	29	AAA	Toledo Mud Hens	—	420	372	123	20	6	6	43	51	3	27	4	331	404	465	869	134	371	12	10	387	100	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	30	MLB	Detroit Tigers	—	251	238	58	4	0	9	8	42	2	3	0	244	274	374	648	130	259	17	3	285	83	-5	+1	+11	-3	+5	0.9
2011	31	MLB	Detroit Tigers	—	281	257	63	8	3	7	14	32	3	2	1	245	292	381	673	136	256	11	5	293	88	-4	+0	+2	+1	+6	0.5
2012	32	MLB	Detroit Tigers	—	127	113	21	2	1	1	14	22	0	2	0	186	276	248	523	62	222	17	11	247	56	-7	+0	-5	-2	+3	-1.1
2012	32	AAA	Toledo Mud Hens	—	85	73	17	2	0	1	12	17	0	4	1	233	341	301	643	68	291	20	14	302	37	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	33	MLB	Detroit Tigers	—	251	216	48	6	1	6	27	28	2	2	0	222	314	343	657	120	226	11	11	294	86	-4	+0	-3	+1	+5	-0.0
2014	34	MLB	Detroit Tigers	—	185	163	40	5	1	0	20	29	1	6	1	245	332	288	620	43	299	16	11	289	81	-4	+1	-3	+1	+4	-0.2
2015	35	A+	Jupiter Hammerheads	—	49	39	7	1	1	0	9	5	0	0	1	179	333	256	590	77	200	10	18	280	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	36	MLB	Miami Marlins	—	30	27	4	0	2	0	2	5	0	0	0	148	207	296	503	148	174	17	7	214	37	-2	+0	+1	-5	+1	-0.6
2016	36	AAA	New Orleans Zephyrs	—	230	202	40	2	1	1	24	40	1	1	1	198	286	233	519	35	239	17	10	245	13	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	1219	1097	252	28	9	23	92	171	11	16	2	230	296	335	630	105	251	14	8	283	77	-33	+2	+1	-10	+26	-1.3
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2005	25	AAA MLE	Toledo Mud Hens	—	176	164	38	7	0	1	9	18	0	8	2	232	272	293	564	61	247	10	5	243	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2005	25	AA MLE	Erie SeaWolves	—	371	343	109	20	3	7	22	52	1	10	2	318	361	455	815	137	347	14	6	358	128	—	—	—	—	—	—
2006	26	AAA MLE	Toledo Mud Hens	—	267	244	49	12	3	0	17	38	2	18	7	201	259	275	533	74	231	14	6	232	43	—	—	—	—	—	—
2006	26	AA MLE	Erie SeaWolves	—	240	215	54	9	1	0	19	28	1	5	3	251	315	302	617	51	274	12	8	277	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	27	MLB MLE	Pittsburgh Pirates	—	32	27	4	0	0	0	3	3	2	0	0	148	281	148	429		167	9	9	224	38	-2	+0	-0	+2	+1	0.0
2007	27	AAA MLE	Indianapolis Indians	—	174	155	35	4	2	0	13	20	2	6	4	226	294	277	572	52	255	11	7	254	58	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	28	AAA MLE	Tucson Sidewinders	—	479	446	102	19	4	6	22	57	2	2	1	229	268	330	598	101	243	12	5	261	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	29	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	—	62	56	14	3	1	0	4	10	1	1	0	250	311	339	651	89	304	16	6	291	83	-1	+0	-0	-5	+1	-0.5
2009	29	AAA MLE	Toledo Mud Hens	—	420	386	109	16	6	5	29	61	3	27	4	282	337	394	731	111	320	15	7	316	100	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	30	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	—	251	238	59	4	0	9	8	42	2	3	0	248	278	378	656	130	259	17	3	291	83	-5	+1	+11	-3	+5	0.9
2011	31	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	—	281	257	64	8	3	7	14	32	3	2	1	249	296	385	681	136	256	11	5	298	88	-4	+0	+2	+1	+6	0.5
2012	32	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	—	127	113	21	2	1	1	14	22	0	2	0	186	276	248	523	62	222	17	11	250	56	-7	+0	-5	-2	+3	-1.1
2012	32	AAA MLE	Toledo Mud Hens	—	85	77	13	1	0	1	8	21	0	4	1	169	247	221	468	52	231	25	9	223	37	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	33	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	—	251	217	48	6	1	6	26	28	2	2	0	221	310	341	651	120	226	11	10	296	86	-4	+0	-3	+1	+5	-0.0
2014	34	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	—	185	164	40	5	1	0	19	29	1	6	1	244	326	287	613	43	299	16	10	288	81	-4	+1	-3	+1	+4	-0.2
2015	35	A+ MLE	Jupiter Hammerheads	—	49	42	7	1	1	0	6	7	0	0	1	167	271	238	509	71	172	14	12	224	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	36	MLB MLE	Miami Marlins	—	30	27	4	0	2	0	2	5	0	0	0	148	207	296	503	148	174	17	7	224	37	-2	+0	+1	-5	+1	-0.6
2016	36	AAA MLE	New Orleans Zephyrs	—	230	210	34	2	1	1	16	50	1	1	1	162	225	195	420	33	195	22	7	187	13	—	—	—	—	—	—
2005	25	AA MLE	2 teams	—	547	507	147	27	3	8	31	70	1	18	4	290	332	402	734	112	320	13	6	321	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2005	25	AA RAW	2 teams	—	547	489	152	30	3	10	49	58	1	18	4	311	375	446	821	135	333	11	9	361	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2006	26	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	507	459	103	21	4	0	36	67	3	23	10	224	285	288	573	63	259	13	7	253	58	—	—	—	—	—	—
2006	26	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	507	444	111	25	4	0	51	55	3	23	10	250	331	324	656	74	282	11	10	297	58	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	27	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	206	182	39	4	2	0	16	23	4	6	4	214	292	258	550	44	245	11	8	249	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	27	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	206	177	41	5	2	0	21	20	4	6	4	232	327	282	609	51	261	10	10	282	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	28	AAA MLE	Tucson Sidewinders	—	479	446	102	19	4	6	22	57	2	2	1	229	268	330	598	101	247	12	5	261	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	28	AAA RAW	Tucson Sidewinders	—	479	436	120	24	5	8	32	44	2	2	1	275	328	408	736	133	288	9	7	322	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	29	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	482	442	123	19	7	5	33	71	4	28	4	278	334	387	721	109	322	15	7	313	98	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	29	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	482	428	137	23	7	6	47	61	4	28	4	320	392	449	841	129	363	13	10	374	98	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	30	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	—	251	238	59	4	0	9	8	42	2	3	0	248	278	378	656	130	265	17	3	291	83	-5	+1	+11	-3	+5	0.9
