Spencer Stockton

P Louisville Bats

Age 31 RHP 6'3" / 210 lbs AAA

Overview

AAAPROSPECT

MLB%10%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2022	26	MIX2 levels	32	2	64	3.50	3.36	25.3%	9.3%	—	K 20.2% · BB 10.3% · FIP 4.18
2023	27	AACIN	28	0	43	3.56	4.12	25.8%	11.0%	—	K 20.9% · BB 12.1% · FIP 5.00
2024	28	AAACIN	12	0	20	7.65	6.85	16.8%	14.7%	—	K 14.5% · BB 13.3% · FIP 6.42
2027PROJ	31	MLBCIN	10	0	11	4.71	4.71	20.7%	10.2%	-0.0
2028PROJ37% MLB	32	MLBCIN	7	0	7	4.81	4.90	20.5%	10.5%	-0.0

Next 2 projected WAR -0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

CompsJim Miller (age 30) · Dustin Molleken (age 31) · Joe Nelson (age 31)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 123115vR 106

ERA4.71

FIP4.71

K%20.7%

BB%10.2%

K-BB%10.5%

Proj IP11

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 11 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2019	23	ROK MLE	AZL Reds	6	4	34	133	41	5	0	67%	5.6	21.0%	4.7%	16.3%	0.0%	2.14	1.93	—
2019	23	ROK RAW	AZL Reds	6	4	34	133	41	5	0	67%	5.6	30.8%	3.8%	27.1%	0.0%	2.14	1.11	—
2021	25	A+ MLE	Dayton Dragons	26	9	72	306	74	25	8	35%	2.8	18.6%	9.4%	9.2%	3.4%	5.62	4.59	—
2021	25	A+ RAW	Dayton Dragons	26	9	72	306	74	25	8	35%	2.8	24.2%	8.2%	16.0%	2.6%	5.62	3.53	—
2022	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	2	64	269	68	25	6	6%	2.0	20.2%	10.3%	9.9%	2.7%	3.50	4.18	—
2022	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	32	2	64	269	68	25	6	6%	2.0	25.3%	9.3%	16.0%	2.2%	3.50	3.36	—
2023	27	AA MLE	Chattanooga Lookouts	28	0	43	182	47	20	6	0%	1.5	20.9%	12.1%	8.8%	3.9%	3.56	5.00	—
2023	27	AA RAW	Chattanooga Lookouts	28	0	43	182	47	20	6	0%	1.5	25.8%	11.0%	14.8%	3.3%	3.56	4.12	—
2024	28	AAA MLE	Louisville Bats	12	0	20	95	16	14	5	0%	1.7	14.5%	13.3%	1.2%	5.2%	7.65	6.42	—
2024	28	AAA MLE	Louisville Bats	12	0	20	95	16	14	5	0%	1.7	14.5%	13.3%	1.2%	5.2%	7.65	6.42	—
2024	28	AAA RAW	Louisville Bats	12	0	20	95	16	14	5	0%	1.7	16.8%	14.7%	2.1%	5.3%	7.65	6.85	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	31	MLB	CIN	10	0	11	46	10	5	1	0%	1.1	20.7%	10.2%	10.5%	3.1%	4.71	4.71	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	32	MLB MLE	CIN	19	0	20	84	17	9	3	0%	1.1	20.5%	10.5%	10.0%	3.3%	4.81	4.90	-0.1
2028	32	MLB CTX	CIN	7	0	7	30	6	3	1	0%	1.0	20.5%	10.5%	10.0%	3.3%	4.81	4.90	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		7	0	7	31	6	3	1	0%	1.1	20.5%	10.5%	10.0%	3.3%	4.81	4.52	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	163	82	27	0%	1.1	20.5%	10.5%	10.0%	3.3%	4.81	4.52	+0.1
