Grant Gavin

P Louisville Bats

Age 32 RHP 6'2" / 185 lbs AAA

Overview

AAAPROSPECT

MLB%10%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2021	26	AAAKC	48	0	74	4.36	3.88	29.1%	10.4%	—	K 25.6% · BB 11.0% · FIP 4.37
2022	27	MIX2 levels	46	1	56	4.82	4.12	24.1%	13.4%	—	K 20.8% · BB 14.2% · FIP 4.45
2024	29	MIX2 levels	12	6	36	4.50	3.68	19.7%	12.1%	—	K 14.0% · BB 13.8% · FIP 4.60
2027PROJ	32	MLBCIN	13	0	14	4.74	4.74	20.1%	10.5%	-0.0
2028PROJ37% MLB	33	MLBCIN	7	0	7	4.85	4.95	19.9%	10.9%	-0.0

Next 2 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

CompsJoe Nelson (age 31) · Arcenio Leon (age 32) · Jose Manuel Lopez (age 32)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 123115vR 107

ERA4.74

FIP4.74

K%20.1%

BB%10.5%

K-BB%9.5%

Proj IP14

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 14 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2016	21	ROK MLE	AZL Royals	13	4	49	198	47	5	0	31%	3.8	16.1%	3.2%	13.0%	0.0%	2.01	2.14	—
2016	21	ROK RAW	AZL Royals	13	4	49	198	47	5	0	31%	3.8	23.7%	2.5%	21.2%	0.0%	2.01	1.50	—
2017	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	36	0	65	262	77	24	2	0%	1.8	22.1%	10.7%	11.4%	1.1%	1.65	3.17	—
2017	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	36	0	65	262	77	24	2	0%	1.8	29.4%	9.2%	20.2%	0.8%	1.65	2.24	—
2018	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	34	0	54	221	61	25	7	0%	1.6	21.8%	12.6%	9.1%	4.4%	3.19	5.25	—
2018	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	34	0	54	221	61	25	7	0%	1.6	27.6%	11.3%	16.3%	3.2%	3.19	3.92	—
2019	24	AA MLE	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	41	0	52	231	73	24	6	0%	1.3	25.6%	11.4%	14.2%	3.5%	3.61	4.29	—
2019	24	AA RAW	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	41	0	52	231	73	24	6	0%	1.3	31.6%	10.4%	21.2%	2.6%	3.61	3.18	—
2021	26	AAA MLE	Omaha Storm Chasers	48	0	74	316	92	33	11	0%	1.5	25.6%	11.0%	14.7%	3.7%	4.36	4.37	—
2021	26	AAA RAW	Omaha Storm Chasers	48	0	74	316	92	33	11	0%	1.5	29.1%	10.4%	18.7%	3.5%	4.36	3.88	—
2022	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	46	1	56	261	63	35	6	2%	1.2	20.8%	14.2%	6.6%	2.4%	4.82	4.45	—
2022	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	46	1	56	261	63	35	6	2%	1.2	24.1%	13.4%	10.7%	2.3%	4.82	4.12	—
2024	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	12	6	36	157	31	19	2	50%	3.0	14.0%	13.8%	0.1%	1.7%	4.50	4.60	—
2024	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	12	6	36	157	31	19	2	50%	3.0	14.0%	13.8%	0.1%	1.7%	4.50	4.60	—
2024	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	12	6	36	157	31	19	2	50%	3.0	19.7%	12.1%	7.6%	1.3%	4.50	3.68	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	32	MLB	CIN	13	0	14	59	12	6	2	0%	1.1	20.1%	10.5%	9.5%	3.0%	4.74	4.74	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	33	MLB MLE	CIN	19	0	20	84	17	9	3	0%	1.1	19.9%	10.9%	9.0%	3.2%	4.85	4.95	-0.1