2010	30	MLB RAW	Detroit Tigers	—	251	238	58	4	0	9	8	42	2	3	0	244	274	374	648	130	259	17	3	285	83	-5	+1	+11	-3	+5	0.9
2011	31	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	—	281	257	64	8	3	7	14	32	3	2	1	249	296	385	681	136	260	11	5	298	88	-4	+0	+2	+1	+6	0.5
2011	31	MLB RAW	Detroit Tigers	—	281	257	63	8	3	7	14	32	3	2	1	245	292	381	673	136	256	11	5	293	88	-4	+0	+2	+1	+6	0.5
2012	32	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	212	190	35	4	1	2	22	43	0	6	1	184	269	247	516	63	228	20	10	239	48	-13	+1	-5	-2	+5	-1.5
2012	32	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	212	186	38	4	1	2	26	39	0	6	1	204	302	269	571	65	248	18	12	269	48	-13	+1	-5	-2	+5	-1.5
2013	33	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	—	251	217	48	6	1	6	26	28	2	2	0	221	310	341	651	120	225	11	10	296	86	-4	+0	-3	+1	+5	-0.0
2013	33	MLB RAW	Detroit Tigers	—	251	216	48	6	1	6	27	28	2	2	0	222	314	343	657	120	226	11	11	294	86	-4	+0	-3	+1	+5	-0.0
2014	34	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	—	185	164	40	5	1	0	19	29	1	6	1	244	326	287	613	43	296	16	10	288	81	-4	+1	-3	+1	+4	-0.2
2014	34	MLB RAW	Detroit Tigers	—	185	163	40	5	1	0	20	29	1	6	1	245	332	288	620	43	299	16	11	289	81	-4	+1	-3	+1	+4	-0.2
2015	35	A+ MLE	Jupiter Hammerheads	—	49	42	7	1	1	0	6	7	0	0	1	167	271	238	509	71	194	14	12	224	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	35	A+ RAW	Jupiter Hammerheads	—	49	39	7	1	1	0	9	5	0	0	1	179	333	256	590	77	200	10	18	280	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	36	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	260	237	38	2	3	1	18	55	1	1	1	160	223	207	429	46	201	21	7	191	16	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	36	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	260	229	44	2	3	1	26	45	1	1	1	192	277	240	518	48	231	17	10	241	16	—	—	—	—	—	—
2005	25	AA MLE	2 teams	—	547	510	147	27	3	8	31	70	1	18	4	288	332	400	732	112	315	13	6	321	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2006	26	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	507	463	103	21	4	0	36	67	3	23	10	222	285	285	570	63	251	13	7	253	58	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	27	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	206	184	39	4	2	0	16	23	4	6	4	212	292	255	548	43	241	11	8	249	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	28	AAA MLE	Tucson Sidewinders	—	479	452	102	19	4	6	22	57	2	2	1	226	268	325	593	100	243	12	5	261	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	29	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	482	442	123	19	7	5	33	71	4	28	4	278	334	387	721	109	318	15	7	313	98	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	30	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	—	251	239	59	4	0	9	8	42	2	3	0	247	278	377	655	130	259	17	3	291	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	31	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	—	281	262	64	8	3	7	14	32	3	2	1	244	296	378	673	134	256	11	5	298	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	32	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	212	188	35	4	1	2	22	43	0	6	1	186	269	250	519	64	226	20	10	239	48	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	33	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	—	251	221	48	6	1	6	26	28	2	2	0	217	310	335	645	118	226	11	10	296	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	34	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	—	185	163	40	5	1	0	19	29	1	6	1	245	326	288	614	43	299	16	10	288	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	35	A+ MLE	Jupiter Hammerheads	—	49	43	7	1	1	0	6	7	0	0	1	163	271	233	503	70	172	14	12	224	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	36	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	260	239	38	2	3	1	18	55	1	1	1	159	223	205	428	46	193	21	7	191	16	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	1219	1097	252	28	9	23	92	171	11	16	2	230	296	335	630	105	251	14	8	283	74	-33	+2	+1	-10	+26	-1.3
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	585	134	15	5	12	49	91	6	9	1	229	295	333	629	104	251	14	8	283	74	-18	+1	+1	-5	+14	-0.7
Career	—	MLE		—	3710	3381	805	120	30	44	251	524	23	97	28	238	295	330	626	92	268	14	7	277	74	-33	+2	+1	-10	+26	-1.3
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	592	141	21	5	8	44	92	4	17	5	238	295	331	626	93	268	14	7	277	74	-18	+1	+1	-5	+14	-0.7

