DFS
Daily Fantasy · PrizePicks & DraftKings Props stale (100h)DK Salaries stale (98h)
Today's best single-leg plays, parlays, and an optimizer-built DraftKings lineup. All numbers come from Ogilvie's per-matchup projections (log5 + park + weather + L/R splits) — same model that powers the Matchups page.
Single-leg win probabilities from a Poisson model on Ogilvie's per-matchup projections (log5 × park × weather). Parlays use the standard PrizePicks Power payouts (3× / 5× / 10× for 2/3/4-pick); EV is per $1 stake and assumes leg-independence.
Top Single-Leg Plays · Highest Win Probability
| # | Player | Market | Line | Proj | P(Over) | Edge% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | José Ramírez CLE · LAA@CLE | H+R+RBI (PP Goblin) | 0.5 | 2.93 | 94.7% | +44.7 |
| 2 | Nick Kurtz OAK · STL@ATH | H+R+RBI (PP Goblin) | 0.5 | 2.90 | 94.5% | +44.5 |
| 3 | Shea Langeliers OAK · STL@ATH | H+R+RBI (PP Goblin) | 0.5 | 2.89 | 94.5% | +44.5 |
| 4 | Byron Buxton MIN · MIA@MIN | H+R+RBI (PP Goblin) | 0.5 | 2.87 | 94.3% | +44.3 |
| 5 | Freddie Freeman LAD · SF@LAD | H+R+RBI (PP Goblin) | 0.5 | 2.83 | 94.1% | +44.1 |
| 6 | Drake Baldwin ATL · CHC@ATL | H+R+RBI (PP Goblin) | 0.5 | 2.81 | 94.0% | +44.0 |
| 7 | Chase DeLauter CLE · LAA@CLE | H+R+RBI (PP Goblin) | 0.5 | 2.78 | 93.8% | +43.8 |
| 8 | Kyle Tucker LAD · SF@LAD | H+R+RBI (PP Goblin) | 0.5 | 2.76 | 93.6% | +43.6 |
| 9 | Marcell Ozuna PIT · COL@PIT | H+R+RBI (PP Goblin) | 0.5 | 2.64 | 92.8% | +42.8 |
| 10 | Matt Olson ATL · CHC@ATL | H+R+RBI (PP Goblin) | 0.5 | 2.63 | 92.8% | +42.8 |
| 11 | Andy Pages LAD · SF@LAD | H+R+RBI (PP Goblin) | 0.5 | 2.62 | 92.7% | +42.7 |
| 12 | Oneil Cruz PIT · COL@PIT | H+R+RBI (PP Goblin) | 0.5 | 2.61 | 92.6% | +42.6 |
| 13 | Teoscar Hernández LAD · SF@LAD | H+R+RBI (PP Goblin) | 0.5 | 2.60 | 92.6% | +42.6 |
| 14 | Michael Harris II ATL · CHC@ATL | H+R+RBI (PP Goblin) | 0.5 | 2.60 | 92.6% | +42.6 |
| 15 | Gunnar Henderson BAL · NYY@BAL | H+R+RBI (PP Goblin) | 0.5 | 2.58 | 92.4% | +42.4 |
Top 2-Pick Parlays
Parlay #1 · 2-pick89.4% hit · payout 3× · EV +2.58
José Ramírez H+R+RBI (PP Goblin) OVER 0.595%
Nick Kurtz H+R+RBI (PP Goblin) OVER 0.594%
Parlay #2 · 2-pick89.4% hit · payout 3× · EV +2.58
José Ramírez H+R+RBI (PP Goblin) OVER 0.595%
Shea Langeliers H+R+RBI (PP Goblin) OVER 0.594%
Parlay #3 · 2-pick89.3% hit · payout 3× · EV +2.57
José Ramírez H+R+RBI (PP Goblin) OVER 0.595%
Byron Buxton H+R+RBI (PP Goblin) OVER 0.594%
Parlay #4 · 2-pick89.2% hit · payout 3× · EV +2.57
Nick Kurtz H+R+RBI (PP Goblin) OVER 0.594%
Shea Langeliers H+R+RBI (PP Goblin) OVER 0.594%
Parlay #5 · 2-pick89.1% hit · payout 3× · EV +2.56
Nick Kurtz H+R+RBI (PP Goblin) OVER 0.594%
Byron Buxton H+R+RBI (PP Goblin) OVER 0.594%
Top 3-Pick Parlays
Parlay #1 · 3-pick84.5% hit · payout 5× · EV +4.07
José Ramírez H+R+RBI (PP Goblin) OVER 0.595%
Nick Kurtz H+R+RBI (PP Goblin) OVER 0.594%
Shea Langeliers H+R+RBI (PP Goblin) OVER 0.594%
Parlay #2 · 3-pick84.3% hit · payout 5× · EV +4.06
José Ramírez H+R+RBI (PP Goblin) OVER 0.595%
Nick Kurtz H+R+RBI (PP Goblin) OVER 0.594%
Byron Buxton H+R+RBI (PP Goblin) OVER 0.594%
Parlay #3 · 3-pick84.3% hit · payout 5× · EV +4.06
José Ramírez H+R+RBI (PP Goblin) OVER 0.595%
Shea Langeliers H+R+RBI (PP Goblin) OVER 0.594%
Byron Buxton H+R+RBI (PP Goblin) OVER 0.594%
Parlay #4 · 3-pick84.2% hit · payout 5× · EV +4.05
Nick Kurtz H+R+RBI (PP Goblin) OVER 0.594%
Shea Langeliers H+R+RBI (PP Goblin) OVER 0.594%
Byron Buxton H+R+RBI (PP Goblin) OVER 0.594%
Parlay #5 · 3-pick84.1% hit · payout 5× · EV +4.05
José Ramírez H+R+RBI (PP Goblin) OVER 0.595%
Nick Kurtz H+R+RBI (PP Goblin) OVER 0.594%
Freddie Freeman H+R+RBI (PP Goblin) OVER 0.594%
Top 4-Pick Parlays
Parlay #1 · 4-pick79.7% hit · payout 10× · EV +7.76
José Ramírez H+R+RBI (PP Goblin) OVER 0.595%
Nick Kurtz H+R+RBI (PP Goblin) OVER 0.594%
Shea Langeliers H+R+RBI (PP Goblin) OVER 0.594%
Byron Buxton H+R+RBI (PP Goblin) OVER 0.594%
Parlay #2 · 4-pick79.5% hit · payout 10× · EV +7.74
José Ramírez H+R+RBI (PP Goblin) OVER 0.595%
Nick Kurtz H+R+RBI (PP Goblin) OVER 0.594%
Shea Langeliers H+R+RBI (PP Goblin) OVER 0.594%
Freddie Freeman H+R+RBI (PP Goblin) OVER 0.594%
Parlay #3 · 4-pick79.4% hit · payout 10× · EV +7.74
José Ramírez H+R+RBI (PP Goblin) OVER 0.595%
Nick Kurtz H+R+RBI (PP Goblin) OVER 0.594%
Shea Langeliers H+R+RBI (PP Goblin) OVER 0.594%
Drake Baldwin H+R+RBI (PP Goblin) OVER 0.594%