Jake Gozzo

P Chattanooga Lookouts

Age 30 RHP 6'5" / 221 lbs AA

Overview

AAPROSPECT

MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2022	25	A+CIN	25	41	3.95	5.56	20.1%	12.8%	—	K 15.5% · BB 14.8% · FIP 6.56
2023	26	MIX2 levels	39	57	3.65	4.28	20.6%	15.7%	—	K 16.2% · BB 17.6% · FIP 5.04
2024	27	AACIN	24	32	8.53	3.89	19.2%	15.4%	—	K 15.6% · BB 16.9% · FIP 4.32
2027PROJ	30	MLBCIN	17	18	4.83	4.83	20.9%	11.9%	-0.1
2028PROJ31% MLB	31	MLBCIN	6	6	4.90	4.98	20.8%	12.0%	-0.0

Next 2 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

CompsWirfin Obispo (age 30) · Jim Miller (age 30) · Joe Nelson (age 31)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 125117vR 109

ERA4.83

FIP4.83

K%20.9%

BB%11.9%

K-BB%9.0%

Proj IP18

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 18 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	0	36	179	38	43	4	0%	1.2	14.3%	30.2%	-15.9%	2.5%	4.95	7.10	—
2021	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	31	0	36	179	38	43	4	0%	1.2	21.2%	24.0%	-2.8%	2.2%	4.95	5.99	—
2022	25	A+ MLE	Dayton Dragons	25	0	41	179	36	23	8	0%	1.6	15.5%	14.8%	0.7%	5.3%	3.95	6.56	—
2022	25	A+ RAW	Dayton Dragons	25	0	41	179	36	23	8	0%	1.6	20.1%	12.8%	7.3%	4.5%	3.95	5.56	—
2023	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	39	0	57	248	51	39	4	0%	1.5	16.2%	17.6%	-1.4%	2.0%	3.65	5.04	—
2023	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	39	0	57	248	51	39	4	0%	1.5	20.6%	15.7%	4.8%	1.6%	3.65	4.28	—
2024	27	AA MLE	Chattanooga Lookouts	24	0	32	156	30	24	1	0%	1.3	15.6%	16.9%	-1.3%	0.7%	8.53	4.32	—
2024	27	AA MLE	Chattanooga Lookouts	24	0	32	156	30	24	1	0%	1.3	15.6%	16.9%	-1.3%	0.7%	8.53	4.32	—
2024	27	AA RAW	Chattanooga Lookouts	24	0	32	156	30	24	1	0%	1.3	19.2%	15.4%	3.8%	0.6%	8.53	3.89	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	30	MLB	CIN	17	0	18	76	16	9	2	0%	1.1	20.9%	11.9%	9.0%	2.9%	4.83	4.83	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	31	MLB MLE	CIN	19	0	20	84	18	10	3	0%	1.1	20.8%	12.0%	8.8%	3.2%	4.90	4.98	-0.1
2028	31	MLB CTX	CIN	6	0	6	25	5	3	1	0%	1.0	20.8%	12.0%	8.8%	3.2%	4.90	4.98	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		6	0	6	26	5	3	1	0%	1.0	20.8%	12.0%	8.8%	3.2%	4.90	4.60	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	160	96	32	0%	1.1	20.8%	12.0%	8.8%	3.2%	4.90	4.60	-0.1
Career	—	MLE		119	0	166	762	118	151	20	0%	1.4	15.5%	19.8%	-4.3%	2.6%	4.94	5.73	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		144	0	200	920	142	182	24	0%	1.4	15.5%	19.8%	-4.3%	2.6%	4.94	5.73	-1.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jake Gozzo (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.83	20.9%	11.9%	2.9%	—	4.98	20.8%	8.8%	20	+0.15	—	—	—
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	91
Jim Miller R 2012 · 4.56 FIP	30	SU	4.56	20.9%	11.8%	3.1%	.243	3.95	18.8%	14.7%	74	-0.61	3.95	140	88
Joe Nelson R 2006 · 3.91 FIP	31	SU	3.91	22.8%	10.4%	2.6%	.258	4.05	23.4%	12.8%	94	+0.14	3.08	139	85
Dustin Molleken R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	30	SU	3.74	20.4%	11.7%	1.6%	.287	3.90	20.6%	8.4%	77	+0.16	3.38	129	85
Esteban Haro R 2016 · 4.55 FIP	30	SU	4.55	17.1%	10.2%	2.9%	.338	3.83	11.6%	6.3%	75	-0.72	3.76	164	82
Neil Wagner R 2013 · 4.02 FIP	29	SU	4.02	20.5%	7.5%	3.1%	.306	4.05	19.8%	7.5%	43	+0.03	3.11	135	80
Erik Davis R 2017 · 4.25 FIP	30	SU	4.25	22.2%	11.1%	3.0%	.349	3.52	17.4%	8.5%	65	-0.73	3.05	227	79
Angel Castro R 2015 · 4.50 FIP	32	SU	4.50	15.9%	8.0%	3.1%	.268	4.28	13.6%	5.5%	231	-0.22	3.51	292	77
Scott Atchison R 2007 · 4.55 FIP	31	SU	4.55	19.1%	7.6%	3.8%	.297	4.59	16.2%	9.5%	60	+0.04	2.52	340	76
Dalier Hinojosa R 2016 · 4.30 FIP	30	SU	4.30	18.7%	12.6%	2.2%	.329	—	—	—	—	—	3.41	104	75
Mike Broadway R 2017 · 4.73 FIP	30	SU	4.73	18.3%	10.2%	3.4%	.245	4.65	23.0%	12.4%	49	-0.08	1.74	195	75
Carlos Fisher R 2011 · 4.33 FIP	28	SU	4.33	15.5%	9.1%	2.5%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	2.48	245	75
Wil Browning R 2017 · 4.44 FIP	28	SU	4.44	17.9%	13.1%	2.2%	.359	—	—	—	—	—	2.14	162	74
Ronald Peña R 2021 · 4.49 FIP	29	SU	4.49	16.5%	10.4%	2.7%	.288	—	—	—	—	—	3.72	187	74
Javy Guerra R 2016 · 4.29 FIP	30	SU	4.29	21.3%	13.9%	2.3%	.303	3.95	19.5%	13.0%	193	-0.34	2.94	409	73
Francisco Mendoza R 2016 · 3.81 FIP	28	SU	3.81	17.9%	7.7%	2.3%	.344	—	—	—	—	—	3.13	120	73
Jose Manuel Lopez R 2015 · 5.21 FIP	30	SU	5.21	18.6%	7.6%	4.9%	.373	3.56	18.5%	9.3%	93	-1.65	3.50	170	73
Greg Burke R 2013 · 3.70 FIP	30	SU	3.70	17.9%	8.3%	1.9%	.357	3.61	22.1%	14.8%	62	-0.09	3.61	139	73
Adrian Garza R 2017 · 4.47 FIP	29	SU	4.47	16.0%	7.0%	3.4%	.351	5.18	9.7%	4.1%	113	+0.71	3.94	229	72
Marc Magliaro R 2018 · 3.94 FIP	28	SU	3.94	19.6%	7.3%	2.9%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.94	125	72