Jonah Hurney
P
Dayton Dragons
+0.3
WAR
Age 26
LHP
5'8" / 185 lbs
A+
peak 0.5 · 2026
ERA4.31
FIP4.31
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%20.0%
BB%8.2%
K-BB%11.9%
IP61
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.5peak
2026
STUF3535
CTRL5555
CMD4040
K†4545
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 24 | A | Daytona Tortugas | 28 | 0 | 56 | 221 | 62 | 13 | 2 | 20.8% | 6.9% | 1.1% | 3.40 | 2.84 | +1.3 |
| 2025 | 25 | A+ | Dayton Dragons | 28 | 0 | 64 | 287 | 52 | 17 | 5 | 14.0% | 6.8% | 1.9% | 5.09 | 3.82 | +0.8 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | MLB | CIN | 11 | 11 | 61 | 258 | 47 | 22 | 7 | 18.2% | 8.7% | 2.7% | 4.53 | 4.53 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | CIN | 11 | 11 | 60 | 255 | 48 | 22 | 7 | 18.8% | 8.8% | 2.7% | 4.51 | 4.52 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | CIN | 60 | — | 60 | 252 | 48 | 22 | 7 | 19.1% | 8.9% | 2.8% | 4.51 | 4.53 | +0.3 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | CIN | 58 | — | 58 | 246 | 47 | 22 | 7 | 19.1% | 9.0% | 2.9% | 4.54 | 4.56 | +0.3 |
| 2030 | 30 | MLB | CIN | 57 | — | 57 | 239 | 46 | 22 | 7 | 19.1% | 9.1% | 2.9% | 4.59 | 4.62 | +0.2 |
| 2031 | 31 | MLB | CIN | 55 | — | 55 | 231 | 43 | 21 | 7 | 18.8% | 9.2% | 3.0% | 4.65 | 4.69 | +0.2 |
| 2032 | 32 | MLB | CIN | 52 | — | 52 | 221 | 41 | 21 | 7 | 18.6% | 9.3% | 3.1% | 4.73 | 4.78 | +0.1 |
| 2033 | 33 | MLB | CIN | 50 | — | 50 | 211 | 39 | 20 | 7 | 18.2% | 9.5% | 3.2% | 4.82 | 4.88 | +0.0 |
| 2034 | 34 | MLB | CIN | 48 | — | 48 | 201 | 36 | 20 | 7 | 17.9% | 9.7% | 3.3% | 4.92 | 4.99 | -0.0 |
| 2035 | 35 | MLB | CIN | 45 | — | 45 | 189 | 33 | 19 | 6 | 17.5% | 10.0% | 3.4% | 5.03 | 5.11 | -0.1 |
| 2036 | 36 | MLB | CIN | 42 | — | 42 | 177 | 30 | 18 | 6 | 17.1% | 10.2% | 3.5% | 5.16 | 5.24 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 56 | 0 | 119 | 508 | 86 | 35 | 8 | 16.9% | 6.9% | 1.6% | 4.30 | 3.39 | +2.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 94 | 0 | 200 | 851 | 144 | 59 | 13 | 16.9% | 6.9% | 1.6% | 4.30 | 3.39 | +4.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jonah Hurney (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.53 | 18.2% | 8.7% | 2.7% | — | 4.54 | 19.0% | 10.1% | 178 | +0.01 | — | — | — |
| James Paxton L 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.31 | 18.9% | 9.4% | 2.9% | .288 | 2.87 | 27.7% | 21.7% | 468 | -1.44 | 2.40 | 924 | 90 |
| Colton Johnson L 2026 · 3.91 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.91 | 20.8% | 11.0% | 2.1% | .309 | 4.53 | 12.2% | -0.4% | 48 | +0.62 | 3.91 | 106 | 89 |
| Braulio Lara L 2026 · 3.98 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.98 | 16.7% | 8.7% | 2.2% | .367 | 5.21 | 18.9% | 3.9% | 67 | +1.23 | 3.98 | 118 | 88 |
| Triston Polley L 2026 · 4.15 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.15 | 17.8% | 8.9% | 2.6% | .331 | 4.53 | 17.4% | -0.3% | 22 | +0.38 | 4.15 | 151 | 88 |
| Robbie Ross Jr. L 2026 · 3.83 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.83 | 20.5% | 6.9% | 2.9% | .287 | 3.19 | 22.3% | 9.6% | 66 | -0.64 | 2.79 | 159 | 88 |
| Ozzie Mendez L 2027 · 4.15 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.15 | 14.6% | 6.7% | 2.6% | .269 | 3.94 | 11.3% | 3.0% | 68 | -0.21 | 3.90 | 161 | 87 |
| Dylan Phillips L 2026 · 4.27 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.27 | 16.9% | 10.3% | 2.4% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.64 | 172 | 87 |
| Juan Grullon L 2026 · 4.67 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.67 | 19.8% | 10.9% | 3.4% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.67 | 134 | 87 |
| Jordan Carr L 2026 · 3.48 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.48 | 17.2% | 8.5% | 1.4% | .270 | 4.47 | 13.1% | 4.3% | 91 | +0.99 | 3.48 | 223 | 86 |
| Michael Johnson L 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.26 | 21.7% | 9.5% | 3.2% | .272 | 5.26 | 13.4% | 3.4% | 67 | +1.00 | 3.88 | 256 | 86 |
| Ben Holmes L 2026 · 4.05 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.05 | 19.1% | 9.3% | 2.5% | .264 | 5.57 | 19.7% | 8.6% | 61 | +1.52 | 3.09 | 451 | 86 |
| Hayden Howard L 2025 · 3.76 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.76 | 17.5% | 8.4% | 1.9% | .328 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.76 | 200 | 86 |
| Will Gilbert L 2025 · 4.40 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.40 | 19.9% | 10.3% | 3.0% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.92 | 141 | 85 |
| Patrick McCoy L 2026 · 3.80 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.80 | 14.4% | 8.0% | 1.6% | .336 | 4.31 | 15.4% | 1.6% | 44 | +0.51 | 3.80 | 113 | 85 |
| Carson Skipper L 2025 · 3.79 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.79 | 19.9% | 9.1% | 2.2% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.01 | 176 | 85 |
| Aríel Miranda L 2026 · 3.47 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.47 | 18.3% | 10.2% | 1.1% | .280 | 5.07 | 19.2% | 10.2% | 364 | +1.60 | 3.47 | 431 | 85 |
| Irwin Delgado L 2026 · 4.74 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.74 | 14.4% | 9.6% | 3.0% | .349 | 3.52 | 16.2% | 7.6% | 237 | -1.22 | 3.50 | 383 | 85 |
| Ryan Verdugo L 2028 · 3.61 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.61 | 19.8% | 10.8% | 1.5% | .281 | 3.36 | 22.7% | 17.3% | 82 | -0.25 | 3.36 | 153 | 85 |
| Scott Alexander L 2026 · 3.50 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.50 | 17.6% | 6.7% | 1.9% | .240 | 3.29 | 19.9% | 10.8% | 184 | -0.21 | 2.82 | 414 | 84 |
| Mac Lardner L 2025 · 3.70 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.70 | 17.5% | 9.4% | 1.6% | .308 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.70 | 186 | 84 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.