Eli Villalobos

P El Paso Chihuahuas

Age 30 RHP 6'4" / 195 lbs AAA

Overview

AAARPROOKIE

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	26	MIX2 levels	45	55	4.77	5.77	21.0%	17.6%	—	K 17.7% · BB 16.4% · FIP 5.67
2024	27	MIX4 levels	22	28	5.72	4.94	22.4%	14.9%	-0.1	K 20.6% · BB 14.4% · FIP 5.47
2026	29	AAASD	12	16	5.74	5.59	20.9%	7.5%	—	K 18.0% · BB 6.7% · FIP 6.04
2027PROJ	30	MLBSD	9	9	4.77	4.77	20.0%	8.6%	-0.0
2028PROJ37% MLB	31	MLBSD	7	7	4.85	4.93	19.9%	9.0%	-0.0

Last 3 seasons WAR -0.1 · Next 2 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 99%

CompsNeil Wagner (age 29) · Joe Nelson (age 31) · Wirfin Obispo (age 30)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 124116vR 108

ERA4.77

FIP4.77

K%20.0%

BB%8.6%

K-BB%11.4%

Proj IP9

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 9 IP

Grades · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4545

FB+1.2 (54%)

SL-1.4 (31%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2018	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	2	0	2	10	2	1	0	0%	1.0	20.0%	10.0%	10.0%	0.0%	9.00	2.68	—
2018	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	2	0	2	10	2	1	0	0%	1.0	20.0%	10.0%	10.0%	0.0%	9.00	2.60	—
2021	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	0	45	194	72	16	5	0%	1.4	28.1%	9.6%	18.5%	3.3%	3.63	3.75	—
2021	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	32	0	45	194	72	16	5	0%	1.4	37.1%	8.2%	28.9%	2.6%	3.63	2.41	—
2022	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	52	0	79	309	101	29	10	0%	1.5	27.1%	10.2%	16.9%	3.7%	2.86	4.13	—
2022	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	52	0	79	309	101	29	10	0%	1.5	32.7%	9.4%	23.3%	3.2%	2.86	3.29	—
2023	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	45	0	55	267	56	47	9	0%	1.2	17.7%	16.4%	1.3%	3.6%	4.77	5.67	—
2023	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	45	0	55	267	56	47	9	0%	1.2	21.0%	17.6%	3.4%	3.4%	4.77	5.77	—
2024	27	MIX MLE	4 levels	22	0	28	134	30	20	4	0%	1.3	20.6%	14.4%	6.2%	4.2%	5.72	5.47	-0.3
2024	27	MIX MLE	4 levels	22	0	28	134	30	20	4	0%	1.3	20.6%	14.4%	6.2%	4.2%	5.72	5.47	-0.3
2024	27	MIX RAW	4 levels	22	0	28	134	30	20	4	0%	1.3	22.4%	14.9%	7.5%	3.0%	5.72	4.94	-0.1
2026	29	AAA MLE	El Paso Chihuahuas	12	0	16	67	14	5	4	0%	1.3	18.0%	6.7%	11.3%	6.6%	5.74	6.04	—
2026	29	AAA MLE	El Paso Chihuahuas	12	0	16	67	14	5	4	0%	1.3	18.0%	6.7%	11.3%	6.6%	5.74	6.04	—
2026	29	AAA RAW	El Paso Chihuahuas	12	0	16	67	14	5	4	0%	1.3	20.9%	7.5%	13.4%	6.0%	5.74	5.59	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			3	0	4	18	3	2	1	0%	1.4	16.7%	11.1%	5.6%	5.6%	2.08	6.10	-0.1
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	30	MLB	SD	9	0	9	38	8	3	1	0%	1.0	20.0%	8.6%	11.4%	3.4%	4.77	4.77	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	31	MLB MLE	SD	19	0	20	84	17	8	3	0%	1.1	19.9%	9.0%	10.9%	3.6%	4.85	4.93	-0.1
