Jeff Mathis

PosC

B/TR/R

Born1983-03-31

Age (2027)44

No MLB projection yet. Career stats below are historical.

Overview

MLBLAST SEASON 2020

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR
2018	35	MLBARI	218	.200/.274/.272	1	0	48	1.7
2019	36	MLBTEX	244	.158/.210/.224	2	1	15	-1.3
2020	37	MLBTEX	68	.161/.224/.355	3	1	52	0.1
2021	38	No MLB games played
2022	39	No MLB games played
2023	40	No MLB games played
2024	41	No MLB games played
2025	42	No MLB games played
2026	43	No MLB games played

Last 3 seasons WAR 0.5

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2019-2021

Barrel%10

xwOBA10

Avg EV10

Speed10

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2005	22	AAA	Salt Lake Stingers	—	476	424	118	26	3	21	42	84	1	4	3	278	345	502	847	224	300	18	9	365	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2006	23	MLB	Los Angeles Angels	—	63	55	8	2	0	2	7	14	0	0	0	145	242	291	533	145	150	22	11	242	42	-4	+0	+0	+9	+1	0.6
2006	23	AAA	Salt Lake Bees	—	417	384	111	33	3	5	26	75	2	3	1	289	337	430	767	141	343	18	6	337	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	24	MLB	Los Angeles Angels	—	195	171	36	12	0	4	15	49	2	0	1	211	282	351	633	140	262	25	8	276	73	-6	-0	+5	+8	+4	1.1
2007	24	AAA	Salt Lake Bees	—	273	250	61	14	2	5	17	45	2	3	1	244	297	376	673	132	277	16	6	297	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	25	MLB	Los Angeles Angels	—	328	283	55	8	0	9	30	90	3	2	2	194	278	318	597	124	245	27	9	264	59	-16	-0	+15	+6	+7	1.2
2009	26	MLB	Los Angeles Angels	—	272	237	50	8	0	5	22	73	4	2	3	211	289	308	597	97	281	27	8	266	66	-11	-1	+11	+5	+6	1.0
2010	27	MLB	Los Angeles Angels	—	218	205	40	6	1	3	6	59	1	3	0	195	222	278	500	83	253	27	3	218	35	-17	+1	+6	+5	+5	-0.2
2010	27	AAA	Salt Lake Bees	—	37	33	8	1	1	1	4	10	0	0	0	242	324	424	749	182	318	27	11	332	48	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	28	MLB	Los Angeles Angels	—	281	247	43	12	0	3	15	75	2	1	2	174	227	259	486	85	233	27	5	210	26	-25	-1	+14	+5	+6	-0.0
2012	29	MLB	Toronto Blue Jays	—	227	211	46	13	0	8	9	68	0	1	0	218	250	393	643	175	279	30	4	274	72	-8	+0	+16	+4	+5	1.8
2013	30	MLB	Miami Marlins	—	256	232	42	7	1	5	21	76	1	0	0	181	252	284	536	103	243	30	8	245	49	-15	+0	+12	+5	+6	0.7
2013	30	A+	Jupiter Hammerheads	—	16	14	4	2	0	0	1	4	1	0	0	286	375	429	804	143	400	25	6	363	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	31	MLB	Miami Marlins	—	195	175	35	7	0	2	15	64	0	0	0	200	263	274	537	74	303	33	8	242	50	-12	+0	+6	+3	+4	0.3
2015	32	MLB	Miami Marlins	—	103	93	15	4	1	2	7	24	0	0	0	161	220	290	510	129	186	23	7	224	39	-7	+0	+4	+2	+2	0.0
2015	32	AA	Jacksonville Suns	—	20	17	5	1	0	0	2	6	0	0	0	294	368	353	721	59	417	30	10	315	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	33	MLB	Miami Marlins	—	132	126	30	4	1	2	4	36	1	0	0	238	267	333	601	95	318	27	3	267	73	-4	+0	+9	+2	+3	1.0
2017	34	MLB	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	203	186	40	10	2	2	14	61	2	1	0	215	277	323	600	108	309	30	7	271	61	-9	+0	+12	+4	+4	1.1
2018	35	MLB	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	218	195	39	9	1	1	20	66	0	0	0	200	274	272	546	72	292	30	9	250	48	-13	+0	+21	+4	+5	1.7
2019	36	MLB	Texas Rangers	—	244	228	36	9	0	2	15	87	0	1	0	158	210	224	434	66	243	36	6	200	15	-25	+0	+2	+4	+5	-1.3
2020	37	MLB	Texas Rangers	—	68	62	10	1	1	3	5	24	0	1	0	161	224	355	579	194	194	35	7	252	52	-4	+0	+2	+1	+1	0.1
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	3003	2706	525	112	8	53	205	866	16	12	8	194	255	300	555	106	260	29	7	247	53	-168	-1	+136	+67	+65	10.1
