Matt Seelinger

P Syracuse Mets

Age 32 RHP 6'3" / 190 lbs AAA

Overview

AAARPROOKIE

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	29	AADET	20	0	27	1.65	2.15	42.2%	8.3%	—	K 34.2% · BB 9.1% · FIP 3.29
2025	30	MIX2 levels	47	0	66	2.74	3.15	28.4%	9.5%	—	K 24.1% · BB 8.8% · FIP 3.73
2026	31	MIX2 levels	43	1	63	5.14	5.13	27.7%	13.5%	-0.4	K 24.6% · BB 11.5% · FIP 5.28
2027PROJ	32	MLBNYM	61	0	64	4.61	4.61	25.3%	10.2%	-0.0
2028PROJ37% MLB	33	MLBNYM	21	0	22	4.73	4.83	24.6%	10.5%	-0.1
2029PROJ32% MLB	34	MLBNYM	16	0	17	4.92	5.07	24.0%	10.9%	-0.1

Last 3 seasons WAR -0.4 · Next 3 projected WAR -0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff55Control45Command55

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 98%

CompsSergio Santos (age 32) · Joe Nelson (age 31) · Arcenio Leon (age 32)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 121113vR 105

ERA4.61

FIP4.61

K%25.3%

BB%10.2%

K-BB%15.1%

Proj IP64

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 64 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5555

