Jack Little

P Toledo Mud Hens

Age 29 RHP 6'4" / 190 lbs AAA peak 0.1 · 2027

Overview

AAARPROOKIE

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	26	MIX2 levels	47	0	57	3.79	3.10	26.6%	6.8%	—	K 22.4% · BB 6.5% · FIP 3.74
2025	27	MIX2 levels	52	0	65	4.15	3.38	19.9%	7.6%	0.9	K 17.3% · BB 6.8% · FIP 3.76
2026	28	AAADET	47	3	61	4.11	3.85	23.0%	9.6%	—	K 19.8% · BB 8.6% · FIP 4.14
2027PROJ	29	MLBDET	66	0	69	4.58	4.58	18.1%	8.2%	-0.0
2028PROJ37% MLB	30	MLBDET	23	0	24	4.66	4.73	18.3%	8.6%	-0.0
2029PROJ55% MLB	31	MLBDET	31	0	33	4.79	4.90	18.3%	9.0%	-0.1

Last 3 seasons WAR 0.9 · Next 3 projected WAR -0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff40Control55Command45

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 97%

CompsAngel Castro (age 32) · Tyler Walker (age 29) · Neil Wagner (age 29)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 120112vR 104

ERA4.58

FIP4.58

K%18.1%

BB%8.2%

K-BB%10.0%

Proj IP69

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 69 IP

Grades · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL5555

CMD4545

K†4545

SL+0.6 (27%)

