Dillan Shrum1B Northwest Arkansas Naturals
Age 28 R/L 5'11" / 200 lbs AA HR -5%BB +4% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034
wRC+†75
AVG/OBP/SLG.185 / .278 / .343
PA250
HR8
K%40
BB%8
MLB%2%
BAT: -7.1 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)-7BATRUN: -0.2 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)-0RUNFLD: +0.0 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)+0FLDPOS: -4.5 runs (Positional adjustment)-4POSREP: +7.1 runs (Replacement-level credit)+7REPTotal WAR: -0.50-0.5WAR
Scouting · nowfuture
HIT
2020
PWR
5050
SPD
4242
EYE
4444
trajectory · 10 yrs
-0.5peak
2026

Contract

ESTIMATED  ·  service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   MiLB
MLB Debut   2029
Service   0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through   2034
First FA Year   2035
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2026MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029Arb-1$0.8M
2030Arb-2$0.9M
2031Arb-3$0.9M
2032Ext / FA-deal$0.2M
2033Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals $-14M $-21M -$7M
Why some years run red
On long-term deals the salary is locked in regardless of how the player ages. Late years are red whenever projected production drops below the AAV — that's expected, not a sign the deal is bad. The honest scorecard is the Net Surplus over the whole contract, not any single year.

Career Projections (MLE)

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

YearAge LvlTeam PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
202123 A2 teams 5852 8002 3303 10 .154.241.269.511 .115.300 525 .213 21 -5 +0 +0 -1 +2 -0.4
202224 A+Quad Cities River Bandits 383330 5816112 3316117 10 .176.284.339.624 .164.287 429 .271 66 -15 +0 +0 -7 +11 -1.1
202325 AANorthwest Arkansas Naturals 358293 528212 3814823 22 .177.319.341.661 .164.296 4111 .294 83 -7 -0 +0 -6 +10 -0.4
202426 AANorthwest Arkansas Naturals 457413 7113315 2919012 00 .172.247.327.574 .155.265 426 .251 50 -26 +0 +0 -8 +13 -2.1
▸ 2026 Season
202628 MLBKC 250220 40718 201018 21 .182.274.332.606 .150.291 408 .283 75 -7 +0 +0 -4 +7 -0.5
▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve
202729 MLB 9%KC 258227 43818 211008 21 .189.281.339.620 .150.290 398 .285 76 -7 +0 -1 -5 +7 -0.6
202830 MLB 19%KC 301264 519110 251149 21 .193.285.348.634 .155.289 388 .285 76 -8 +0 -2 -5 +9 -0.7
202931 MLB 29%KC 316278 5510210 261199 11 .198.288.356.644 .158.288 388 .283 75 -9 -0 -3 -6 +9 -0.9
203032 MLB 40%KC 316279 531019 261198 11 .190.278.330.608 .140.286 388 .280 72 -10 -0 -4 -6 +9 -1.1
203133 MLB 49%KC 298263 49919 251148 11 .186.277.331.608 .144.284 388 .274 68 -11 -0 -4 -5 +8 -1.2
203234 MLB 63%KC 263233 42817 211037 12 .180.268.313.582 .133.282 398 .268 63 -11 -1 -5 -5 +7 -1.4
▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections)
Career 32582852 5229814102 2671299112 1410 .183.279.335.613 .151.286 408 .275 69 -115 -1 -19 -58 +92 -10.3
/ 162G 650569 10420320 5325922 32 .183.278.334.612 .151.286 408 .275 69 -23 -0 -4 -12 +18 -2.1

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

YearAge LvlTeam PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
202123 AColumbia Fireflies 3531 6001 3131 00 .194.286.290.576 .097.294 379 .270 64 -1 +0 +1 -0.0
202123 ROKACL Royals Gold 2320 6002 182 10 .300.391.600.991 .300.400 354 .433 189 +2 +0 +1 0.3
202224 A+Quad Cities River Bandits 383311 7422116 5212917 10 .238.376.469.846 .232.343 3414 .375 145 +20 +0 +11 3.1
202325 AANorthwest Arkansas Naturals 358277 6512213 5411523 22 .235.401.433.834 .199.344 3215 .376 146 +19 -0 +10 2.9
202426 AANorthwest Arkansas Naturals 457397 9319316 4514412 00 .234.330.418.749 .184.321 3210 .334 114 +7 +0 +13 2.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

