Houston Harding

P Salt Lake Bees

Age 29 LHP 6'1" / 230 lbs AAA

Overview

AAAPROSPECT

MLB%10%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	26	MIX3 levels	21	14	80	3.14	3.81	20.8%	10.5%	—	K 16.5% · BB 11.2% · FIP 4.54
2025	27	MIX2 levels	8	0	20	5.03	3.35	20.7%	10.9%	—	K 18.5% · BB 8.4% · FIP 3.41
2026	28	MIX3 levels	25	2	52	6.97	6.78	11.5%	13.8%	—	K 9.3% · BB 12.7% · FIP 5.91
2027PROJ	29	MLBLAA	22	0	23	5.62	5.62	12.4%	11.5%	-0.3
2028PROJ37% MLB	30	MLBLAA	8	0	8	5.59	5.66	13.1%	11.6%	-0.1

Next 2 projected WAR -0.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 99%

CompsJimmy Reyes (age 28) · John Rheinecker (age 28) · Kelvin Marte (age 29)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 124132vR 140

ERA5.62

FIP5.62

K%12.4%

BB%11.5%

K-BB%0.9%

Proj IP23

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 23 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†3030

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	4	0	10	43	8	1	1	0%	2.5	18.6%	2.3%	16.3%	2.3%	4.50	3.10	—
2021	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	4	0	10	43	8	1	1	0%	2.5	18.6%	2.3%	16.3%	2.3%	4.50	3.10	—
2022	24	A+ MLE	Tri-City Dust Devils	23	0	37	164	43	15	5	0%	1.6	20.2%	10.5%	9.7%	4.7%	4.58	5.30	—
2022	24	A+ RAW	Tri-City Dust Devils	23	0	37	164	43	15	5	0%	1.6	26.2%	9.1%	17.1%	3.0%	4.58	3.74	—
2023	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	2	60	273	61	37	9	7%	2.2	17.9%	15.0%	2.9%	4.1%	6.00	5.74	—
2023	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	2	60	273	61	37	9	7%	2.2	22.3%	13.6%	8.8%	3.3%	6.00	4.87	—
2024	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	21	14	80	342	71	36	7	67%	3.8	16.5%	11.2%	5.2%	2.6%	3.14	4.54	—
2024	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	21	14	80	342	71	36	7	67%	3.8	16.5%	11.2%	5.2%	2.6%	3.14	4.54	—
2024	26	MIX RAW	3 levels	21	14	80	342	71	36	7	67%	3.8	20.8%	10.5%	10.2%	2.0%	3.14	3.81	—
2025	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	8	0	20	92	19	10	1	0%	2.5	18.5%	8.4%	10.1%	1.5%	5.03	3.41	—
2025	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	8	0	20	92	19	10	1	0%	2.5	18.5%	8.4%	10.1%	1.5%	5.03	3.41	—
2025	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	8	0	20	92	19	10	1	0%	2.5	20.7%	10.9%	9.8%	1.1%	5.03	3.35	—
2026	28	MIX MLE	3 levels	25	2	52	253	29	35	11	8%	2.1	9.3%	12.7%	-3.4%	3.6%	6.97	5.91	—
2026	28	MIX MLE	3 levels	25	2	52	253	29	35	11	8%	2.1	9.3%	12.7%	-3.4%	3.6%	6.97	5.91	—
2026	28	MIX RAW	3 levels	25	2	52	253	29	35	11	8%	2.1	11.5%	13.8%	-2.4%	4.3%	6.97	6.78	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	29	MLB	LAA	22	0	23	97	12	11	3	0%	1.0	12.4%	11.5%	0.9%	3.1%	5.62	5.62	-0.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	30	MLB MLE	LAA	21	0	22	92	12	11	3	0%	1.0	13.1%	11.6%	1.5%	3.3%	5.59	5.66	-0.3
