Nolan Blackwood

P Nashville Sounds

Age 32 RHP 6'5" / 185 lbs AAA

Overview

AAAPROSPECT

MLB%10%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	28	AAASEA	36	47	4.75	3.04	17.2%	8.9%	—	K 14.8% · BB 8.0% · FIP 3.12
2024	29	AAAMIL	22	24	2.22	3.31	18.3%	9.6%	—	K 15.7% · BB 8.7% · FIP 3.51
2027PROJ	32	MLBMIL	12	13	4.48	4.48	20.9%	9.0%	0.0
2028PROJ37% MLB	33	MLBMIL	7	7	4.61	4.71	20.6%	9.5%	-0.0

Next 2 projected WAR -0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

CompsArcenio Leon (age 32) · Joe Nelson (age 31) · Jose Manuel Lopez (age 32)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 118110vR 102

ERA4.48

FIP4.48

K%20.9%

BB%9.0%

K-BB%11.8%

Proj IP13

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 13 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2016	21	A MLE	Beloit Snappers	13	0	20	83	20	4	1	0%	1.5	17.8%	5.7%	12.1%	1.5%	4.05	3.15	—
2016	21	A RAW	Beloit Snappers	13	0	20	83	20	4	1	0%	1.5	24.1%	4.8%	19.3%	1.2%	4.05	2.35	—
2017	22	A+ MLE	Stockton Ports	44	0	57	236	48	16	2	0%	1.3	15.7%	7.8%	7.9%	0.8%	3.00	3.18	—
2017	22	A+ RAW	Stockton Ports	44	0	57	236	48	16	2	0%	1.3	20.3%	6.8%	13.6%	0.8%	3.00	2.71	—
2018	23	AA MLE	Erie SeaWolves	45	0	61	268	55	17	5	0%	1.4	16.6%	7.0%	9.6%	2.0%	4.13	3.69	—
2018	23	AA RAW	Erie SeaWolves	45	0	61	268	55	17	5	0%	1.4	20.5%	6.3%	14.2%	1.9%	4.13	3.20	—
2019	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	44	0	69	285	64	28	4	0%	1.6	18.4%	9.9%	8.6%	1.0%	2.60	3.36	—
2019	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	44	0	69	285	64	28	4	0%	1.6	22.5%	9.8%	12.6%	1.4%	2.60	3.22	—
2021	26	AAA MLE	Toledo Mud Hens	37	2	60	268	51	22	5	5%	1.6	16.7%	8.6%	8.1%	2.0%	4.92	3.85	—
2021	26	AAA RAW	Toledo Mud Hens	37	2	60	268	51	22	5	5%	1.6	19.0%	8.2%	10.8%	1.9%	4.92	3.58	—
2022	27	AAA MLE	Toledo Mud Hens	44	0	50	214	38	19	9	0%	1.1	15.6%	9.3%	6.3%	4.5%	3.81	5.44	—
2022	27	AAA RAW	Toledo Mud Hens	44	0	50	214	38	19	9	0%	1.1	17.8%	8.9%	8.9%	4.2%	3.81	5.07	—
2023	28	AAA MLE	Tacoma Rainiers	36	0	47	203	35	18	1	0%	1.3	14.8%	8.0%	6.8%	0.5%	4.75	3.12	—
2023	28	AAA RAW	Tacoma Rainiers	36	0	47	203	35	18	1	0%	1.3	17.2%	8.9%	8.4%	0.5%	4.75	3.04	—
2024	29	AAA MLE	Nashville Sounds	22	0	24	104	19	10	1	0%	1.1	15.7%	8.7%	7.1%	1.2%	2.22	3.51	—
2024	29	AAA MLE	Nashville Sounds	22	0	24	104	19	10	1	0%	1.1	15.7%	8.7%	7.1%	1.2%	2.22	3.51	—
2024	29	AAA RAW	Nashville Sounds	22	0	24	104	19	10	1	0%	1.1	18.3%	9.6%	8.7%	1.0%	2.22	3.31	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	32	MLB	MIL	12	0	13	55	11	5	2	0%	1.1	20.9%	9.0%	11.8%	2.9%	4.48	4.48	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	33	MLB MLE	MIL	19	0	20	84	17	8	3	0%	1.1	20.6%	9.5%	11.1%	3.2%	4.61	4.71	-0.0
