Dillan Shrum1B
Northwest Arkansas Naturals
Age 28
R/L
5'11" / 200 lbs
AA
HR -5%BB +4%
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034
wRC+†75
AVG/OBP/SLG.185 / .278 / .343
PA250
HR8
K%40
BB%8
MLB%2%
Scouting · now → future
HIT
20→20
PWR
50→50
SPD
42→42
EYE
44→44
trajectory · 10 yrs
-0.5peak
2026
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2029
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2034
First FA Year 2035
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | — | — | — |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | — | — | — |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | — | — | — |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.2M | — | — | — |
| 2033 | Ext | beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate | |||
| 2034 | Ext | beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate | |||
| Totals | $-14M | $-21M | -$7M | ||
Why some years run red
On long-term deals the salary is locked in regardless of how the player ages. Late years are red whenever projected production drops below the AAV — that's expected, not a sign the deal is bad. The honest scorecard is the Net Surplus over the whole contract, not any single year.
On long-term deals the salary is locked in regardless of how the player ages. Late years are red whenever projected production drops below the AAV — that's expected, not a sign the deal is bad. The honest scorecard is the Net Surplus over the whole contract, not any single year.
Career Projections (MLE)
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 23 | A | 2 teams | 58 | 52 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 30 | 3 | 1 | 0 | .154 | .241 | .269 | .511 | .115 | .300 | 52 | 5 | .213 | 21 | -5 | +0 | +0 | -1 | +2 | -0.4 |
| 2022 | 24 | A+ | Quad Cities River Bandits | 383 | 330 | 58 | 16 | 1 | 12 | 33 | 161 | 17 | 1 | 0 | .176 | .284 | .339 | .624 | .164 | .287 | 42 | 9 | .271 | 66 | -15 | +0 | +0 | -7 | +11 | -1.1 |
| 2023 | 25 | AA | Northwest Arkansas Naturals | 358 | 293 | 52 | 8 | 2 | 12 | 38 | 148 | 23 | 2 | 2 | .177 | .319 | .341 | .661 | .164 | .296 | 41 | 11 | .294 | 83 | -7 | -0 | +0 | -6 | +10 | -0.4 |
| 2024 | 26 | AA | Northwest Arkansas Naturals | 457 | 413 | 71 | 13 | 3 | 15 | 29 | 190 | 12 | 0 | 0 | .172 | .247 | .327 | .574 | .155 | .265 | 42 | 6 | .251 | 50 | -26 | +0 | +0 | -8 | +13 | -2.1 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | MLB | KC | 250 | 220 | 40 | 7 | 1 | 8 | 20 | 101 | 8 | 2 | 1 | .182 | .274 | .332 | .606 | .150 | .291 | 40 | 8 | .283 | 75 | -7 | +0 | +0 | -4 | +7 | -0.5 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB 9% | KC | 258 | 227 | 43 | 8 | 1 | 8 | 21 | 100 | 8 | 2 | 1 | .189 | .281 | .339 | .620 | .150 | .290 | 39 | 8 | .285 | 76 | -7 | +0 | -1 | -5 | +7 | -0.6 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB 19% | KC | 301 | 264 | 51 | 9 | 1 | 10 | 25 | 114 | 9 | 2 | 1 | .193 | .285 | .348 | .634 | .155 | .289 | 38 | 8 | .285 | 76 | -8 | +0 | -2 | -5 | +9 | -0.7 |
