Colton Johnson

P Midland RockHounds

Age 29 LHP 6'4" / 220 lbs AA

Overview

AAPROSPECT

ETA2029MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2021	23	AOAK	3	3	5.40	6.70	58.3%	0.0%	—	K 58.3% · BB 0.0% · FIP 7.32
2024	26	MIX2 levels	41	58	2.79	3.00	26.5%	9.8%	—	K 20.8% · BB 11.0% · FIP 3.92
2025	27	AAOAK	50	48	2.98	4.09	15.1%	11.4%	—	K 12.2% · BB 12.6% · FIP 4.53
2027PROJ	29	MLBOAK	55	58	5.71	5.71	12.9%	14.0%	-0.7
2028PROJ31% MLB	30	MLBOAK	16	17	5.67	5.74	13.6%	13.8%	-0.2
2029PROJ51% MLB	31	MLBOAK	25	26	5.73	5.84	13.9%	13.8%	-0.4

Next 3 projected WAR -1.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff30Control40Command30

CompsStephen Randolph (age 29) · Bryan Harper (age 28) · Juan Pablo Perez (age 28)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 125133vR 142

ERA5.71

FIP5.71

K%12.9%

BB%14.0%

K-BB%-1.1%

Proj IP58

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 58 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3030

CTRL4040

CMD3030

K†3030

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	23	A MLE	Stockton Ports	3	0	3	12	7	0	2	0%	1.1	58.3%	0.0%	58.3%	16.7%	5.40	7.32	—
2021	23	A RAW	Stockton Ports	3	0	3	12	7	0	2	0%	1.1	58.3%	0.0%	58.3%	16.7%	5.40	6.70	—
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	41	0	58	245	65	24	4	0%	1.4	20.8%	11.0%	9.8%	2.2%	2.79	3.92	—
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	41	0	58	245	65	24	4	0%	1.4	20.8%	11.0%	9.8%	2.2%	2.79	3.92	—
2024	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	41	0	58	245	65	24	4	0%	1.4	26.5%	9.8%	16.7%	1.6%	2.79	3.00	—
2025	27	AA MLE	Midland RockHounds	50	0	48	219	33	25	3	0%	1.0	12.2%	12.6%	-0.4%	1.6%	2.98	4.53	—
2025	27	AA MLE	Midland RockHounds	50	0	48	219	33	25	3	0%	1.0	12.2%	12.6%	-0.4%	1.6%	2.98	4.53	—
2025	27	AA RAW	Midland RockHounds	50	0	48	219	33	25	3	0%	1.0	15.1%	11.4%	3.7%	1.4%	2.98	4.09	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	29	MLB	OAK	55	0	58	245	32	34	7	0%	1.1	12.9%	14.0%	-1.1%	2.8%	5.71	5.71	-0.7
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	30	MLB MLE	OAK	52	0	55	231	31	32	7	0%	1.1	13.6%	13.8%	-0.2%	3.0%	5.67	5.74	-0.7
2029	31	MLB MLE	OAK	49	0	51	216	30	30	7	0%	1.0	13.9%	13.8%	0.1%	3.3%	5.73	5.84	-0.7
2028	30	MLB CTX	OAK	16	0	17	72	10	10	2	0%	1.1	13.6%	13.8%	-0.2%	3.0%	5.67	5.74	-0.2
2029	31	MLB CTX	OAK	25	0	26	110	15	15	4	0%	1.0	13.9%	13.8%	0.1%	3.3%	5.73	5.84	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		41	0	43	183	25	25	6	0%	1.1	13.8%	13.8%	-0.0%	3.2%	5.71	5.42	-0.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	115	115	28	0%	1.1	13.8%	13.8%	-0.0%	3.2%	5.71	5.42	-2.0
