Sam Gardner

P Buffalo Bisons

Age 30 RHP 6'1" / 205 lbs AAA

Overview

AAAPROSPECT

MLB%10%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	26	A+MIL	21	45	2.22	3.01	30.9%	13.1%	—	K 23.8% · BB 15.1% · FIP 4.04
2024	27	MIX2 levels	24	37	2.19	1.56	38.7%	8.8%	—	K 30.1% · BB 10.2% · FIP 2.28
2026	29	MIX2 levels	31	41	6.31	3.63	28.2%	11.2%	—	K 23.8% · BB 10.3% · FIP 4.03
2027PROJ	30	MLBTOR	22	23	4.37	4.37	23.9%	10.1%	0.0
2028PROJ37% MLB	31	MLBTOR	8	8	4.49	4.57	23.4%	10.3%	-0.0

Next 2 projected WAR 0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 98%

CompsJoe Nelson (age 31) · Neil Wagner (age 29) · Jim Miller (age 30)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 116108vR 100

ERA4.37

FIP4.37

K%23.9%

BB%10.1%

K-BB%13.8%

Proj IP23

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 23 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	26	A+ MLE	Wisconsin Timber Rattlers	21	0	45	191	59	25	3	0%	2.1	23.8%	15.1%	8.7%	1.9%	2.22	4.04	—
2023	26	A+ RAW	Wisconsin Timber Rattlers	21	0	45	191	59	25	3	0%	2.1	30.9%	13.1%	17.8%	1.6%	2.22	3.01	—
2024	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	0	37	137	53	12	1	0%	1.5	30.1%	10.2%	19.9%	0.8%	2.19	2.28	—
2024	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	0	37	137	53	12	1	0%	1.5	30.1%	10.2%	19.9%	0.8%	2.19	2.28	—
2024	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	0	37	137	53	12	1	0%	1.5	38.7%	8.8%	29.9%	0.7%	2.19	1.56	—
2026	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	0	41	188	53	21	5	0%	1.3	23.8%	10.3%	13.5%	3.0%	6.31	4.03	—
2026	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	0	41	188	53	21	5	0%	1.3	23.8%	10.3%	13.5%	3.0%	6.31	4.03	—
2026	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	31	0	41	188	53	21	5	0%	1.3	28.2%	11.2%	17.0%	2.7%	6.31	3.63	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	30	MLB	TOR	22	0	23	97	23	10	3	0%	1.0	23.9%	10.1%	13.8%	3.0%	4.37	4.37	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	31	MLB MLE	TOR	21	0	22	92	21	9	3	0%	1.0	23.4%	10.3%	13.1%	3.2%	4.49	4.57	-0.0
2028	31	MLB CTX	TOR	8	0	8	34	8	3	1	0%	1.0	23.4%	10.3%	13.1%	3.2%	4.49	4.57	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		8	0	8	34	8	3	1	0%	1.0	23.4%	10.3%	13.1%	3.2%	4.49	4.19	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	200	75	25	0%	1.1	23.4%	10.3%	13.1%	3.2%	4.49	4.19	+0.9
Career	—	MLE		76	0	123	516	131	62	10	0%	1.6	25.5%	12.0%	13.4%	2.0%	3.59	3.57	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		124	0	200	839	214	101	17	0%	1.6	25.5%	12.0%	13.4%	2.0%	3.59	3.57	-0.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Sam Gardner (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.37	23.9%	10.1%	3.0%	—	4.57	23.4%	13.1%	22	+0.20	—	—	—
Joe Nelson R 2006 · 3.91 FIP	31	SU	3.91	22.8%	10.4%	2.6%	.258	4.05	23.4%	12.8%	94	+0.14	3.08	139	88
Neil Wagner R 2013 · 4.02 FIP	29	SU	4.02	20.5%	7.5%	3.1%	.306	4.05	19.8%	7.5%	43	+0.03	3.11	135	85
Jim Miller R 2012 · 4.56 FIP	30	SU	4.56	20.9%	11.8%	3.1%	.243	3.95	18.8%	14.7%	74	-0.61	3.95	140	84
Dustin Molleken R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	30	SU	3.74	20.4%	11.7%	1.6%	.287	3.90	20.6%	8.4%	77	+0.16	3.38	129	80
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	80
Erik Davis R 2017 · 4.25 FIP	30	SU	4.25	22.2%	11.1%	3.0%	.349	3.52	17.4%	8.5%	65	-0.73	3.05	227	79
Scott Atchison R 2007 · 4.55 FIP	31	SU	4.55	19.1%	7.6%	3.8%	.297	4.59	16.2%	9.5%	60	+0.04	2.52	340	77
Andrew Robinson R 2017 · 4.32 FIP	29	SU	4.32	23.4%	8.8%	3.8%	.245	—	—	—	—	—	3.19	160	77
Brian Schlitter R 2016 · 3.28 FIP	30	SU	3.28	20.6%	10.8%	1.0%	.333	3.81	14.4%	6.6%	110	+0.53	3.27	300	77
Hirokazu Sawamura R 2021 · 4.48 FIP	33	SU	4.48	26.2%	11.2%	4.0%	.263	4.02	18.1%	6.8%	51	-0.46	4.02	104	77
Kiko Calero R 2005 · 3.51 FIP	30	SU	3.51	22.7%	7.0%	2.6%	.252	3.23	23.3%	13.9%	99	-0.28	2.27	298	76
Marc Magliaro R 2018 · 3.94 FIP	28	SU	3.94	19.6%	7.3%	2.9%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.94	125	75
Leonel Campos R 2017 · 3.70 FIP	30	SU	3.70	25.7%	11.8%	2.3%	.241	—	—	—	—	—	2.62	168	75
Esteban Haro R 2016 · 4.55 FIP	30	SU	4.55	17.1%	10.2%	2.9%	.338	3.83	11.6%	6.3%	75	-0.72	3.76	164	75
Blake Smith R 2016 · 3.59 FIP	28	SU	3.59	22.4%	8.6%	2.4%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.17	124	75
Chris Smith R 2018 · 3.72 FIP	29	SU	3.72	24.1%	9.3%	2.7%	.319	—	—	—	—	—	2.17	199	74
Adrian Ramirez R 2019 · 4.29 FIP	31	SU	4.29	21.7%	6.3%	4.0%	.327	—	—	—	—	—	3.04	137	74
Grant Sides R 2019 · 3.31 FIP	30	SU	3.31	21.7%	9.8%	1.5%	.267	—	—	—	—	—	3.31	159	74
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2015 · 3.34 FIP	31	SU	3.34	26.5%	9.6%	2.3%	.241	3.89	23.3%	13.2%	105	+0.55	3.34	335	74
Kazuhiro Sasaki R 2000 · 3.93 FIP	32	SU	3.93	29.4%	9.8%	3.8%	.212	2.88	24.9%	19.3%	161	-1.05	2.76	223	74