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2005	22	AAA MLE	Salt Lake Stingers	—	476	436	102	21	2	17	30	109	1	4	3	234	285	408	693	174	265	23	6	299	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2006	23	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	—	63	56	8	2	0	2	6	14	0	0	0	143	226	286	512	143	150	22	10	231	42	-4	+0	+0	+9	+1	0.6
2006	23	AAA MLE	Salt Lake Bees	—	417	391	96	27	2	4	19	97	2	3	1	246	284	355	639	110	307	23	5	280	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	24	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	—	195	171	36	12	0	4	15	49	2	0	1	211	282	351	633	140	262	25	8	276	73	-6	-0	+5	+8	+4	1.1
2007	24	AAA MLE	Salt Lake Bees	—	273	254	55	12	2	4	13	58	2	3	1	217	260	327	587	110	253	21	5	250	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	25	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	—	328	287	55	8	0	9	26	90	3	2	2	192	266	314	579	122	245	27	8	255	59	-16	-0	+15	+6	+7	1.2
2009	26	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	—	272	237	50	8	0	5	22	73	4	2	3	211	289	308	597	97	281	27	8	266	66	-11	-1	+11	+5	+6	1.0
2010	27	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	—	218	205	40	6	1	3	6	59	1	3	0	195	222	278	500	83	253	27	3	220	35	-17	+1	+6	+5	+5	-0.2
2010	27	AAA MLE	Salt Lake Bees	—	37	34	7	1	1	1	3	13	0	0	0	206	270	382	653	176	264	35	8	239	48	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	28	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	—	281	249	43	12	0	3	13	75	2	1	2	173	220	257	477	84	233	27	5	207	26	-25	-1	+14	+5	+6	-0.0
2012	29	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	—	227	211	46	13	0	8	9	68	0	1	0	218	250	393	643	175	279	30	4	274	72	-8	+0	+16	+4	+5	1.8
2013	30	MLB MLE	Miami Marlins	—	256	236	43	8	1	5	17	76	1	0	0	182	240	288	528	106	243	30	7	241	49	-15	+0	+12	+5	+6	0.7
2013	30	A+ MLE	Jupiter Hammerheads	—	16	14	2	1	0	0	1	6	1	0	0	143	250	214	464	71	336	38	6	268	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	31	MLB MLE	Miami Marlins	—	195	177	36	8	0	2	13	64	0	0	0	203	258	282	540	79	303	33	7	242	50	-12	+0	+6	+3	+4	0.3
2015	32	MLB MLE	Miami Marlins	—	103	94	15	4	1	2	6	24	0	0	0	160	210	287	497	128	186	23	6	226	39	-7	+0	+4	+2	+2	0.0
2015	32	AA MLE	Jacksonville Suns	—	20	18	5	1	0	0	1	8	0	0	0	278	316	333	649	56	362	40	5	266	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	33	MLB MLE	Miami Marlins	—	132	126	30	4	1	2	4	36	1	0	0	238	267	333	601	95	318	27	3	276	73	-4	+0	+9	+2	+3	1.0
2017	34	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	203	187	39	9	2	2	13	61	2	1	0	209	267	310	577	102	309	30	6	258	61	-9	+0	+12	+4	+4	1.1
2018	35	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	218	196	38	8	1	1	19	66	0	0	0	194	265	260	525	66	292	30	9	240	48	-13	+0	+21	+4	+5	1.7
2019	36	MLB MLE	Texas Rangers	—	244	229	35	8	0	2	14	87	0	1	0	153	202	214	416	61	243	36	6	190	15	-25	+0	+2	+4	+5	-1.3
2020	37	MLB MLE	Texas Rangers	—	68	62	10	1	1	3	5	24	0	1	0	161	224	355	579	194	194	35	7	245	52	-4	+0	+2	+1	+1	0.1
2005	22	AAA MLE	Salt Lake Stingers	—	476	436	102	21	2	17	30	109	1	4	3	234	285	408	693	174	271	23	6	299	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2005	22	AAA RAW	Salt Lake Stingers	—	476	424	118	26	3	21	42	84	1	4	3	278	345	502	847	224	300	18	9	365	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2006	23	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	480	447	104	29	2	6	25	111	2	3	1	233	276	347	623	114	292	23	5	274	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2006	23	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	480	439	119	35	3	7	33	89	2	3	1	271	325	412	737	141	321	19	7	325	