Scouting At Match Age Next 3 Yrs Peak 3 Yrs
Comp Age HIT PWR SPD EYE AVG/OBP/SLG ISOBABIP HRSB K%BB% wRC+WAR AVG/OBP/SLG ISOBABIP HRSB K%BB% wRC+WAR AVG/OBP/SLG ISOBABIP HRSB K%BB% wRC+WAR
Dillan Shrum (OGILVIE) 28 20 50 42 44 .185/.278/.343 .157.291 82 40% 8% 75 -0.0
Travis Taijeron
2017 · AAA
28 41 50→55 39→40 42 .200/.285/.356 .156.314 173 39% 9% 79 +0.3 .194/.280/.345 .151.314 174 40% 9% 75 -0.0 .180/.273/.340.160.29119341%9%67-0.4
Hunter Owen
2021 · AAA
27 41→38 53→55 43→40 33 .213/.273/.381 .168.309 225 37% 4% 82 +0.5 .203/.260/.350 .147.315 195 40% 5% 67 -0.5 .174/.223/.318.144.26523343%4%42-1.4
Brandon Waring
2014 · AAA
28 35→41 54→55 45→40 37 .194/.259/.369 .175.277 232 38% 6% 72 -0.2 .189/.254/.341 .152.324 185 45% 6% 63 -0.9 .157/.225/.298.141.29216249%6%37-1.8
Jim Murphy
2014 · AA
28 42→43 49→50 42→30 41 .217/.275/.367 .150.286 172 30% 6% 77 +0.1 .216/.278/.348 .132.283 144 28% 7% 74 -0.1 .201/.271/.328.127.25814127%8%63-0.6
Devin Harris
2015 · AA
27 38→39 51→55 43→40 37 .205/.251/.370 .165.274 193 33% 5% 68 -0.5 .212/.257/.366 .154.289 186 32% 5% 69 -0.4 .198/.244/.354.156.26119432%5%57-0.9
Kiel Roling
2013 · AA
26 38→36 51→55 42→30 36 .204/.251/.356 .152.286 203 36% 6% 65 -0.7 .213/.262/.374 .161.285 204 32% 6% 74 -0.1 .200/.251/.369.169.25422030%6%67-0.4
Cody Decker
2015 · AAA
28 36→39 56→65 37→30 40 .200/.263/.386 .186.272 242 36% 7% 78 +0.2 .192/.251/.359 .167.277 223 38% 6% 66 -0.6 .183/.255/.341.158.26721038%8%62-0.3
Logan Hill
2019 · AA
26 39→40 50 41→45 39 .205/.267/.356 .151.290 195 35% 6% 72 -0.2 .209/.270/.357 .148.300 184 35% 7% 73 -0.1 .198/.259/.343.145.27917134%6%62-0.8
Patrick Breen
2009 · AA
27 39→40 50→55 43→45 39 .199/.266/.355 .156.307 188 40% 8% 71 -0.3 .206/.294/.312 .106.319 1011 35% 9% 72 -0.2 .162/.295/.228.066.25891136%12%53-0.3
Alex Burg
2016 · AAA
28 44→42 50 44→40 45 .225/.298/.374 .150.303 184 31% 8% 89 +1.0 .209/.270/.346 .137.275 165 29% 7% 70 -0.3 .172/.224/.285.113.22412229%5%32-1.5
Jacob Heyward
2022 · AA
26 38→40 50 42→50 44 .192/.286/.345 .153.293 188 38% 10% 78 +0.2 .193/.266/.328 .135.309 175 40% 8% 64 -0.8 .160/.236/.267.107.26515143%8%34-1.7
Richie Shaffer
2018 · MLB
27 37→39 51→55 46→40 41 .196/.268/.351 .156.281 205 36% 8% 71 -0.3 .183/.247/.322 .139.302 176 43% 7% 54 -1.4 .118/.176/.240.122.20315049%6%1-2.1
Kyle Jensen
2015 · AAA
27 36→46 53→60 44→40 39 .196/.262/.365 .168.273 224 36% 7% 72 -0.2 .205/.255/.373 .168.285 213 35% 5% 71 -0.3 .190/.237/.349.159.26921037%5%55-1.0
Brock Kjeldgaard
2013 · AA
27 40→43 50 46→45 36 .198/.266/.349 .150.316 187 41% 7% 69 -0.4 .192/.271/.343 .151.290 205 38% 8% 70 -0.3 .169/.253/.323.154.23823038%8%56-1.2
Stewart Ijames
2017 · AA
28 39 54→65 44→45 39 .211/.271/.392 .182.293 235 36% 7% 83 +0.6 .207/.269/.356 .149.313 177 37% 7% 72 -0.2 .173/.240/.327.153.26720641%8%52-0.4
Zach Green
2022 · MLB
28 39→43 54→60 44→40 37 .198/.271/.374 .176.327 234 44% 8% 79 +0.3 .196/.253/.351 .155.301 185 39% 6% 65 -0.7 .172/.225/.332.160.24719138%5%46-1.3
Clint Coulter
2021 · AAA
28 44→43 48→50 48→40 35 .212/.266/.356 .143.329 157 38% 6% 71 -0.3 .220/.280/.378 .158.288 196 30% 6% 83 +0.6 .205/.273/.359.153.24919425%5%71-0.1
Quincy Latimore
2017 · AA
28 41→42 48→50 46→50 41 .210/.264/.348 .138.277 168 30% 6% 67 -0.5 .214/.263/.345 .131.291 167 31% 6% 66 -0.6 .216/.254/.339.124.28317630%4%57-0.8
Mike Olt
2017 · MLB
28 39→41 51→55 41→40 41 .206/.272/.362 .156.295 204 36% 8% 76 +0.0 .203/.272/.344 .141.296 173 35% 8% 70 -0.3 .186/.261/.327.141.26617035%8%58-0.7
Cody Overbeck
2014 · AAA
28 43→46 50 38→30 36 .221/.262/.369 .148.292 183 31% 4% 72 -0.2 .215/.251/.370 .155.293 215 33% 4% 68 -0.5 .191/.215/.346.154.24725035%3%43-1.0