Reid Morgan

P Arkansas Travelers

Age 30 RHP 6'0" / 187 lbs AA

Overview

AAPROSPECT

MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2021	24	MIX3 levels	22	2	48	4.66	3.84	24.4%	5.0%	—	K 18.3% · BB 5.7% · FIP 5.20
2023	26	MIX2 levels	19	9	48	5.40	5.62	20.0%	6.0%	—	K 15.6% · BB 7.1% · FIP 6.83
2024	27	AASEA	40	0	46	4.66	4.03	21.2%	8.4%	—	K 17.2% · BB 9.2% · FIP 5.19
2027PROJ	30	MLBSEA	26	0	27	4.55	4.55	21.0%	9.2%	0.0
2028PROJ31% MLB	31	MLBSEA	8	0	8	4.64	4.72	20.9%	9.6%	-0.0

Next 2 projected WAR -0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

CompsNeil Wagner (age 29) · Jim Miller (age 30) · Joe Nelson (age 31)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 120112vR 103

ERA4.55

FIP4.55

K%21.0%

BB%9.2%

K-BB%11.8%

Proj IP27

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 27 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2019	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	9	0	17	76	14	3	4	0%	1.9	13.7%	3.6%	10.0%	7.9%	5.94	6.73	—
2019	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	9	0	17	76	14	3	4	0%	1.9	18.4%	3.9%	14.5%	5.3%	5.94	5.08	—
2021	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	22	2	48	201	49	10	8	9%	2.2	18.3%	5.7%	12.6%	5.3%	4.66	5.20	—
2021	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	22	2	48	201	49	10	8	9%	2.2	24.4%	5.0%	19.4%	4.0%	4.66	3.84	—
2023	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	9	48	215	43	13	13	47%	2.5	15.6%	7.1%	8.6%	7.6%	5.40	6.83	—
2023	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	19	9	48	215	43	13	13	47%	2.5	20.0%	6.0%	14.0%	6.0%	5.40	5.62	—
2024	27	AA MLE	Arkansas Travelers	40	0	46	203	43	17	6	0%	1.2	17.2%	9.2%	7.9%	4.3%	4.66	5.19	—
2024	27	AA MLE	Arkansas Travelers	40	0	46	203	43	17	6	0%	1.2	17.2%	9.2%	7.9%	4.3%	4.66	5.19	—
2024	27	AA RAW	Arkansas Travelers	40	0	46	203	43	17	6	0%	1.2	21.2%	8.4%	12.8%	3.0%	4.66	4.03	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	30	MLB	SEA	26	0	27	114	24	10	3	0%	1.0	21.0%	9.2%	11.8%	3.1%	4.55	4.55	0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	31	MLB MLE	SEA	24	0	25	105	22	10	3	0%	1.0	20.9%	9.6%	11.3%	3.3%	4.64	4.72	-0.0
2028	31	MLB CTX	SEA	8	0	8	34	7	3	1	0%	1.0	20.9%	9.6%	11.3%	3.3%	4.64	4.72	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		7	0	8	33	7	3	1	0%	1.1	20.9%	9.6%	11.3%	3.3%	4.64	4.34	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	180	77	26	0%	1.1	20.9%	9.6%	11.3%	3.3%	4.64	4.34	+0.5
Career	—	MLE		90	11	160	695	116	48	42	12%	1.8	16.6%	6.9%	9.7%	6.0%	5.02	5.87	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		113	14	200	871	145	60	52	12%	1.8	16.6%	6.9%	9.7%	6.0%	5.02	5.87	-0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Reid Morgan (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.55	21.0%	9.2%	3.1%	—	4.72	20.9%	11.3%	25	+0.17	—	—	—
