Nelson L. Alvarez

P Reading Fightin Phils

Age 29 RHP 6'4" / 220 lbs AA

Overview

AAPROSPECT

MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	25	MIX2 levels	44	53	3.59	1.79	35.7%	9.5%	—	K 28.6% · BB 10.6% · FIP 2.58
2024	26	MIX2 levels	39	52	3.48	3.64	28.2%	13.2%	—	K 23.2% · BB 13.1% · FIP 4.12
2025	27	AAPHI	28	35	5.19	4.02	22.8%	8.2%	—	K 18.5% · BB 9.1% · FIP 4.70
2027PROJ	29	MLBPHI	22	23	4.62	4.62	21.1%	10.0%	-0.0
2028PROJ31% MLB	30	MLBPHI	7	7	4.70	4.77	21.0%	10.2%	-0.0

Next 2 projected WAR -0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

CompsNeil Wagner (age 29) · Joe Nelson (age 31) · Wirfin Obispo (age 30)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 121113vR 105

ERA4.62

FIP4.62

K%21.1%

BB%10.0%

K-BB%11.1%

Proj IP23

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 23 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2019	21	ROK MLE	GCL Yankees East	3	0	3	13	2	3	0	0%	0.9	15.4%	23.1%	-7.7%	0.0%	6.75	4.72	—
2019	21	ROK RAW	GCL Yankees East	3	0	3	13	2	3	0	0%	0.9	15.4%	23.1%	-7.7%	0.0%	6.75	4.97	—
2021	23	A+ MLE	Hudson Valley Renegades	30	0	40	200	41	32	9	0%	1.3	15.8%	18.4%	-2.6%	5.6%	8.55	7.19	—
2021	23	A+ RAW	Hudson Valley Renegades	30	0	40	200	41	32	9	0%	1.3	20.5%	16.0%	4.5%	4.5%	8.55	6.38	—
2022	24	A+ MLE	Hudson Valley Renegades	35	0	54	225	65	32	3	0%	1.5	22.2%	16.4%	5.9%	1.6%	2.85	4.20	—
2022	24	A+ RAW	Hudson Valley Renegades	35	0	54	225	65	32	3	0%	1.5	28.9%	14.2%	14.7%	1.3%	2.85	3.19	—
2023	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	44	0	53	221	79	21	2	0%	1.2	28.6%	10.6%	18.0%	1.0%	3.59	2.58	—
2023	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	44	0	53	221	79	21	2	0%	1.2	35.7%	9.5%	26.2%	0.9%	3.59	1.79	—
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	39	0	52	220	62	29	5	0%	1.3	23.2%	13.1%	10.1%	2.4%	3.48	4.12	—
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	39	0	52	220	62	29	5	0%	1.3	23.2%	13.1%	10.1%	2.4%	3.48	4.12	—
2024	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	39	0	52	220	62	29	5	0%	1.3	28.2%	13.2%	15.0%	2.3%	3.48	3.64	—
2025	27	AA MLE	Reading Fightin Phils	28	0	35	158	36	13	5	0%	1.2	18.5%	9.1%	9.4%	3.7%	5.19	4.70	—
2025	27	AA MLE	Reading Fightin Phils	28	0	35	158	36	13	5	0%	1.2	18.5%	9.1%	9.4%	3.7%	5.19	4.70	—
2025	27	AA RAW	Reading Fightin Phils	28	0	35	158	36	13	5	0%	1.2	22.8%	8.2%	14.6%	3.2%	5.19	4.02	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	29	MLB	PHI	22	0	23	97	20	10	3	0%	1.0	21.1%	10.0%	11.1%	3.0%	4.62	4.62	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	30	MLB MLE	PHI	20	0	21	90	19	9	3	0%	1.1	21.0%	10.2%	10.7%	3.2%	4.70	4.77	-0.1
