Ethan Roberts

P Chicago Cubs

Age 30 RHP 5'10" / 180 lbs MLB

Overview

MLBRP40-MAN

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	27	MIX4 levels	37	0	45	2.82	3.37	24.5%	9.4%	0.6	K 23.8% · BB 8.3% · FIP 3.37
2025	28	MIX2 levels	46	1	51	2.84	3.26	27.3%	9.5%	0.8	K 25.7% · BB 9.4% · FIP 2.72
2026	29	MIX2 levels	48	0	52	4.01	4.57	19.2%	10.5%	-0.0	K 17.6% · BB 10.1% · FIP 4.78
2027PROJ	30	MLBCHC	69	0	72	4.40	4.57	20.3%	9.8%	-0.0
2028PROJ61% MLB	31	MLBCHC	39	0	41	4.61	4.77	19.9%	10.1%	-0.1
2029PROJ72% MLB	32	MLBCHC	42	0	44	4.83	4.99	19.4%	10.5%	-0.2

Last 3 seasons WAR 1.4 · Next 3 projected WAR -0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

FB Velo37

Whiff%31

xwOBA vs24

K%10

CompsJoe Nelson (age 31) · Neil Wagner (age 29) · Wirfin Obispo (age 30)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 120112vR 104

ERA4.40

FIP4.57

K%20.3%

BB%9.8%

K-BB%10.5%

Proj IP72

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 72 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF6060

CTRL4545

CMD5555

K†5050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p3793.6

Whiff%

p3122.6%

p1015.5%

xwOBA vs

p240.342

SL+1.8 (39%)

CT (44%)

SI (16%)

