Sean Guenther

P Toledo Mud Hens

Age 31 LHP 5'11" / 194 lbs AAA

Overview

AAARP

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	28	MIX2 levels	56	2	73	2.60	2.76	21.7%	5.8%	1.6	K 19.2% · BB 5.3% · FIP 3.18
2025	29	MIX4 levels	16	2	18	5.40	3.32	19.5%	9.1%	0.3	K 19.5% · BB 9.1% · FIP 3.32
2026	30	AAADET	12	3	17	5.40	3.76	21.4%	7.1%	—	K 18.4% · BB 6.4% · FIP 4.08
2027PROJ	31	MLBDET	50	0	52	4.34	4.57	16.7%	7.6%	-0.0
2028PROJ37% MLB	32	MLBDET	17	0	18	4.61	4.80	16.6%	8.2%	-0.1
2029PROJ55% MLB	33	MLBDET	24	0	25	4.86	5.05	16.2%	8.7%	-0.1

Last 3 seasons WAR 1.8 · Next 3 projected WAR -0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff41Control52Command38FB velo40

CompsRaul Valdes (age 32) · Andrew Barbosa (age 29) · Jeremy Bleich (age 31)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 104112vR 120

ERA4.34

FIP4.57

K%16.7%

BB%7.6%

K-BB%9.0%

Proj IP52

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 52 IP

Grades · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL5050

CMD4040

K†4040

SL+1.3 (34%)

SI (41%)

