Zach Jackson

P Las Vegas Aviators

Age 32 RHP 6'4" / 230 lbs AAA

Overview

AAARP

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2022	27	MLBOakland Athle…	54	48	3.00	2.45	33.2%	14.9%	1.2
2023	28	MIX2 levels	21	20	3.15	3.85	30.7%	11.4%	0.2	K 28.7% · BB 12.5% · FIP 3.01
2024	29	MIX3 levels	40	39	7.55	5.97	27.0%	24.0%	—	K 21.8% · BB 22.2% · FIP 5.50
2027PROJ	32	MLBOAK	51	54	4.43	4.51	25.5%	11.7%	0.0
2028PROJ37% MLB	33	MLBOAK	17	18	4.62	4.77	24.4%	11.9%	-0.0
2029PROJ32% MLB	34	MLBOAK	14	15	4.86	5.04	23.4%	12.2%	-0.1

Last 3 seasons WAR 1.4 · Next 3 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2023

K%85

xwOBA vs71

Whiff%65

FB Velo30

CompsJoe Nelson (age 31) · Hirokazu Sawamura (age 33) · Mike Broadway (age 31)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 119111vR 103

ERA4.43

FIP4.51

K%25.5%

BB%11.7%

K-BB%13.8%

Proj IP54

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 54 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF6565

