Connor Van Scoyoc

P Harrisburg Senators

Age 27 RHP 6'6" / 234 lbs AA peak 0.2 · 2027

Overview

AAPROSPECT

ETA2029MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	24	AACOL	23	22	115	4.46	4.31	14.9%	8.8%	—	K 12.1% · BB 9.7% · FIP 5.07
2025	25	AAACOL	41	0	86	4.19	3.95	12.5%	7.9%	—	K 10.8% · BB 7.1% · FIP 4.06
2026	26	MIX2 levels	30	5	74	4.84	4.35	21.5%	7.8%	—	K 17.5% · BB 8.3% · FIP 5.06
2027PROJ	27	MLBWSH	67	0	70	5.41	5.41	11.6%	9.2%	-0.7
2028PROJ38% MLB	28	MLBWSH	25	0	26	5.35	5.38	12.6%	9.3%	-0.2
2029PROJ56% MLB	29	MLBWSH	34	0	36	5.37	5.43	13.2%	9.6%	-0.3

Next 3 projected WAR -1.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff30Control55Command35

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 97%

CompsBryce Morrow (age 27) · Mike Connolly (age 26) · Alfonso Sanchez (age 27)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 136128vR 120

ERA5.41

FIP5.41

K%11.6%

BB%9.2%

K-BB%2.4%

Proj IP70

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 70 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3030