FB-0.8 (17%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2019	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	41	0	59	244	54	8	1	0%	1.4	16.7%	3.9%	12.8%	0.6%	2.59	2.50	—
2019	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	41	0	59	244	54	8	1	0%	1.4	22.1%	3.3%	18.9%	0.4%	2.59	1.90	—
2021	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	39	0	54	221	72	14	2	0%	1.4	27.2%	6.8%	20.4%	1.0%	3.00	2.23	—
2021	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	39	0	54	221	72	14	2	0%	1.4	32.6%	6.3%	26.2%	0.9%	3.00	1.69	—
2022	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	10	0	8	39	9	6	3	0%	0.8	23.1%	15.4%	7.7%	7.7%	7.88	7.32	-0.3
2022	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	10	0	8	39	9	6	3	0%	0.8	23.1%	15.4%	7.7%	7.7%	7.88	7.97	-0.3
2024	27	MIX MLE	4 levels	37	0	45	192	47	18	4	0%	1.2	23.8%	8.3%	15.5%	2.2%	2.82	3.37	+0.6
2024	27	MIX MLE	4 levels	37	0	45	192	47	18	4	0%	1.2	23.8%	8.3%	15.5%	2.2%	2.82	3.37	+0.6
2024	27	MIX RAW	4 levels	37	0	45	192	47	18	4	0%	1.2	24.5%	9.4%	15.1%	2.1%	2.82	3.37	+0.6
2025	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	46	1	51	220	60	21	5	2%	1.1	25.7%	9.4%	16.2%	1.1%	2.84	2.72	+1.1
2025	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	46	1	51	220	60	21	5	2%	1.1	25.7%	9.4%	16.2%	1.1%	2.84	2.72	+1.1
2025	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	46	1	51	220	60	21	5	2%	1.1	27.3%	9.5%	17.7%	2.3%	2.84	3.26	+0.8
2026	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	48	0	52	219	42	23	7	0%	1.1	17.6%	10.1%	7.5%	3.4%	4.01	4.78	-0.1
2026	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	48	0	52	219	42	23	7	0%	1.1	17.6%	10.1%	7.5%	3.4%	4.01	4.78	-0.1
2026	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	48	0	52	219	42	23	7	0%	1.1	19.2%	10.5%	8.7%	3.2%	4.01	4.57	-0.0
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			63	0	69	305	58	32	12	0%	1.1	19.0%	10.5%	8.5%	3.9%	4.70	5.07	-0.4
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	30	MLB	CHC	69	0	72	304	62	30	9	0%	1.0	20.3%	9.8%	10.5%	2.8%	4.40	4.57	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	31	MLB MLE	CHC	64	0	67	282	56	29	9	0%	1.0	19.9%	10.1%	9.8%	3.1%	4.61	4.77	-0.2
2029	32	MLB MLE	CHC	59	0	62	261	51	27	9	0%	1.0	19.4%	10.5%	8.9%	3.3%	4.83	4.99	-0.3
2028	31	MLB CTX	CHC	39	0	41	173	34	18	5	0%	1.1	19.9%	10.1%	9.8%	3.1%	4.61	4.77	-0.1
2029	32	MLB CTX	CHC	42	0	44	186	36	19	6	0%	1.0	19.4%	10.5%	8.9%	3.3%	4.83	4.99	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		144	0	154	664	128	69	24	0%	1.1	19.3%	10.4%	9.0%	3.5%	4.71	4.73	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		187	0	200	862	166	90	31	0%	1.1	19.3%	10.4%	9.0%	3.5%	4.71	4.73	-0.4
Career	—	MLE		221	1	268	1135	251	89	21	0%	1.2	22.1%	7.9%	14.2%	1.8%	3.19	3.24	-0.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		165	1	200	847	187	67	16	0%	1.2	22.1%	7.9%	14.2%	1.8%	3.19	3.24	-0.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ethan Roberts (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.57	20.3%	9.8%	2.8%	—	4.88	19.6%	9.4%	129	+0.31	—	—	—
Joe Nelson R 2006 · 3.91 FIP	31	SU	3.91	22.8%	10.4%	2.6%	.258	4.05	23.4%	12.8%	94	+0.14	3.08	139	79
Neil Wagner R 2013 · 4.02 FIP	29	SU	4.02	20.5%	7.5%	3.1%	.306	4.05	19.8%	7.5%	43	+0.03	3.11	135	79
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	79
Jim Miller R 2012 · 4.56 FIP	30	SU	4.56	20.9%	11.8%	3.1%	.243	3.95	18.8%	14.7%	74	-0.61	3.95	140	78
Scott Atchison R 2007 · 4.55 FIP	31	SU	4.55	19.1%	7.6%	3.8%	.297	4.59	16.2%	9.5%	60	+0.04	2.52	340	78
Esteban Haro R 2016 · 4.55 FIP	30	SU	4.55	17.1%	10.2%	2.9%	.338	3.83	11.6%	6.3%	75	-0.72	3.76	164	77
Dustin Molleken R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	30	SU	3.74	20.4%	11.7%	1.6%	.287	3.90	20.6%	8.4%	77	+0.16	3.38	129	77
Angel Castro R 2015 · 4.50 FIP	32	SU	4.50	15.9%	8.0%	3.1%	.268	4.28	13.6%	5.5%	231	-0.22	3.51	292	74
Erik Davis R 2017 · 4.25 FIP	30	SU	4.25	22.2%	11.1%	3.0%	.349	3.52	17.4%	8.5%	65	-0.73	3.05	227	74
Carlos Fisher R 2011 · 4.33 FIP	28	SU	4.33	15.5%	9.1%	2.5%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	2.48	245	72
Kiko Calero R 2005 · 3.51 FIP	30	SU	3.51	22.7%	7.0%	2.6%	.252	3.23	23.3%	13.9%	99	-0.28	2.27	298	72
Francisco Mendoza R 2016 · 3.81 FIP	28	SU	3.81	17.9%	7.7%	2.3%	.344	—	—	—	—	—	3.13	120	72
Jose Manuel Lopez R 2015 · 5.21 FIP	30	SU	5.21	18.6%	7.6%	4.9%	.373	3.56	18.5%	9.3%	93	-1.65	3.50	170	71
Adrian Garza R 2017 · 4.47 FIP	29	SU	4.47	16.0%	7.0%	3.4%	.351	5.18	9.7%	4.1%	113	+0.71	3.94	229	71
Jeremy Fikac R 2004 · 4.91 FIP	29	SU	4.91	19.6%	8.0%	4.5%	.276	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	136	71
Brandon Gomes R 2014 · 4.50 FIP	30	SU	4.50	17.4%	6.5%	3.7%	.230	4.81	18.1%	10.3%	82	+0.31	3.48	190	71
Marc Magliaro R 2018 · 3.94 FIP	28	SU	3.94	19.6%	7.3%	2.9%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.94	125	71
Scott Dohmann R 2008 · 4.38 FIP	30	SU	4.38	18.2%	9.1%	3.0%	.348	—	—	—	—	—	4.28	173	71
Matt Lindstrom R 2010 · 3.75 FIP	30	SU	3.75	17.6%	7.8%	2.1%	.356	2.94	17.8%	11.4%	162	-0.81	2.40	443	71
Manny Acosta R 2011 · 3.75 FIP	30	SU	3.75	22.5%	7.4%	2.9%	.321	4.49	21.3%	10.2%	47	+0.74	3.08	350	71

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.3	54	19.7%	10.2%	1.28	4.63
John Johnstone ('00)	1.4	56	19.4%	9.5%	1.23	4.01
Scott Proctor ('11)	1.7	57	19.0%	10.9%	1.52	4.78
Sam Long ('25)	1.1	42	19.5%	9.7%	1.28	4.65
Jerry Don Gleaton ('79-'92, 2 WAR*)	2.2	64	19.4%*	10.2%*	1.05*	4.44*
Bob Macdonald ('90-'96, 1 WAR*)	1.2	59	18.3%*	9.8%*	1.20*	4.32*
Daryl Patterson ('68-'74, -1 WAR*)	1.2	46	18.3%*	11.2%*	1.27*	5.03*