2028	33	MLB CTX	CIN	7	0	7	30	6	3	1	0%	1.0	19.9%	10.9%	9.0%	3.2%	4.85	4.95	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		7	0	7	31	6	3	1	0%	1.1	19.9%	10.9%	9.0%	3.2%	4.85	4.57	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	163	82	27	0%	1.1	19.9%	10.9%	9.0%	3.2%	4.85	4.57	-0.0
Career	—	MLE		230	11	387	1646	355	182	41	5%	1.7	21.5%	11.1%	10.5%	2.5%	3.42	4.05	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		119	6	200	851	183	94	21	5%	1.7	21.5%	11.1%	10.5%	2.5%	3.42	4.05	-0.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Grant Gavin (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.74	20.1%	10.5%	3.0%	—	4.95	19.9%	9.0%	20	+0.21	—	—	—
Joe Nelson R 2006 · 3.91 FIP	31	SU	3.91	22.8%	10.4%	2.6%	.258	4.05	23.4%	12.8%	94	+0.14	3.08	139	83
Arcenio Leon R 2019 · 3.61 FIP	32	SU	3.61	21.4%	8.1%	2.4%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	3.00	115	82
Jose Manuel Lopez R 2017 · 3.61 FIP	32	SU	3.61	20.4%	10.0%	1.8%	.331	6.14	17.9%	3.7%	41	+2.53	3.50	170	81
Neil Wagner R 2016 · 4.05 FIP	32	SU	4.05	19.8%	12.3%	1.9%	.360	3.11	20.7%	12.1%	54	-0.94	3.11	135	81
Angel Castro R 2015 · 4.50 FIP	32	SU	4.50	15.9%	8.0%	3.1%	.268	4.28	13.6%	5.5%	231	-0.22	3.51	292	80
Miguel Mejia R 2019 · 4.41 FIP	31	SU	4.41	15.7%	10.7%	2.3%	.341	—	—	—	—	—	3.37	108	79
Mike Broadway R 2018 · 4.65 FIP	31	SU	4.65	23.0%	10.6%	3.9%	.282	—	—	—	—	—	1.74	195	79
Scott Atchison R 2007 · 4.55 FIP	31	SU	4.55	19.1%	7.6%	3.8%	.297	4.59	16.2%	9.5%	60	+0.04	2.52	340	78
Mike Buddie R 2002 · 4.26 FIP	31	SU	4.26	15.1%	7.6%	2.7%	.297	—	—	—	—	—	3.76	123	78
Jeff Fulchino R 2011 · 4.44 FIP	31	SU	4.44	20.4%	11.1%	3.0%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	3.36	178	76
Jason Urquidez R 2015 · 3.59 FIP	32	SU	3.59	15.6%	9.3%	1.1%	.386	1.81	25.5%	20.7%	90	-1.78	1.25	123	76
Jim Henderson R 2015 · 5.27 FIP	32	SU	5.27	16.7%	11.9%	3.8%	.307	4.55	25.8%	16.8%	35	-0.72	1.86	167	75
Ryan Kelly R 2019 · 4.33 FIP	31	SU	4.33	14.7%	7.2%	2.8%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	2.49	131	75
Rudy Gonzalez R 2015 · 4.52 FIP	34	SW	4.52	13.5%	9.6%	2.4%	.347	3.84	14.0%	6.5%	79	-0.68	3.31	119	75
Brian Sanches R 2011 · 4.35 FIP	32	SU	4.35	19.6%	11.1%	2.7%	.250	—	—	—	—	—	3.39	229	75
A.J. Schugel R 2021 · 4.82 FIP	32	SU	4.82	16.6%	12.3%	2.9%	.351	—	—	—	—	—	2.80	299	75
Felipe Arredondo R 2019 · 4.65 FIP	32	SU	4.65	16.2%	7.1%	3.7%	.272	—	—	—	—	—	3.92	337	74
Juan Sandoval R 2015 · 3.82 FIP	34	SU	3.82	15.4%	6.0%	2.3%	.294	3.33	17.4%	8.8%	116	-0.49	3.24	225	74
Sergio Santos R 2015 · 4.17 FIP	32	SU	4.17	24.7%	8.2%	3.9%	.283	—	—	—	—	—	1.36	178	74
Kane Davis R 2007 · 4.82 FIP	32	SU	4.82	16.9%	10.2%	3.4%	.366	—	—	—	—	—	3.40	125	74