Jose Espada

P Norfolk Tides

Age 30 RHP 6'0" / 185 lbs AAA

Overview

AAARPROOKIE

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	26	MIX3 levels	36	9	84	2.77	3.16	31.5%	13.0%	1.4	K 25.8% · BB 13.2% · FIP 4.07
2025	28	MIX3 levels	46	0	57	3.95	3.22	37.3%	12.9%	0.9	K 31.0% · BB 12.8% · FIP 4.12
2026	29	MIX3 levels	43	0	51	3.00	4.57	22.4%	12.6%	-0.0	K 19.9% · BB 11.5% · FIP 4.58
2027PROJ	30	MLBBAL	28	0	29	4.72	4.72	23.2%	11.6%	-0.1
2028PROJ37% MLB	31	MLBBAL	10	0	10	4.80	4.88	22.8%	11.7%	-0.0

Last 3 seasons WAR 2.3 · Next 2 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 97%

CompsJim Miller (age 30) · Joe Nelson (age 31) · Wirfin Obispo (age 30)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 123115vR 107

ERA4.72

FIP4.72

K%23.2%

BB%11.6%

K-BB%11.6%

Proj IP29

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 29 IP

Grades · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

SL (21%)

FB (48%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2015	18	ROK MLE	GCL Blue Jays	10	7	34	136	31	8	3	70%	3.4	15.5%	7.4%	8.1%	3.1%	3.41	4.42	—
2015	18	ROK RAW	GCL Blue Jays	10	7	34	136	31	8	3	70%	3.4	22.8%	5.9%	16.9%	2.2%	3.41	3.13	—
2016	19	ROK MLE	Bluefield Blue Jays	12	10	53	227	32	11	6	83%	4.4	9.6%	6.1%	3.5%	3.7%	4.92	5.09	—
2016	19	ROK RAW	Bluefield Blue Jays	12	10	53	227	32	11	6	83%	4.4	14.1%	4.8%	9.3%	2.6%	4.92	3.99	—
2019	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	10	2	12	45	13	3	2	20%	1.2	28.9%	6.7%	22.2%	4.4%	3.09	3.94	—
2019	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	10	2	12	45	13	3	2	20%	1.2	28.9%	6.7%	22.2%	4.4%	3.09	3.87	—
2021	24	A+ MLE	Greenville Drive	28	2	44	179	53	16	9	7%	1.6	22.8%	10.3%	12.5%	7.0%	3.09	6.35	—
2021	24	A+ RAW	Greenville Drive	28	2	44	179	53	16	9	7%	1.6	29.6%	8.9%	20.7%	5.0%	3.09	4.45	—
2022	25	A+ MLE	Fort Wayne TinCaps	11	7	40	171	58	18	7	64%	3.6	26.1%	12.1%	14.0%	5.6%	4.05	5.48	—
2022	25	A+ RAW	Fort Wayne TinCaps	11	7	40	171	58	18	7	64%	3.6	33.9%	10.5%	23.4%	4.1%	4.05	3.83	—
2023	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	36	9	84	355	112	46	7	25%	2.3	25.8%	13.2%	12.6%	2.7%	2.77	4.07	+0.5
2023	26	MIX RAW	3 levels	36	9	84	355	112	46	7	25%	2.3	31.5%	13.0%	18.6%	2.0%	2.77	3.16	+1.4
2025	28	MIX MLE	3 levels	46	0	57	233	87	30	7	0%	1.2	31.0%	12.8%	18.3%	3.7%	3.95	4.12	+0.3
2025	28	MIX MLE	3 levels	46	0	57	233	87	30	7	0%	1.2	31.0%	12.8%	18.3%	3.7%	3.95	4.12	+0.3
2025	28	MIX RAW	3 levels	46	0	57	233	87	30	7	0%	1.2	37.3%	12.9%	24.5%	3.0%	3.95	3.22	+0.9
2026	29	MIX MLE	3 levels	43	0	51	223	50	28	7	0%	1.2	19.9%	11.5%	8.4%	3.1%	3.00	4.58	-0.0
2026	29	MIX MLE	3 levels	43	0	51	223	50	28	7	0%	1.2	19.9%	11.5%	8.4%	3.1%	3.00	4.58	-0.0
2026	29	MIX RAW	3 levels	43	0	51	223	50	28	7	0%	1.2	22.4%	12.6%	9.9%	3.1%	3.00	4.57	-0.0
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			3	0	5	18	6	2	0	0%	1.7	33.3%	11.1%	22.2%	0.0%	0.00	1.90	+0.2
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	30	MLB	BAL	28	0	29	122	28	14	4	0%	1.0	23.2%	11.6%	11.6%	3.2%	4.72	4.72	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	31	MLB MLE	BAL	26	0	27	114	26	13	4	0%	1.0	22.8%	11.7%	11.2%	3.4%	4.80	4.88	-0.1
