Dylan Spain — OGILVIE

Dylan Spain P Hartford Yard Goats

Age 29 RHP 6'6" / 205 lbs AA

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION0 act + 6 ip · rates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 119111vR 103

ERA4.54

FIP4.54

K%21.6%

BB%9.4%

K-BB%12.1%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 6 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	11	0	18	62	21	2	0	0%	1.6	33.9%	3.2%	30.6%	0.0%	0.00	0.65	—
2021	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	11	0	18	62	21	2	0	0%	1.6	33.9%	3.2%	30.6%	0.0%	0.00	1.06	—
2022	24	A+ MLE	Rome Braves	36	7	56	243	60	13	11	19%	1.6	19.0%	6.2%	12.9%	6.1%	5.30	5.62	—
2022	24	A+ RAW	Rome Braves	36	7	56	243	60	13	11	19%	1.6	24.7%	5.3%	19.3%	4.5%	5.30	4.21	—
2023	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	0	33	152	32	11	8	0%	1.4	17.0%	7.4%	9.5%	6.2%	5.67	6.03	—
2023	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	0	33	152	32	11	8	0%	1.4	21.1%	7.2%	13.8%	5.3%	5.67	5.29	—
2024	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	14	0	17	81	11	6	6	0%	1.2	9.5%	10.8%	-1.3%	10.3%	7.79	9.30	—
2024	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	14	0	17	81	11	6	6	0%	1.2	9.5%	10.8%	-1.3%	10.3%	7.79	9.30	—
2024	26	MIX RAW	3 levels	14	0	17	81	11	6	6	0%	1.2	13.6%	7.4%	6.2%	7.4%	7.79	7.37	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	29	MLB	COL	6	0	6	25	5	2	1	0%	1.0	21.6%	9.4%	12.1%	3.1%	4.54	4.54	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	30	MLB MLE	COL	19	0	20	84	18	8	3	0%	1.1	21.4%	9.7%	11.7%	3.3%	4.63	4.70	-0.0
2028	30	MLB CTX	COL	6	0	6	25	5	2	1	0%	1.0	21.4%	9.7%	11.7%	3.3%	4.63	4.70	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		6	0	6	26	6	3	1	0%	1.0	21.4%	9.7%	11.7%	3.3%	4.63	4.32	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	192	96	32	0%	1.1	21.4%	9.7%	11.7%	3.3%	4.63	4.32	+0.5
Career	—	MLE		84	7	124	538	101	37	33	8%	1.5	18.7%	6.9%	11.8%	6.1%	4.99	5.72	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		135	11	200	865	162	59	52	8%	1.5	18.7%	6.9%	11.8%	6.1%	4.99	5.72	-0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Dylan Spain (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.54	21.6%	9.4%	3.1%	—	4.70	21.4%	11.7%	20	+0.16	—	—	—
Neil Wagner R 2013 · 4.02 FIP	29	SU	4.02	20.5%	7.5%	3.1%	.306	4.05	19.8%	7.5%	43	+0.03	3.11	135	85
Tyler Sturdevant R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	29	SU	4.37	21.3%	8.5%	3.6%	.241	3.97	18.5%	11.9%	118	-0.40	3.44	149	83
Joe Nelson R 2006 · 3.91 FIP	31	SU	3.91	22.8%	10.4%	2.6%	.258	4.05	23.4%	12.8%	94	+0.14	3.08	139	83
Diego Moreno R 2016 · 3.75 FIP	29	SU	3.75	21.0%	8.2%	2.5%	.347	3.13	17.8%	11.9%	54	-0.62	2.29	187	81
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	81
Jim Miller R 2012 · 4.56 FIP	30	SU	4.56	20.9%	11.8%	3.1%	.243	3.95	18.8%	14.7%	74	-0.61	3.95	140	81
Gerardo Sanchez R 2017 · 3.47 FIP	28	SU	3.47	21.6%	8.4%	2.1%	.355	3.58	20.5%	15.1%	56	+0.11	2.65	137	80
Brian Sanches R 2008 · 4.74 FIP	29	SU	4.74	18.5%	9.3%	3.7%	.378	4.01	20.5%	10.8%	182	-0.73	3.39	229	80
Jason Bulger R 2008 · 4.60 FIP	29	SU	4.60	27.4%	12.3%	4.1%	.293	3.94	25.1%	13.3%	90	-0.66	3.78	106	79
Dustin Molleken R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	30	SU	3.74	20.4%	11.7%	1.6%	.287	3.90	20.6%	8.4%	77	+0.16	3.38	129	78
Cody Hall R 2017 · 4.03 FIP	29	SU	4.03	26.8%	10.0%	3.5%	.299	3.92	25.9%	8.4%	19	-0.11	3.51	134	78
Coleman Huntley III R 2022 · 4.05 FIP	29	SU	4.05	24.4%	10.9%	3.0%	.311	2.38	20.9%	12.6%	25	-1.67	2.38	160	77
Marc Magliaro R 2018 · 3.94 FIP	28	SU	3.94	19.6%	7.3%	2.9%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.94	125	77
Joel Peralta R 2005 · 4.67 FIP	29	SU	4.67	20.7%	8.3%	4.1%	.227	4.27	18.0%	13.3%	214	-0.40	2.70	648	77
Marcos Mateo R 2011 · 3.40 FIP	27	SU	3.40	25.5%	10.2%	2.1%	.361	—	—	—	—	—	3.12	104	77
Tyler Walker R 2005 · 4.19 FIP	29	SU	4.19	19.4%	7.5%	3.2%	.303	3.61	19.7%	11.3%	93	-0.58	2.38	289	77
Jeremy Fikac R 2004 · 4.91 FIP	29	SU	4.91	19.6%	8.0%	4.5%	.276	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	136	76
Andrew Robinson R 2017 · 4.32 FIP	29	SU	4.32	23.4%	8.8%	3.8%	.245	—	—	—	—	—	3.19	160	76
Joe Colón J R 2017 · 4.25 FIP	27	SU	4.25	20.4%	12.1%	2.4%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	3.27	113	76
Michael Dimock R 2018 · 3.37 FIP	28	SU	3.37	23.5%	10.7%	1.6%	.346	—	—	—	—	—	3.08	166	76