CTRL2020

CMD5555

K†6060

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p3093.1

Whiff%

p6527.7%

p8528.7%

xwOBA vs

p710.292

FB+2.1

SL-1.8

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2016	21	ROK MLE	GCL Blue Jays	1	0	1	3	0	0	0	0%	1.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.00	3.10	—
2016	21	ROK RAW	GCL Blue Jays	1	0	1	3	0	0	0	0%	1.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.00	3.10	—
2017	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	42	0	51	211	68	26	2	0%	1.2	24.5%	14.3%	10.2%	1.4%	2.47	3.60	—
2017	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	42	0	51	211	68	26	2	0%	1.2	32.2%	12.3%	19.9%	0.9%	2.47	2.47	—
2018	23	AA MLE	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	43	0	62	263	75	48	2	0%	1.4	23.1%	20.1%	3.0%	1.0%	2.47	4.22	—
2018	23	AA RAW	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	43	0	62	263	75	48	2	0%	1.4	28.5%	18.3%	10.3%	0.8%	2.47	3.42	—
2019	24	AAA MLE	Buffalo Bisons	46	0	68	288	68	34	10	0%	1.5	20.8%	12.4%	8.4%	3.8%	3.97	5.01	—
2019	24	AAA RAW	Buffalo Bisons	46	0	68	288	68	34	10	0%	1.5	23.6%	11.8%	11.8%	3.5%	3.97	4.51	—
2021	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	0	28	114	47	13	1	0%	1.1	34.2%	12.3%	21.9%	1.0%	2.57	2.33	—
2021	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	0	28	114	47	13	1	0%	1.1	41.2%	11.4%	29.8%	0.9%	2.57	1.60	—
2022	27	MLB MLE	Oakland Athletics	54	0	48	202	67	30	1	0%	0.9	33.2%	14.9%	18.3%	0.5%	3.00	2.48	+1.2
2022	27	MLB RAW	Oakland Athletics	54	0	48	202	67	30	1	0%	0.9	33.2%	14.9%	18.3%	0.5%	3.00	2.45	+1.2
2023	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	0	20	88	27	10	3	0%	1.0	28.7%	12.5%	16.2%	1.4%	3.15	3.01	+0.4
2023	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	0	20	88	27	10	3	0%	1.0	30.7%	11.4%	19.3%	3.4%	3.15	3.85	+0.2
2024	29	MIX MLE	3 levels	40	0	39	196	53	47	6	0%	1.0	21.8%	22.2%	-0.5%	2.6%	7.55	5.50	—
2024	29	MIX MLE	3 levels	40	0	39	196	53	47	6	0%	1.0	21.8%	22.2%	-0.5%	2.6%	7.55	5.50	—
2024	29	MIX RAW	3 levels	40	0	39	196	53	47	6	0%	1.0	27.0%	24.0%	3.1%	3.1%	7.55	5.97	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			73	0	66	282	90	40	2	0%	0.9	31.9%	14.2%	17.7%	0.7%	2.86	2.58	+1.6
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	32	MLB	OAK	51	0	54	228	58	27	7	0%	1.1	25.5%	11.7%	13.8%	3.1%	4.43	4.51	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	33	MLB MLE	OAK	48	0	50	211	51	25	7	0%	1.0	24.4%	11.9%	12.6%	3.4%	4.62	4.77	-0.1
2029	34	MLB MLE	OAK	43	0	45	192	45	23	7	0%	1.1	23.4%	12.2%	11.3%	3.6%	4.86	5.04	-0.3
2030	35	MLB MLE	OAK	39	0	41	172	39	22	7	0%	1.0	22.5%	12.6%	9.9%	3.9%	5.13	5.34	-0.4
2028	33	MLB CTX	OAK	17	0	18	76	19	9	3	0%	1.1	24.4%	11.9%	12.6%	3.4%	4.62	4.77	-0.0
2029	34	MLB CTX	OAK	14	0	15	63	15	8	2	0%	1.1	23.4%	12.2%	11.3%	3.6%	4.86	5.04	-0.1
2030	35	MLB CTX	OAK	10	0	11	46	10	6	2	0%	1.1	22.5%	12.6%	9.9%	3.9%	5.13	5.34	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		115	0	110	469	134	63	9	0%	1.0	28.6%	13.4%	15.2%	1.9%	3.65	3.40	+1.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		209	0	200	850	243	114	16	0%	1.0	28.6%	13.4%	15.2%	1.9%	3.65	3.40	+2.7
Career	—	MLE		272	0	317	1365	346	217	25	0%	1.2	25.4%	15.9%	9.4%	1.8%	3.55	3.98	+0.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		171	0	200	860	218	137	16	0%	1.2	25.4%	15.9%	9.4%	1.8%	3.55	3.98	+0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Zach Jackson (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.51	25.5%	11.7%	3.1%	—	5.03	23.5%	11.3%	136	+0.52	—	—	—
Joe Nelson R 2006 · 3.91 FIP	31	SU	3.91	22.8%	10.4%	2.6%	.258	4.05	23.4%	12.8%	94	+0.14	3.08	139	88
Hirokazu Sawamura R 2021 · 4.48 FIP	33	SU	4.48	26.2%	11.2%	4.0%	.263	4.02	18.1%	6.8%	51	-0.46	4.02	104	85
Mike Broadway R 2018 · 4.65 FIP	31	SU	4.65	23.0%	10.6%	3.9%	.282	—	—	—	—	—	1.74	195	85
Jose Manuel Lopez R 2017 · 3.61 FIP	32	SU	3.61	20.4%	10.0%	1.8%	.331	6.14	17.9%	3.7%	41	+2.53	3.50	170	81
Jon Edwards R 2019 · 4.43 FIP	31	SU	4.43	25.1%	11.6%	3.6%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	2.40	132	80
Kazuhiro Sasaki R 2000 · 3.93 FIP	32	SU	3.93	29.4%	9.8%	3.8%	.212	2.88	24.9%	19.3%	161	-1.05	2.76	223	79
Dan Winkler R 2022 · 3.87 FIP	32	SU	3.87	24.4%	14.0%	1.9%	.281	—	—	—	—	—	2.40	231	79
Dale Thayer R 2013 · 3.62 FIP	32	SU	3.62	23.7%	7.4%	2.9%	.287	3.85	20.6%	15.0%	103	+0.23	2.75	239	78
Arcenio Leon R 2019 · 3.61 FIP	32	SU	3.61	21.4%	8.1%	2.4%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	3.00	115	78
James Hoyt R 2019 · 3.45 FIP	32	SU	3.45	22.2%	9.9%	1.8%	.355	5.63	22.1%	10.4%	50	+2.18	1.61	312	77
Neil Wagner R 2016 · 4.05 FIP	32	SU	4.05	19.8%	12.3%	1.9%	.360	3.11	20.7%	12.1%	54	-0.94	3.11	135	76
Jumbo Diaz R 2016 · 3.85 FIP	32	SU	3.85	22.3%	9.2%	2.7%	.247	3.28	23.0%	13.8%	141	-0.57	2.80	319	76
Leonel Campos R 2017 · 3.70 FIP	30	SU	3.70	25.7%	11.8%	2.3%	.241	—	—	—	—	—	2.62	168	76
Sergio Santos R 2015 · 4.17 FIP	32	SU	4.17	24.7%	8.2%	3.9%	.283	—	—	—	—	—	1.36	178	76
Jeff Fulchino R 2011 · 4.44 FIP	31	SU	4.44	20.4%	11.1%	3.0%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	3.36	178	74
Mark Serrano R 2017 · 3.56 FIP	31	SU	3.56	21.9%	6.4%	2.7%	.240	5.25	20.2%	12.3%	42	+1.69	3.16	120	74
Grant Sides R 2019 · 3.31 FIP	30	SU	3.31	21.7%	9.8%	1.5%	.267	—	—	—	—	—	3.31	159	73
Brian Sanches R 2011 · 4.35 FIP	32	SU	4.35	19.6%	11.1%	2.7%	.250	—	—	—	—	—	3.39	229	72
Deolis Guerra R 2021 · 3.89 FIP	32	SU	3.89	23.0%	7.4%	3.3%	.251	—	—	—	—	—	2.53	364	72
Rafael Martín R 2016 · 4.74 FIP	32	SU	4.74	20.5%	10.7%	3.7%	.265	3.96	21.3%	15.8%	110	-0.78	2.94	227	72

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.3	51	26.1%	12.8%	1.07	4.25
Chad Fox ('09)	1.1	57	25.8%	13.2%	0.87	3.79
Rex Brothers ('21)	1.6	54	27.6%	13.5%	0.98	4.08
Al Reyes ('08)	2.1	54	23.2%	10.7%	1.11	3.84
Marshall Bridges ('59-'65, 2 WAR*)	1.7	49	26.7%*	12.3%*	0.88*	4.15*
Jim Hughes ('52-'57, 2 WAR*)	1.5	74	22.2%*	11.1%*	1.05*	3.99*
Ed Vosberg ('86-'02, 1 WAR*)	1.2	47	21.0%*	9.6%*	0.86*	4.06*