Matthew Bollenbacher
P
Fredericksburg Nationals
Age 26
RHP
6'1" / 203 lbs
A
peak 0.1 · 2026
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 31 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 119110vR 101
ERA4.40
FIP4.40
K%20.4%
BB%8.8%
K-BB%11.6%
ROS IP31
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 31 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 23 | ROK | FCL Nationals | 3 | 0 | 4 | 14 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 1.2 | 7.1% | 7.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2.45 | 3.40 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | ROK | FCL Nationals | 3 | 0 | 4 | 14 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 1.2 | 7.1% | 7.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2.45 | 3.37 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | A | Fredericksburg Nationals | 35 | 0 | 58 | 251 | 65 | 13 | 2 | 0% | 1.7 | 19.2% | 6.1% | 13.1% | 0.9% | 3.39 | 2.75 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | A | Fredericksburg Nationals | 35 | 0 | 58 | 251 | 65 | 13 | 2 | 0% | 1.7 | 25.9% | 5.2% | 20.7% | 0.8% | 3.39 | 1.99 | — |
| 2025 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 40 | 0 | 53 | 226 | 33 | 23 | 4 | 0% | 1.3 | 12.0% | 9.7% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 3.71 | 4.35 | — |
| 2025 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 40 | 0 | 53 | 226 | 33 | 23 | 4 | 0% | 1.3 | 14.6% | 10.2% | 4.4% | 1.8% | 3.71 | 4.13 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | MLB | WSH | 30 | 0 | 31 | 132 | 27 | 12 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.4% | 8.8% | 11.6% | 2.8% | 4.40 | 4.40 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | WSH | 29 | 0 | 31 | 130 | 27 | 12 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.7% | 8.9% | 11.8% | 2.9% | 4.42 | 4.43 | +0.0 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | WSH | 28 | 0 | 30 | 126 | 26 | 12 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.8% | 9.1% | 11.7% | 3.0% | 4.47 | 4.51 | +0.0 |
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | WSH | 10 | 0 | 11 | 46 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.7% | 8.9% | 11.8% | 2.9% | 4.42 | 4.43 | +0.0 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | WSH | 17 | 0 | 18 | 76 | 16 | 7 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.8% | 9.1% | 11.7% | 3.0% | 4.47 | 4.51 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 27 | 0 | 29 | 121 | 25 | 11 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.8% | 9.0% | 11.7% | 2.9% | 4.45 | 4.10 | +0.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 174 | 76 | 28 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.8% | 9.0% | 11.7% | 2.9% | 4.45 | 4.10 | +3.0 | ||
| Career | — | 78 | 0 | 115 | 491 | 76 | 38 | 7 | 0% | 1.5 | 15.5% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 1.3% | 3.51 | 3.50 | +2.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 135 | 0 | 200 | 851 | 132 | 66 | 11 | 0% | 1.5 | 15.5% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 1.3% | 3.51 | 3.50 | +4.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Matthew Bollenbacher (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.40 | 20.4% | 8.8% | 2.8% | — | 4.47 | 20.8% | 11.7% | 61 | +0.07 | — | — | — |
| Kaleb Bowman R 2026 · 3.80 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.80 | 22.0% | 7.5% | 2.9% | .333 | 4.41 | 18.1% | 6.6% | 151 | +0.61 | 3.74 | 185 | 89 |
| Jason Stoffel R 2026 · 3.54 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.54 | 23.4% | 10.1% | 2.1% | .267 | 3.70 | 27.2% | 19.2% | 59 | +0.16 | 3.54 | 103 | 88 |
