Kyle Nelson

P Reno Aces

Age 31 LHP 6'1" / 175 lbs AAA

Overview

AAARP

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	27	MLBARI	68	2	56	4.18	4.19	28.0%	5.4%	0.2
2024	28	MLBARI	11	0	11	4.22	4.88	19.0%	7.1%	-0.0
2025	29	MIX3 levels	46	0	37	8.84	7.87	20.2%	12.1%	-1.4	K 16.8% · BB 9.6% · FIP 8.36
2027PROJ	31	MLBARI	52	0	55	5.20	5.15	18.9%	8.9%	-0.4
2028PROJ37% MLB	32	MLBARI	18	0	19	5.32	5.40	18.1%	9.3%	-0.2
2029PROJ55% MLB	33	MLBARI	25	0	26	5.54	5.68	17.3%	9.7%	-0.3

Last 3 seasons WAR -1.2 · Next 3 projected WAR -0.9Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff58Control53Command56FB velo41

CompsRaul Valdes (age 32) · Adam Liberatore (age 31) · Randy Flores (age 31)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 115123vR 131

ERA5.20

FIP5.15

K%18.9%

BB%8.9%

K-BB%10.0%

Proj IP55

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 55 IP

Grades · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF6060

CTRL5555

CMD5555

K†4545

FB+0.6 (39%)

CT (7%)