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	24	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	468	425	91	24	2	8	28	107	4	3	2	214	269	336	606	122	263	23	6	261	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	24	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	468	421	97	26	2	9	32	94	4	3	2	230	291	366	657	135	272	20	7	288	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	25	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	—	328	287	55	8	0	9	26	90	3	2	2	192	266	314	579	122	240	27	8	255	59	-16	-0	+15	+6	+7	1.2
2008	25	MLB RAW	Los Angeles Angels	—	328	283	55	8	0	9	30	90	3	2	2	194	278	318	597	124	245	27	9	264	59	-16	-0	+15	+6	+7	1.2
2009	26	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	—	272	237	50	8	0	5	22	73	4	2	3	211	289	308	597	97	281	27	8	266	66	-11	-1	+11	+5	+6	1.0
2009	26	MLB RAW	Los Angeles Angels	—	272	237	50	8	0	5	22	73	4	2	3	211	289	308	597	97	281	27	8	266	66	-11	-1	+11	+5	+6	1.0
2010	27	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	255	239	47	7	2	4	9	72	1	3	0	197	229	293	522	96	259	28	4	222	37	-19	+1	+6	+5	+6	-0.3
2010	27	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	255	238	48	7	2	4	10	69	1	3	0	202	237	298	535	97	262	27	4	235	37	-19	+1	+6	+5	+6	-0.3
2011	28	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	—	281	249	43	12	0	3	13	75	2	1	2	173	220	257	477	84	230	27	5	207	26	-25	-1	+14	+5	+6	-0.0
2011	28	MLB RAW	Los Angeles Angels	—	281	247	43	12	0	3	15	75	2	1	2	174	227	259	486	85	233	27	5	210	26	-25	-1	+14	+5	+6	-0.0
2012	29	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	—	227	211	46	13	0	8	9	68	0	1	0	218	250	393	643	175	279	30	4	274	72	-8	+0	+16	+4	+5	1.8
2012	29	MLB RAW	Toronto Blue Jays	—	227	211	46	13	0	8	9	68	0	1	0	218	250	393	643	175	279	30	4	274	72	-8	+0	+16	+4	+5	1.8
2013	30	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	272	250	46	9	1	5	18	82	2	0	0	184	244	288	532	104	250	30	7	243	50	-16	+0	+12	+5	+6	0.7
2013	30	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	272	246	46	9	1	5	22	80	2	0	0	187	259	293	552	106	253	29	8	252	50	-16	+0	+12	+5	+6	0.7
2014	31	MLB MLE	Miami Marlins	—	195	177	36	8	0	2	13	64	0	0	0	203	258	282	540	79	306	33	7	242	50	-12	+0	+6	+3	+4	0.3
2014	31	MLB RAW	Miami Marlins	—	195	175	35	7	0	2	15	64	0	0	0	200	263	274	537	74	303	33	8	242	50	-12	+0	+6	+3	+4	0.3
2015	32	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	123	112	20	5	1	2	7	32	0	0	0	179	227	295	522	116	220	26	6	232	43	-8	+0	+4	+2	+3	0.0
2015	32	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	123	110	20	5	1	2	9	30	0	0	0	182	244	300	544	118	220	24	7	239	43	-8	+0	+4	+2	+3	0.0
2016	33	MLB MLE	Miami Marlins	—	132	126	30	4	1	2	4	36	1	0	0	238	267	333	601	95	318	27	3	276	73	-4	+0	+9	+2	+3	1.0
2016	33	MLB RAW	Miami Marlins	—	132	126	30	4	1	2	4	36	1	0	0	238	267	333	601	95	318	27	3	267	73	-4	+0	+9	+2	+3	1.0
2017	34	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	203	187	39	9	2	2	13	61	2	1	0	209	267	310	577	102	298	30	6	258	61	-9	+0	+12	+4	+4	1.1
2017	34	MLB RAW	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	203	186	40	10	2	2	14	61	2	1	0	215	277	323	600	108	309	30	7	271	61	-9	+0	+12	+4	+4	1.1
2018	35	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	218	196	38	8	1	1	19	66	0	0	0	194	265	260	525	66	282	30	9	240	48	-13	+0	+21	+4	+5	1.7
2018	35	MLB RAW	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	218	195	39	9	1	1	20	66	0	0	0	200	274	272	546	72	292	30	9	250	48	-13	+0	+21	+4	+5	1.7
2019	36	MLB MLE	Texas Rangers	—	244	229	35	8	0	2	14	87	0	1	0	153	202	214	416	61	234	36	6	190	15	-25	+0	+2	+4	+5	-1.3
