Randy Dobnak

P Omaha Storm Chasers

Age 32 RHP 6'1" / 230 lbs AAA Svc 8.0 · Ctrl thru 2027 peak 1.3 · 2027

Overview

AAASP40-MANExt / FA-dealFA 2028

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	29	MIX2 levels	33	24	143	4.34	3.90	22.2%	10.5%	1.7	K 19.5% · BB 9.6% · FIP 4.05
2025	30	MIX2 levels	27	18	104	5.62	4.88	16.7%	11.3%	0.0	K 14.8% · BB 10.2% · FIP 5.16
2026	31	MIX2 levels	30	28	155	3.95	3.91	14.6%	7.6%	1.8	K 13.6% · BB 7.2% · FIP 4.03
2027PROJ	32	MLBKC	29	29	175	4.51	4.69	14.7%	7.7%	0.4
2028PROJ61% MLB	33	MLBKC	16	16	98	4.67	4.85	13.8%	8.2%	-0.1
2029PROJ56% MLB	34	MLBKC	14	14	82	4.95	5.14	12.9%	8.6%	-0.3

Last 3 seasons WAR 3.6 · Next 3 projected WAR 0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2027Service8.000First FA2028

2027Ext / FA-deal$12M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

xwOBA vs29

FB Velo18

Whiff%10

K%10

CompsZack Segovia (age 32) · Jesus Adrian Castillo (age 32) · Andres Ivan Meza (age 32)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 122114vR 106

ERA4.51

FIP4.69

K%14.7%

BB%7.7%

K-BB%7.0%

Proj IP175

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 175 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—50

STUF5050

CTRL6060

CMD5555

K†3030

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1892.2

Whiff%

p1019.1%

p1015.3%

xwOBA vs

p290.336

FB+2.7 (48%)

CH+1.1 (24%)

SI (35%)

