Easton Lucas

P Buffalo Bisons

Age 30 LHP 6'4" / 180 lbs AAA

Overview

AAASPROOKIE

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	26	MIX3 levels	42	0	53	4.39	4.43	24.9%	8.2%	0.1	K 21.5% · BB 7.7% · FIP 4.95
2024	27	MIX2 levels	46	4	80	3.92	3.15	24.4%	10.3%	1.4	K 21.4% · BB 9.5% · FIP 3.38
2025	28	MIX3 levels	25	18	94	4.40	4.14	24.3%	10.3%	0.8	K 21.4% · BB 9.8% · FIP 4.75
2027PROJ	30	MLBTOR	59	0	62	5.07	5.13	19.7%	11.9%	-0.4
2028PROJ37% MLB	31	MLBTOR	20	0	21	5.16	5.28	19.4%	12.0%	-0.2
2029PROJ55% MLB	32	MLBTOR	28	0	29	5.31	5.46	18.9%	12.2%	-0.3

Last 3 seasons WAR 2.3 · Next 3 projected WAR -0.9Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2025

K%44

FB Velo40

Whiff%40

xwOBA vs10

CompsRaul Valdes (age 32) · Andrew Barbosa (age 29) · Keith Hessler (age 29)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 114122vR 131

ERA5.07

FIP5.13

K%19.7%

BB%11.9%

K-BB%7.8%

Proj IP62

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 62 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL3030

CMD3535

K†4545

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p4093.8

Whiff%

p4023.9%

p4421.3%

xwOBA vs

p100.370

FB+1.8 (51%)

CH+0.6 (21%)

SL-1.9 (10%)

