Matthew Bollenbacher
P
Fredericksburg Nationals
+0.3
WAR
Age 26
RHP
6'1" / 203 lbs
A
peak 0.3 · 2026
ERA4.40
FIP4.40
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%20.4%
BB%8.8%
K-BB%11.6%
IP45
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.3peak
2026
K†5050
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 23 | ROK | FCL Nationals | 3 | 0 | 4 | 14 | 1 | 1 | 0 | — | — | — | 2.45 | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | A | Fredericksburg Nationals | 35 | 0 | 58 | 251 | 65 | 13 | 2 | 19.2% | 6.1% | 1.0% | 3.39 | 2.79 | +1.4 |
| 2025 | 25 | AAA | Rochester Red Wings | 40 | 0 | 53 | 226 | 33 | 23 | 4 | 12.0% | 9.7% | 1.9% | 3.71 | 4.34 | +0.4 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | MLB | WSH | 45 | — | 45 | 189 | 39 | 17 | 5 | 20.4% | 8.8% | 2.8% | 4.40 | 4.40 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | WSH | 44 | — | 44 | 187 | 39 | 17 | 5 | 20.8% | 8.9% | 2.8% | 4.40 | 4.40 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | WSH | 44 | — | 44 | 185 | 39 | 17 | 5 | 20.9% | 9.0% | 2.9% | 4.41 | 4.42 | +0.3 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | WSH | 43 | — | 43 | 180 | 38 | 16 | 5 | 20.9% | 9.0% | 2.9% | 4.44 | 4.46 | +0.2 |
| 2030 | 30 | MLB | WSH | 41 | — | 41 | 175 | 36 | 16 | 5 | 20.8% | 9.2% | 3.0% | 4.49 | 4.52 | +0.2 |
| 2031 | 31 | MLB | WSH | 40 | — | 40 | 169 | 35 | 16 | 5 | 20.5% | 9.3% | 3.1% | 4.55 | 4.60 | +0.2 |
| 2032 | 32 | MLB | WSH | 38 | — | 38 | 162 | 33 | 15 | 5 | 20.3% | 9.4% | 3.1% | 4.63 | 4.68 | +0.1 |
| 2033 | 33 | MLB | WSH | 37 | — | 37 | 155 | 31 | 15 | 5 | 20.0% | 9.6% | 3.2% | 4.72 | 4.78 | +0.1 |
| 2034 | 34 | MLB | WSH | 35 | — | 35 | 147 | 29 | 14 | 5 | 19.6% | 9.8% | 3.3% | 4.82 | 4.89 | +0.0 |
| 2035 | 35 | MLB | WSH | 33 | — | 33 | 139 | 27 | 14 | 5 | 19.2% | 10.0% | 3.4% | 4.93 | 5.01 | -0.0 |
| 2036 | 36 | MLB | WSH | 31 | — | 31 | 130 | 24 | 13 | 5 | 18.8% | 10.3% | 3.6% | 5.06 | 5.14 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 78 | 0 | 115 | 491 | 76 | 38 | 7 | 15.5% | 7.8% | 1.4% | 3.51 | 3.52 | +2.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 135 | 0 | 200 | 851 | 132 | 66 | 12 | 15.5% | 7.8% | 1.4% | 3.51 | 3.52 | +4.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Matthew Bollenbacher (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.40 | 20.4% | 8.8% | 2.8% | — | 4.43 | 20.9% | 11.9% | 131 | +0.03 | — | — | — |
| Jason Stoffel R 2026 · 3.60 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.60 | 23.4% | 10.1% | 2.2% | .267 | 3.51 | 27.2% | 19.2% | 59 | -0.09 | 3.51 | 103 | 90 |
| Kaleb Bowman R 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.85 | 22.0% | 7.5% | 3.0% | .333 | 4.24 | 18.2% | 8.5% | 116 | +0.39 | 3.85 | 149 | 89 |
| Daniel Corcino R 2026 · 3.97 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.97 | 21.7% | 11.4% | 2.3% | .292 | 4.93 | 19.0% | 7.9% | 223 | +0.96 | 3.84 | 299 | 88 |