SL-2.1 (28%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2019

Service 8.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2027

First FA Year 2028

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Ext / FA-deal	$12M	+0.2	$0.7M	-$11M
Totals		$12M		$0.7M	-$11M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2017	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	6	4	33	130	23	7	3	67%	5.6	14.5%	7.3%	7.2%	4.1%	2.43	5.03	—
2017	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	6	4	33	130	23	7	3	67%	5.6	17.7%	5.4%	12.3%	2.3%	2.43	3.52	—
2018	23	A MLE	Cedar Rapids Kernels	24	20	129	539	84	25	6	83%	5.4	11.5%	5.5%	6.1%	1.2%	3.14	3.50	—
2018	23	A RAW	Cedar Rapids Kernels	24	20	129	539	84	25	6	83%	5.4	15.6%	4.6%	10.9%	1.1%	3.14	2.98	—
2019	24	MIX MLE	4 levels	33	26	163	648	132	33	7	79%	4.9	17.5%	5.4%	12.0%	1.3%	1.98	3.01	+3.9
2019	24	MIX RAW	4 levels	33	26	163	648	132	33	7	79%	4.9	20.4%	5.1%	15.3%	1.1%	1.98	2.65	+4.7
2020	25	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	10	10	47	200	27	13	3	100%	4.7	13.5%	6.5%	7.0%	1.5%	4.05	3.60	+0.7
2020	25	MLB RAW	Minnesota Twins	10	10	47	200	27	13	3	100%	4.7	13.5%	6.5%	7.0%	1.5%	4.05	3.61	+0.7
2021	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	19	11	72	312	45	22	11	58%	3.8	12.7%	7.4%	5.3%	3.6%	6.15	4.95	-0.0
2021	26	MIX RAW	3 levels	19	11	72	312	45	22	11	58%	3.8	14.4%	7.1%	7.4%	3.5%	6.15	4.76	+0.1
2022	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	11	6	25	114	23	16	3	55%	2.3	17.8%	17.9%	-0.1%	4.0%	4.32	6.05	—
2022	27	MIX RAW	3 levels	11	6	25	114	23	16	3	55%	2.3	20.2%	14.0%	6.1%	2.6%	4.32	4.74	—
2023	28	AAA MLE	St. Paul Saints	31	26	126	569	115	61	12	84%	4.1	17.4%	9.6%	7.7%	2.3%	5.13	4.12	—
2023	28	AAA RAW	St. Paul Saints	31	26	126	569	115	61	12	84%	4.1	20.2%	10.7%	9.5%	2.1%	5.13	3.96	—
2024	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	24	143	636	141	67	15	73%	4.3	19.5%	9.6%	9.9%	2.5%	4.34	4.05	+1.5
2024	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	24	143	636	141	67	15	73%	4.3	19.5%	9.6%	9.9%	2.5%	4.34	4.05	+1.5
2024	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	33	24	143	636	141	67	15	73%	4.3	22.2%	10.5%	11.6%	2.4%	4.34	3.90	+1.7
2025	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	18	104	467	78	53	14	67%	3.9	14.8%	10.2%	4.5%	3.7%	5.62	5.16	-0.3
2025	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	18	104	467	78	53	14	67%	3.9	14.8%	10.2%	4.5%	3.7%	5.62	5.16	-0.3
2025	30	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	18	104	467	78	53	14	67%	3.9	16.7%	11.3%	5.4%	3.0%	5.62	4.88	+0.0
2026	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	28	155	672	98	51	13	93%	5.2	13.6%	7.2%	6.3%	2.1%	3.95	4.03	+1.6
2026	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	28	155	672	98	51	13	93%	5.2	13.6%	7.2%	6.3%	2.1%	3.95	4.03	+1.6
2026	31	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	28	155	672	98	51	13	93%	5.2	14.6%	7.6%	7.0%	1.9%	3.95	3.91	+1.8
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			54	34	215	931	134	62	24	63%	4.0	14.4%	6.7%	7.7%	2.6%	4.40	4.17	+1.9
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	32	MLB	KC	29	29	175	739	109	57	20	100%	6.0	14.7%	7.7%	7.0%	2.7%	4.51	4.69	+0.4
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	33	MLB MLE	KC	27	27	161	678	94	55	20	100%	5.9	13.8%	8.2%	5.7%	3.0%	4.79	4.97	-0.1
2029	34	MLB MLE	KC	24	24	146	617	80	53	20	100%	6.1	12.9%	8.6%	4.3%	3.3%	5.08	5.27	-0.6
