Paxton Thompson — OGILVIE

Paxton Thompson P Hub City Spartanburgers

Age 27 RHP 6'1" / 205 lbs A+

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION0 act + 24 ip · rates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 122114vR 106

ERA4.69

FIP4.69

K%18.9%

BB%9.4%

K-BB%9.5%

ROS IP24

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 24 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4545

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	5	0	6	27	10	2	2	0%	1.1	37.0%	7.4%	29.6%	7.4%	6.35	4.98	—
2023	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	5	0	6	27	10	2	2	0%	1.1	37.0%	7.4%	29.6%	7.4%	6.35	5.22	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	0	49	196	53	15	4	0%	1.4	20.4%	8.9%	11.4%	2.6%	2.74	3.92	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	0	49	196	53	15	4	0%	1.4	20.4%	8.9%	11.4%	2.6%	2.74	3.92	—
2024	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	35	0	49	196	53	15	4	0%	1.4	27.0%	7.7%	19.4%	2.0%	2.74	2.92	—
2025	25	A+ MLE	Jersey Shore BlueClaws	27	0	37	166	30	14	3	0%	1.4	13.9%	9.7%	4.2%	2.2%	5.59	4.34	—
2025	25	A+ MLE	Jersey Shore BlueClaws	27	0	37	166	30	14	3	0%	1.4	13.9%	9.7%	4.2%	2.2%	5.59	4.34	—
2025	25	A+ RAW	Jersey Shore BlueClaws	27	0	37	166	30	14	3	0%	1.4	18.1%	8.4%	9.6%	1.8%	5.59	3.67	—
2026	26	A+ MLE	Hub City Spartanburgers	2	0	3	21	4	3	1	0%	1.7	19.0%	14.3%	4.8%	4.8%	24.30	5.91	—
2026	26	A+ MLE	Hub City Spartanburgers	2	0	3	21	4	3	1	0%	1.7	19.0%	14.3%	4.8%	4.8%	24.30	5.91	—
2026	26	A+ RAW	Hub City Spartanburgers	2	0	3	21	4	3	1	0%	1.7	19.0%	14.3%	4.8%	4.8%	24.30	7.30	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	27	MLB	TEX	23	0	24	101	19	10	3	0%	1.0	18.9%	9.4%	9.5%	2.9%	4.69	4.69	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	TEX	22	0	23	98	19	9	3	0%	1.1	19.2%	9.5%	9.7%	3.0%	4.70	4.73	-0.0
2028	28	MLB CTX	TEX	8	0	8	34	6	3	1	0%	1.0	19.2%	9.5%	9.7%	3.0%	4.70	4.73	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		8	0	8	36	7	3	1	0%	1.1	19.2%	9.5%	9.7%	3.0%	4.70	4.35	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	165	71	24	0%	1.0	19.2%	9.5%	9.7%	3.0%	4.70	4.35	+0.5
Career	—	MLE		69	0	95	410	77	39	12	0%	1.4	18.8%	9.4%	9.4%	2.8%	4.81	4.26	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		145	0	200	860	162	81	24	0%	1.4	18.8%	9.4%	9.4%	2.8%	4.81	4.26	-0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Paxton Thompson (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.69	18.9%	9.4%	2.9%	—	4.73	19.2%	9.7%	23	+0.04	—	—	—
C.C. Lee R 2014 · 3.77 FIP	27	SU	3.77	20.5%	8.7%	2.4%	.310	2.80	25.7%	17.6%	96	-0.97	2.59	149	88
Francisco Rodriguez R 2010 · 4.33 FIP	27	SU	4.33	17.2%	11.0%	2.4%	.283	5.00	11.9%	3.4%	14	+0.67	3.16	334	87
Michael Dimock R 2017 · 4.12 FIP	27	SU	4.12	18.9%	7.8%	2.9%	.339	3.37	23.5%	12.8%	29	-0.75	3.08	166	87
Francisco Del Rosario R 2007 · 3.93 FIP	26	SU	3.93	19.7%	9.4%	2.4%	.356	—	—	—	—	—	3.93	194	86
Greg Burke R 2009 · 3.93 FIP	26	SU	3.93	16.2%	8.8%	2.0%	.295	—	—	—	—	—	3.61	139	86
Tyler Walker R 2004 · 4.28 FIP	28	SU	4.28	17.5%	8.4%	2.9%	.311	3.77	18.5%	10.4%	101	-0.51	2.38	289	86
Joe Colón J R 2017 · 4.25 FIP	27	SU	4.25	20.4%	12.1%	2.4%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	3.27	113	85
Neil Wagner R 2013 · 4.02 FIP	29	SU	4.02	20.5%	7.5%	3.1%	.306	4.05	19.8%	7.5%	43	+0.03	3.11	135	85
Scott Proctor R 2004 · 5.43 FIP	27	SU	5.43	17.8%	11.9%	4.2%	.308	4.36	18.8%	11.0%	233	-1.07	3.68	337	84
Brandon Gomes R 2011 · 3.74 FIP	27	SU	3.74	20.0%	10.0%	1.9%	.284	4.17	22.3%	15.2%	71	+0.43	3.48	190	84
J.J. Putz R 2004 · 4.57 FIP	27	SU	4.57	17.1%	7.3%	3.6%	.283	2.58	28.5%	23.0%	210	-1.99	1.43	563	84
Cristhian Martinez R 2009 · 3.51 FIP	27	SU	3.51	16.1%	6.2%	1.8%	.294	3.46	19.8%	14.7%	177	-0.05	3.09	204	84
Justin Lehr R 2005 · 4.58 FIP	27	SU	4.58	14.9%	10.4%	2.6%	.252	4.23	16.0%	8.0%	16	-0.35	4.23	148	84
Luis Mateo R 2017 · 4.60 FIP	27	SU	4.60	17.6%	11.2%	2.9%	.309	5.55	8.6%	-4.8%	43	+0.95	3.48	160	83
Hueston Morrill R 2024 · 4.54 FIP	24	SU	4.54	19.8%	8.7%	3.7%	.302	3.24	19.0%	8.2%	54	-1.30	3.09	102	83
Geoff Geary R 2004 · 4.85 FIP	27	SU	4.85	15.0%	6.5%	4.0%	.295	3.65	15.0%	9.5%	217	-1.20	3.16	345	83
Jeff Fulchino R 2008 · 4.62 FIP	28	SU	4.62	16.7%	11.1%	2.8%	.380	3.86	21.0%	12.4%	164	-0.76	3.36	178	83
Ryan Doolittle R 2015 · 4.03 FIP	27	SU	4.03	15.1%	6.7%	2.5%	.315	4.38	13.9%	6.8%	44	+0.35	4.03	101	83
Woo-Suk Go R 2024 · 4.80 FIP	25	SU	4.80	17.3%	8.8%	3.7%	.359	4.16	21.5%	10.2%	64	-0.64	3.57	116	83
Ross Wolf R 2010 · 3.95 FIP	27	SU	3.95	16.1%	8.9%	2.0%	.268	4.37	10.1%	3.3%	48	+0.42	3.43	179	83