2028	31	MLB CTX	SD	7	0	7	30	6	3	1	0%	1.0	19.9%	9.0%	10.9%	3.6%	4.85	4.93	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		10	0	12	49	9	5	2	0%	1.2	18.7%	9.8%	8.9%	4.3%	3.82	5.14	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		171	0	200	839	154	86	34	0%	1.2	18.7%	9.8%	8.9%	4.3%	3.82	5.14	-1.4
Career	—	MLE		165	0	224	981	227	119	37	0%	1.4	23.2%	12.1%	11.0%	3.8%	4.10	4.77	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		147	0	200	876	203	106	33	0%	1.4	23.2%	12.1%	11.0%	3.8%	4.10	4.77	-1.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Eli Villalobos (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.77	20.0%	8.6%	3.4%	—	4.93	19.9%	10.9%	20	+0.16	—	—	—
Neil Wagner R 2013 · 4.02 FIP	29	SU	4.02	20.5%	7.5%	3.1%	.306	4.05	19.8%	7.5%	43	+0.03	3.11	135	88
Joe Nelson R 2006 · 3.91 FIP	31	SU	3.91	22.8%	10.4%	2.6%	.258	4.05	23.4%	12.8%	94	+0.14	3.08	139	83
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	83
Scott Atchison R 2007 · 4.55 FIP	31	SU	4.55	19.1%	7.6%	3.8%	.297	4.59	16.2%	9.5%	60	+0.04	2.52	340	82
Jim Miller R 2012 · 4.56 FIP	30	SU	4.56	20.9%	11.8%	3.1%	.243	3.95	18.8%	14.7%	74	-0.61	3.95	140	81
Esteban Haro R 2016 · 4.55 FIP	30	SU	4.55	17.1%	10.2%	2.9%	.338	3.83	11.6%	6.3%	75	-0.72	3.76	164	80
Jose Manuel Lopez R 2015 · 5.21 FIP	30	SU	5.21	18.6%	7.6%	4.9%	.373	3.56	18.5%	9.3%	93	-1.65	3.50	170	80
Angel Castro R 2015 · 4.50 FIP	32	SU	4.50	15.9%	8.0%	3.1%	.268	4.28	13.6%	5.5%	231	-0.22	3.51	292	79
Adrian Garza R 2017 · 4.47 FIP	29	SU	4.47	16.0%	7.0%	3.4%	.351	5.18	9.7%	4.1%	113	+0.71	3.94	229	78
Jeremy Fikac R 2004 · 4.91 FIP	29	SU	4.91	19.6%	8.0%	4.5%	.276	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	136	77
Dustin Molleken R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	30	SU	3.74	20.4%	11.7%	1.6%	.287	3.90	20.6%	8.4%	77	+0.16	3.38	129	77
Adrian Ramirez R 2019 · 4.29 FIP	31	SU	4.29	21.7%	6.3%	4.0%	.327	—	—	—	—	—	3.04	137	76
Marc Magliaro R 2018 · 3.94 FIP	28	SU	3.94	19.6%	7.3%	2.9%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.94	125	76
Francisco Mendoza R 2016 · 3.81 FIP	28	SU	3.81	17.9%	7.7%	2.3%	.344	—	—	—	—	—	3.13	120	75
Carlos Fisher R 2011 · 4.33 FIP	28	SU	4.33	15.5%	9.1%	2.5%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	2.48	245	75
Erik Davis R 2017 · 4.25 FIP	30	SU	4.25	22.2%	11.1%	3.0%	.349	3.52	17.4%	8.5%	65	-0.73	3.05	227	75
Andrew Robinson R 2017 · 4.32 FIP	29	SU	4.32	23.4%	8.8%	3.8%	.245	—	—	—	—	—	3.19	160	75
Ivan Zavala R 2017 · 5.02 FIP	30	SU	5.02	12.8%	8.0%	3.6%	.286	5.15	12.7%	5.3%	61	+0.13	4.27	209	74
Greg Burke R 2013 · 3.70 FIP	30	SU	3.70	17.9%	8.3%	1.9%	.357	3.61	22.1%	14.8%	62	-0.09	3.61	139	74
Scott Dohmann R 2008 · 4.38 FIP	30	SU	4.38	18.2%	9.1%	3.0%	.348	—	—	—	—	—	4.28	173	74