Grant Hartwig

P St. Paul Saints

Age 29 RHP 6'5" / 235 lbs AAA peak 0.1 · 2027

Overview

AAARPROOKIE

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	26	MIX4 levels	42	2	49	4.96	4.04	21.1%	11.2%	0.3	K 18.7% · BB 10.1% · FIP 3.46
2025	27	AAANYM	21	0	24	3.42	4.20	29.2%	8.0%	—	K 25.1% · BB 7.2% · FIP 4.18
2026	28	AAAMIN	34	0	40	6.30	3.92	19.9%	9.9%	—	K 17.1% · BB 9.0% · FIP 4.05
2027PROJ	29	MLBMIN	55	0	58	4.68	4.68	19.0%	9.7%	-0.1
2028PROJ37% MLB	30	MLBMIN	19	0	20	4.77	4.85	18.7%	10.0%	-0.1
2029PROJ55% MLB	31	MLBMIN	27	0	28	4.92	5.04	18.3%	10.3%	-0.2

Last 3 seasons WAR 0.3 · Next 3 projected WAR -0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff42Control45Command41FB velo53

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 98%

CompsJim Miller (age 30) · Dustin Molleken (age 30) · Angel Castro (age 32)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 122114vR 106

ERA4.68

FIP4.68

K%19.0%

BB%9.7%

K-BB%9.3%

Proj IP58

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 58 IP

Grades · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL4545

CMD4040

K†4545

SI (35%)

FB (39%)

SL (33%)

CT (21%)