| 2029 | 31 | MLB 29% | KC | 316 | 278 | 55 | 10 | 2 | 10 | 26 | 119 | 9 | 1 | 1 | .198 | .288 | .356 | .644 | .158 | .288 | 38 | 8 | .283 | 75 | -9 | -0 | -3 | -6 | +9 | -0.9 |
| 2030 | 32 | MLB 40% | KC | 316 | 279 | 53 | 10 | 1 | 9 | 26 | 119 | 8 | 1 | 1 | .190 | .278 | .330 | .608 | .140 | .286 | 38 | 8 | .280 | 72 | -10 | -0 | -4 | -6 | +9 | -1.1 |
| 2031 | 33 | MLB 49% | KC | 298 | 263 | 49 | 9 | 1 | 9 | 25 | 114 | 8 | 1 | 1 | .186 | .277 | .331 | .608 | .144 | .284 | 38 | 8 | .274 | 68 | -11 | -0 | -4 | -5 | +8 | -1.2 |
| 2032 | 34 | MLB 63% | KC | 263 | 233 | 42 | 8 | 1 | 7 | 21 | 103 | 7 | 1 | 2 | .180 | .268 | .313 | .582 | .133 | .282 | 39 | 8 | .268 | 63 | -11 | -1 | -5 | -5 | +7 | -1.4 |
| ▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 3258 | 2852 | 522 | 98 | 14 | 102 | 267 | 1299 | 112 | 14 | 10 | .183 | .279 | .335 | .613 | .151 | .286 | 40 | 8 | .275 | 69 | -115 | -1 | -19 | -58 | +92 | -10.3 | ||
| / 162G | — | 650 | 569 | 104 | 20 | 3 | 20 | 53 | 259 | 22 | 3 | 2 | .183 | .278 | .334 | .612 | .151 | .286 | 40 | 8 | .275 | 69 | -23 | -0 | -4 | -12 | +18 | -2.1 | ||
Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)
Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 23 | A | Columbia Fireflies | 35 | 31 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 0 | .194 | .286 | .290 | .576 | .097 | .294 | 37 | 9 | .270 | 64 | -1 | +0 | — | — | +1 | -0.0 |
| 2021 | 23 | ROK | ACL Royals Gold | 23 | 20 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 0 | .300 | .391 | .600 | .991 | .300 | .400 | 35 | 4 | .433 | 189 | +2 | +0 | — | — | +1 | 0.3 |
| 2022 | 24 | A+ | Quad Cities River Bandits | 383 | 311 | 74 | 22 | 1 | 16 | 52 | 129 | 17 | 1 | 0 | .238 | .376 | .469 | .846 | .232 | .343 | 34 | 14 | .375 | 145 | +20 | +0 | — | — | +11 | 3.1 |
| 2023 | 25 | AA | Northwest Arkansas Naturals | 358 | 277 | 65 | 12 | 2 | 13 | 54 | 115 | 23 | 2 | 2 | .235 | .401 | .433 | .834 | .199 | .344 | 32 | 15 | .376 | 146 | +19 | -0 | — | — | +10 | 2.9 |
| 2024 | 26 | AA | Northwest Arkansas Naturals | 457 | 397 | 93 | 19 | 3 | 16 | 45 | 144 | 12 | 0 | 0 | .234 | .330 | .418 | .749 | .184 | .321 | 32 | 10 | .334 | 114 | +7 | +0 | — | — | +13 | 2.0 |
Career Path Comps