SL-1.4 (55%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2018	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	0	46	184	67	6	0	0%	1.3	27.3%	0.9%	26.5%	0.0%	1.58	0.90	—
2018	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	35	0	46	184	67	6	0	0%	1.3	36.4%	3.3%	33.2%	0.0%	1.58	0.56	—
2019	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	42	1	47	185	69	13	5	2%	1.1	27.8%	8.4%	19.4%	4.0%	2.28	4.00	—
2019	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	42	1	47	185	69	13	5	2%	1.1	37.3%	7.0%	30.3%	2.7%	2.28	2.38	—
2020	24	MLB MLE	Cleveland Indians	1	0	1	6	0	1	1	0%	0.7	0.0%	16.7%	-16.7%	16.7%	54.00	14.36	-0.1
2020	24	MLB RAW	Cleveland Indians	1	0	1	6	0	1	1	0%	0.7	0.0%	16.7%	-16.7%	16.7%	54.00	27.10	-0.2
2021	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	0	35	168	38	28	1	0%	1.0	22.2%	17.6%	4.5%	0.9%	7.39	3.95	+0.2
2021	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	35	0	35	168	38	28	1	0%	1.0	22.6%	16.7%	6.0%	0.6%	7.39	3.69	+0.4
2022	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	46	1	40	165	35	18	1	2%	0.9	19.9%	9.3%	10.6%	0.7%	2.04	2.98	+0.7
2022	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	46	1	40	165	35	18	1	2%	0.9	21.2%	10.9%	10.3%	0.6%	2.04	3.02	+0.7
2023	27	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	68	2	56	239	67	13	12	3%	0.8	28.0%	5.4%	22.6%	5.3%	4.18	4.34	+0.1
2023	27	MLB RAW	Arizona Diamondbacks	68	2	56	239	67	13	12	3%	0.8	28.0%	5.4%	22.6%	5.0%	4.18	4.19	+0.2
2024	28	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	11	0	11	42	8	3	2	0%	1.0	19.0%	7.1%	11.9%	4.8%	4.22	5.01	-0.1
2024	28	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	11	0	11	42	8	3	2	0%	1.0	19.0%	7.1%	11.9%	4.8%	4.22	5.01	-0.1
2024	28	MLB RAW	Arizona Diamondbacks	11	0	11	42	8	3	2	0%	1.0	19.0%	7.1%	11.9%	4.8%	4.22	4.88	-0.0
2025	29	MIX MLE	3 levels	46	0	37	173	35	21	14	0%	0.8	16.8%	9.6%	7.1%	9.9%	8.84	8.36	-1.6
2025	29	MIX MLE	3 levels	46	0	37	173	35	21	14	0%	0.8	16.8%	9.6%	7.1%	9.9%	8.84	8.36	-1.6
2025	29	MIX RAW	3 levels	46	0	37	173	35	21	14	0%	0.8	20.2%	12.1%	8.1%	8.1%	8.84	7.87	-1.4
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			136	3	116	498	115	43	17	2%	0.9	23.1%	8.6%	14.5%	3.4%	4.34	4.13	+0.6
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	31	MLB	ARI	52	0	55	232	44	21	9	0%	1.1	18.9%	8.9%	10.0%	3.9%	5.20	5.15	-0.4
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	32	MLB MLE	ARI	49	0	51	216	39	20	9	0%	1.0	18.1%	9.3%	8.8%	4.1%	5.32	5.40	-0.5
2029	33	MLB MLE	ARI	45	0	47	198	34	19	9	0%	1.0	17.3%	9.7%	7.5%	4.4%	5.54	5.68	-0.6
2030	34	MLB MLE	ARI	41	0	43	181	30	18	9	0%	1.0	16.4%	10.2%	6.1%	4.7%	5.81	5.98	-0.7
2028	32	MLB CTX	ARI	18	0	19	80	15	7	3	0%	1.1	18.1%	9.3%	8.8%	4.1%	5.32	5.40	-0.2
2029	33	MLB CTX	ARI	25	0	26	110	19	11	5	0%	1.0	17.3%	9.7%	7.5%	4.4%	5.54	5.68	-0.3
2030	34	MLB CTX	ARI	21	0	22	93	15	9	4	0%	1.0	16.4%	10.2%	6.1%	4.7%	5.81	5.98	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		199	3	182	778	163	70	29	2%	0.9	21.0%	9.0%	11.9%	3.8%	4.79	4.55	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		218	3	200	853	179	77	32	2%	0.9	21.0%	9.0%	11.9%	3.8%	4.79	4.55	-0.0
Career	—	MLE		284	4	272	1162	276	96	43	1%	1.0	23.7%	8.2%	15.5%	3.7%	4.27	4.17	-1.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		209	3	200	854	203	70	32	1%	1.0	23.7%	8.2%	15.5%	3.7%	4.27	4.17	-1.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Kyle Nelson (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.15	18.9%	8.9%	3.9%	—	5.67	17.3%	7.6%	141	+0.52	—	—	—
Raul Valdes L 2010 · 4.02 FIP	32	SU	4.02	21.4%	9.9%	2.7%	.301	3.14	27.4%	22.5%	78	-0.88	2.29	160	80
Adam Liberatore L 2018 · 4.28 FIP	31	SU	4.28	18.6%	9.1%	2.9%	.354	—	—	—	—	—	2.38	124	78
Randy Flores L 2006 · 4.00 FIP	31	SU	4.00	20.4%	9.7%	2.5%	.333	3.30	18.1%	10.5%	93	-0.70	2.51	250	77
Andrew Barbosa L 2017 · 4.67 FIP	29	SU	4.67	20.2%	9.6%	3.8%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	2.70	175	76
Buddy Baumann L 2018 · 4.87 FIP	30	SU	4.87	20.5%	11.9%	3.6%	.258	—	—	—	—	—	2.92	155	75
Brian Shouse L 2002 · 5.54 FIP	33	SU	5.54	15.5%	11.3%	4.2%	.245	3.31	16.3%	10.7%	159	-2.23	2.32	339	75
Vic Darensbourg L 2002 · 5.46 FIP	31	SU	5.46	14.2%	9.4%	4.3%	.304	4.11	9.4%	4.2%	22	-1.35	2.94	287	72
Juan Pablo Perez L 2007 · 5.32 FIP	28	SU	5.32	17.5%	14.0%	3.5%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	1.75	104	70
Tom Martin L 2001 · 5.68 FIP	31	SU	5.68	14.1%	9.4%	4.7%	.311	4.25	19.8%	11.1%	96	-1.43	3.40	303	70
Ryan O'Rourke L 2019 · 4.08 FIP	31	SU	4.08	22.1%	14.3%	1.9%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	3.05	145	69
Tommy Phelps L 2005 · 3.98 FIP	31	SU	3.98	13.2%	7.5%	1.9%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	3.39	120	69
Tyler Olson L 2021 · 3.96 FIP	31	SU	3.96	21.6%	8.7%	2.9%	.250	—	—	—	—	—	3.15	263	69
Doug Slaten L 2011 · 4.66 FIP	31	SU	4.66	15.5%	7.1%	3.6%	.371	5.10	10.9%	-3.6%	13	+0.44	3.22	139	67
Tony Watson L 2016 · 4.37 FIP	31	SU	4.37	21.3%	7.0%	4.0%	.227	3.43	21.4%	16.9%	187	-0.94	2.21	648	67
Mike Zagurski L 2012 · 4.48 FIP	29	SU	4.48	20.9%	11.7%	3.0%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	2.94	120	67
James Jones L 2019 · 4.28 FIP	30	SU	4.28	21.9%	13.0%	2.5%	.230	4.65	23.9%	8.8%	35	+0.37	3.58	127	66
Phil Dumatrait L 2011 · 5.09 FIP	30	SU	5.09	14.8%	10.2%	3.5%	.271	—	—	—	—	—	4.39	151	66
Jason Gurka L 2019 · 5.13 FIP	31	SW	5.13	15.5%	7.6%	4.3%	.382	—	—	—	—	—	2.82	183	65
Darin Downs L 2015 · 4.06 FIP	30	SU	4.06	12.9%	4.2%	2.8%	.288	—	—	—	—	—	2.83	107	64
Scott Sauerbeck L 2003 · 4.59 FIP	31	SU	4.59	19.2%	14.6%	2.3%	.247	4.29	18.9%	7.8%	61	-0.30	2.79	386	63

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.6	52	19.7%	9.3%	1.53	5.04
Scott Proctor ('11)	1.7	57	19.0%	10.9%	1.52	4.78
Drew VerHagen ('23)	1.4	47	19.1%	9.4%	1.37	4.98
Mike Mayers ('23)	1.3	53	23.0%	8.3%	1.61	5.21
Randy St. Claire ('84-'94, -0 WAR*)	1.3	50	19.0%*	8.4%*	1.39*	4.61*
Bob Macdonald ('90-'96, 1 WAR*)	1.2	59	18.3%*	9.8%*	1.20*	4.32*
Phil Hennigan ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.4	70	20.9%*	10.4%*	1.50*	4.95*