DFS

Daily Fantasy · PrizePicks & DraftKings Props stale (100h)DK Salaries stale (98h)

Today's best single-leg plays, parlays, and an optimizer-built DraftKings lineup. All numbers come from Ogilvie's per-matchup projections (log5 + park + weather + L/R splits) — same model that powers the Matchups page.

Single-leg win probabilities from a Poisson model on Ogilvie's per-matchup projections (log5 × park × weather). Parlays use the standard PrizePicks Power payouts (3× / 5× / 10× for 2/3/4-pick); EV is per $1 stake and assumes leg-independence.

Top Single-Leg Plays · Highest Win Probability

#PlayerMarketLineProjP(Over)Edge%
1José Ramírez CLE · LAA@CLEH+R+RBI (PP Goblin)0.52.9394.7%+44.7
2Nick Kurtz OAK · STL@ATHH+R+RBI (PP Goblin)0.52.9094.5%+44.5
3Shea Langeliers OAK · STL@ATHH+R+RBI (PP Goblin)0.52.8994.5%+44.5
4Byron Buxton MIN · MIA@MINH+R+RBI (PP Goblin)0.52.8794.3%+44.3
5Freddie Freeman LAD · SF@LADH+R+RBI (PP Goblin)0.52.8394.1%+44.1
6Drake Baldwin ATL · CHC@ATLH+R+RBI (PP Goblin)0.52.8194.0%+44.0
7Chase DeLauter CLE · LAA@CLEH+R+RBI (PP Goblin)0.52.7893.8%+43.8
8Kyle Tucker LAD · SF@LADH+R+RBI (PP Goblin)0.52.7693.6%+43.6
9Marcell Ozuna PIT · COL@PITH+R+RBI (PP Goblin)0.52.6492.8%+42.8
10Matt Olson ATL · CHC@ATLH+R+RBI (PP Goblin)0.52.6392.8%+42.8
11Andy Pages LAD · SF@LADH+R+RBI (PP Goblin)0.52.6292.7%+42.7
12Oneil Cruz PIT · COL@PITH+R+RBI (PP Goblin)0.52.6192.6%+42.6
13Teoscar Hernández LAD · SF@LADH+R+RBI (PP Goblin)0.52.6092.6%+42.6
14Michael Harris II ATL · CHC@ATLH+R+RBI (PP Goblin)0.52.6092.6%+42.6
15Gunnar Henderson BAL · NYY@BALH+R+RBI (PP Goblin)0.52.5892.4%+42.4

Top 2-Pick Parlays

Parlay #1 · 2-pick89.4% hit · payout 3× · EV +2.58
José Ramírez H+R+RBI (PP Goblin) OVER 0.595%
Nick Kurtz H+R+RBI (PP Goblin) OVER 0.594%
Parlay #2 · 2-pick89.4% hit · payout 3× · EV +2.58
José Ramírez H+R+RBI (PP Goblin) OVER 0.595%
Shea Langeliers H+R+RBI (PP Goblin) OVER 0.594%
Parlay #3 · 2-pick89.3% hit · payout 3× · EV +2.57
José Ramírez H+R+RBI (PP Goblin) OVER 0.595%
Byron Buxton H+R+RBI (PP Goblin) OVER 0.594%
Parlay #4 · 2-pick89.2% hit · payout 3× · EV +2.57
Nick Kurtz H+R+RBI (PP Goblin) OVER 0.594%
Shea Langeliers H+R+RBI (PP Goblin) OVER 0.594%
Parlay #5 · 2-pick89.1% hit · payout 3× · EV +2.56
Nick Kurtz H+R+RBI (PP Goblin) OVER 0.594%
Byron Buxton H+R+RBI (PP Goblin) OVER 0.594%

Top 3-Pick Parlays

Parlay #1 · 3-pick84.5% hit · payout 5× · EV +4.07
José Ramírez H+R+RBI (PP Goblin) OVER 0.595%
Nick Kurtz H+R+RBI (PP Goblin) OVER 0.594%
Shea Langeliers H+R+RBI (PP Goblin) OVER 0.594%
Parlay #2 · 3-pick84.3% hit · payout 5× · EV +4.06
José Ramírez H+R+RBI (PP Goblin) OVER 0.595%
Nick Kurtz H+R+RBI (PP Goblin) OVER 0.594%
Byron Buxton H+R+RBI (PP Goblin) OVER 0.594%
Parlay #3 · 3-pick84.3% hit · payout 5× · EV +4.06
José Ramírez H+R+RBI (PP Goblin) OVER 0.595%
Shea Langeliers H+R+RBI (PP Goblin) OVER 0.594%
Byron Buxton H+R+RBI (PP Goblin) OVER 0.594%
Parlay #4 · 3-pick84.2% hit · payout 5× · EV +4.05
Nick Kurtz H+R+RBI (PP Goblin) OVER 0.594%
Shea Langeliers H+R+RBI (PP Goblin) OVER 0.594%
Byron Buxton H+R+RBI (PP Goblin) OVER 0.594%
Parlay #5 · 3-pick84.1% hit · payout 5× · EV +4.05
José Ramírez H+R+RBI (PP Goblin) OVER 0.595%
Nick Kurtz H+R+RBI (PP Goblin) OVER 0.594%
Freddie Freeman H+R+RBI (PP Goblin) OVER 0.594%

Top 4-Pick Parlays

Parlay #1 · 4-pick79.7% hit · payout 10× · EV +7.76
José Ramírez H+R+RBI (PP Goblin) OVER 0.595%
Nick Kurtz H+R+RBI (PP Goblin) OVER 0.594%
Shea Langeliers H+R+RBI (PP Goblin) OVER 0.594%
Byron Buxton H+R+RBI (PP Goblin) OVER 0.594%
Parlay #2 · 4-pick79.5% hit · payout 10× · EV +7.74
José Ramírez H+R+RBI (PP Goblin) OVER 0.595%
Nick Kurtz H+R+RBI (PP Goblin) OVER 0.594%
Shea Langeliers H+R+RBI (PP Goblin) OVER 0.594%
Freddie Freeman H+R+RBI (PP Goblin) OVER 0.594%
Parlay #3 · 4-pick79.4% hit · payout 10× · EV +7.74
José Ramírez H+R+RBI (PP Goblin) OVER 0.595%
Nick Kurtz H+R+RBI (PP Goblin) OVER 0.594%
Shea Langeliers H+R+RBI (PP Goblin) OVER 0.594%
Drake Baldwin H+R+RBI (PP Goblin) OVER 0.594%