Marlin Willis

P Northwest Arkansas Naturals

Age 29 LHP 6'4" / 190 lbs AA

Overview

AAPROSPECT

MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2022	24	AKC	27	42	4.93	3.81	30.6%	18.9%	—	K 22.6% · BB 22.3% · FIP 4.93
2023	25	A+KC	29	31	7.84	4.33	29.6%	27.7%	—	K 22.8% · BB 31.8% · FIP 5.21
2025	27	MIX3 levels	26	38	4.93	3.36	24.1%	12.9%	—	K 15.4% · BB 16.1% · FIP 4.68
2027PROJ	29	MLBKC	18	19	5.13	5.13	19.3%	13.4%	-0.1
2028PROJ31% MLB	30	MLBKC	6	6	5.16	5.23	19.4%	13.2%	-0.0

Next 2 projected WAR -0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

CompsJuan Pablo Perez (age 28) · Stephen Randolph (age 29) · Keith Hessler (age 29)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 114122vR 131

ERA5.13

FIP5.13

K%19.3%

BB%13.4%

K-BB%6.0%

Proj IP19

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 19 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4545

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2017	19	ROK MLE	AZL Royals	8	3	21	92	13	5	0	38%	2.7	9.6%	6.8%	2.8%	0.0%	3.80	3.15	—
2017	19	ROK RAW	AZL Royals	8	3	21	92	13	5	0	38%	2.7	14.1%	5.4%	8.7%	0.0%	3.80	2.58	—
2018	20	ROK MLE	Burlington Royals	11	3	39	204	32	34	5	27%	3.5	10.7%	20.8%	-10.2%	3.4%	8.38	6.72	—
2018	20	ROK RAW	Burlington Royals	11	3	39	204	32	34	5	27%	3.5	15.7%	16.7%	-1.0%	2.5%	8.38	5.76	—
2021	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	0	41	204	62	38	1	0%	1.6	23.4%	24.3%	-0.8%	0.6%	6.15	4.51	—
2021	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	0	41	204	62	38	1	0%	1.6	30.4%	18.6%	11.8%	0.5%	6.15	3.17	—
2022	24	A MLE	Columbia Fireflies	27	0	42	206	63	39	3	0%	1.6	22.6%	22.3%	0.3%	1.7%	4.93	4.93	—
2022	24	A RAW	Columbia Fireflies	27	0	42	206	63	39	3	0%	1.6	30.6%	18.9%	11.7%	1.5%	4.93	3.81	—
2023	25	A+ MLE	Quad Cities River Bandits	29	0	31	159	47	44	0	0%	1.1	22.8%	31.8%	-9.1%	0.0%	7.84	5.21	—
2023	25	A+ RAW	Quad Cities River Bandits	29	0	31	159	47	44	0	0%	1.1	29.6%	27.7%	1.9%	0.0%	7.84	4.33	—
2025	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	26	0	38	170	41	22	2	0%	1.5	15.4%	16.1%	-0.6%	1.5%	4.93	4.68	—
2025	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	26	0	38	170	41	22	2	0%	1.5	15.4%	16.1%	-0.6%	1.5%	4.93	4.68	—
2025	27	MIX RAW	3 levels	26	0	38	170	41	22	2	0%	1.5	24.1%	12.9%	11.2%	1.2%	4.93	3.36	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	29	MLB	KC	18	0	19	80	16	11	2	0%	1.1	19.3%	13.4%	6.0%	2.9%	5.13	5.13	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	30	MLB MLE	KC	19	0	20	84	16	11	3	0%	1.1	19.4%	13.2%	6.2%	3.1%	5.16	5.23	-0.2