2019	36	MLB RAW	Texas Rangers	—	244	228	36	9	0	2	15	87	0	1	0	158	210	224	434	66	243	36	6	200	15	-25	+0	+2	+4	+5	-1.3
2020	37	MLB MLE	Texas Rangers	—	68	62	10	1	1	3	5	24	0	1	0	161	224	355	579	194	194	35	7	245	52	-4	+0	+2	+1	+1	0.1
2020	37	MLB RAW	Texas Rangers	—	68	62	10	1	1	3	5	24	0	1	0	161	224	355	579	194	194	35	7	252	52	-4	+0	+2	+1	+1	0.1
2005	22	AAA MLE	Salt Lake Stingers	—	476	442	102	21	2	17	30	109	1	4	3	231	285	403	688	172	265	23	6	299	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2006	23	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	480	450	104	29	2	6	25	111	2	3	1	231	276	344	621	113	286	23	5	274	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	24	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	468	433	91	24	2	8	28	107	4	3	2	210	269	330	599	120	257	23	6	261	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	25	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	—	328	296	55	8	0	9	26	90	3	2	2	186	266	304	570	118	245	27	8	255	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	26	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	—	272	244	50	8	0	5	22	73	4	2	3	205	289	299	588	94	281	27	8	266	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	27	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	255	243	47	7	2	4	9	72	1	3	0	193	229	288	517	95	255	28	4	222	37	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	28	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	—	281	264	43	12	0	3	13	75	2	1	2	163	220	242	462	80	233	27	5	207	26	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	29	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	—	227	216	46	13	0	8	9	68	0	1	0	213	250	384	634	171	279	30	4	274	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	30	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	272	250	46	9	1	5	18	82	2	0	0	184	244	288	532	104	249	30	7	243	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	31	MLB MLE	Miami Marlins	—	195	180	36	8	0	2	13	64	0	0	0	200	258	278	536	78	303	33	7	242	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	32	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	123	115	20	5	1	2	7	32	0	0	0	174	227	287	514	113	214	26	6	232	43	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	33	MLB MLE	Miami Marlins	—	132	126	30	4	1	2	4	36	1	0	0	238	267	333	601	95	318	27	3	276	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	34	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	203	186	39	9	2	2	13	61	2	1	0	210	267	312	579	102	309	30	6	258	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	35	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	218	197	38	8	1	1	19	66	0	0	0	193	265	259	524	66	292	30	9	240	48	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	36	MLB MLE	Texas Rangers	—	244	228	35	8	0	2	14	87	0	1	0	154	202	215	417	61	243	36	6	190	15	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	37	MLB MLE	Texas Rangers	—	68	63	10	1	1	3	5	24	0	1	0	159	224	349	573	190	194	35	7	245	52	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	3003	2706	525	112	8	53	205	866	16	12	8	194	255	300	555	106	260	29	7	247	58	-168	-1	+136	+67	+65	10.1
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	586	113	24	2	11	44	187	3	3	2	193	252	297	549	104	260	29	7	247	58	-36	-0	+29	+15	+14	2.2
Career	—	MLE		—	4242	3870	792	174	15	79	255	1157	22	22	13	205	258	319	576	114	267	27	6	253	58	-168	-1	+136	+67	+65	10.1
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	593	121	27	2	12	39	177	3	3	2	204	257	317	574	113	266	27	6	253	58	-36	-0	+29	+15	+14	2.2