CTRL5555

CMD3535

K†3030

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2019	19	ROK MLE	AZL Angels	12	5	40	199	50	36	1	42%	3.4	17.1%	22.6%	-5.5%	0.7%	5.13	4.91	—
2019	19	ROK RAW	AZL Angels	12	5	40	199	50	36	1	42%	3.4	25.1%	18.1%	7.0%	0.5%	5.13	3.62	—
2021	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	12	8	42	202	51	24	2	67%	3.5	18.1%	14.4%	3.7%	1.2%	6.48	4.06	—
2021	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	12	8	42	202	51	24	2	67%	3.5	25.2%	11.9%	13.4%	1.0%	6.48	3.00	—
2022	22	A MLE	Inland Empire 66ers	23	22	120	506	140	39	10	96%	5.2	20.5%	9.1%	11.4%	2.9%	4.28	4.11	—
2022	22	A RAW	Inland Empire 66ers	23	22	120	506	140	39	10	96%	5.2	27.7%	7.7%	20.0%	2.0%	4.28	2.83	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	23	128	538	114	45	14	100%	5.6	16.6%	9.5%	7.1%	3.1%	3.80	4.58	—
2023	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	23	128	538	114	45	14	100%	5.6	21.2%	8.4%	12.8%	2.6%	3.80	3.80	—
2024	24	AA MLE	Hartford Yard Goats	23	22	115	489	73	43	12	96%	5.0	12.1%	9.7%	2.4%	3.2%	4.46	5.07	—
2024	24	AA MLE	Hartford Yard Goats	23	22	115	489	73	43	12	96%	5.0	12.1%	9.7%	2.4%	3.2%	4.46	5.07	—
2024	24	AA RAW	Hartford Yard Goats	23	22	115	489	73	43	12	96%	5.0	14.9%	8.8%	6.1%	2.5%	4.46	4.31	—
2025	25	AAA MLE	Albuquerque Isotopes	41	0	86	368	46	29	6	0%	2.1	10.8%	7.1%	3.7%	1.8%	4.19	4.06	—
2025	25	AAA MLE	Albuquerque Isotopes	41	0	86	368	46	29	6	0%	2.1	10.8%	7.1%	3.7%	1.8%	4.19	4.06	—
2025	25	AAA RAW	Albuquerque Isotopes	41	0	86	368	46	29	6	0%	2.1	12.5%	7.9%	4.6%	1.6%	4.19	3.95	—
2026	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	5	74	321	69	25	12	17%	2.5	17.5%	8.3%	9.2%	4.4%	4.84	5.06	—
2026	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	5	74	321	69	25	12	17%	2.5	17.5%	8.3%	9.2%	4.4%	4.84	5.06	—
2026	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	5	74	321	69	25	12	17%	2.5	21.5%	7.8%	13.7%	3.7%	4.84	4.35	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	27	MLB	WSH	67	0	70	296	34	27	9	0%	1.0	11.6%	9.2%	2.4%	3.2%	5.41	5.41	-0.7
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	WSH	65	0	68	287	36	27	9	0%	1.0	12.6%	9.3%	3.3%	3.3%	5.35	5.38	-0.6
2029	29	MLB MLE	WSH	62	0	65	274	36	26	9	0%	1.0	13.2%	9.6%	3.7%	3.4%	5.37	5.43	-0.6
2028	28	MLB CTX	WSH	25	0	26	110	14	10	4	0%	1.0	12.6%	9.3%	3.3%	3.3%	5.35	5.38	-0.2
2029	29	MLB CTX	WSH	34	0	36	152	20	15	5	0%	1.1	13.2%	9.6%	3.7%	3.4%	5.37	5.43	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		59	0	62	260	34	25	9	0%	1.0	13.0%	9.5%	3.5%	3.3%	5.36	5.03	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	110	81	29	0%	1.1	13.0%	9.5%	3.5%	3.3%	5.36	5.03	-1.1
Career	—	MLE		164	85	605	2623	418	271	71	52%	3.7	15.9%	10.3%	5.6%	2.7%	4.48	4.55	-0.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		54	28	200	867	138	90	24	52%	3.7	15.9%	10.3%	5.6%	2.7%	4.48	4.55	-1.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Connor Van Scoyoc (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.41	11.6%	9.2%	3.2%	—	5.40	12.9%	3.5%	133	-0.01	—	—	—
Bryce Morrow R 2015 · 4.31 FIP	27	SP-	4.31	12.8%	7.9%	2.4%	.316	5.44	10.1%	-0.2%	50	+1.13	4.31	125	87
Mike Connolly R 2018 · 5.13 FIP	26	SW	5.13	13.2%	9.4%	3.5%	.321	—	—	—	—	—	3.94	328	83
Alfonso Sanchez R 2015 · 4.96 FIP	27	SP-	4.96	12.5%	9.1%	3.2%	.346	4.85	14.0%	5.3%	138	-0.11	4.51	224	83
Dennis O'Grady R 2015 · 4.95 FIP	26	SW	4.95	13.5%	11.0%	2.9%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	157	83
Scott McGregor R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	28	SP-	4.37	11.8%	7.6%	2.4%	.293	—	—	—	—	—	4.37	107	83
Colin Bates R 2015 · 4.57 FIP	27	SP-	4.57	10.5%	6.5%	2.8%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	4.57	111	82
Chris Jensen R 2018 · 5.31 FIP	27	SW	5.31	12.0%	10.6%	3.4%	.347	—	—	—	—	—	4.47	488	82
Edgar Alberto Garcia R 2015 · 5.24 FIP	27	SP-	5.24	11.6%	9.8%	3.4%	.263	4.28	15.3%	5.2%	167	-0.96	4.01	272	82
Nolan Sanburn R 2017 · 4.55 FIP	26	SW	4.55	15.0%	10.4%	2.5%	.310	—	—	—	—	—	3.82	169	82
Jon Leicester R 2007 · 4.44 FIP	28	SP-	4.44	11.0%	9.0%	2.1%	.292	—	—	—	—	—	3.76	113	81
Mike McCarthy R 2015 · 4.78 FIP	27	SP-	4.78	9.4%	9.1%	2.4%	.280	5.03	6.2%	-3.5%	37	+0.25	4.78	153	80
Josh Roeder R 2019 · 4.71 FIP	26	SW	4.71	15.1%	8.7%	3.3%	.264	—	—	—	—	—	4.71	175	80
Ivan Zavala R 2015 · 4.51 FIP	28	SP-	4.51	7.0%	4.7%	2.6%	.312	4.73	12.2%	4.3%	50	+0.22	4.27	209	80
Aldo Montes R 2017 · 4.96 FIP	27	SP-	4.96	12.4%	8.5%	3.3%	.322	4.69	18.2%	7.6%	75	-0.27	4.69	210	80
Adam Panayotovich R 2017 · 5.45 FIP	25	SP-	5.45	9.6%	9.0%	3.7%	.375	—	—	—	—	—	3.50	121	78
Orlando Rodriguez R 2023 · 4.67 FIP	27	SW	4.67	13.7%	10.6%	2.5%	.252	—	—	—	—	—	4.40	119	78
Tony Bucciferro R 2015 · 5.11 FIP	25	SP-	5.11	6.8%	6.2%	3.3%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	5.11	107	78
Jake McCasland R 2018 · 4.34 FIP	26	SW	4.34	12.8%	9.5%	2.0%	.313	—	—	—	—	—	3.07	367	78
Terance Marin R 2016 · 4.91 FIP	26	SP-	4.91	11.2%	7.7%	3.2%	.294	4.22	12.4%	7.5%	88	-0.69	3.54	322	77
Clay Condrey R 2003 · 5.41 FIP	27	SP-	5.41	14.9%	10.1%	4.2%	.303	4.07	13.1%	7.4%	29	-1.34	3.18	250	76

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	68	12.5%	9.4%	1.26	5.38
Brian Stokes ('10)	1.0	52	14.5%	10.1%	1.22	5.27
Eric Gunderson ('00)	1.1	76	13.3%	8.1%	1.14	4.95
Luther Hackman ('03)	1.1	71	13.3%	10.9%	1.10	5.09
Russ Swan ('89-'94, -2 WAR*)	1.3	89	12.3%*	9.9%*	1.13*	5.09*
Chuck Hartenstein ('66-'77, -1 WAR*)	1.5	59	13.7%*	7.2%*	1.50*	5.28*
Greg Booker ('83-'90, -1 WAR*)	1.3	53	13.3%*	10.2%*	1.07*	4.51*