Career	—	MLE		94	0	110	476	85	55	11	0%	1.2	17.8%	11.5%	6.3%	2.3%	2.95	4.29	-1.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		171	0	200	868	154	99	20	0%	1.2	17.8%	11.5%	6.3%	2.3%	2.95	4.29	-2.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Colton Johnson (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.71	12.9%	14.0%	2.8%	—	5.79	13.7%	-0.1%	106	+0.08	—	—	—
Stephen Randolph L 2003 · 4.83 FIP	29	SU	4.83	18.5%	14.8%	2.6%	.247	5.69	15.8%	-3.0%	82	+0.86	4.83	155	82
Bryan Harper L 2018 · 4.63 FIP	28	SU	4.63	14.9%	13.9%	1.9%	.288	—	—	—	—	—	4.13	133	81
Juan Pablo Perez L 2007 · 5.32 FIP	28	SU	5.32	17.5%	14.0%	3.5%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	1.75	104	78
Ashur Tolliver L 2017 · 5.03 FIP	29	SU	5.03	13.8%	18.9%	1.3%	.319	—	—	—	—	—	3.49	134	78
Doug Slaten L 2008 · 4.56 FIP	28	SU	4.56	13.6%	8.8%	2.7%	.264	3.63	19.2%	10.2%	57	-0.93	3.22	139	76
David Purcey L 2011 · 4.66 FIP	29	SU	4.66	14.0%	15.9%	1.3%	.287	3.79	20.4%	8.9%	25	-0.87	3.60	206	75
Keith Hessler L 2018 · 4.96 FIP	29	SU	4.96	19.8%	13.3%	3.4%	.348	—	—	—	—	—	3.31	228	72
Jimmy Reyes L 2017 · 4.92 FIP	28	SU	4.92	13.8%	8.0%	3.6%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	3.02	200	70
Colt Hynes L 2013 · 4.76 FIP	28	SU	4.76	15.5%	8.3%	3.5%	.361	3.49	19.3%	12.8%	96	-1.27	3.42	169	70
Braulio Lara L 2017 · 5.80 FIP	28	SU	5.80	19.8%	17.8%	3.9%	.361	—	—	—	—	—	3.96	118	70
Joey Eischen L 2001 · 5.00 FIP	31	SU	5.00	14.5%	11.5%	3.0%	.269	3.14	20.9%	14.9%	125	-1.86	2.13	294	69
Ron Mahay L 2000 · 6.03 FIP	29	SU	6.03	16.1%	12.1%	5.0%	.353	4.58	22.4%	12.1%	81	-1.45	3.14	568	66
Greg Nappo L 2017 · 6.26 FIP	28	SU	6.26	12.3%	12.6%	4.7%	.257	—	—	—	—	—	3.37	144	66
Mike Gallo L 2006 · 5.31 FIP	29	SU	5.31	8.5%	7.3%	3.7%	.379	—	—	—	—	—	3.73	116	66
Drake Britton L 2016 · 4.79 FIP	27	SU	4.79	8.0%	10.2%	2.0%	.270	—	—	—	—	—	2.97	146	66
Fabian Williamson L 2017 · 5.87 FIP	28	SU	5.87	11.4%	18.1%	2.6%	.404	4.78	20.5%	-0.6%	30	-1.09	3.39	154	65
Travis Bergen L 2022 · 4.93 FIP	28	SU	4.93	19.3%	20.5%	1.6%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	2.48	143	65
Andrew Barbosa L 2017 · 4.67 FIP	29	SU	4.67	20.2%	9.6%	3.8%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	2.70	175	65
Eric DuBose L 2005 · 5.45 FIP	29	SW	5.45	12.6%	14.1%	3.0%	.253	—	—	—	—	—	3.92	178	65
Mike Gosling L 2009 · 5.66 FIP	28	SU	5.66	11.4%	8.8%	4.4%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	4.44	116	64

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.8	55	13.4%	13.8%	1.17	5.70
Mike Mohler ('01)	2.1	60	15.0%	12.4%	0.97	4.99
Richie Lewis ('98)	1.5	59	18.1%	14.1%	1.38	4.88
Matt Anderson ('05)	1.3	51	19.3%	13.5%	1.05	5.19
Ron Piche ('60-'66, -3 WAR*)	1.1	44	20.6%*	12.8%*	1.14*	5.06*
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*
Daryl Patterson ('68-'74, -1 WAR*)	1.2	46	18.3%*	11.2%*	1.27*	5.03*