| Jose Rafael De Paula R 2026 · 4.46 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.46 | 19.9% | 9.8% | 3.3% | .278 | 5.02 | 22.7% | 10.3% | 89 | +0.56 | 2.69 | 315 | 87 |
| Jack Hartman R 2026 · 4.36 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.36 | 20.9% | 8.8% | 3.5% | .310 | 4.40 | 17.6% | 5.6% | 46 | +0.04 | 3.42 | 161 | 87 |
| Shawn Armstrong R 2026 · 4.11 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.11 | 22.1% | 9.2% | 3.1% | .282 | 3.23 | 26.9% | 17.2% | 144 | -0.88 | 1.79 | 647 | 86 |
| Jesus Pirela R 2026 · 3.91 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.91 | 23.7% | 11.6% | 2.5% | .305 | 3.92 | 17.1% | 13.9% | 45 | +0.01 | 3.21 | 161 | 86 |
| Cole Johnson R 2026 · 3.56 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.56 | 17.4% | 8.4% | 1.6% | .311 | 3.48 | 14.0% | 9.2% | 49 | -0.08 | 3.48 | 101 | 86 |
| Carlos Gonzalez R 2026 · 3.88 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.88 | 18.2% | 8.7% | 2.2% | .266 | 4.15 | 14.3% | 2.3% | 36 | +0.27 | 3.73 | 154 | 86 |
| Colton Murray R 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.04 | 21.2% | 9.4% | 2.8% | .295 | 4.19 | 21.8% | 13.1% | 41 | +0.15 | 3.43 | 187 | 86 |
| Rob Scahill R 2028 · 3.83 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.83 | 16.9% | 7.7% | 2.1% | .288 | 3.34 | 17.9% | 10.1% | 171 | -0.49 | 2.93 | 201 | 85 |
| Kyle Winkler R 2026 · 3.60 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.60 | 23.1% | 8.7% | 2.5% | .234 | 3.53 | 18.4% | 8.3% | 43 | -0.07 | 2.96 | 114 | 85 |
| Ronald Peña R 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.34 | 23.4% | 11.6% | 3.2% | .273 | 4.52 | 18.7% | 7.1% | 88 | +0.18 | 3.57 | 187 | 85 |
| Daniel Corcino R 2026 · 3.75 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.75 | 21.7% | 11.4% | 1.9% | .292 | 4.81 | 19.0% | 7.9% | 223 | +1.06 | 3.75 | 299 | 85 |
| Seth Frankoff R 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.04 | 19.6% | 7.4% | 3.0% | .312 | 4.49 | 20.0% | 11.3% | 177 | +0.45 | 2.87 | 263 | 85 |
| Jack Dallas R 2026 · 3.54 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.54 | 18.9% | 6.8% | 2.1% | .292 | 5.11 | 20.4% | 15.3% | 41 | +1.57 | 3.08 | 210 | 84 |
| Carter Rustad R 2025 · 4.84 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.84 | 19.1% | 8.6% | 4.1% | .278 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.35 | 101 | 84 |
| Jhan Mariñez R 2026 · 3.46 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.46 | 23.1% | 9.3% | 2.1% | .244 | 3.76 | 18.9% | 11.1% | 168 | +0.30 | 3.23 | 253 | 84 |
| Jason Ruffcorn R 2026 · 3.97 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.97 | 20.6% | 9.1% | 2.6% | .255 | 4.64 | 19.2% | 8.3% | 100 | +0.67 | 3.97 | 248 | 84 |
| Chuck King R 2026 · 3.21 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.21 | 19.4% | 9.9% | 0.9% | .308 | 4.38 | 16.6% | 8.4% | 199 | +1.17 | 3.21 | 237 | 84 |
| Matt Pushard R 2026 · 3.77 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.77 | 24.1% | 8.9% | 2.9% | .242 | 3.56 | 22.5% | 12.4% | 100 | -0.21 | 3.05 | 205 | 84 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 31 | 20.7% | 9.0% | 1.11 | 4.43 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |
| Jim Johnson ('18) | 4 | 63 | 20.7% | 8.0% | 0.90 | 4.19 |
| Matt Albers ('19) | 5 | 49 | 20.3% | 8.3% | 1.37 | 4.21 |
| Carlos Torres ('17) | 3 | 71 | 20.1% | 9.0% | 0.97 | 3.77 |
| Scott Oberg ('19) | 5 | 51 | 21.5% | 9.3% | 0.91 | 3.85 |
| Blaine Hardy ('19) | 5 | 50 | 18.6% | 7.7% | 1.11 | 3.91 |