Joey Gerber

P Syracuse Mets

Age 30 RHP 6'4" / 212 lbs AAA peak 0.2 · 2027

Overview

AAARPROOKIE

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	27	MIX4 levels	26	1	33	2.43	3.22	28.2%	10.6%	—	K 21.5% · BB 11.1% · FIP 4.10
2025	28	MIX3 levels	37	10	49	5.73	4.27	27.8%	7.1%	0.2	K 24.1% · BB 7.0% · FIP 3.99
2026	29	MIX3 levels	31	1	36	7.00	3.85	21.6%	9.3%	0.3	K 18.6% · BB 7.9% · FIP 3.98
2027PROJ	30	MLBNYM	55	0	58	4.14	4.14	22.3%	6.9%	0.3
2028PROJ37% MLB	31	MLBNYM	19	0	20	4.29	4.39	21.7%	7.5%	0.0
2029PROJ55% MLB	32	MLBNYM	26	0	27	4.49	4.64	21.0%	8.1%	-0.0

Last 3 seasons WAR 0.5 · Next 3 projected WAR 0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff55Control55Command60

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 96%

CompsNeil Wagner (age 29) · Joe Nelson (age 31) · Scott Atchison (age 31)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 112104vR 96

ERA4.14

FIP4.14

K%22.3%

BB%6.9%

K-BB%15.4%

Proj IP58

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 58 IP

Grades · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5555

CTRL5555

CMD6060

K†5555

FB (54%)

CT (42%)

CH (2%)