| Jack Hartman R 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.32 | 20.9% | 8.8% | 3.4% | .310 | 4.30 | 17.6% | 5.6% | 46 | -0.02 | 3.45 | 161 | 88 |
| Jack Dallas R 2026 · 3.58 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.58 | 18.9% | 6.8% | 2.2% | .292 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.03 | 169 | 87 |
| Juan Ramon Noriega R 2026 · 4.46 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.46 | 21.3% | 8.3% | 3.8% | .243 | 3.46 | 24.8% | 17.1% | 57 | -1.00 | 3.46 | 198 | 86 |
| Kyle Winkler R 2026 · 3.74 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.74 | 23.1% | 8.7% | 2.7% | .234 | 3.53 | 18.4% | 8.3% | 43 | -0.21 | 2.96 | 114 | 86 |
| Esmerling De La Rosa R 2026 · 3.37 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.37 | 20.5% | 7.2% | 2.0% | .313 | 4.87 | 14.1% | 5.8% | 66 | +1.50 | 2.90 | 237 | 86 |
| Jacob Bosiokovic R 2025 · 3.83 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.83 | 17.2% | 9.8% | 1.7% | .289 | 4.21 | 24.7% | 12.1% | 62 | +0.38 | 3.83 | 181 | 86 |
| Mitch Neunborn R 2026 · 3.70 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.70 | 24.5% | 9.5% | 2.7% | .232 | 5.13 | 18.0% | 7.0% | 180 | +1.43 | 3.70 | 223 | 85 |
| Matt Ramsey R 2027 · 3.21 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.21 | 24.2% | 9.6% | 1.7% | .330 | 3.20 | 23.6% | 14.6% | 81 | -0.01 | 2.42 | 125 | 85 |
| Jason Ruffcorn R 2026 · 4.14 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.14 | 20.6% | 9.1% | 2.9% | .255 | 4.04 | 20.3% | 8.9% | 66 | -0.10 | 4.04 | 214 | 85 |
| Rob Scahill R 2028 · 3.75 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.75 | 16.9% | 7.7% | 2.0% | .288 | 3.35 | 17.9% | 10.1% | 171 | -0.40 | 3.08 | 201 | 85 |
| Colton Murray R 2026 · 4.05 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.05 | 21.2% | 9.4% | 2.8% | .295 | 4.28 | 21.8% | 13.1% | 41 | +0.23 | 3.34 | 187 | 84 |
| Jose Rafael De Paula R 2026 · 4.45 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.45 | 19.9% | 9.8% | 3.3% | .278 | 4.78 | 22.7% | 10.3% | 89 | +0.33 | 2.65 | 315 | 84 |
| Alec Barger R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.86 | 18.4% | 9.8% | 1.9% | .289 | 5.96 | 18.9% | 6.1% | 33 | +2.10 | 3.86 | 242 | 83 |
| Carlos Gonzalez R 2026 · 3.79 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.79 | 18.2% | 8.7% | 2.1% | .266 | 4.46 | 14.3% | 2.3% | 36 | +0.67 | 3.75 | 154 | 83 |
| Shawn Armstrong R 2026 · 4.33 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.33 | 22.1% | 9.2% | 3.5% | .282 | 3.20 | 26.9% | 17.2% | 144 | -1.13 | 1.79 | 618 | 83 |
| R.J. Alaniz R 2026 · 3.90 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.90 | 20.7% | 8.9% | 2.6% | .318 | 3.29 | 23.8% | 15.0% | 96 | -0.61 | 2.45 | 362 | 83 |
| Randall Delgado R 2026 · 3.83 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.83 | 20.2% | 9.8% | 2.2% | .303 | 4.06 | 19.2% | 12.5% | 143 | +0.23 | 3.05 | 290 | 83 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.