2028	30	MLB CTX	LAA	8	0	8	34	4	4	1	0%	1.0	13.1%	11.6%	1.5%	3.3%	5.59	5.66	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		8	0	8	34	4	4	1	0%	1.0	13.1%	11.6%	1.5%	3.3%	5.59	5.28	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	100	100	25	0%	1.1	13.1%	11.6%	1.5%	3.3%	5.59	5.28	-1.7
Career	—	MLE		108	18	259	1167	187	137	39	17%	2.4	16.0%	11.8%	4.2%	3.4%	4.97	5.08	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		83	14	200	901	144	106	30	17%	2.4	16.0%	11.8%	4.2%	3.4%	4.97	5.08	-2.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Houston Harding (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.62	12.4%	11.5%	3.1%	—	5.66	13.1%	1.5%	22	+0.04	—	—	—
Jimmy Reyes L 2017 · 4.92 FIP	28	SU	4.92	13.8%	8.0%	3.6%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	3.02	200	74
John Rheinecker L 2007 · 5.13 FIP	28	SW	5.13	16.7%	10.9%	3.8%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	4.14	121	73
Kelvin Marte L 2017 · 4.74 FIP	29	SW	4.74	16.1%	11.4%	2.8%	.300	5.25	12.0%	1.2%	71	+0.51	3.44	360	73
Randy Keisler L 2005 · 5.07 FIP	29	SW	5.07	16.4%	9.9%	3.8%	.295	5.51	6.5%	0.0%	17	+0.44	5.07	135	72
Kyle Hunter L 2017 · 4.50 FIP	28	SU	4.50	14.0%	6.1%	3.3%	.335	—	—	—	—	—	4.32	188	69
Ron Mahay L 2000 · 6.03 FIP	29	SU	6.03	16.1%	12.1%	5.0%	.353	4.58	22.4%	12.1%	81	-1.45	3.14	568	69
Eric DuBose L 2005 · 5.45 FIP	29	SW	5.45	12.6%	14.1%	3.0%	.253	—	—	—	—	—	3.92	178	69
Everett Teaford L 2012 · 5.47 FIP	28	SW	5.47	13.3%	8.0%	4.5%	.291	4.42	13.9%	6.3%	103	-1.05	4.42	208	69
Stephen Randolph L 2003 · 4.83 FIP	29	SU	4.83	18.5%	14.8%	2.6%	.247	5.69	15.8%	-3.0%	82	+0.86	4.83	155	69
Doug Slaten L 2008 · 4.56 FIP	28	SU	4.56	13.6%	8.8%	2.7%	.264	3.63	19.2%	10.2%	57	-0.93	3.22	139	68
Bryan Harper L 2018 · 4.63 FIP	28	SU	4.63	14.9%	13.9%	1.9%	.288	—	—	—	—	—	4.13	133	68
Mike Gosling L 2009 · 5.66 FIP	28	SU	5.66	11.4%	8.8%	4.4%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	4.44	116	68
Juan Pablo Perez L 2007 · 5.32 FIP	28	SU	5.32	17.5%	14.0%	3.5%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	1.75	104	68
Greg Nappo L 2017 · 6.26 FIP	28	SU	6.26	12.3%	12.6%	4.7%	.257	—	—	—	—	—	3.37	144	67
Andrew Barbosa L 2017 · 4.67 FIP	29	SU	4.67	20.2%	9.6%	3.8%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	2.70	175	67
Colt Hynes L 2013 · 4.76 FIP	28	SU	4.76	15.5%	8.3%	3.5%	.361	3.49	19.3%	12.8%	96	-1.27	3.42	169	67
Tyler Alexander L 2021 · 5.27 FIP	29	SW	5.27	15.7%	10.7%	3.9%	.272	—	—	—	—	—	5.27	128	66
Keith Hessler L 2018 · 4.96 FIP	29	SU	4.96	19.8%	13.3%	3.4%	.348	—	—	—	—	—	3.31	228	65
Joey Eischen L 2001 · 5.00 FIP	31	SU	5.00	14.5%	11.5%	3.0%	.269	3.14	20.9%	14.9%	125	-1.86	2.13	294	65
Ashur Tolliver L 2017 · 5.03 FIP	29	SU	5.03	13.8%	18.9%	1.3%	.319	—	—	—	—	—	3.49	134	64