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2015 AAJacksonville Suns · 20 PAwOBA .323 → .266 (−58)K% 30.0% → 38.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	30.00%	÷0.964	×1.220	—	—	37.97%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.00%	÷1.017	×0.680	—	×0.940	6.28%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.840	—	×0.940	0.00%
Singles /BIP	36.36%	÷0.990	×0.920	—	×0.940	31.77%
Doubles /BIP	9.09%	÷1.012	×0.910	—	×0.940	7.68%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.880	—	×0.940	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷0.973	×0.800	—	×0.940	0.00%

Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 95, 1B 98, 2B 102, 3B 80, K 93, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 32 vs a level average of 24.8 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (7.2 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .323 → .266; ISO .059 → .050; BABIP .417 → .362. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2013 A+Jupiter Hammerheads · 16 PAwOBA .354 → .268 (−86)K% 25.0% → 34.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	25.00%	÷1.019	×1.420	—	—	34.83%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	6.25%	÷0.970	×0.750	—	×0.940	4.54%
HBP% /PA	6.25%	—	×0.930	—	×0.940	5.46%
Singles /BIP	20.00%	÷1.029	×0.920	—	×0.940	16.80%
Doubles /BIP	20.00%	÷1.073	×0.960	—	×0.940	16.82%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.810	—	×0.940	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷0.942	×0.880	—	×0.940	0.00%

Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 88, 1B 106, 2B 115, 3B 80, K 104, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 22.8 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (7.2 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .354 → .268; ISO .143 → .106; BABIP .400 → .336. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2010 AAASalt Lake Bees · 37 PAwOBA .324 → .239 (−85)K% 27.0% → 35.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	27.03%	÷0.980	×1.290	—	—	35.58%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.81%	÷1.016	×0.710	—	×1.003	7.57%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.980	—	×1.003	0.00%
Singles /BIP	21.74%	÷1.060	×0.900	—	×1.003	18.52%
Doubles /BIP	4.35%	÷0.999	×0.810	—	×1.003	3.53%
Triples /BIP	4.35%	÷1.035	×0.810	—	×1.003	3.41%
Home runs /BIP	4.35%	÷1.011	×0.780	—	×1.003	3.36%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 102, 1B 112, 2B 100, 3B 107, K 96, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .324 → .239; ISO .182 → .130; BABIP .318 → .264. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2007 AAASalt Lake Bees · 273 PAwOBA .291 → .250 (−42)K% 16.5% → 21.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	16.48%	÷1.000	×1.290	—	—	21.26%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	6.23%	÷1.000	×0.710	—	×1.048	4.63%
HBP% /PA	0.73%	—	×0.980	—	×1.048	0.75%
Singles /BIP	19.51%	÷1.000	×0.900	×0.999	×1.048	18.39%
Doubles /BIP	6.83%	÷1.000	×0.810	×0.999	×1.048	5.79%
Triples /BIP	0.98%	÷1.000	×0.810	×0.999	×1.048	0.83%
Home runs /BIP	2.44%	÷1.000	×0.780	—	×1.048	1.99%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.999.

Result: wOBA .291 → .250; ISO .132 → .108; BABIP .277 → .253. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2006 AAASalt Lake Bees · 417 PAwOBA .331 → .280 (−51)K% 18.0% → 23.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	17.99%	÷1.000	×1.290	—	—	23.20%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	6.00%	÷1.000	×0.710	—	×1.050	4.47%
HBP% /PA	0.48%	—	×0.980	—	×1.050	0.49%
Singles /BIP	22.65%	÷1.000	×0.900	×0.985	×1.050	21.09%
Doubles /BIP	10.68%	÷1.000	×0.810	×0.985	×1.050	8.95%
Triples /BIP	0.97%	÷1.000	×0.810	×0.985	×1.050	0.81%
Home runs /BIP	1.62%	÷1.000	×0.780	—	×1.050	1.33%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.985.

Result: wOBA .331 → .280; ISO .141 → .113; BABIP .343 → .307. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2005 AAASalt Lake Stingers · 476 PAwOBA .357 → .299 (−58)K% 17.6% → 22.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	17.65%	÷1.000	×1.290	—	—	22.76%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.61%	÷1.000	×0.710	—	×1.050	6.42%
HBP% /PA	0.21%	—	×0.980	—	×1.050	0.22%
Singles /BIP	20.00%	÷1.000	×0.900	×0.973	×1.050	18.40%
Doubles /BIP	7.65%	÷1.000	×0.810	×0.973	×1.050	6.33%
Triples /BIP	0.88%	÷1.000	×0.810	×0.973	×1.050	0.73%
Home runs /BIP	6.18%	÷1.000	×0.780	—	×1.050	5.06%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.973.

Result: wOBA .357 → .299; ISO .224 → .182; BABIP .300 → .265. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).