Career	—	MLE		104	15	233	985	191	97	30	14%	2.2	19.4%	9.9%	9.5%	3.0%	4.33	4.37	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		89	13	200	845	164	83	26	14%	2.2	19.4%	9.9%	9.5%	3.0%	4.33	4.37	-0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Spencer Stockton (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.71	20.7%	10.2%	3.1%	—	4.90	20.5%	10.0%	20	+0.19	—	—	—
Jim Miller R 2012 · 4.56 FIP	30	SU	4.56	20.9%	11.8%	3.1%	.243	3.95	18.8%	14.7%	74	-0.61	3.95	140	79
Dustin Molleken R 2016 · 4.04 FIP	31	SU	4.04	19.6%	12.1%	1.9%	.276	3.38	24.3%	11.9%	16	-0.66	3.38	129	76
Joe Nelson R 2006 · 3.91 FIP	31	SU	3.91	22.8%	10.4%	2.6%	.258	4.05	23.4%	12.8%	94	+0.14	3.08	139	76
Angel Castro R 2015 · 4.50 FIP	32	SU	4.50	15.9%	8.0%	3.1%	.268	4.28	13.6%	5.5%	231	-0.22	3.51	292	76
Mike Broadway R 2018 · 4.65 FIP	31	SU	4.65	23.0%	10.6%	3.9%	.282	—	—	—	—	—	1.74	195	75
Scott Atchison R 2007 · 4.55 FIP	31	SU	4.55	19.1%	7.6%	3.8%	.297	4.59	16.2%	9.5%	60	+0.04	2.52	340	74
Mike Buddie R 2002 · 4.26 FIP	31	SU	4.26	15.1%	7.6%	2.7%	.297	—	—	—	—	—	3.76	123	74
Rudy Gonzalez R 2015 · 4.52 FIP	34	SW	4.52	13.5%	9.6%	2.4%	.347	3.84	14.0%	6.5%	79	-0.68	3.31	119	73
Neil Wagner R 2016 · 4.05 FIP	32	SU	4.05	19.8%	12.3%	1.9%	.360	3.11	20.7%	12.1%	54	-0.94	3.11	135	73
Cody Satterwhite R 2017 · 4.22 FIP	30	SU	4.22	17.0%	7.1%	3.0%	.310	—	—	—	—	—	3.69	147	73
Yoanner Negrin R 2015 · 3.79 FIP	31	SW	3.79	15.1%	7.5%	1.9%	.256	3.29	15.0%	8.5%	270	-0.50	3.15	485	72
Jason Urquidez R 2015 · 3.59 FIP	32	SU	3.59	15.6%	9.3%	1.1%	.386	1.81	25.5%	20.7%	90	-1.78	1.25	123	72
Miguel Mejia R 2019 · 4.41 FIP	31	SU	4.41	15.7%	10.7%	2.3%	.341	—	—	—	—	—	3.37	108	71
Erik Davis R 2018 · 3.52 FIP	31	SU	3.52	17.4%	8.9%	1.4%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	3.05	227	70
Chris Hatcher R 2016 · 4.61 FIP	31	SU	4.61	23.8%	9.4%	4.2%	.283	4.69	22.0%	13.8%	96	+0.08	2.51	246	70
Felipe Arredondo R 2017 · 4.76 FIP	30	SW	4.76	14.8%	7.3%	3.6%	.311	4.65	16.2%	9.1%	64	-0.11	3.92	337	70
Jeff Fulchino R 2011 · 4.44 FIP	31	SU	4.44	20.4%	11.1%	3.0%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	3.36	178	70
Al Reyes R 2001 · 4.12 FIP	31	SU	4.12	19.2%	10.0%	2.5%	.305	3.40	21.8%	11.1%	34	-0.72	2.60	411	69
Ivan Zavala R 2017 · 5.02 FIP	30	SU	5.02	12.8%	8.0%	3.6%	.286	5.15	12.7%	5.3%	61	+0.13	4.27	209	69
Manny Acosta R 2012 · 4.49 FIP	31	SU	4.49	21.3%	11.1%	3.2%	.295	—	—	—	—	—	3.08	350	69