What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Scouting | At Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Peak 3 Yrs | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | HIT | PWR | SPD | EYE | AVG/OBP/SLG | ISO | BABIP | HR | SB | K% | BB% | wRC+ | WAR | AVG/OBP/SLG | ISO | BABIP | HR | SB | K% | BB% | wRC+ | WAR | AVG/OBP/SLG | ISO | BABIP | HR | SB | K% | BB% | wRC+ | WAR |
| Dillan Shrum (OGILVIE) | 28 | 20 | 50 | 42 | 44 | .185/.278/.343 | .157 | .291 | 8 | 2 | 40% | 8% | 75 | -0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
|
✕Travis Taijeron 2017 · AAA |
28 | 41 | 50→55 | 39→40 | 42 | .200/.285/.356 | .156 | .314 | 17 | 3 | 39% | 9% | 79 | +0.3 | .194/.280/.345 | .151 | .314 | 17 | 4 | 40% | 9% | 75 | -0.0 | .180/.273/.340 | .160 | .291 | 19 | 3 | 41% | 9% | 67 | -0.4 |
|
✕Hunter Owen 2021 · AAA |
27 | 41→38 | 53→55 | 43→40 | 33 | .213/.273/.381 | .168 | .309 | 22 | 5 | 37% | 4% | 82 | +0.5 | .203/.260/.350 | .147 | .315 | 19 | 5 | 40% | 5% | 67 | -0.5 | .174/.223/.318 | .144 | .265 | 23 | 3 | 43% | 4% | 42 | -1.4 |
|
✕Brandon Waring 2014 · AAA |
28 | 35→41 | 54→55 | 45→40 | 37 | .194/.259/.369 | .175 | .277 | 23 | 2 | 38% | 6% | 72 | -0.2 | .189/.254/.341 | .152 | .324 | 18 | 5 | 45% | 6% | 63 | -0.9 | .157/.225/.298 | .141 | .292 | 16 | 2 | 49% | 6% | 37 | -1.8 |
|
✕Jim Murphy 2014 · AA |
28 | 42→43 | 49→50 | 42→30 | 41 | .217/.275/.367 | .150 | .286 | 17 | 2 | 30% | 6% | 77 | +0.1 | .216/.278/.348 | .132 | .283 | 14 | 4 | 28% | 7% | 74 | -0.1 | .201/.271/.328 | .127 | .258 | 14 | 1 | 27% | 8% | 63 | -0.6 |
|
✕Devin Harris 2015 · AA |
27 | 38→39 | 51→55 | 43→40 | 37 | .205/.251/.370 | .165 | .274 | 19 | 3 | 33% | 5% | 68 | -0.5 | .212/.257/.366 | .154 | .289 | 18 | 6 | 32% | 5% | 69 | -0.4 | .198/.244/.354 | .156 | .261 | 19 | 4 | 32% | 5% | 57 | -0.9 |
|
✕Kiel Roling 2013 · AA |
26 | 38→36 | 51→55 | 42→30 | 36 | .204/.251/.356 | .152 | .286 | 20 | 3 | 36% | 6% | 65 | -0.7 | .213/.262/.374 | .161 | .285 | 20 | 4 | 32% | 6% | 74 | -0.1 | .200/.251/.369 | .169 | .254 | 22 | 0 | 30% | 6% | 67 | -0.4 |
|
✕Cody Decker 2015 · AAA |
28 | 36→39 | 56→65 | 37→30 | 40 | .200/.263/.386 | .186 | .272 | 24 | 2 | 36% | 7% | 78 | +0.2 | .192/.251/.359 | .167 | .277 | 22 | 3 | 38% | 6% | 66 | -0.6 | .183/.255/.341 | .158 | .267 | 21 | 0 | 38% | 8% | 62 | -0.3 |
|
✕Logan Hill 2019 · AA |
26 | 39→40 | 50 | 41→45 | 39 | .205/.267/.356 | .151 | .290 | 19 | 5 | 35% | 6% | 72 | -0.2 | .209/.270/.357 | .148 | .300 | 18 | 4 | 35% | 7% | 73 | -0.1 | .198/.259/.343 | .145 | .279 | 17 | 1 | 34% | 6% | 62 | -0.8 |
|
✕Patrick Breen 2009 · AA |
27 | 39→40 | 50→55 | 43→45 | 39 | .199/.266/.355 | .156 | .307 | 18 | 8 | 40% | 8% | 71 | -0.3 | .206/.294/.312 | .106 | .319 | 10 | 11 | 35% | 9% | 72 | -0.2 | .162/.295/.228 | .066 | .258 | 9 | 11 | 36% | 12% | 53 | -0.3 |
|
✕Alex Burg 2016 · AAA |