2028	33	MLB CTX	MIL	7	0	7	30	6	3	1	0%	1.0	20.6%	9.5%	11.1%	3.2%	4.61	4.71	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		7	0	7	31	6	3	1	0%	1.1	20.6%	9.5%	11.1%	3.2%	4.61	4.33	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	163	82	27	0%	1.1	20.6%	9.5%	11.1%	3.2%	4.61	4.33	+0.5
Career	—	MLE		285	2	389	1661	274	138	28	1%	1.4	16.5%	8.3%	8.2%	1.7%	3.72	3.70	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		147	1	200	854	141	71	15	1%	1.4	16.5%	8.3%	8.2%	1.7%	3.72	3.70	-0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Nolan Blackwood (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.48	20.9%	9.0%	2.9%	—	4.71	20.6%	11.1%	20	+0.23	—	—	—
Arcenio Leon R 2019 · 3.61 FIP	32	SU	3.61	21.4%	8.1%	2.4%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	3.00	115	88
Joe Nelson R 2006 · 3.91 FIP	31	SU	3.91	22.8%	10.4%	2.6%	.258	4.05	23.4%	12.8%	94	+0.14	3.08	139	86
Jose Manuel Lopez R 2017 · 3.61 FIP	32	SU	3.61	20.4%	10.0%	1.8%	.331	6.14	17.9%	3.7%	41	+2.53	3.50	170	83
Mike Broadway R 2018 · 4.65 FIP	31	SU	4.65	23.0%	10.6%	3.9%	.282	—	—	—	—	—	1.74	195	81
Scott Atchison R 2007 · 4.55 FIP	31	SU	4.55	19.1%	7.6%	3.8%	.297	4.59	16.2%	9.5%	60	+0.04	2.52	340	80
Sergio Santos R 2015 · 4.17 FIP	32	SU	4.17	24.7%	8.2%	3.9%	.283	—	—	—	—	—	1.36	178	80
Angel Castro R 2015 · 4.50 FIP	32	SU	4.50	15.9%	8.0%	3.1%	.268	4.28	13.6%	5.5%	231	-0.22	3.51	292	79
Neil Wagner R 2016 · 4.05 FIP	32	SU	4.05	19.8%	12.3%	1.9%	.360	3.11	20.7%	12.1%	54	-0.94	3.11	135	78
Mark Serrano R 2017 · 3.56 FIP	31	SU	3.56	21.9%	6.4%	2.7%	.240	5.25	20.2%	12.3%	42	+1.69	3.16	120	77
Juan Sandoval R 2015 · 3.82 FIP	34	SU	3.82	15.4%	6.0%	2.3%	.294	3.33	17.4%	8.8%	116	-0.49	3.24	225	77
Miguel Mejia R 2019 · 4.41 FIP	31	SU	4.41	15.7%	10.7%	2.3%	.341	—	—	—	—	—	3.37	108	77
Jeff Fulchino R 2011 · 4.44 FIP	31	SU	4.44	20.4%	11.1%	3.0%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	3.36	178	77
Mike Buddie R 2002 · 4.26 FIP	31	SU	4.26	15.1%	7.6%	2.7%	.297	—	—	—	—	—	3.76	123	77
Ryan Kelly R 2019 · 4.33 FIP	31	SU	4.33	14.7%	7.2%	2.8%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	2.49	131	77
Hector Navarro R 2015 · 4.35 FIP	35	SU	4.35	15.0%	5.4%	3.3%	.281	3.00	15.2%	9.0%	81	-1.35	2.30	126	76
James Hoyt R 2019 · 3.45 FIP	32	SU	3.45	22.2%	9.9%	1.8%	.355	5.63	22.1%	10.4%	50	+2.18	1.61	312	76
Adrian Ramirez R 2019 · 4.29 FIP	31	SU	4.29	21.7%	6.3%	4.0%	.327	—	—	—	—	—	3.04	137	76
Erik Davis R 2018 · 3.52 FIP	31	SU	3.52	17.4%	8.9%	1.4%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	3.05	227	76
Felipe Arredondo R 2019 · 4.65 FIP	32	SU	4.65	16.2%	7.1%	3.7%	.272	—	—	—	—	—	3.92	337	75
Dale Thayer R 2013 · 3.62 FIP	32	SU	3.62	23.7%	7.4%	2.9%	.287	3.85	20.6%	15.0%	103	+0.23	2.75	239	75