FB-1.7 (44%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2017	21	ROK MLE	GCL Marlins	4	3	11	42	11	1	0	75%	2.8	26.2%	2.4%	23.8%	0.0%	0.82	1.19	—
2017	21	ROK RAW	GCL Marlins	4	3	11	42	11	1	0	75%	2.8	26.2%	2.4%	23.8%	0.0%	0.82	1.37	—
2018	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	21	15	88	384	55	8	8	71%	4.2	10.5%	2.5%	8.0%	2.9%	4.48	4.11	—
2018	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	21	15	88	384	55	8	8	71%	4.2	14.3%	2.1%	12.2%	2.1%	4.48	3.30	—
2019	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	3	71	292	72	16	5	9%	2.0	18.7%	6.4%	12.3%	2.5%	2.02	3.73	—
2019	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	35	3	71	292	72	16	5	9%	2.0	24.7%	5.5%	19.2%	1.7%	2.02	2.67	—
2021	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	40	1	61	262	69	16	4	2%	1.5	23.2%	6.3%	16.9%	1.8%	5.19	2.93	+1.2
2021	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	40	1	61	262	69	16	4	2%	1.5	26.3%	6.1%	20.2%	1.5%	5.19	2.47	+1.5
2023	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	39	6	51	208	62	12	9	15%	1.3	23.4%	6.0%	17.4%	7.2%	3.55	5.82	—
2023	27	MIX RAW	3 levels	39	6	51	208	62	12	9	15%	1.3	29.8%	5.8%	24.0%	4.3%	3.55	3.67	—
2024	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	56	2	73	295	64	17	4	4%	1.3	19.2%	5.3%	14.0%	1.9%	2.60	3.18	+1.2
2024	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	56	2	73	295	64	17	4	4%	1.3	19.2%	5.3%	14.0%	1.9%	2.60	3.18	+1.2
2024	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	56	2	73	295	64	17	4	4%	1.3	21.7%	5.8%	15.9%	1.4%	2.60	2.76	+1.6
2025	29	MIX MLE	4 levels	16	2	18	77	15	7	1	12%	1.1	19.5%	9.1%	10.4%	1.3%	5.40	3.32	+0.3
2025	29	MIX MLE	4 levels	16	2	18	77	15	7	1	12%	1.1	19.5%	9.1%	10.4%	1.3%	5.40	3.32	+0.3
2025	29	MIX RAW	4 levels	16	2	18	77	15	7	1	12%	1.1	19.5%	9.1%	10.4%	1.3%	5.40	3.32	+0.3
2026	30	AAA MLE	Toledo Mud Hens	12	3	17	70	15	5	2	25%	1.4	18.4%	6.4%	12.0%	3.1%	5.40	4.08	—
2026	30	AAA MLE	Toledo Mud Hens	12	3	17	70	15	5	2	25%	1.4	18.4%	6.4%	12.0%	3.1%	5.40	4.08	—
2026	30	AAA RAW	Toledo Mud Hens	12	3	17	70	15	5	2	25%	1.4	21.4%	7.1%	14.3%	2.9%	5.40	3.76	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			40	1	52	219	35	16	1	2%	1.3	16.0%	7.3%	8.7%	0.5%	5.05	2.93	+1.0
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	31	MLB	DET	50	0	52	220	37	17	6	0%	1.0	16.7%	7.6%	9.0%	2.8%	4.34	4.57	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	32	MLB MLE	DET	46	0	48	205	34	17	6	0%	1.1	16.6%	8.2%	8.4%	3.1%	4.61	4.80	-0.1
2029	33	MLB MLE	DET	42	0	44	188	30	16	6	0%	1.1	16.2%	8.7%	7.5%	3.3%	4.86	5.05	-0.3
2028	32	MLB CTX	DET	17	0	18	76	13	6	2	0%	1.1	16.6%	8.2%	8.4%	3.1%	4.61	4.80	-0.1
2029	33	MLB CTX	DET	24	0	25	106	17	9	4	0%	1.0	16.2%	8.7%	7.5%	3.3%	4.86	5.05	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		80	1	94	398	64	31	7	1%	1.2	16.1%	7.8%	8.3%	1.7%	4.92	3.66	+1.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		171	2	200	846	136	66	15	1%	1.2	16.1%	7.8%	8.3%	1.7%	4.92	3.66	+2.1
Career	—	MLE		223	35	390	1630	300	85	47	16%	1.7	18.4%	5.2%	13.2%	2.9%	3.65	3.79	+0.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		114	18	200	837	154	44	24	16%	1.7	18.4%	5.2%	13.2%	2.9%	3.65	3.79	+0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Sean Guenther (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.57	16.7%	7.6%	2.8%	—	4.92	16.4%	7.9%	93	+0.35	—	—	—
Raul Valdes L 2010 · 4.02 FIP	32	SU	4.02	21.4%	9.9%	2.7%	.301	3.14	27.4%	22.5%	78	-0.88	2.29	160	80
Andrew Barbosa L 2017 · 4.67 FIP	29	SU	4.67	20.2%	9.6%	3.8%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	2.70	175	78
Jeremy Bleich L 2018 · 3.69 FIP	31	SU	3.69	20.3%	6.6%	2.7%	.296	4.41	20.1%	13.1%	33	+0.72	3.20	241	76
Adam Liberatore L 2018 · 4.28 FIP	31	SU	4.28	18.6%	9.1%	2.9%	.354	—	—	—	—	—	2.38	124	75
Kraig Sitton L 2017 · 3.87 FIP	29	SU	3.87	14.7%	6.1%	2.2%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	2.81	166	73
Jason Gurka L 2019 · 5.13 FIP	31	SW	5.13	15.5%	7.6%	4.3%	.382	—	—	—	—	—	2.82	183	73
Tommy Phelps L 2005 · 3.98 FIP	31	SU	3.98	13.2%	7.5%	1.9%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	3.39	120	72
Randy Flores L 2006 · 4.00 FIP	31	SU	4.00	20.4%	9.7%	2.5%	.333	3.30	18.1%	10.5%	93	-0.70	2.51	250	72
Tommy Layne L 2016 · 3.43 FIP	31	SU	3.43	20.3%	9.6%	1.5%	.266	4.25	19.4%	10.0%	90	+0.82	0.55	218	72
Vic Darensbourg L 2002 · 5.46 FIP	31	SU	5.46	14.2%	9.4%	4.3%	.304	4.11	9.4%	4.2%	22	-1.35	2.94	287	71
Chad Zerbe L 2003 · 3.89 FIP	31	SU	3.89	7.8%	5.5%	1.4%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	3.75	145	70
Edward Paredes L 2018 · 3.81 FIP	31	SU	3.81	22.7%	11.9%	2.0%	.351	5.10	21.5%	14.2%	18	+1.29	2.36	130	70
Buddy Baumann L 2018 · 4.87 FIP	30	SU	4.87	20.5%	11.9%	3.6%	.258	—	—	—	—	—	2.92	155	69
Nick Hagadone L 2017 · 3.74 FIP	31	SU	3.74	22.6%	9.3%	2.5%	.267	—	—	—	—	—	2.97	141	69
Ryan O'Rourke L 2019 · 4.08 FIP	31	SU	4.08	22.1%	14.3%	1.9%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	3.05	145	68
Brian Shouse L 2002 · 5.54 FIP	33	SU	5.54	15.5%	11.3%	4.2%	.245	3.31	16.3%	10.7%	159	-2.23	2.32	339	68
Tom Martin L 2001 · 5.68 FIP	31	SU	5.68	14.1%	9.4%	4.7%	.311	4.25	19.8%	11.1%	96	-1.43	3.40	303	68
Pedro Feliciano L 2008 · 3.90 FIP	31	SU	3.90	21.1%	7.6%	2.9%	.309	3.02	22.1%	14.9%	122	-0.88	2.69	378	68
Darin Downs L 2015 · 4.06 FIP	30	SU	4.06	12.9%	4.2%	2.8%	.288	—	—	—	—	—	2.83	107	68
Edgar Osuna L 2019 · 5.09 FIP	31	SW	5.09	10.0%	7.2%	3.5%	.373	—	—	—	—	—	5.05	175	68

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	39	16.4%	8.0%	0.92	4.71
Dave Leiper ('84-'96, 0 WAR*)	1.4	46	15.6%*	9.1%*	0.94*	4.28*
Ramon Pena ('11)	1.9	63	16.0%	8.0%	0.90	4.43
Vic Darensbourg ('05)	1.5	50	17.0%	9.3%	1.01	4.96
Travis Miller ('02)	1.3	45	16.3%	9.2%	0.91	5.05
Joe Grzenda ('61-'72, 0 WAR*)	1.5	51	17.2%*	8.6%*	0.76*	4.83*
Bert Roberge ('79-'86, 1 WAR*)	1.1	37	18.1%*	8.7%*	0.68*	4.73*