Matthew Bollenbacher

P Fredericksburg Nationals

Age 27 RHP 6'1" / 203 lbs A

Overview

APROSPECT

MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	23	ROKWSH	3	4	2.45	3.37	7.1%	7.1%	—	K 7.1% · BB 7.1% · FIP 3.40
2024	24	AWSH	35	58	3.39	1.99	25.9%	5.2%	—	K 19.2% · BB 6.1% · FIP 2.78
2025	25	MIX3 levels	40	53	3.71	4.13	14.6%	10.2%	—	K 12.0% · BB 9.7% · FIP 4.34
2027PROJ	27	MLBWSH	30	31	4.67	4.67	17.9%	8.8%	-0.0
2028PROJ36% MLB	28	MLBWSH	10	11	4.69	4.72	18.4%	9.0%	-0.0

Next 2 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

CompsTyler Walker (age 28) · Francisco Rodriguez (age 27) · Michael Dimock (age 27)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 122114vR 106

ERA4.67

FIP4.67

K%17.9%

BB%8.8%

K-BB%9.2%

Proj IP31

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 31 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4045

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	23	ROK MLE	FCL Nationals	3	0	4	14	1	1	0	0%	1.2	7.1%	7.1%	0.0%	0.0%	2.45	3.40	—
2023	23	ROK RAW	FCL Nationals	3	0	4	14	1	1	0	0%	1.2	7.1%	7.1%	0.0%	0.0%	2.45	3.37	—
2024	24	A MLE	Fredericksburg Nationals	35	0	58	251	65	13	2	0%	1.7	19.2%	6.1%	13.1%	1.0%	3.39	2.78	—
2024	24	A MLE	Fredericksburg Nationals	35	0	58	251	65	13	2	0%	1.7	19.2%	6.1%	13.1%	1.0%	3.39	2.78	—
2024	24	A RAW	Fredericksburg Nationals	35	0	58	251	65	13	2	0%	1.7	25.9%	5.2%	20.7%	0.8%	3.39	1.99	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	40	0	53	226	33	23	4	0%	1.3	12.0%	9.7%	2.3%	1.9%	3.71	4.34	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	40	0	53	226	33	23	4	0%	1.3	12.0%	9.7%	2.3%	1.9%	3.71	4.34	—
2025	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	40	0	53	226	33	23	4	0%	1.3	14.6%	10.2%	4.4%	1.8%	3.71	4.13	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	27	MLB	WSH	30	0	31	131	23	12	4	0%	1.0	17.9%	8.8%	9.2%	2.9%	4.67	4.67	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	WSH	28	0	30	126	23	11	4	0%	1.1	18.4%	9.0%	9.4%	3.0%	4.69	4.72	-0.1
2028	28	MLB CTX	WSH	10	0	11	46	9	4	1	0%	1.1	18.4%	9.0%	9.4%	3.0%	4.69	4.72	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		10	0	11	46	8	4	1	0%	1.1	18.4%	9.0%	9.4%	3.0%	4.69	4.34	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	147	74	18	0%	1.0	18.4%	9.0%	9.4%	3.0%	4.69	4.34	+0.5
Career	—	MLE		78	0	115	491	76	38	7	0%	1.5	15.5%	7.8%	7.7%	1.3%	3.51	3.52	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		135	0	200	851	132	66	11	0%	1.5	15.5%	7.8%	7.7%	1.3%	3.51	3.52	-0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Matthew Bollenbacher (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.67	17.9%	8.8%	2.9%	—	4.72	18.4%	9.4%	30	+0.05	—	—	—