2028	31	MLB CTX	BAL	10	0	10	42	10	5	1	0%	1.0	22.8%	11.7%	11.2%	3.4%	4.80	4.88	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		12	0	15	60	16	7	1	0%	1.2	26.0%	11.5%	14.5%	2.4%	3.20	3.66	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		167	0	200	803	214	94	13	0%	1.2	26.0%	11.5%	14.5%	2.4%	3.20	3.66	+2.1
Career	—	MLE		196	37	375	1569	350	168	62	19%	1.9	22.3%	10.7%	11.6%	3.9%	3.53	4.74	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		105	20	200	837	186	90	33	19%	1.9	22.3%	10.7%	11.6%	3.9%	3.53	4.74	+0.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jose Espada (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.72	23.2%	11.6%	3.2%	—	4.88	22.8%	11.2%	27	+0.16	—	—	—
Jim Miller R 2012 · 4.56 FIP	30	SU	4.56	20.9%	11.8%	3.1%	.243	3.95	18.8%	14.7%	74	-0.61	3.95	140	78
Joe Nelson R 2006 · 3.91 FIP	31	SU	3.91	22.8%	10.4%	2.6%	.258	4.05	23.4%	12.8%	94	+0.14	3.08	139	78
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	78
Dustin Molleken R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	30	SU	3.74	20.4%	11.7%	1.6%	.287	3.90	20.6%	8.4%	77	+0.16	3.38	129	76
Neil Wagner R 2013 · 4.02 FIP	29	SU	4.02	20.5%	7.5%	3.1%	.306	4.05	19.8%	7.5%	43	+0.03	3.11	135	75
Erik Davis R 2017 · 4.25 FIP	30	SU	4.25	22.2%	11.1%	3.0%	.349	3.52	17.4%	8.5%	65	-0.73	3.05	227	72
Scott Atchison R 2007 · 4.55 FIP	31	SU	4.55	19.1%	7.6%	3.8%	.297	4.59	16.2%	9.5%	60	+0.04	2.52	340	72
Esteban Haro R 2016 · 4.55 FIP	30	SU	4.55	17.1%	10.2%	2.9%	.338	3.83	11.6%	6.3%	75	-0.72	3.76	164	70
Mike Broadway R 2017 · 4.73 FIP	30	SU	4.73	18.3%	10.2%	3.4%	.245	4.65	23.0%	12.4%	49	-0.08	1.74	195	70
Hirokazu Sawamura R 2021 · 4.48 FIP	33	SU	4.48	26.2%	11.2%	4.0%	.263	4.02	18.1%	6.8%	51	-0.46	4.02	104	70
Andrew Robinson R 2017 · 4.32 FIP	29	SU	4.32	23.4%	8.8%	3.8%	.245	—	—	—	—	—	3.19	160	69
Jeremy Fikac R 2004 · 4.91 FIP	29	SU	4.91	19.6%	8.0%	4.5%	.276	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	136	69
Leonel Campos R 2017 · 3.70 FIP	30	SU	3.70	25.7%	11.8%	2.3%	.241	—	—	—	—	—	2.62	168	69
Angel Castro R 2015 · 4.50 FIP	32	SU	4.50	15.9%	8.0%	3.1%	.268	4.28	13.6%	5.5%	231	-0.22	3.51	292	69
Cody Hall R 2018 · 3.92 FIP	30	SU	3.92	25.9%	17.5%	1.5%	.244	—	—	—	—	—	3.51	134	68
Jose Manuel Lopez R 2015 · 5.21 FIP	30	SU	5.21	18.6%	7.6%	4.9%	.373	3.56	18.5%	9.3%	93	-1.65	3.50	170	68
Scott Dohmann R 2008 · 4.38 FIP	30	SU	4.38	18.2%	9.1%	3.0%	.348	—	—	—	—	—	4.28	173	68
Marc Magliaro R 2018 · 3.94 FIP	28	SU	3.94	19.6%	7.3%	2.9%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.94	125	67
Dalier Hinojosa R 2016 · 4.30 FIP	30	SU	4.30	18.7%	12.6%	2.2%	.329	—	—	—	—	—	3.41	104	67
Jason Urquidez R 2015 · 3.59 FIP	32	SU	3.59	15.6%	9.3%	1.1%	.386	1.81	25.5%	20.7%	90	-1.78	1.25	123	67

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	31	23.7%	11.6%	1.17	4.37
José Cisnero ('24)	1.4	46	24.0%	11.3%	1.01	4.16
Manny Acosta ('12)	1.2	41	20.5%	10.9%	1.09	3.99
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*
Yency Almonte ('24)	1.1	45	22.5%	9.9%	1.13	4.44
Mac Scarce ('72-'78, 1 WAR*)	1.0	52	25.9%*	12.4%*	1.27*	4.17*
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*