Evan Justice — OGILVIE

Evan Justice P Albuquerque Isotopes

Age 29 LHP 6'4" / 205 lbs AAA

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION0 act + 17 ip · rates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 121129vR 137

ERA5.46

FIP5.46

K%18.1%

BB%14.2%

K-BB%3.9%

ROS IP17

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 17 IP

Grades · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4545

SL (12%)

SI (38%)

FB (88%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	23	ROK MLE	ACL Rockies	3	0	3	12	4	2	1	0%	1.0	33.3%	16.7%	16.7%	8.3%	3.00	6.97	—
2021	23	ROK RAW	ACL Rockies	3	0	3	12	4	2	1	0%	1.0	33.3%	16.7%	16.7%	8.3%	3.00	6.77	—
2023	25	MIX MLE	4 levels	47	0	46	208	70	34	1	0%	1.0	29.0%	16.4%	12.6%	0.8%	4.30	3.18	+0.8
2023	25	MIX RAW	4 levels	47	0	46	208	70	34	1	0%	1.0	33.7%	16.3%	17.3%	0.5%	4.30	2.56	+1.1
2024	26	MIX MLE	4 levels	36	0	28	154	30	36	2	0%	0.8	16.3%	22.3%	-6.0%	1.5%	9.76	5.36	-0.3
2024	26	MIX MLE	4 levels	36	0	28	154	30	36	2	0%	0.8	16.3%	22.3%	-6.0%	1.5%	9.76	5.36	-0.3
2024	26	MIX RAW	4 levels	36	0	28	154	30	36	2	0%	0.8	19.5%	23.4%	-3.9%	1.3%	9.76	5.77	-0.4
2025	27	AAA MLE	Albuquerque Isotopes	25	1	30	145	27	24	6	4%	1.2	16.0%	14.9%	1.1%	4.5%	7.50	6.09	—
2025	27	AAA MLE	Albuquerque Isotopes	25	1	30	145	27	24	6	4%	1.2	16.0%	14.9%	1.1%	4.5%	7.50	6.09	—
2025	27	AAA RAW	Albuquerque Isotopes	25	1	30	145	27	24	6	4%	1.2	18.6%	16.6%	2.1%	4.1%	7.50	6.30	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			10	0	8	44	8	9	0	0%	0.8	18.2%	20.5%	-2.3%	0.0%	8.22	4.53	+0.0
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	29	MLB	COL	16	0	17	72	13	10	2	0%	1.1	18.1%	14.2%	3.9%	3.1%	5.46	5.46	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	30	MLB MLE	COL	19	0	20	84	15	12	3	0%	1.1	18.3%	14.0%	4.3%	3.3%	5.46	5.53	-0.2
2028	30	MLB CTX	COL	7	0	7	30	5	4	1	0%	1.0	18.3%	14.0%	4.3%	3.3%	5.46	5.53	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		17	0	15	75	14	13	1	0%	0.9	18.2%	17.8%	0.4%	1.4%	6.87	4.57	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		226	0	200	999	186	173	13	0%	0.9	18.2%	17.8%	0.4%	1.4%	6.87	4.57	-0.0
Career	—	MLE		111	1	107	519	113	92	11	1%	1.0	21.7%	17.8%	4.0%	2.2%	6.58	4.73	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		208	2	200	973	211	173	21	1%	1.0	21.7%	17.8%	4.0%	2.2%	6.58	4.73	-1.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Evan Justice (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.46	18.1%	14.2%	3.1%	—	5.53	18.3%	4.3%	20	+0.07	—	—	—
Juan Pablo Perez L 2007 · 5.32 FIP	28	SU	5.32	17.5%	14.0%	3.5%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	1.75	104	85
Stephen Randolph L 2003 · 4.83 FIP	29	SU	4.83	18.5%	14.8%	2.6%	.247	5.69	15.8%	-3.0%	82	+0.86	4.83	155	79
Jose Meraz L 2017 · 4.34 FIP	29	SU	4.34	16.4%	10.3%	2.4%	.282	3.80	10.5%	-2.0%	30	-0.54	3.78	110	78
Keith Hessler L 2018 · 4.96 FIP	29	SU	4.96	19.8%	13.3%	3.4%	.348	—	—	—	—	—	3.31	228	75
Bryan Harper L 2018 · 4.63 FIP	28	SU	4.63	14.9%	13.9%	1.9%	.288	—	—	—	—	—	4.13	133	74
Braulio Lara L 2017 · 5.80 FIP	28	SU	5.80	19.8%	17.8%	3.9%	.361	—	—	—	—	—	3.96	118	73
Colt Hynes L 2013 · 4.76 FIP	28	SU	4.76	15.5%	8.3%	3.5%	.361	3.49	19.3%	12.8%	96	-1.27	3.42	169	73
Doug Slaten L 2008 · 4.56 FIP	28	SU	4.56	13.6%	8.8%	2.7%	.264	3.63	19.2%	10.2%	57	-0.93	3.22	139	73
Ashur Tolliver L 2017 · 5.03 FIP	29	SU	5.03	13.8%	18.9%	1.3%	.319	—	—	—	—	—	3.49	134	69
Mike Zagurski L 2012 · 4.48 FIP	29	SU	4.48	20.9%	11.7%	3.0%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	2.94	120	69
David Purcey L 2011 · 4.66 FIP	29	SU	4.66	14.0%	15.9%	1.3%	.287	3.79	20.4%	8.9%	25	-0.87	3.60	206	69
Andrew Barbosa L 2017 · 4.67 FIP	29	SU	4.67	20.2%	9.6%	3.8%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	2.70	175	67
Jordan Norberto L 2015 · 4.30 FIP	28	SU	4.30	16.9%	14.1%	1.5%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.89	117	67
Travis Bergen L 2022 · 4.93 FIP	28	SU	4.93	19.3%	20.5%	1.6%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	2.48	143	67
Joey Eischen L 2001 · 5.00 FIP	31	SU	5.00	14.5%	11.5%	3.0%	.269	3.14	20.9%	14.9%	125	-1.86	2.13	294	67
Jack Leathersich L 2018 · 4.55 FIP	28	SU	4.55	21.7%	19.8%	1.4%	.224	—	—	—	—	—	3.16	101	66
Patrick McCoy L 2016 · 4.28 FIP	27	SU	4.28	15.4%	13.8%	1.3%	.350	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	127	66
Matt Purke L 2018 · 4.29 FIP	28	SU	4.29	16.1%	16.0%	0.9%	.344	—	—	—	—	—	3.01	226	66
Locke St. John L 2022 · 5.62 FIP	29	SU	5.62	16.5%	12.8%	4.2%	.233	—	—	—	—	—	3.07	389	66
Ron Mahay L 2000 · 6.03 FIP	29	SU	6.03	16.1%	12.1%	5.0%	.353	4.58	22.4%	12.1%	81	-1.45	3.14	568	65