CT-2.8 (19%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2019	22	ROK MLE	GCL Marlins	1	0	3	11	1	0	0	0%	3.0	9.1%	0.0%	9.1%	0.0%	0.00	2.33	—
2019	22	ROK RAW	GCL Marlins	1	0	3	11	1	0	0	0%	3.0	9.1%	0.0%	9.1%	0.0%	0.00	2.43	—
2021	24	A+ MLE	Aberdeen IronBirds	27	0	39	163	50	13	5	0%	1.4	23.6%	9.2%	14.4%	3.7%	3.96	4.29	—
2021	24	A+ RAW	Aberdeen IronBirds	27	0	39	163	50	13	5	0%	1.4	30.7%	8.0%	22.7%	3.1%	3.96	3.20	—
2022	25	AA MLE	Bowie Baysox	32	0	57	242	65	25	6	0%	1.8	21.8%	11.4%	10.4%	2.5%	4.76	4.10	—
2022	25	AA RAW	Bowie Baysox	32	0	57	242	65	25	6	0%	1.8	26.9%	10.3%	16.5%	2.5%	4.76	3.51	—
2023	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	42	0	53	233	58	19	10	0%	1.3	21.5%	7.7%	13.9%	4.9%	4.39	4.95	-0.2
2023	26	MIX RAW	3 levels	42	0	53	233	58	19	10	0%	1.3	24.9%	8.2%	16.7%	4.3%	4.39	4.43	+0.1
2024	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	46	4	80	340	83	35	5	9%	1.7	21.4%	9.5%	11.9%	1.6%	3.92	3.38	+1.1
2024	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	46	4	80	340	83	35	5	9%	1.7	21.4%	9.5%	11.9%	1.6%	3.92	3.38	+1.1
2024	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	46	4	80	340	83	35	5	9%	1.7	24.4%	10.3%	14.1%	1.5%	3.92	3.15	+1.4
2025	28	MIX MLE	3 levels	25	18	94	399	97	41	13	72%	3.8	21.4%	9.8%	11.6%	4.0%	4.40	4.75	+0.2
2025	28	MIX MLE	3 levels	25	18	94	399	97	41	13	72%	3.8	21.4%	9.8%	11.6%	4.0%	4.40	4.75	+0.2
2025	28	MIX RAW	3 levels	25	18	94	399	97	41	13	72%	3.8	24.3%	10.3%	14.0%	3.3%	4.40	4.14	+0.8
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			20	5	43	204	40	24	7	25%	2.1	19.6%	11.8%	7.8%	3.4%	8.02	5.05	-0.2
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	30	MLB	TOR	59	0	62	262	52	31	9	0%	1.1	19.7%	11.9%	7.8%	3.3%	5.07	5.13	-0.4
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	31	MLB MLE	TOR	55	0	58	243	47	29	8	0%	1.0	19.4%	12.0%	7.3%	3.5%	5.16	5.28	-0.5
2029	32	MLB MLE	TOR	51	0	53	225	42	27	8	0%	1.0	18.9%	12.2%	6.6%	3.7%	5.31	5.46	-0.5
2028	31	MLB CTX	TOR	20	0	21	89	17	11	3	0%	1.1	19.4%	12.0%	7.3%	3.5%	5.16	5.28	-0.2
2029	32	MLB CTX	TOR	28	0	29	122	23	15	5	0%	1.0	18.9%	12.2%	6.6%	3.7%	5.31	5.46	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		68	5	93	417	81	50	15	7%	1.4	19.3%	12.0%	7.4%	3.5%	6.51	4.91	-0.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		146	11	200	896	174	107	32	7%	1.4	19.3%	12.0%	7.4%	3.5%	6.51	4.91	-0.9
Career	—	MLE		173	22	326	1388	300	132	45	13%	1.9	21.6%	9.5%	12.2%	3.3%	4.25	4.26	-1.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		106	13	200	852	184	81	28	13%	1.9	21.6%	9.5%	12.2%	3.3%	4.25	4.26	-1.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Easton Lucas (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.13	19.7%	11.9%	3.3%	—	5.37	19.1%	7.0%	111	+0.24	—	—	—
Raul Valdes L 2010 · 4.02 FIP	32	SU	4.02	21.4%	9.9%	2.7%	.301	3.14	27.4%	22.5%	78	-0.88	2.29	160	80
Andrew Barbosa L 2017 · 4.67 FIP	29	SU	4.67	20.2%	9.6%	3.8%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	2.70	175	78
Keith Hessler L 2018 · 4.96 FIP	29	SU	4.96	19.8%	13.3%	3.4%	.348	—	—	—	—	—	3.31	228	73
Kelvin Marte L 2017 · 4.74 FIP	29	SW	4.74	16.1%	11.4%	2.8%	.300	5.25	12.0%	1.2%	71	+0.51	3.44	360	71
Ryan O'Rourke L 2019 · 4.08 FIP	31	SU	4.08	22.1%	14.3%	1.9%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	3.05	145	71
Aaron Brown L 2022 · 5.38 FIP	30	SU	5.38	21.3%	12.5%	4.5%	.253	—	—	—	—	—	4.04	269	71
John Rheinecker L 2007 · 5.13 FIP	28	SW	5.13	16.7%	10.9%	3.8%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	4.14	121	71
Jack Taschner L 2008 · 4.09 FIP	30	SU	4.09	17.2%	9.7%	2.2%	.323	4.73	15.2%	3.0%	49	+0.64	3.14	189	70
Jimmy Reyes L 2017 · 4.92 FIP	28	SU	4.92	13.8%	8.0%	3.6%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	3.02	200	70
James Jones L 2019 · 4.28 FIP	30	SU	4.28	21.9%	13.0%	2.5%	.230	4.65	23.9%	8.8%	35	+0.37	3.58	127	69
Armando Almanza L 2003 · 4.95 FIP	30	SU	4.95	21.3%	10.0%	4.3%	.331	5.29	24.1%	14.8%	12	+0.34	2.90	211	69
Tommy Phelps L 2004 · 4.80 FIP	30	SW	4.80	19.4%	8.3%	4.2%	.286	3.98	13.2%	5.7%	23	-0.82	3.39	120	69
Jose Meraz L 2017 · 4.34 FIP	29	SU	4.34	16.4%	10.3%	2.4%	.282	3.80	10.5%	-2.0%	30	-0.54	3.78	110	68
Juan Pablo Perez L 2007 · 5.32 FIP	28	SU	5.32	17.5%	14.0%	3.5%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	1.75	104	68
Randy Keisler L 2005 · 5.07 FIP	29	SW	5.07	16.4%	9.9%	3.8%	.295	5.51	6.5%	0.0%	17	+0.44	5.07	135	68
Brian Shouse L 2002 · 5.54 FIP	33	SU	5.54	15.5%	11.3%	4.2%	.245	3.31	16.3%	10.7%	159	-2.23	2.32	339	68
Kelly Wunsch L 2002 · 4.60 FIP	30	SU	4.60	15.9%	13.0%	2.2%	.242	3.54	20.8%	8.3%	60	-1.06	3.36	175	68
Valerio De Los Santos L 2003 · 4.97 FIP	30	SU	4.97	17.1%	11.0%	3.5%	.237	4.47	16.3%	5.7%	34	-0.50	3.40	239	67
Buddy Baumann L 2018 · 4.87 FIP	30	SU	4.87	20.5%	11.9%	3.6%	.258	—	—	—	—	—	2.92	155	66
Bobby Jones L 2002 · 5.24 FIP	30	SU	5.24	14.3%	12.7%	3.2%	.295	—	—	—	—	—	4.01	321	66

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.1	54	19.4%	12.1%	1.34	5.74
Paul Spoljaric ('00)	1.4	69	22.1%	12.9%	1.33	5.52
Daryl Patterson ('68-'74, -1 WAR*)	1.2	46	18.3%*	11.2%*	1.27*	5.03*
Will Cunnane ('04)	1.4	46	18.9%	10.4%	1.25	5.26
Ron Piche ('60-'66, -3 WAR*)	1.1	44	20.6%*	12.8%*	1.14*	5.06*
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Valerio De Los Santos ('08)	1.3	51	18.7%	11.5%	1.30	4.57