2028	30	MLB CTX	KC	6	0	6	25	5	3	1	0%	1.0	19.4%	13.2%	6.2%	3.1%	5.16	5.23	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		6	0	6	26	5	3	1	0%	1.0	19.4%	13.2%	6.2%	3.1%	5.16	4.85	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	160	96	32	0%	1.1	19.4%	13.2%	6.2%	3.1%	5.16	4.85	-0.7
Career	—	MLE		127	6	212	1035	187	222	14	5%	1.7	18.1%	21.5%	-3.4%	1.4%	6.10	5.04	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		120	6	200	975	177	209	13	5%	1.7	18.1%	21.5%	-3.4%	1.4%	6.10	5.04	-1.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Marlin Willis (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.13	19.3%	13.4%	2.9%	—	5.23	19.4%	6.2%	20	+0.10	—	—	—
Juan Pablo Perez L 2007 · 5.32 FIP	28	SU	5.32	17.5%	14.0%	3.5%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	1.75	104	82
Stephen Randolph L 2003 · 4.83 FIP	29	SU	4.83	18.5%	14.8%	2.6%	.247	5.69	15.8%	-3.0%	82	+0.86	4.83	155	82
Keith Hessler L 2018 · 4.96 FIP	29	SU	4.96	19.8%	13.3%	3.4%	.348	—	—	—	—	—	3.31	228	79
Raul Valdes L 2010 · 4.02 FIP	32	SU	4.02	21.4%	9.9%	2.7%	.301	3.14	27.4%	22.5%	78	-0.88	2.29	160	78
Jose Meraz L 2017 · 4.34 FIP	29	SU	4.34	16.4%	10.3%	2.4%	.282	3.80	10.5%	-2.0%	30	-0.54	3.78	110	78
Andrew Barbosa L 2017 · 4.67 FIP	29	SU	4.67	20.2%	9.6%	3.8%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	2.70	175	76
Aaron Brown L 2021 · 4.13 FIP	29	SU	4.13	17.4%	12.8%	1.6%	.275	5.38	21.3%	8.8%	66	+1.25	4.04	269	74
Colt Hynes L 2013 · 4.76 FIP	28	SU	4.76	15.5%	8.3%	3.5%	.361	3.49	19.3%	12.8%	96	-1.27	3.42	169	74
Bryan Harper L 2018 · 4.63 FIP	28	SU	4.63	14.9%	13.9%	1.9%	.288	—	—	—	—	—	4.13	133	74
Braulio Lara L 2017 · 5.80 FIP	28	SU	5.80	19.8%	17.8%	3.9%	.361	—	—	—	—	—	3.96	118	73
Doug Slaten L 2008 · 4.56 FIP	28	SU	4.56	13.6%	8.8%	2.7%	.264	3.63	19.2%	10.2%	57	-0.93	3.22	139	72
Tom Martin L 2000 · 4.16 FIP	30	SU	4.16	14.7%	9.1%	2.1%	.274	4.29	21.8%	12.3%	68	+0.12	3.40	303	71
Mike Zagurski L 2012 · 4.48 FIP	29	SU	4.48	20.9%	11.7%	3.0%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	2.94	120	71
Jordan Norberto L 2015 · 4.30 FIP	28	SU	4.30	16.9%	14.1%	1.5%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.89	117	70
Randy Keisler L 2005 · 5.07 FIP	29	SW	5.07	16.4%	9.9%	3.8%	.295	5.51	6.5%	0.0%	17	+0.44	5.07	135	69
Ron Mahay L 2000 · 6.03 FIP	29	SU	6.03	16.1%	12.1%	5.0%	.353	4.58	22.4%	12.1%	81	-1.45	3.14	568	69
John Rheinecker L 2007 · 5.13 FIP	28	SW	5.13	16.7%	10.9%	3.8%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	4.14	121	69
Jimmy Reyes L 2017 · 4.92 FIP	28	SU	4.92	13.8%	8.0%	3.6%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	3.02	200	69
Luis Perez L 2015 · 4.00 FIP	30	SU	4.00	15.2%	12.6%	1.1%	.293	—	—	—	—	—	3.32	173	68
Ashur Tolliver L 2017 · 5.03 FIP	29	SU	5.03	13.8%	18.9%	1.3%	.319	—	—	—	—	—	3.49	134	68