FB-0.6 (57%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2019	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	11	11	22	93	21	14	3	100%	2.0	15.2%	19.9%	-4.7%	4.6%	3.27	6.87	—
2019	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	11	11	22	93	21	14	3	100%	2.0	22.6%	15.1%	7.5%	3.2%	3.27	4.87	—
2021	23	A+ MLE	Great Lakes Loons	24	0	31	142	31	11	5	0%	1.3	16.8%	8.9%	7.9%	4.7%	6.75	5.41	—
2021	23	A+ RAW	Great Lakes Loons	24	0	31	142	31	11	5	0%	1.3	21.8%	7.7%	14.1%	3.5%	6.75	4.27	—
2023	25	AA MLE	Tulsa Drillers	20	0	19	95	18	15	4	0%	0.9	15.3%	17.4%	-2.0%	4.7%	7.71	6.57	—
2023	25	AA RAW	Tulsa Drillers	20	0	19	95	18	15	4	0%	0.9	18.9%	15.8%	3.2%	4.2%	7.71	6.37	—
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	47	0	57	237	63	16	6	0%	1.2	22.4%	6.5%	15.9%	3.1%	3.79	3.74	—
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	47	0	57	237	63	16	6	0%	1.2	22.4%	6.5%	15.9%	3.1%	3.79	3.74	—
2024	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	47	0	57	237	63	16	6	0%	1.2	26.6%	6.8%	19.8%	2.5%	3.79	3.10	—
2025	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	52	0	65	277	55	21	5	0%	1.2	17.3%	6.8%	10.5%	2.3%	4.15	3.76	+0.6
2025	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	52	0	65	277	55	21	5	0%	1.2	17.3%	6.8%	10.5%	2.3%	4.15	3.76	+0.6
2025	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	52	0	65	277	55	21	5	0%	1.2	19.9%	7.6%	12.3%	1.8%	4.15	3.38	+0.9
2026	28	AAA MLE	Toledo Mud Hens	47	3	61	261	60	25	7	6%	1.3	19.8%	8.6%	11.1%	3.0%	4.11	4.14	—
2026	28	AAA MLE	Toledo Mud Hens	47	3	61	261	60	25	7	6%	1.3	19.8%	8.6%	11.1%	3.0%	4.11	4.14	—
2026	28	AAA RAW	Toledo Mud Hens	47	3	61	261	60	25	7	6%	1.3	23.0%	9.6%	13.4%	2.7%	4.11	3.85	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			2	0	3	14	2	1	0	0%	1.5	14.3%	7.1%	7.1%	0.0%	6.00	2.77	+0.1
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	29	MLB	DET	66	0	69	291	53	24	8	0%	1.0	18.1%	8.2%	10.0%	2.9%	4.58	4.58	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	30	MLB MLE	DET	61	0	64	272	50	23	8	0%	1.1	18.3%	8.6%	9.7%	3.1%	4.66	4.73	-0.1
2029	31	MLB MLE	DET	57	0	60	254	46	23	8	0%	1.1	18.3%	9.0%	9.3%	3.3%	4.79	4.90	-0.2
2028	30	MLB CTX	DET	23	0	24	101	19	9	3	0%	1.0	18.3%	8.6%	9.7%	3.1%	4.66	4.73	-0.0
2029	31	MLB CTX	DET	31	0	33	139	25	13	5	0%	1.1	18.3%	9.0%	9.3%	3.3%	4.79	4.90	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		56	0	60	254	46	22	8	0%	1.1	18.1%	8.7%	9.4%	3.1%	4.80	4.36	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		188	0	200	849	154	74	27	0%	1.1	18.1%	8.7%	9.4%	3.1%	4.80	4.36	+0.5
Career	—	MLE		201	14	255	1105	205	105	37	7%	1.3	18.6%	9.5%	9.1%	3.3%	4.56	4.56	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		158	11	200	868	161	82	29	7%	1.3	18.6%	9.5%	9.1%	3.3%	4.56	4.56	-0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jack Little (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.58	18.1%	8.2%	2.9%	—	4.81	18.3%	9.5%	125	+0.23	—	—	—
Angel Castro R 2015 · 4.50 FIP	32	SU	4.50	15.9%	8.0%	3.1%	.268	4.28	13.6%	5.5%	231	-0.22	3.51	292	89
Tyler Walker R 2005 · 4.19 FIP	29	SU	4.19	19.4%	7.5%	3.2%	.303	3.61	19.7%	11.3%	93	-0.58	2.38	289	88
Neil Wagner R 2013 · 4.02 FIP	29	SU	4.02	20.5%	7.5%	3.1%	.306	4.05	19.8%	7.5%	43	+0.03	3.11	135	86
Dalier Hinojosa R 2015 · 3.41 FIP	29	SU	3.41	20.4%	9.8%	1.4%	.283	4.30	18.7%	6.1%	24	+0.89	3.41	104	84
Bo Schultz R 2015 · 4.30 FIP	29	SU	4.30	18.3%	7.9%	3.2%	.218	3.49	15.1%	8.9%	77	-0.81	2.73	141	84
Francisco Mendoza R 2016 · 3.81 FIP	28	SU	3.81	17.9%	7.7%	2.3%	.344	—	—	—	—	—	3.13	120	83
Diego Moreno R 2016 · 3.75 FIP	29	SU	3.75	21.0%	8.2%	2.5%	.347	3.13	17.8%	11.9%	54	-0.62	2.29	187	83
Dustin Molleken R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	30	SU	3.74	20.4%	11.7%	1.6%	.287	3.90	20.6%	8.4%	77	+0.16	3.38	129	82
Kevin Gryboski R 2003 · 3.67 FIP	29	SU	3.67	16.8%	8.9%	1.6%	.295	3.92	9.4%	0.2%	82	+0.25	3.67	178	82
Jim Miller R 2012 · 4.56 FIP	30	SU	4.56	20.9%	11.8%	3.1%	.243	3.95	18.8%	14.7%	74	-0.61	3.95	140	82
Joe Nelson R 2006 · 3.91 FIP	31	SU	3.91	22.8%	10.4%	2.6%	.258	4.05	23.4%	12.8%	94	+0.14	3.08	139	81
Marc Magliaro R 2018 · 3.94 FIP	28	SU	3.94	19.6%	7.3%	2.9%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.94	125	81
Adrian Garza R 2017 · 4.47 FIP	29	SU	4.47	16.0%	7.0%	3.4%	.351	5.18	9.7%	4.1%	113	+0.71	3.94	229	81
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	80
Santiago Casilla R 2009 · 4.44 FIP	29	SU	4.44	15.0%	9.4%	2.6%	.324	3.29	22.1%	13.0%	170	-1.15	2.76	647	80
Jared Burton R 2009 · 3.51 FIP	28	SU	3.51	17.0%	6.4%	1.9%	.283	3.09	22.4%	16.3%	62	-0.42	3.09	367	80
Ryan Doolittle R 2016 · 4.38 FIP	28	SU	4.38	13.9%	7.1%	2.8%	.269	—	—	—	—	—	4.03	101	80
Tyler Sturdevant R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	29	SU	4.37	21.3%	8.5%	3.6%	.241	3.97	18.5%	11.9%	118	-0.40	3.44	149	80
Gerardo Sanchez R 2017 · 3.47 FIP	28	SU	3.47	21.6%	8.4%	2.1%	.355	3.58	20.5%	15.1%	56	+0.11	2.65	137	79
Brandon Cunniff R 2017 · 4.79 FIP	28	SU	4.79	20.1%	11.6%	3.5%	.275	6.80	13.9%	-1.9%	30	+2.01	3.89	180	79

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	65	18.2%	8.5%	1.18	4.69
Juan Gutierrez ('14)	1.4	57	19.4%	8.4%	1.04	4.49
J. C. Gutierrez ('07-'14, -0 WAR*)	1.4	57	19.8%*	8.5%*	1.19*	4.72*
Trevor Gott ('15-'23, -1 WAR*)	1.2	61	18.5%*	8.4%*	1.01*	4.85*
Bob Macdonald ('90-'96, 1 WAR*)	1.2	59	18.3%*	9.8%*	1.20*	4.32*
Gary Wayne ('89-'94, 2 WAR*)	1.2	62	19.9%*	9.4%*	1.05*	3.88*
John Morris ('66-'74, -0 WAR*)	1.2	58	18.3%*	8.2%*	1.00*	4.74*