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2016 AAANew Orleans Zephyrs · 230 PAwOBA .239 → .187 (−52)K% 17.4% → 21.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	17.39%	÷1.027	×1.290	—	—	21.84%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.00%	÷0.964	×0.710	—	×0.940	6.93%
HBP% /PA	0.43%	—	×0.980	—	×0.940	0.40%
Singles /BIP	22.22%	÷1.041	×0.900	×1.004	×0.940	18.13%
Doubles /BIP	1.23%	÷0.929	×0.810	×1.004	×0.940	1.02%
Triples /BIP	0.62%	÷1.057	×0.810	×1.004	×0.940	0.45%
Home runs /BIP	0.62%	÷0.919	×0.780	—	×0.940	0.49%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 84, 1B 108, 2B 86, 3B 111, K 105, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 36 vs a level average of 27.2 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (8.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.004.

Result: wOBA .239 → .187; ISO .035 → .027; BABIP .239 → .195. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2015 A+Jupiter Hammerheads · 49 PAwOBA .280 → .224 (−56)K% 10.2% → 14.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	10.20%	÷1.014	×1.420	—	—	14.28%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	18.37%	÷1.037	×0.750	—	×0.940	12.49%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.930	—	×0.940	0.00%
Singles /BIP	14.71%	÷1.002	×0.920	—	×0.940	12.69%
Doubles /BIP	2.94%	÷1.064	×0.960	—	×0.940	2.50%
Triples /BIP	2.94%	÷0.900	×0.810	—	×0.940	2.49%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷0.819	×0.880	—	×0.940	0.00%

Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 64, 1B 100, 2B 113, 3B 80, K 103, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 35 vs a level average of 22.8 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (12.2 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .280 → .224; ISO .077 → .069; BABIP .200 → .172. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2012 AAAToledo Mud Hens · 85 PAwOBA .295 → .223 (−73)K% 20.0% → 25.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	20.00%	÷0.952	×1.200	—	—	25.21%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	14.12%	÷0.988	×0.690	—	×0.952	9.38%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×0.952	0.00%
Singles /BIP	25.00%	÷1.045	×0.930	×0.950	×0.952	20.11%
Doubles /BIP	3.57%	÷1.015	×0.830	×0.950	×0.952	2.64%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.970	×0.950	×0.952	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	1.79%	÷0.913	×0.840	—	×0.952	1.56%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 83, 1B 109, 2B 103, 3B 80, K 90, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 32 vs a level average of 27.2 → −4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .295 → .223; ISO .068 → .056; BABIP .291 → .231. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2009 AAAToledo Mud Hens · 420 PAwOBA .376 → .316 (−60)K% 12.1% → 14.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	12.14%	÷1.000	×1.200	—	—	14.57%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.00%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×0.982	6.78%
HBP% /PA	0.71%	—	×0.940	—	×0.982	0.66%
Singles /BIP	28.35%	÷1.000	×0.930	×0.962	×0.982	24.90%
Doubles /BIP	6.23%	÷1.000	×0.830	×0.962	×0.982	4.88%
Triples /BIP	1.87%	÷1.000	×0.970	×0.962	×0.982	1.71%
Home runs /BIP	1.87%	÷1.000	×0.840	—	×0.982	1.54%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.962.

Result: wOBA .376 → .316; ISO .134 → .114; BABIP .371 → .320. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2008 AAATucson Sidewinders · 479 PAwOBA .316 → .261 (−55)K% 9.2% → 11.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	9.19%	÷1.000	×1.290	—	—	11.85%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	6.47%	÷1.000	×0.710	—	×0.992	4.56%
HBP% /PA	0.42%	—	×0.980	—	×0.992	0.41%
Singles /BIP	21.17%	÷1.000	×0.900	×0.973	×0.992	18.40%
Doubles /BIP	6.12%	÷1.000	×0.810	×0.973	×0.992	4.79%
Triples /BIP	1.28%	÷1.000	×0.810	×0.973	×0.992	1.00%
Home runs /BIP	2.04%	÷1.000	×0.780	—	×0.992	1.58%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.973.

Result: wOBA .316 → .261; ISO .133 → .105; BABIP .288 → .243. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2007 AAAIndianapolis Indians · 174 PAwOBA .285 → .254 (−31)K% 9.8% → 11.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	9.77%	÷1.000	×1.200	—	—	11.72%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.34%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×1.003	7.16%
HBP% /PA	1.15%	—	×0.940	—	×1.003	1.08%
Singles /BIP	22.56%	÷1.000	×0.930	×0.995	×1.003	20.93%
Doubles /BIP	3.76%	÷1.000	×0.830	×0.995	×1.003	3.11%
Triples /BIP	1.50%	÷1.000	×0.970	×0.995	×1.003	1.46%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.840	—	×1.003	0.00%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.995.

Result: wOBA .285 → .254; ISO .060 → .056; BABIP .278 → .255. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2006 AAAToledo Mud Hens · 267 PAwOBA .272 → .232 (−41)K% 12.0% → 14.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	11.99%	÷1.000	×1.200	—	—	14.38%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.99%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×1.018	6.31%
HBP% /PA	0.75%	—	×0.940	—	×1.018	0.72%
Singles /BIP	18.05%	÷1.000	×0.930	×0.950	×1.018	16.23%
Doubles /BIP	6.83%	÷1.000	×0.830	×0.950	×1.018	5.48%
Triples /BIP	1.46%	÷1.000	×0.970	×0.950	×1.018	1.37%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.840	—	×1.018	0.00%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .272 → .232; ISO .084 → .073; BABIP .263 → .231. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2006 AAErie SeaWolves · 240 PAwOBA .316 → .277 (−38)K% 9.6% → 11.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	9.58%	÷1.000	×1.220	—	—	11.69%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.25%	÷1.000	×0.700	—	×0.988	7.78%
HBP% /PA	0.42%	—	×0.850	—	×0.988	0.35%
Singles /BIP	24.46%	÷1.000	×0.970	×0.968	×0.988	22.70%
Doubles /BIP	5.98%	÷1.000	×0.860	×0.968	×0.988	4.92%
Triples /BIP	0.54%	÷1.000	×0.950	×0.968	×0.988	0.49%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.780	—	×0.988	0.00%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.968.

Result: wOBA .316 → .277; ISO .063 → .055; BABIP .302 → .274. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).