Triston Polley

P Frisco RoughRiders

Age 30 LHP 6'0" / 190 lbs AA

Overview

AAPROSPECT

MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2022	25	MIX2 levels	42	0	62	5.08	4.45	24.5%	13.9%	—	K 19.4% · BB 15.5% · FIP 5.37
2023	26	MIX2 levels	40	2	61	5.49	3.64	21.0%	8.5%	—	K 17.8% · BB 8.9% · FIP 4.15
2024	27	MIX2 levels	23	0	28	3.54	4.74	18.3%	17.5%	—	K 17.4% · BB 17.7% · FIP 4.53
2027PROJ	30	MLBTEX	11	0	12	4.67	4.67	22.1%	11.3%	-0.0
2028PROJ31% MLB	31	MLBTEX	6	0	6	4.76	4.84	21.8%	11.4%	-0.0

Next 2 projected WAR -0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

CompsRaul Valdes (age 32) · Clay Rapada (age 30) · Jose Meraz (age 29)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 106114vR 122

ERA4.67

FIP4.67

K%22.1%

BB%11.3%

K-BB%10.8%

Proj IP12

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 12 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2019	22	ROK MLE	AZL Rangers	2	0	2	10	2	1	0	0%	1.2	20.0%	10.0%	10.0%	0.0%	7.71	2.68	—
2019	22	ROK RAW	AZL Rangers	2	0	2	10	2	1	0	0%	1.2	20.0%	10.0%	10.0%	0.0%	7.71	2.67	—
2021	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	11	2	17	78	26	14	1	18%	1.5	22.3%	20.0%	2.3%	2.1%	7.02	4.88	—
2021	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	11	2	17	78	26	14	1	18%	1.5	33.3%	17.9%	15.4%	1.3%	7.02	3.28	—
2022	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	42	0	62	273	67	38	8	0%	1.5	19.4%	15.5%	3.9%	3.6%	5.08	5.37	—
2022	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	42	0	62	273	67	38	8	0%	1.5	24.5%	13.9%	10.6%	2.9%	5.08	4.45	—
2023	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	40	2	61	271	57	23	6	5%	1.5	17.8%	8.9%	9.0%	2.6%	5.49	4.15	—
2023	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	40	2	61	271	57	23	6	5%	1.5	21.0%	8.5%	12.5%	2.2%	5.49	3.64	—
2024	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	0	28	126	23	22	2	0%	1.2	17.4%	17.7%	-0.3%	1.2%	3.54	4.53	—
2024	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	0	28	126	23	22	2	0%	1.2	17.4%	17.7%	-0.3%	1.2%	3.54	4.53	—
2024	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	0	28	126	23	22	2	0%	1.2	18.3%	17.5%	0.8%	1.6%	3.54	4.74	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	30	MLB	TEX	11	0	12	51	11	6	2	0%	1.1	22.1%	11.3%	10.8%	3.0%	4.67	4.67	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	31	MLB MLE	TEX	19	0	20	84	18	10	3	0%	1.1	21.8%	11.4%	10.4%	3.2%	4.76	4.84	-0.1
2028	31	MLB CTX	TEX	6	0	6	25	6	3	1	0%	1.0	21.8%	11.4%	10.4%	3.2%	4.76	4.84	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		6	0	6	26	6	3	1	0%	1.0	21.8%	11.4%	10.4%	3.2%	4.76	4.46	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	192	96	32	0%	1.1	21.8%	11.4%	10.4%	3.2%	4.76	4.46	+0.2
Career	—	MLE		118	4	170	758	143	105	20	3%	1.4	18.8%	13.9%	4.9%	2.6%	5.20	4.71	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		139	5	200	894	168	124	23	3%	1.4	18.8%	13.9%	4.9%	2.6%	5.20	4.71	-0.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Triston Polley (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.67	22.1%	11.3%	3.0%	—	4.84	21.8%	10.4%	20	+0.17	—	—	—
Raul Valdes L 2010 · 4.02 FIP	32	SU	4.02	21.4%	9.9%	2.7%	.301	3.14	27.4%	22.5%	78	-0.88	2.29	160	84
Clay Rapada L 2011 · 4.34 FIP	30	SU	4.34	26.1%	10.1%	3.9%	.268	3.00	24.5%	14.2%	38	-1.34	3.00	120	77
Jose Meraz L 2017 · 4.34 FIP	29	SU	4.34	16.4%	10.3%	2.4%	.282	3.80	10.5%	-2.0%	30	-0.54	3.78	110	76
Juan Pablo Perez L 2007 · 5.32 FIP	28	SU	5.32	17.5%	14.0%	3.5%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	1.75	104	76
Andrew Barbosa L 2017 · 4.67 FIP	29	SU	4.67	20.2%	9.6%	3.8%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	2.70	175	75
Nick Hagadone L 2015 · 3.65 FIP	29	SU	3.65	22.6%	8.9%	2.4%	.329	3.74	22.6%	13.3%	33	+0.09	2.97	141	75
Jeff Ibarra L 2017 · 3.64 FIP	29	SU	3.64	18.1%	7.0%	2.1%	.342	2.85	20.6%	17.2%	29	-0.79	2.85	101	75
Brian Shouse L 2002 · 5.54 FIP	33	SU	5.54	15.5%	11.3%	4.2%	.245	3.31	16.3%	10.7%	159	-2.23	2.32	339	74
Keith Hessler L 2018 · 4.96 FIP	29	SU	4.96	19.8%	13.3%	3.4%	.348	—	—	—	—	—	3.31	228	74
Jack Taschner L 2008 · 4.09 FIP	30	SU	4.09	17.2%	9.7%	2.2%	.323	4.73	15.2%	3.0%	49	+0.64	3.14	189	73
Ryan O'Rourke L 2019 · 4.08 FIP	31	SU	4.08	22.1%	14.3%	1.9%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	3.05	145	73
Buddy Baumann L 2018 · 4.87 FIP	30	SU	4.87	20.5%	11.9%	3.6%	.258	—	—	—	—	—	2.92	155	72
Armando Almanza L 2003 · 4.95 FIP	30	SU	4.95	21.3%	10.0%	4.3%	.331	5.29	24.1%	14.8%	12	+0.34	2.90	211	71
Dario Alvarez L 2018 · 3.47 FIP	29	SU	3.47	20.7%	12.4%	1.0%	.250	—	—	—	—	—	3.47	160	71
James Jones L 2019 · 4.28 FIP	30	SU	4.28	21.9%	13.0%	2.5%	.230	4.65	23.9%	8.8%	35	+0.37	3.58	127	71
Cory Luebke L 2016 · 3.88 FIP	31	SU	3.88	26.4%	9.1%	3.4%	.354	—	—	—	—	—	2.80	216	71
Kelly Wunsch L 2002 · 4.60 FIP	30	SU	4.60	15.9%	13.0%	2.2%	.242	3.54	20.8%	8.3%	60	-1.06	3.36	175	70
Mike Zagurski L 2012 · 4.48 FIP	29	SU	4.48	20.9%	11.7%	3.0%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	2.94	120	70
Aaron Brown L 2022 · 5.38 FIP	30	SU	5.38	21.3%	12.5%	4.5%	.253	—	—	—	—	—	4.04	269	70
Sammy Solís L 2019 · 4.05 FIP	30	SU	4.05	26.2%	8.9%	3.7%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	2.51	190	70