Neil Wagner R 2013 · 4.02 FIP	29	SU	4.02	20.5%	7.5%	3.1%	.306	4.05	19.8%	7.5%	43	+0.03	3.11	135	84
Jim Miller R 2012 · 4.56 FIP	30	SU	4.56	20.9%	11.8%	3.1%	.243	3.95	18.8%	14.7%	74	-0.61	3.95	140	83
Joe Nelson R 2006 · 3.91 FIP	31	SU	3.91	22.8%	10.4%	2.6%	.258	4.05	23.4%	12.8%	94	+0.14	3.08	139	83
Dustin Molleken R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	30	SU	3.74	20.4%	11.7%	1.6%	.287	3.90	20.6%	8.4%	77	+0.16	3.38	129	81
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	81
Angel Castro R 2015 · 4.50 FIP	32	SU	4.50	15.9%	8.0%	3.1%	.268	4.28	13.6%	5.5%	231	-0.22	3.51	292	80
Scott Atchison R 2007 · 4.55 FIP	31	SU	4.55	19.1%	7.6%	3.8%	.297	4.59	16.2%	9.5%	60	+0.04	2.52	340	79
Erik Davis R 2017 · 4.25 FIP	30	SU	4.25	22.2%	11.1%	3.0%	.349	3.52	17.4%	8.5%	65	-0.73	3.05	227	78
Esteban Haro R 2016 · 4.55 FIP	30	SU	4.55	17.1%	10.2%	2.9%	.338	3.83	11.6%	6.3%	75	-0.72	3.76	164	77
Marc Magliaro R 2018 · 3.94 FIP	28	SU	3.94	19.6%	7.3%	2.9%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.94	125	76
Mike Broadway R 2017 · 4.73 FIP	30	SU	4.73	18.3%	10.2%	3.4%	.245	4.65	23.0%	12.4%	49	-0.08	1.74	195	76
Francisco Mendoza R 2016 · 3.81 FIP	28	SU	3.81	17.9%	7.7%	2.3%	.344	—	—	—	—	—	3.13	120	75
Cody Satterwhite R 2017 · 4.22 FIP	30	SU	4.22	17.0%	7.1%	3.0%	.310	—	—	—	—	—	3.69	147	75
Blake Smith R 2016 · 3.59 FIP	28	SU	3.59	22.4%	8.6%	2.4%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.17	124	74
Jose Manuel Lopez R 2015 · 5.21 FIP	30	SU	5.21	18.6%	7.6%	4.9%	.373	3.56	18.5%	9.3%	93	-1.65	3.50	170	74
Felipe Arredondo R 2017 · 4.76 FIP	30	SW	4.76	14.8%	7.3%	3.6%	.311	4.65	16.2%	9.1%	64	-0.11	3.92	337	74
Andrew Robinson R 2017 · 4.32 FIP	29	SU	4.32	23.4%	8.8%	3.8%	.245	—	—	—	—	—	3.19	160	74
Kiko Calero R 2005 · 3.51 FIP	30	SU	3.51	22.7%	7.0%	2.6%	.252	3.23	23.3%	13.9%	99	-0.28	2.27	298	74
Jeremy Fikac R 2004 · 4.91 FIP	29	SU	4.91	19.6%	8.0%	4.5%	.276	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	136	74
Yoanner Negrin R 2015 · 3.79 FIP	31	SW	3.79	15.1%	7.5%	1.9%	.256	3.29	15.0%	8.5%	270	-0.50	3.15	485	74

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	26	21.0%	9.4%	1.22	4.59
Ian Krol ('21)	1.0	42	21.2%	8.8%	1.25	4.49
Sam Long ('25)	1.1	42	19.5%	9.7%	1.28	4.65
Yency Almonte ('24)	1.1	45	22.5%	9.9%	1.13	4.44
Kevin Hickey ('81-'91, 0 WAR*)	1.2	47	17.7%*	10.2%*	1.10*	4.27*
Bob Macdonald ('90-'96, 1 WAR*)	1.2	59	18.3%*	9.8%*	1.20*	4.32*
Tom Dukes ('67-'72, -2 WAR*)	1.1	43	22.7%*	8.7%*	1.16*	5.37*