SL (2%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2018	21	A MLE	Clinton LumberKings	9	0	12	47	22	5	0	0%	1.3	46.8%	10.6%	36.2%	0.0%	2.31	0.49	—
2018	21	A RAW	Clinton LumberKings	9	0	12	47	22	5	0	0%	1.3	46.8%	10.6%	36.2%	0.0%	2.31	0.61	—
2019	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	44	0	49	204	69	19	2	0%	1.1	26.6%	10.5%	16.1%	1.5%	2.59	3.01	—
2019	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	44	0	49	204	69	19	2	0%	1.1	33.8%	9.3%	24.5%	1.0%	2.59	1.97	—
2020	23	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	17	0	16	62	6	5	1	0%	0.9	9.7%	8.1%	1.6%	1.7%	4.02	4.21	+0.1
2020	23	MLB RAW	Seattle Mariners	17	0	16	62	6	5	1	0%	0.9	9.7%	8.1%	1.6%	1.6%	4.02	4.12	+0.1
2022	25	ROK MLE	ACL Mariners	1	0	1	5	0	0	0	0%	1.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.00	3.10	—
2022	25	ROK RAW	ACL Mariners	1	0	1	5	0	0	0	0%	1.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.00	3.10	—
2024	27	MIX MLE	4 levels	26	1	33	142	40	15	3	4%	1.3	21.5%	11.1%	10.4%	2.6%	2.43	4.10	—
2024	27	MIX MLE	4 levels	26	1	33	142	40	15	3	4%	1.3	21.5%	11.1%	10.4%	2.6%	2.43	4.10	—
2024	27	MIX RAW	4 levels	26	1	33	142	40	15	3	4%	1.3	28.2%	10.6%	17.6%	2.1%	2.43	3.22	—
2025	28	MIX MLE	3 levels	37	10	49	212	59	15	10	27%	1.3	24.1%	7.0%	17.1%	3.7%	5.73	3.99	+0.3
2025	28	MIX MLE	3 levels	37	10	49	212	59	15	10	27%	1.3	24.1%	7.0%	17.1%	3.7%	5.73	3.99	+0.3
2025	28	MIX RAW	3 levels	37	10	49	212	59	15	10	27%	1.3	27.8%	7.1%	20.8%	4.7%	5.73	4.27	+0.2
2026	29	MIX MLE	3 levels	31	1	36	162	35	15	4	3%	1.2	18.6%	7.9%	10.7%	2.6%	7.00	3.98	+0.2
2026	29	MIX MLE	3 levels	31	1	36	162	35	15	4	3%	1.2	18.6%	7.9%	10.7%	2.6%	7.00	3.98	+0.2
2026	29	MIX RAW	3 levels	31	1	36	162	35	15	4	3%	1.2	21.6%	9.3%	12.3%	2.5%	7.00	3.85	+0.3
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			26	0	28	111	18	9	3	0%	1.1	16.2%	8.1%	8.1%	2.7%	3.81	4.16	+0.1
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	30	MLB	NYM	55	0	58	245	55	17	7	0%	1.1	22.3%	6.9%	15.4%	3.0%	4.14	4.14	+0.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	31	MLB MLE	NYM	51	0	54	227	49	17	7	0%	1.1	21.7%	7.5%	14.2%	3.2%	4.29	4.39	+0.1
2029	32	MLB MLE	NYM	47	0	50	210	44	17	7	0%	1.1	21.0%	8.1%	13.0%	3.5%	4.49	4.64	-0.1
2028	31	MLB CTX	NYM	19	0	20	84	18	6	3	0%	1.1	21.7%	7.5%	14.2%	3.2%	4.29	4.39	+0.0
2029	32	MLB CTX	NYM	26	0	27	114	24	9	4	0%	1.0	21.0%	8.1%	13.0%	3.5%	4.49	4.64	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		71	0	76	310	60	25	10	0%	1.1	19.5%	7.9%	11.5%	3.1%	4.18	4.18	+0.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		188	0	200	822	159	66	26	0%	1.1	19.5%	7.9%	11.5%	3.1%	4.18	4.18	+0.9
Career	—	MLE		165	12	195	834	194	75	20	7%	1.2	23.3%	9.0%	14.3%	2.4%	4.25	3.58	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		169	12	200	855	199	77	20	7%	1.2	23.3%	9.0%	14.3%	2.4%	4.25	3.58	+0.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Joey Gerber (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.14	22.3%	6.9%	3.0%	—	4.51	21.3%	13.6%	104	+0.37	—	—	—
Neil Wagner R 2013 · 4.02 FIP	29	SU	4.02	20.5%	7.5%	3.1%	.306	4.05	19.8%	7.5%	43	+0.03	3.11	135	86
Joe Nelson R 2006 · 3.91 FIP	31	SU	3.91	22.8%	10.4%	2.6%	.258	4.05	23.4%	12.8%	94	+0.14	3.08	139	80
Scott Atchison R 2007 · 4.55 FIP	31	SU	4.55	19.1%	7.6%	3.8%	.297	4.59	16.2%	9.5%	60	+0.04	2.52	340	79
Mark Serrano R 2016 · 3.16 FIP	30	SU	3.16	17.7%	6.5%	1.3%	.290	4.36	21.1%	14.0%	88	+1.20	3.16	120	79
Adrian Ramirez R 2019 · 4.29 FIP	31	SU	4.29	21.7%	6.3%	4.0%	.327	—	—	—	—	—	3.04	137	79
Tony Barnette R 2016 · 3.05 FIP	32	SU	3.05	19.9%	6.1%	1.6%	.281	3.26	23.4%	17.0%	84	+0.21	2.61	144	78
Kiko Calero R 2005 · 3.51 FIP	30	SU	3.51	22.7%	7.0%	2.6%	.252	3.23	23.3%	13.9%	99	-0.28	2.27	298	78
Mike Fyhrie R 2000 · 3.08 FIP	30	SU	3.08	19.5%	5.0%	1.8%	.309	3.87	13.7%	4.4%	69	+0.79	3.08	173	78
Andrew Robinson R 2017 · 4.32 FIP	29	SU	4.32	23.4%	8.8%	3.8%	.245	—	—	—	—	—	3.19	160	75
Jose Manuel Lopez R 2015 · 5.21 FIP	30	SU	5.21	18.6%	7.6%	4.9%	.373	3.56	18.5%	9.3%	93	-1.65	3.50	170	75
Manny Acosta R 2011 · 3.75 FIP	30	SU	3.75	22.5%	7.4%	2.9%	.321	4.49	21.3%	10.2%	47	+0.74	3.08	350	75
Marc Magliaro R 2018 · 3.94 FIP	28	SU	3.94	19.6%	7.3%	2.9%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.94	125	74
Gerardo Sanchez R 2019 · 3.58 FIP	30	SU	3.58	20.5%	5.4%	2.8%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	2.65	137	74
Kaleb Fleck R 2018 · 3.47 FIP	29	SU	3.47	24.6%	5.9%	3.1%	.346	—	—	—	—	—	2.68	177	73
Jose De La Torre R 2016 · 3.12 FIP	30	SU	3.12	22.0%	8.0%	1.6%	.248	2.64	20.5%	14.7%	19	-0.48	2.64	141	73
Jeremy Fikac R 2004 · 4.91 FIP	29	SU	4.91	19.6%	8.0%	4.5%	.276	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	136	73
Jim Miller R 2012 · 4.56 FIP	30	SU	4.56	20.9%	11.8%	3.1%	.243	3.95	18.8%	14.7%	74	-0.61	3.95	140	73
Tyler Sturdevant R 2016 · 3.44 FIP	30	SU	3.44	23.8%	6.5%	2.8%	.323	4.48	13.5%	6.8%	60	+1.04	3.44	149	73
Rob Wooten R 2015 · 4.86 FIP	30	SU	4.86	19.3%	5.5%	4.9%	.299	3.87	17.7%	14.4%	111	-0.99	2.48	253	72
Jhan Mariñez R 2018 · 4.09 FIP	29	SU	4.09	21.2%	7.9%	3.2%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	3.16	253	72

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	63	20.9%	7.6%	1.23	4.23
Blas Minor ('97)	1.1	75	19.2%	7.3%	1.16	4.40
Michael Tonkin ('25)	1.6	55	23.2%	8.1%	1.28	4.23
Juan Gutierrez ('14)	1.4	57	19.4%	8.4%	1.04	4.49
Gary Wayne ('89-'94, 2 WAR*)	1.2	62	19.9%*	9.4%*	1.05*	3.88*
Dave Baldwin ('66-'73, 2 WAR*)	1.1	56	22.2%*	9.2%*	0.96*	3.97*
Barney Schultz ('55-'65, 2 WAR*)	1.7	58	24.6%*	8.3%*	1.28*	3.93*