2028	30	MLB CTX	PHI	7	0	7	30	6	3	1	0%	1.0	21.0%	10.2%	10.7%	3.2%	4.70	4.77	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		6	0	7	28	6	3	1	0%	1.1	21.0%	10.2%	10.7%	3.2%	4.70	4.39	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	180	90	30	0%	1.1	21.0%	10.2%	10.7%	3.2%	4.70	4.39	+0.4
Career	—	MLE		179	0	235	1037	227	143	28	0%	1.3	21.9%	13.8%	8.1%	2.7%	4.51	4.49	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		152	0	200	881	193	122	24	0%	1.3	21.9%	13.8%	8.1%	2.7%	4.51	4.49	-0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Nelson L. Alvarez (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.62	21.1%	10.0%	3.0%	—	4.77	21.0%	10.7%	21	+0.15	—	—	—
Neil Wagner R 2013 · 4.02 FIP	29	SU	4.02	20.5%	7.5%	3.1%	.306	4.05	19.8%	7.5%	43	+0.03	3.11	135	88
Joe Nelson R 2006 · 3.91 FIP	31	SU	3.91	22.8%	10.4%	2.6%	.258	4.05	23.4%	12.8%	94	+0.14	3.08	139	88
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	86
Jim Miller R 2012 · 4.56 FIP	30	SU	4.56	20.9%	11.8%	3.1%	.243	3.95	18.8%	14.7%	74	-0.61	3.95	140	86
Tyler Sturdevant R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	29	SU	4.37	21.3%	8.5%	3.6%	.241	3.97	18.5%	11.9%	118	-0.40	3.44	149	86
Dustin Molleken R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	30	SU	3.74	20.4%	11.7%	1.6%	.287	3.90	20.6%	8.4%	77	+0.16	3.38	129	83
Gerardo Sanchez R 2017 · 3.47 FIP	28	SU	3.47	21.6%	8.4%	2.1%	.355	3.58	20.5%	15.1%	56	+0.11	2.65	137	83
Diego Moreno R 2016 · 3.75 FIP	29	SU	3.75	21.0%	8.2%	2.5%	.347	3.13	17.8%	11.9%	54	-0.62	2.29	187	83
Brian Sanches R 2008 · 4.74 FIP	29	SU	4.74	18.5%	9.3%	3.7%	.378	4.01	20.5%	10.8%	182	-0.73	3.39	229	82
Tyler Walker R 2005 · 4.19 FIP	29	SU	4.19	19.4%	7.5%	3.2%	.303	3.61	19.7%	11.3%	93	-0.58	2.38	289	82
Coleman Huntley III R 2022 · 4.05 FIP	29	SU	4.05	24.4%	10.9%	3.0%	.311	2.38	20.9%	12.6%	25	-1.67	2.38	160	81
Brandon Cunniff R 2017 · 4.79 FIP	28	SU	4.79	20.1%	11.6%	3.5%	.275	6.80	13.9%	-1.9%	30	+2.01	3.89	180	81
Marc Magliaro R 2018 · 3.94 FIP	28	SU	3.94	19.6%	7.3%	2.9%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.94	125	79
Jason Bulger R 2008 · 4.60 FIP	29	SU	4.60	27.4%	12.3%	4.1%	.293	3.94	25.1%	13.3%	90	-0.66	3.78	106	79
Joe Colón J R 2017 · 4.25 FIP	27	SU	4.25	20.4%	12.1%	2.4%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	3.27	113	79
Francisco Mendoza R 2016 · 3.81 FIP	28	SU	3.81	17.9%	7.7%	2.3%	.344	—	—	—	—	—	3.13	120	79
Kevin Gryboski R 2003 · 3.67 FIP	29	SU	3.67	16.8%	8.9%	1.6%	.295	3.92	9.4%	0.2%	82	+0.25	3.67	178	79
Cody Hall R 2017 · 4.03 FIP	29	SU	4.03	26.8%	10.0%	3.5%	.299	3.92	25.9%	8.4%	19	-0.11	3.51	134	79
Angel Castro R 2015 · 4.50 FIP	32	SU	4.50	15.9%	8.0%	3.1%	.268	4.28	13.6%	5.5%	231	-0.22	3.51	292	79
Joel Peralta R 2005 · 4.67 FIP	29	SU	4.67	20.7%	8.3%	4.1%	.227	4.27	18.0%	13.3%	214	-0.40	2.70	648	78