28 | 44→42 | 50 | 44→40 | 45 | .225/.298/.374 | .150 | .303 | 18 | 4 | 31% | 8% | 89 | +1.0 | .209/.270/.346 | .137 | .275 | 16 | 5 | 29% | 7% | 70 | -0.3 | .172/.224/.285 | .113 | .224 | 12 | 2 | 29% | 5% | 32 | -1.5 |
|
✕Jacob Heyward 2022 · AA |
26 | 38→40 | 50 | 42→50 | 44 | .192/.286/.345 | .153 | .293 | 18 | 8 | 38% | 10% | 78 | +0.2 | .193/.266/.328 | .135 | .309 | 17 | 5 | 40% | 8% | 64 | -0.8 | .160/.236/.267 | .107 | .265 | 15 | 1 | 43% | 8% | 34 | -1.7 |
|
✕Richie Shaffer 2018 · MLB |
27 | 37→39 | 51→55 | 46→40 | 41 | .196/.268/.351 | .156 | .281 | 20 | 5 | 36% | 8% | 71 | -0.3 | .183/.247/.322 | .139 | .302 | 17 | 6 | 43% | 7% | 54 | -1.4 | .118/.176/.240 | .122 | .203 | 15 | 0 | 49% | 6% | 1 | -2.1 |
|
✕Kyle Jensen 2015 · AAA |
27 | 36→46 | 53→60 | 44→40 | 39 | .196/.262/.365 | .168 | .273 | 22 | 4 | 36% | 7% | 72 | -0.2 | .205/.255/.373 | .168 | .285 | 21 | 3 | 35% | 5% | 71 | -0.3 | .190/.237/.349 | .159 | .269 | 21 | 0 | 37% | 5% | 55 | -1.0 |
|
✕Brock Kjeldgaard 2013 · AA |
27 | 40→43 | 50 | 46→45 | 36 | .198/.266/.349 | .150 | .316 | 18 | 7 | 41% | 7% | 69 | -0.4 | .192/.271/.343 | .151 | .290 | 20 | 5 | 38% | 8% | 70 | -0.3 | .169/.253/.323 | .154 | .238 | 23 | 0 | 38% | 8% | 56 | -1.2 |
|
✕Stewart Ijames 2017 · AA |
28 | 39 | 54→65 | 44→45 | 39 | .211/.271/.392 | .182 | .293 | 23 | 5 | 36% | 7% | 83 | +0.6 | .207/.269/.356 | .149 | .313 | 17 | 7 | 37% | 7% | 72 | -0.2 | .173/.240/.327 | .153 | .267 | 20 | 6 | 41% | 8% | 52 | -0.4 |
|
✕Zach Green 2022 · MLB |
28 | 39→43 | 54→60 | 44→40 | 37 | .198/.271/.374 | .176 | .327 | 23 | 4 | 44% | 8% | 79 | +0.3 | .196/.253/.351 | .155 | .301 | 18 | 5 | 39% | 6% | 65 | -0.7 | .172/.225/.332 | .160 | .247 | 19 | 1 | 38% | 5% | 46 | -1.3 |
|
✕Clint Coulter 2021 · AAA |
28 | 44→43 | 48→50 | 48→40 | 35 | .212/.266/.356 | .143 | .329 | 15 | 7 | 38% | 6% | 71 | -0.3 | .220/.280/.378 | .158 | .288 | 19 | 6 | 30% | 6% | 83 | +0.6 | .205/.273/.359 | .153 | .249 | 19 | 4 | 25% | 5% | 71 | -0.1 |
|
✕Quincy Latimore 2017 · AA |
28 | 41→42 | 48→50 | 46→50 | 41 | .210/.264/.348 | .138 | .277 | 16 | 8 | 30% | 6% | 67 | -0.5 | .214/.263/.345 | .131 | .291 | 16 | 7 | 31% | 6% | 66 | -0.6 | .216/.254/.339 | .124 | .283 | 17 | 6 | 30% | 4% | 57 | -0.8 |
|
✕Mike Olt 2017 · MLB |
28 | 39→41 | 51→55 | 41→40 | 41 | .206/.272/.362 | .156 | .295 | 20 | 4 | 36% | 8% | 76 | +0.0 | .203/.272/.344 | .141 | .296 | 17 | 3 | 35% | 8% | 70 | -0.3 | .186/.261/.327 | .141 | .266 | 17 | 0 | 35% | 8% | 58 | -0.7 |
|
✕Cody Overbeck 2014 · AAA |
28 | 43→46 | 50 | 38→30 | 36 | .221/.262/.369 | .148 | .292 | 18 | 3 | 31% | 4% | 72 | -0.2 | .215/.251/.370 | .155 | .293 | 21 | 5 | 33% | 4% | 68 | -0.5 | .191/.215/.346 | .154 | .247 | 25 | 0 | 35% | 3% | 43 | -1.0 |