CTRL4545

CMD5555

K†6060

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2018	23	A MLE	Bowling Green Hot Rods	36	0	45	192	67	15	7	0%	1.2	25.8%	9.2%	16.6%	4.6%	2.80	4.60	—
2018	23	A RAW	Bowling Green Hot Rods	36	0	45	192	67	15	7	0%	1.2	34.9%	7.8%	27.1%	3.6%	2.80	3.14	—
2019	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	0	51	225	76	20	4	0%	1.7	27.9%	10.3%	17.6%	2.0%	5.86	3.13	—
2019	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	0	51	225	76	20	4	0%	1.7	33.8%	8.9%	24.9%	1.8%	5.86	2.31	—
2021	26	AA MLE	Richmond Flying Squirrels	36	0	41	180	64	30	6	0%	1.1	28.8%	18.3%	10.5%	4.3%	3.07	5.37	—
2021	26	AA RAW	Richmond Flying Squirrels	36	0	41	180	64	30	6	0%	1.1	35.6%	16.7%	18.9%	3.3%	3.07	4.08	—
2022	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	47	2	64	280	79	36	6	4%	1.4	22.3%	14.2%	8.2%	2.5%	3.38	4.39	—
2022	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	47	2	64	280	79	36	6	4%	1.4	28.2%	12.9%	15.4%	2.1%	3.38	3.54	—
2023	28	AA MLE	Reading Fightin Phils	21	0	27	109	28	12	6	0%	1.3	20.8%	12.1%	8.7%	6.3%	3.71	6.33	—
2023	28	AA RAW	Reading Fightin Phils	21	0	27	109	28	12	6	0%	1.3	25.7%	11.0%	14.7%	5.5%	3.71	5.28	—
2024	29	AA MLE	Erie SeaWolves	20	0	27	109	46	9	3	0%	1.4	34.2%	9.1%	25.1%	3.5%	1.65	3.29	—
2024	29	AA MLE	Erie SeaWolves	20	0	27	109	46	9	3	0%	1.4	34.2%	9.1%	25.1%	3.5%	1.65	3.29	—
2024	29	AA RAW	Erie SeaWolves	20	0	27	109	46	9	3	0%	1.4	42.2%	8.3%	33.9%	2.8%	1.65	2.15	—
2025	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	47	0	66	264	75	25	6	0%	1.4	24.1%	8.8%	15.3%	2.8%	2.74	3.73	—
2025	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	47	0	66	264	75	25	6	0%	1.4	24.1%	8.8%	15.3%	2.8%	2.74	3.73	—
2025	30	MIX RAW	2 levels	47	0	66	264	75	25	6	0%	1.4	28.4%	9.5%	18.9%	2.3%	2.74	3.15	—
2026	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	43	1	63	274	76	37	13	2%	1.5	24.6%	11.5%	13.1%	5.1%	5.14	5.28	-0.5
2026	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	43	1	63	274	76	37	13	2%	1.5	24.6%	11.5%	13.1%	5.1%	5.14	5.28	-0.5
2026	31	MIX RAW	2 levels	43	1	63	274	76	37	13	2%	1.5	27.7%	13.5%	14.2%	4.7%	5.14	5.13	-0.4
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			1	0	2	15	2	4	1	0%	2.0	13.3%	26.7%	-13.3%	6.7%	31.50	13.60	-0.2
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	32	MLB	NYM	61	0	64	270	68	28	10	0%	1.0	25.3%	10.2%	15.1%	3.6%	4.61	4.61	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	33	MLB MLE	NYM	56	0	59	248	61	26	9	0%	1.0	24.6%	10.5%	14.1%	3.8%	4.73	4.83	-0.2
2029	34	MLB MLE	NYM	51	0	53	225	54	25	9	0%	1.0	24.0%	10.9%	13.1%	4.1%	4.92	5.07	-0.3
2028	33	MLB CTX	NYM	21	0	22	93	23	10	4	0%	1.0	24.6%	10.5%	14.1%	3.8%	4.73	4.83	-0.1
2029	34	MLB CTX	NYM	16	0	17	72	17	8	3	0%	1.1	24.0%	10.9%	13.1%	4.1%	4.92	5.07	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		38	0	41	179	42	22	7	0%	1.1	23.4%	12.0%	11.4%	4.2%	6.12	4.93	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		186	0	200	877	206	108	34	0%	1.1	23.4%	12.0%	11.4%	4.2%	6.12	4.93	-0.9
Career	—	MLE		280	3	383	1633	418	191	60	1%	1.4	25.6%	11.7%	13.9%	3.7%	3.69	4.45	-0.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		146	2	200	852	218	100	31	1%	1.4	25.6%	11.7%	13.9%	3.7%	3.69	4.45	-1.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Matt Seelinger (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.61	25.3%	10.2%	3.6%	—	4.94	24.3%	13.6%	112	+0.33	—	—	—
Sergio Santos R 2015 · 4.17 FIP	32	SU	4.17	24.7%	8.2%	3.9%	.283	—	—	—	—	—	1.36	178	83
Joe Nelson R 2006 · 3.91 FIP	31	SU	3.91	22.8%	10.4%	2.6%	.258	4.05	23.4%	12.8%	94	+0.14	3.08	139	81
Arcenio Leon R 2019 · 3.61 FIP	32	SU	3.61	21.4%	8.1%	2.4%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	3.00	115	81
Mike Broadway R 2018 · 4.65 FIP	31	SU	4.65	23.0%	10.6%	3.9%	.282	—	—	—	—	—	1.74	195	79
Hirokazu Sawamura R 2021 · 4.48 FIP	33	SU	4.48	26.2%	11.2%	4.0%	.263	4.02	18.1%	6.8%	51	-0.46	4.02	104	76
Jon Edwards R 2019 · 4.43 FIP	31	SU	4.43	25.1%	11.6%	3.6%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	2.40	132	75
Jose Manuel Lopez R 2017 · 3.61 FIP	32	SU	3.61	20.4%	10.0%	1.8%	.331	6.14	17.9%	3.7%	41	+2.53	3.50	170	74
Scott Atchison R 2007 · 4.55 FIP	31	SU	4.55	19.1%	7.6%	3.8%	.297	4.59	16.2%	9.5%	60	+0.04	2.52	340	74
Adrian Ramirez R 2019 · 4.29 FIP	31	SU	4.29	21.7%	6.3%	4.0%	.327	—	—	—	—	—	3.04	137	73
Kazuhiro Sasaki R 2000 · 3.93 FIP	32	SU	3.93	29.4%	9.8%	3.8%	.212	2.88	24.9%	19.3%	161	-1.05	2.76	223	73
Mark Serrano R 2017 · 3.56 FIP	31	SU	3.56	21.9%	6.4%	2.7%	.240	5.25	20.2%	12.3%	42	+1.69	3.16	120	73
Dale Thayer R 2013 · 3.62 FIP	32	SU	3.62	23.7%	7.4%	2.9%	.287	3.85	20.6%	15.0%	103	+0.23	2.75	239	72
Jeff Fulchino R 2011 · 4.44 FIP	31	SU	4.44	20.4%	11.1%	3.0%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	3.36	178	72
James Hoyt R 2019 · 3.45 FIP	32	SU	3.45	22.2%	9.9%	1.8%	.355	5.63	22.1%	10.4%	50	+2.18	1.61	312	71
Leonel Campos R 2017 · 3.70 FIP	30	SU	3.70	25.7%	11.8%	2.3%	.241	—	—	—	—	—	2.62	168	71
Neil Wagner R 2016 · 4.05 FIP	32	SU	4.05	19.8%	12.3%	1.9%	.360	3.11	20.7%	12.1%	54	-0.94	3.11	135	70
Dan Winkler R 2022 · 3.87 FIP	32	SU	3.87	24.4%	14.0%	1.9%	.281	—	—	—	—	—	2.40	231	70
Fernando Nieve R 2015 · 4.27 FIP	33	SU	4.27	22.0%	10.5%	3.1%	.290	2.43	26.9%	22.6%	89	-1.84	1.96	287	69
Jumbo Diaz R 2016 · 3.85 FIP	32	SU	3.85	22.3%	9.2%	2.7%	.247	3.28	23.0%	13.8%	141	-0.57	2.80	319	69
Jason Bulger R 2010 · 4.36 FIP	31	SU	4.36	22.5%	13.5%	2.6%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	3.78	106	68

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	59	24.5%	10.8%	1.50	5.04
José Ruiz ('25)	1.4	57	22.3%	10.4%	1.44	4.62
Robert Stephenson ('25)	1.9	62	25.9%	10.1%	1.54	4.59
J.J. Hoover ('18)	1.4	57	23.8%	11.4%	1.42	4.17
Phil Hennigan ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.4	70	20.9%*	10.4%*	1.50*	4.95*
Dave Beard ('80-'89, -3 WAR*)	1.4	92	23.1%*	10.3%*	1.50*	5.13*
Mac Scarce ('72-'78, 1 WAR*)	1.0	52	25.9%*	12.4%*	1.27*	4.17*