2028	33	MLB CTX	KC	16	16	98	414	57	34	11	100%	6.1	13.8%	8.2%	5.7%	2.7%	4.67	4.85	-0.1
2029	34	MLB CTX	KC	14	14	82	346	45	30	10	100%	5.9	12.9%	8.6%	4.3%	3.0%	4.95	5.14	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		84	64	395	1690	236	126	46	76%	4.7	14.0%	7.4%	6.5%	2.7%	4.58	4.35	+2.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		43	32	200	856	120	64	23	76%	4.7	14.0%	7.4%	6.5%	2.7%	4.58	4.35	+1.3
Career	—	MLE		224	173	997	4287	664	343	99	77%	4.5	15.5%	8.0%	7.5%	2.3%	4.02	4.08	+1.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		45	35	200	860	133	69	20	77%	4.5	15.5%	8.0%	7.5%	2.3%	4.02	4.08	+0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Randy Dobnak (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.69	14.7%	7.7%	2.7%	—	5.11	13.4%	5.0%	307	+0.42	—	—	—
Zack Segovia R 2015 · 4.78 FIP	32	SP	4.78	15.0%	8.3%	3.4%	.314	3.33	20.2%	14.3%	39	-1.45	3.33	144	82
Jesus Adrian Castillo R 2016 · 3.88 FIP	32	SP	3.88	12.8%	6.0%	2.0%	.245	4.27	13.6%	7.2%	58	+0.39	2.23	173	79
Andres Ivan Meza R 2019 · 4.33 FIP	32	SP	4.33	11.7%	7.7%	2.3%	.349	—	—	—	—	—	4.14	275	77
Osvaldo Fernandez R 2001 · 4.53 FIP	32	SP-	4.53	9.6%	8.2%	2.2%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	4.25	387	76
Elian Leyva R 2019 · 4.30 FIP	30	SP-	4.30	17.0%	8.5%	2.9%	.323	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	158	75
Juan Delgadillo R 2015 · 4.54 FIP	32	SP	4.54	15.5%	7.2%	3.3%	.316	4.47	10.9%	4.7%	39	-0.07	4.47	143	75
Tyler Herron R 2017 · 4.02 FIP	30	SP	4.02	16.4%	8.7%	2.2%	.377	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	117	74
Jonathan Castellanos R 2015 · 3.63 FIP	33	SP	3.63	12.2%	6.5%	1.3%	.313	4.15	11.8%	3.5%	216	+0.52	3.40	394	73
Miguel Ruiz R 2017 · 5.60 FIP	31	SP	5.60	10.6%	11.0%	3.6%	.279	—	—	—	—	—	5.60	117	73
David Fletcher R 2024 · 5.67 FIP	30	SP-	5.67	7.5%	10.3%	3.5%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	5.67	100	73
Sergio Valenzuela R 2017 · 5.66 FIP	32	SP	5.66	10.6%	6.5%	4.8%	.355	—	—	—	—	—	3.66	244	71
Danny Gutierrez R 2017 · 4.11 FIP	30	SP	4.11	15.1%	6.1%	2.8%	.362	—	—	—	—	—	3.34	239	69
Patrick Johnson R 2019 · 4.14 FIP	30	SP	4.14	15.7%	9.3%	2.2%	.344	—	—	—	—	—	3.82	248	69
Michael Nix R 2015 · 3.82 FIP	32	SP	3.82	12.4%	8.9%	1.2%	.310	4.60	11.9%	0.3%	115	+0.78	3.82	234	69
Cesar Carrillo R 2016 · 4.28 FIP	32	SP	4.28	12.8%	9.3%	2.0%	.301	5.76	11.4%	1.2%	103	+1.48	4.14	336	69
Hector Galvan R 2019 · 4.84 FIP	31	SP-	4.84	14.3%	12.2%	2.6%	.357	—	—	—	—	—	3.59	406	69
Kenshin Kawakami R 2009 · 3.97 FIP	34	SP-	3.97	15.7%	7.6%	2.2%	.277	4.06	15.1%	9.5%	87	+0.09	3.97	244	69
Leo Medrano R 2015 · 3.76 FIP	32	SP	3.76	14.2%	3.9%	2.5%	.354	4.34	11.0%	3.7%	113	+0.58	3.76	222	68
Salvador Valdez R 2015 · 3.66 FIP	32	SP	3.66	12.2%	5.1%	1.7%	.353	3.76	10.8%	4.1%	172	+0.10	3.60	326	68
Alex Caldera R 2016 · 4.54 FIP	30	SP	4.54	11.9%	11.1%	1.9%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	4.54	120	68

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,853 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 1,356 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.5	100	14.0%	7.7%	1.10	4.66
Osvaldo Fernandez ('01)	1.9	97	12.2%	8.0%	1.00	4.91
Duane Pillette ('49-'56, 6 WAR*)	4.5	113	14.5%*	8.3%*	1.03*	4.56*
Tony Freitas ('32-'36, 3 WAR*)	2.6	130	13.8%*	6.6%*	1.09*	4.55*
Walt Dickson ('10-'15, 2 WAR*)	3.5	140	13.6%*	8.3%*	1.08*	4.71*
Todd Ritchie ('04)	4.2	119	14.1%	7.2%	1.12	4.71
Mike Thurman ('02)	2.5	99	13.5%	8.7%	1.08	5.05