Tyler Walker R 2004 · 4.28 FIP	28	SU	4.28	17.5%	8.4%	2.9%	.311	3.77	18.5%	10.4%	101	-0.51	2.38	289	88
Francisco Rodriguez R 2010 · 4.33 FIP	27	SU	4.33	17.2%	11.0%	2.4%	.283	5.00	11.9%	3.4%	14	+0.67	3.16	334	88
Michael Dimock R 2017 · 4.12 FIP	27	SU	4.12	18.9%	7.8%	2.9%	.339	3.37	23.5%	12.8%	29	-0.75	3.08	166	87
Greg Burke R 2009 · 3.93 FIP	26	SU	3.93	16.2%	8.8%	2.0%	.295	—	—	—	—	—	3.61	139	87
C.C. Lee R 2014 · 3.77 FIP	27	SU	3.77	20.5%	8.7%	2.4%	.310	2.80	25.7%	17.6%	96	-0.97	2.59	149	87
Ryan Doolittle R 2015 · 4.03 FIP	27	SU	4.03	15.1%	6.7%	2.5%	.315	4.38	13.9%	6.8%	44	+0.35	4.03	101	87
J.J. Putz R 2004 · 4.57 FIP	27	SU	4.57	17.1%	7.3%	3.6%	.283	2.58	28.5%	23.0%	210	-1.99	1.43	563	87
Cristhian Martinez R 2009 · 3.51 FIP	27	SU	3.51	16.1%	6.2%	1.8%	.294	3.46	19.8%	14.7%	177	-0.05	3.09	204	86
Geoff Geary R 2004 · 4.85 FIP	27	SU	4.85	15.0%	6.5%	4.0%	.295	3.65	15.0%	9.5%	217	-1.20	3.16	345	86
Francisco Del Rosario R 2007 · 3.93 FIP	26	SU	3.93	19.7%	9.4%	2.4%	.356	—	—	—	—	—	3.93	194	85
Justin Lehr R 2005 · 4.58 FIP	27	SU	4.58	14.9%	10.4%	2.6%	.252	4.23	16.0%	8.0%	16	-0.35	4.23	148	85
Neil Wagner R 2013 · 4.02 FIP	29	SU	4.02	20.5%	7.5%	3.1%	.306	4.05	19.8%	7.5%	43	+0.03	3.11	135	85
Woo-Suk Go R 2024 · 4.80 FIP	25	SU	4.80	17.3%	8.8%	3.7%	.359	4.16	21.5%	10.2%	64	-0.64	3.57	116	84
Luis Mateo R 2017 · 4.60 FIP	27	SU	4.60	17.6%	11.2%	2.9%	.309	5.55	8.6%	-4.8%	43	+0.95	3.48	160	84
Chad Paronto R 2002 · 3.73 FIP	27	SU	3.73	14.9%	6.5%	1.9%	.263	—	—	—	—	—	3.65	160	84
Andrew Robinson R 2015 · 3.77 FIP	27	SU	3.77	17.6%	6.3%	2.5%	.246	3.64	22.7%	14.4%	97	-0.13	3.19	160	84
Hueston Morrill R 2024 · 4.54 FIP	24	SU	4.54	19.8%	8.7%	3.7%	.302	3.24	19.0%	8.2%	54	-1.30	3.09	102	84
Ricky Stone R 2002 · 4.16 FIP	27	SU	4.16	18.8%	9.3%	2.7%	.297	4.96	13.7%	7.4%	165	+0.80	4.16	243	83
Aaron Kurcz R 2017 · 4.84 FIP	26	SU	4.84	15.4%	8.4%	3.6%	.301	3.97	26.2%	21.8%	50	-0.87	3.31	213	83
Brandon Gomes R 2011 · 3.74 FIP	27	SU	3.74	20.0%	10.0%	1.9%	.284	4.17	22.3%	15.2%	71	+0.43	3.48	190	83

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	30	18.1%	8.9%	1.14	4.68
Sam Long ('25)	1.1	42	19.5%	9.7%	1.28	4.65
Randy Flores ('10)	1.2	42	17.7%	9.3%	1.04	4.61
Tyler Walker ('10)	1.5	50	18.9%	8.5%	1.11	4.23
Kevin Hickey ('81-'91, 0 WAR*)	1.2	47	17.7%*	10.2%*	1.10*	4.27*
Bob Macdonald ('90-'96, 1 WAR*)	1.2	59	18.3%*	9.8%*	1.20*	4.32*
Dave Leiper ('84-'96, 0 WAR*)	1.4	46	15.6%*	9.1%*	0.94*	4.28*