Ron Marinaccio

P Cincinnati Reds

Age 32 RHP 6'2" / 205 lbs MLB

Overview

MLBRP

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	29	MIX2 levels	51	63	2.71	3.39	25.6%	9.3%	0.9	K 23.4% · BB 8.8% · FIP 3.48
2025	30	MIX2 levels	48	57	4.26	3.75	24.8%	9.4%	0.5	K 20.7% · BB 8.5% · FIP 4.46
2026	31	MIX2 levels	42	59	6.44	5.47	18.4%	10.2%	-0.6	K 18.5% · BB 10.4% · FIP 5.01
2027PROJ	32	MLBCIN	70	73	4.85	4.90	20.0%	9.8%	-0.3
2028PROJ95% MLB	33	MLBCIN	61	64	5.05	5.18	19.2%	10.3%	-0.5
2029PROJ90% MLB	34	MLBCIN	52	55	5.31	5.49	18.3%	10.8%	-0.6

Last 3 seasons WAR 0.8 · Next 3 projected WAR -1.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

Whiff%50

FB Velo38

K%25

xwOBA vs20

CompsJoe Nelson (age 31) · Angel Castro (age 32) · Brian Sanches (age 32)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 127119vR 111

ERA4.85

FIP4.90

K%20.0%

BB%9.8%

K-BB%10.2%

Proj IP73

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 73 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5555

CTRL4040

CMD5555

K†5050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p3893.7

Whiff%

p5025.3%

p2518.5%

xwOBA vs

p200.347

SL+1.5 (10%)

CT+0.9 (20%)

CH+0.5 (27%)