CH (7%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	8	3	12	51	12	4	1	38%	1.5	23.5%	7.8%	15.7%	2.0%	3.09	3.18	—
2021	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	8	3	12	51	12	4	1	38%	1.5	23.5%	7.8%	15.7%	2.0%	3.09	3.19	—
2022	24	MIX MLE	4 levels	39	0	57	234	83	24	1	0%	1.5	27.6%	11.2%	16.4%	0.6%	1.75	2.52	—
2022	24	MIX RAW	4 levels	39	0	57	234	83	24	1	0%	1.5	35.5%	10.3%	25.2%	0.4%	1.75	1.67	—
2023	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	52	0	64	295	67	31	6	0%	1.2	21.0%	9.9%	11.0%	2.1%	4.92	3.76	+0.6
2023	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	52	0	64	295	67	31	6	0%	1.2	22.7%	10.5%	12.2%	2.0%	4.92	3.68	+0.7
2024	26	MIX MLE	4 levels	42	2	49	223	47	25	5	5%	1.2	18.7%	10.1%	8.7%	1.2%	4.96	3.46	+0.6
2024	26	MIX MLE	4 levels	42	2	49	223	47	25	5	5%	1.2	18.7%	10.1%	8.7%	1.2%	4.96	3.46	+0.6
2024	26	MIX RAW	4 levels	42	2	49	223	47	25	5	5%	1.2	21.1%	11.2%	9.9%	2.2%	4.96	4.04	+0.3
2025	27	AAA MLE	Syracuse Mets	21	0	24	113	33	9	5	0%	1.1	25.1%	7.2%	17.9%	4.2%	3.42	4.18	—
2025	27	AAA MLE	Syracuse Mets	21	0	24	113	33	9	5	0%	1.1	25.1%	7.2%	17.9%	4.2%	3.42	4.18	—
2025	27	AAA RAW	Syracuse Mets	21	0	24	113	33	9	5	0%	1.1	29.2%	8.0%	21.2%	4.4%	3.42	4.20	—
2026	28	AAA MLE	St. Paul Saints	34	0	40	191	38	19	4	0%	1.2	17.1%	9.0%	8.2%	2.3%	6.30	4.05	—
2026	28	AAA MLE	St. Paul Saints	34	0	40	191	38	19	4	0%	1.2	17.1%	9.0%	8.2%	2.3%	6.30	4.05	—
2026	28	AAA RAW	St. Paul Saints	34	0	40	191	38	19	4	0%	1.2	19.9%	9.9%	9.9%	2.1%	6.30	3.92	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			32	0	42	189	34	18	4	0%	1.3	18.0%	9.5%	8.5%	2.1%	5.14	4.00	+0.3
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	29	MLB	MIN	55	0	58	245	47	24	7	0%	1.1	19.0%	9.7%	9.3%	2.9%	4.68	4.68	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	30	MLB MLE	MIN	52	0	55	231	43	23	7	0%	1.1	18.7%	10.0%	8.8%	3.1%	4.77	4.85	-0.2
2029	31	MLB MLE	MIN	49	0	51	216	40	22	7	0%	1.0	18.3%	10.3%	8.1%	3.3%	4.92	5.04	-0.3
2028	30	MLB CTX	MIN	19	0	20	84	16	8	3	0%	1.1	18.7%	10.0%	8.8%	3.1%	4.77	4.85	-0.1
2029	31	MLB CTX	MIN	27	0	28	118	22	12	4	0%	1.0	18.3%	10.3%	8.1%	3.3%	4.92	5.04	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		78	0	90	393	72	39	11	0%	1.2	18.3%	9.8%	8.4%	2.7%	4.99	4.28	+0.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		173	0	200	870	159	86	24	0%	1.2	18.3%	9.8%	8.4%	2.7%	4.99	4.28	+0.6
Career	—	MLE		196	5	245	1107	241	107	21	3%	1.2	21.8%	9.7%	12.1%	1.9%	4.19	3.50	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		160	4	200	904	197	87	17	3%	1.2	21.8%	9.7%	12.1%	1.9%	4.19	3.50	-0.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Grant Hartwig (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.68	19.0%	9.7%	2.9%	—	4.94	18.5%	8.4%	106	+0.26	—	—	—
Jim Miller R 2012 · 4.56 FIP	30	SU	4.56	20.9%	11.8%	3.1%	.243	3.95	18.8%	14.7%	74	-0.61	3.95	140	87
Dustin Molleken R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	30	SU	3.74	20.4%	11.7%	1.6%	.287	3.90	20.6%	8.4%	77	+0.16	3.38	129	86
Angel Castro R 2015 · 4.50 FIP	32	SU	4.50	15.9%	8.0%	3.1%	.268	4.28	13.6%	5.5%	231	-0.22	3.51	292	86
Tyler Walker R 2005 · 4.19 FIP	29	SU	4.19	19.4%	7.5%	3.2%	.303	3.61	19.7%	11.3%	93	-0.58	2.38	289	86
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	86
Neil Wagner R 2013 · 4.02 FIP	29	SU	4.02	20.5%	7.5%	3.1%	.306	4.05	19.8%	7.5%	43	+0.03	3.11	135	86
Joe Nelson R 2006 · 3.91 FIP	31	SU	3.91	22.8%	10.4%	2.6%	.258	4.05	23.4%	12.8%	94	+0.14	3.08	139	85
Bo Schultz R 2015 · 4.30 FIP	29	SU	4.30	18.3%	7.9%	3.2%	.218	3.49	15.1%	8.9%	77	-0.81	2.73	141	85
Diego Moreno R 2016 · 3.75 FIP	29	SU	3.75	21.0%	8.2%	2.5%	.347	3.13	17.8%	11.9%	54	-0.62	2.29	187	84
Gregory Infante R 2016 · 4.47 FIP	29	SU	4.47	19.0%	12.3%	2.6%	.333	3.43	22.5%	15.8%	120	-1.04	2.97	230	83
Kevin Gryboski R 2003 · 3.67 FIP	29	SU	3.67	16.8%	8.9%	1.6%	.295	3.92	9.4%	0.2%	82	+0.25	3.67	178	83
Francisco Mendoza R 2016 · 3.81 FIP	28	SU	3.81	17.9%	7.7%	2.3%	.344	—	—	—	—	—	3.13	120	83
Brandon Cunniff R 2017 · 4.79 FIP	28	SU	4.79	20.1%	11.6%	3.5%	.275	6.80	13.9%	-1.9%	30	+2.01	3.89	180	82
Santiago Casilla R 2009 · 4.44 FIP	29	SU	4.44	15.0%	9.4%	2.6%	.324	3.29	22.1%	13.0%	170	-1.15	2.76	647	81
Matt Lindstrom R 2009 · 4.12 FIP	29	SU	4.12	17.8%	10.0%	2.3%	.320	3.16	17.7%	11.7%	154	-0.96	2.40	443	81
Marc Magliaro R 2018 · 3.94 FIP	28	SU	3.94	19.6%	7.3%	2.9%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.94	125	80
Tyler Sturdevant R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	29	SU	4.37	21.3%	8.5%	3.6%	.241	3.97	18.5%	11.9%	118	-0.40	3.44	149	80
Coleman Huntley III R 2022 · 4.05 FIP	29	SU	4.05	24.4%	10.9%	3.0%	.311	2.38	20.9%	12.6%	25	-1.67	2.38	160	80
Adrian Garza R 2017 · 4.47 FIP	29	SU	4.47	16.0%	7.0%	3.4%	.351	5.18	9.7%	4.1%	113	+0.71	3.94	229	80
Ronald Peña R 2021 · 4.49 FIP	29	SU	4.49	16.5%	10.4%	2.7%	.288	—	—	—	—	—	3.72	187	79

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	52	18.6%	10.0%	1.11	4.86
Josias Manzanillo ('04)	1.7	57	20.0%	10.2%	1.21	4.71
Vic Darensbourg ('05)	1.5	50	17.0%	9.3%	1.01	4.96
Kevin Hickey ('81-'91, 0 WAR*)	1.2	47	17.7%*	10.2%*	1.10*	4.27*
Bob Macdonald ('90-'96, 1 WAR*)	1.2	59	18.3%*	9.8%*	1.20*	4.32*
Tom Martin ('07)	1.6	53	15.8%	10.1%	1.02	4.92
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*