FB-1.3 (43%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2017	22	ROK MLE	GCL Yankees East	13	0	16	65	15	4	0	0%	1.2	15.7%	7.7%	8.0%	0.0%	2.30	2.75	—
2017	22	ROK RAW	GCL Yankees East	13	0	16	65	15	4	0	0%	1.2	23.1%	6.2%	16.9%	0.0%	2.30	1.95	—
2018	23	ROK MLE	Pulaski Yankees	10	0	20	83	33	3	1	0%	2.0	27.0%	4.5%	22.5%	1.7%	1.77	2.32	—
2018	23	ROK RAW	Pulaski Yankees	10	0	20	83	33	3	1	0%	2.0	39.8%	3.6%	36.1%	1.2%	1.77	0.94	—
2019	24	A MLE	Charleston RiverDogs	18	0	32	140	40	18	0	0%	1.8	21.1%	15.2%	6.0%	0.0%	4.18	3.24	—
2019	24	A RAW	Charleston RiverDogs	18	0	32	140	40	18	0	0%	1.8	28.6%	12.9%	15.7%	0.0%	4.18	2.30	—
2021	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	40	0	66	263	105	26	4	0%	1.7	33.4%	10.7%	22.7%	1.6%	2.04	2.51	—
2021	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	40	0	66	263	105	26	4	0%	1.7	39.9%	9.9%	30.0%	1.5%	2.04	1.89	—
2022	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	49	0	55	228	80	28	5	0%	1.1	30.9%	13.3%	17.7%	1.0%	2.14	2.74	+1.2
2022	27	MIX RAW	3 levels	49	0	55	228	80	28	5	0%	1.1	35.1%	12.3%	22.8%	2.2%	2.14	2.90	+1.1
2023	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	59	0	63	282	69	45	8	0%	1.1	23.8%	15.3%	8.5%	2.8%	5.17	4.54	+0.0
2023	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	59	0	63	282	69	45	8	0%	1.1	24.5%	16.0%	8.5%	2.8%	5.17	4.71	-0.1
2024	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	51	0	63	258	66	24	6	0%	1.2	23.4%	8.8%	14.6%	2.3%	2.71	3.48	+0.8
2024	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	51	0	63	258	66	24	6	0%	1.2	23.4%	8.8%	14.6%	2.3%	2.71	3.48	+0.8
2024	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	51	0	63	258	66	24	6	0%	1.2	25.6%	9.3%	16.3%	2.3%	2.71	3.39	+0.9
2025	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	48	0	57	254	63	24	7	0%	1.2	20.7%	8.5%	12.2%	3.7%	4.26	4.46	+0.1
2025	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	48	0	57	254	63	24	7	0%	1.2	20.7%	8.5%	12.2%	3.7%	4.26	4.46	+0.1
2025	30	MIX RAW	2 levels	48	0	57	254	63	24	7	0%	1.2	24.8%	9.4%	15.4%	2.8%	4.26	3.75	+0.5
2026	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	42	0	59	266	49	27	12	0%	1.4	18.5%	10.4%	8.1%	3.9%	6.44	5.01	-0.3
2026	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	42	0	59	266	49	27	12	0%	1.4	18.5%	10.4%	8.1%	3.9%	6.44	5.01	-0.3
2026	31	MIX RAW	2 levels	42	0	59	266	49	27	12	0%	1.4	18.4%	10.2%	8.3%	4.5%	6.44	5.47	-0.6
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			149	0	183	787	197	92	23	0%	1.2	25.0%	11.7%	13.3%	2.9%	3.98	4.09	+1.0
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	32	MLB	CIN	70	0	73	308	62	30	10	0%	1.0	20.0%	9.8%	10.2%	3.4%	4.85	4.90	-0.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	33	MLB MLE	CIN	64	0	67	283	54	29	10	0%	1.0	19.2%	10.3%	8.9%	3.7%	5.05	5.18	-0.5
2029	34	MLB MLE	CIN	58	0	61	258	47	28	10	0%	1.1	18.3%	10.8%	7.5%	4.0%	5.31	5.49	-0.6
2028	33	MLB CTX	CIN	61	0	64	270	52	28	10	0%	1.0	19.2%	10.3%	8.9%	3.7%	5.05	5.18	-0.5
2029	34	MLB CTX	CIN	52	0	55	232	42	25	9	0%	1.1	18.3%	10.8%	7.5%	4.0%	5.31	5.49	-0.6
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		262	0	302	1289	291	145	42	0%	1.2	22.6%	11.2%	11.4%	3.3%	4.45	4.41	+0.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		174	0	200	854	193	96	28	0%	1.2	22.6%	11.2%	11.4%	3.3%	4.45	4.41	+0.3
Career	—	MLE		330	0	431	1839	450	203	41	0%	1.3	24.5%	11.1%	13.4%	2.3%	3.66	3.67	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		153	0	200	854	209	94	19	0%	1.3	24.5%	11.1%	13.4%	2.3%	3.66	3.67	-0.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ron Marinaccio (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.90	20.0%	9.8%	3.4%	—	5.33	18.8%	8.2%	128	+0.43	—	—	—
Joe Nelson R 2006 · 3.91 FIP	31	SU	3.91	22.8%	10.4%	2.6%	.258	4.05	23.4%	12.8%	94	+0.14	3.08	139	83
Angel Castro R 2015 · 4.50 FIP	32	SU	4.50	15.9%	8.0%	3.1%	.268	4.28	13.6%	5.5%	231	-0.22	3.51	292	82
Brian Sanches R 2011 · 4.35 FIP	32	SU	4.35	19.6%	11.1%	2.7%	.250	—	—	—	—	—	3.39	229	82
Jeff Fulchino R 2011 · 4.44 FIP	31	SU	4.44	20.4%	11.1%	3.0%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	3.36	178	82
Mike Broadway R 2018 · 4.65 FIP	31	SU	4.65	23.0%	10.6%	3.9%	.282	—	—	—	—	—	1.74	195	82
Neil Wagner R 2016 · 4.05 FIP	32	SU	4.05	19.8%	12.3%	1.9%	.360	3.11	20.7%	12.1%	54	-0.94	3.11	135	80
Scott Atchison R 2007 · 4.55 FIP	31	SU	4.55	19.1%	7.6%	3.8%	.297	4.59	16.2%	9.5%	60	+0.04	2.52	340	79
Felipe Arredondo R 2019 · 4.65 FIP	32	SU	4.65	16.2%	7.1%	3.7%	.272	—	—	—	—	—	3.92	337	78
Jumbo Diaz R 2016 · 3.85 FIP	32	SU	3.85	22.3%	9.2%	2.7%	.247	3.28	23.0%	13.8%	141	-0.57	2.80	319	78
Mike Buddie R 2002 · 4.26 FIP	31	SU	4.26	15.1%	7.6%	2.7%	.297	—	—	—	—	—	3.76	123	77
Jim Henderson R 2015 · 5.27 FIP	32	SU	5.27	16.7%	11.9%	3.8%	.307	4.55	25.8%	16.8%	35	-0.72	1.86	167	77
Juan Sandoval R 2015 · 3.82 FIP	34	SU	3.82	15.4%	6.0%	2.3%	.294	3.33	17.4%	8.8%	116	-0.49	3.24	225	77
Santiago Casilla R 2012 · 3.98 FIP	32	SU	3.98	20.2%	6.6%	3.2%	.246	3.23	21.6%	13.7%	166	-0.75	2.76	647	76
Tyler Sturdevant R 2017 · 4.48 FIP	31	SU	4.48	13.5%	6.7%	3.0%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	3.44	149	76
Hector Navarro R 2015 · 4.35 FIP	35	SU	4.35	15.0%	5.4%	3.3%	.281	3.00	15.2%	9.0%	81	-1.35	2.30	126	75
Miguel Mejia R 2019 · 4.41 FIP	31	SU	4.41	15.7%	10.7%	2.3%	.341	—	—	—	—	—	3.37	108	75
Rafael Martín R 2016 · 4.74 FIP	32	SU	4.74	20.5%	10.7%	3.7%	.265	3.96	21.3%	15.8%	110	-0.78	2.94	227	75
Kiko Calero R 2007 · 3.88 FIP	32	SU	3.88	16.8%	10.3%	1.6%	.326	2.27	28.9%	18.0%	60	-1.61	2.27	298	74
Austin Adams R 2019 · 5.80 FIP	32	SU	5.80	20.8%	10.6%	5.7%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	3.40	162	74
Ryan Kelly R 2019 · 4.33 FIP	31	SU	4.33	14.7%	7.2%	2.8%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	2.49	131	73

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.9	55	22.0%	11.0%	1.28	4.55
Josias Manzanillo ('04)	1.7	57	20.0%	10.2%	1.21	4.71
Valerio De Los Santos ('08)	1.3	51	18.7%	11.5%	1.30	4.57
Bill Scherrer ('82-'88, 1 WAR*)	1.6	62	20.7%*	10.2%*	1.19*	4.44*
José Ruiz ('25)	1.4	57	22.3%	10.4%	1.44	4.62
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Bill Pleis ('61-'66, -0 WAR*)	1.4	56	19.7%*	9.8%*	1.15*	4.53*