Garvin Alston

P Rochester Red Wings

Age 30 LHP 6'4" / 175 lbs AAA

Overview

AAAPROSPECT

MLB%10%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	26	AAWSH	44	1	59	4.91	3.95	17.1%	9.5%	—	K 13.9% · BB 10.5% · FIP 4.38
2024	27	MIX2 levels	44	0	60	4.18	3.53	22.8%	12.0%	—	K 18.8% · BB 12.4% · FIP 4.01
2025	28	AAAWSH	7	0	11	7.36	4.28	11.9%	15.3%	—	K 10.2% · BB 13.7% · FIP 3.98
2027PROJ	30	MLBWSH	13	0	14	4.95	4.95	17.9%	11.5%	-0.1
2028PROJ37% MLB	31	MLBWSH	7	0	7	5.01	5.09	18.0%	11.6%	-0.0

Next 2 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

CompsJose Meraz (age 29) · Juan Pablo Perez (age 28) · Brian Shouse (age 33)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 111119vR 127

ERA4.95

FIP4.95

K%17.9%

BB%11.5%

K-BB%6.4%

Proj IP14

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 14 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4045

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2019	22	ROK MLE	ACL White Sox	13	0	18	76	22	4	2	0%	1.4	19.7%	6.6%	13.1%	3.7%	3.00	4.29	—
2019	22	ROK RAW	ACL White Sox	13	0	18	76	22	4	2	0%	1.4	28.9%	5.3%	23.7%	2.6%	3.00	2.77	—
2021	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	0	44	208	42	27	4	0%	1.6	14.4%	15.5%	-1.1%	2.7%	6.60	5.35	—
2021	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	0	44	208	42	27	4	0%	1.6	20.2%	13.0%	7.2%	1.9%	6.60	4.22	—
2022	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	0	47	187	43	18	3	0%	1.4	18.5%	11.4%	7.2%	2.1%	2.51	4.11	—
2022	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	33	0	47	187	43	18	3	0%	1.4	23.0%	9.6%	13.4%	1.6%	2.51	3.25	—
2023	26	AA MLE	Harrisburg Senators	44	1	59	263	45	25	5	2%	1.3	13.9%	10.5%	3.4%	2.0%	4.91	4.38	—
2023	26	AA RAW	Harrisburg Senators	44	1	59	263	45	25	5	2%	1.3	17.1%	9.5%	7.6%	1.9%	4.91	3.95	—
2024	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	44	0	60	267	61	32	4	0%	1.4	18.8%	12.4%	6.5%	1.7%	4.18	4.01	—
2024	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	44	0	60	267	61	32	4	0%	1.4	18.8%	12.4%	6.5%	1.7%	4.18	4.01	—
2024	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	44	0	60	267	61	32	4	0%	1.4	22.8%	12.0%	10.9%	1.5%	4.18	3.53	—
2025	28	AAA MLE	Rochester Red Wings	7	0	11	59	7	9	0	0%	1.6	10.2%	13.7%	-3.5%	0.0%	7.36	3.98	—
2025	28	AAA MLE	Rochester Red Wings	7	0	11	59	7	9	0	0%	1.6	10.2%	13.7%	-3.5%	0.0%	7.36	3.98	—
2025	28	AAA RAW	Rochester Red Wings	7	0	11	59	7	9	0	0%	1.6	11.9%	15.3%	-3.4%	0.0%	7.36	4.28	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	30	MLB	WSH	13	0	14	59	11	7	2	0%	1.1	17.9%	11.5%	6.4%	2.8%	4.95	4.95	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	31	MLB MLE	WSH	19	0	20	84	15	10	3	0%	1.1	18.0%	11.6%	6.4%	3.0%	5.01	5.09	-0.1
2028	31	MLB CTX	WSH	7	0	7	30	5	3	1	0%	1.0	18.0%	11.6%	6.4%	3.0%	5.01	5.09	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		7	0	7	31	6	4	1	0%	1.1	18.0%	11.6%	6.4%	3.0%	5.01	4.71	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	163	109	27	0%	1.1	18.0%	11.6%	6.4%	3.0%	5.01	4.71	-0.4
Career	—	MLE		168	1	238	1060	172	127	22	1%	1.4	16.3%	12.0%	4.3%	2.1%	4.53	4.40	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		141	1	200	890	145	107	19	1%	1.4	16.3%	12.0%	4.3%	2.1%	4.53	4.40	-1.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Garvin Alston (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.95	17.9%	11.5%	2.8%	—	5.09	18.0%	6.5%	20	+0.14	—	—	—
Jose Meraz L 2017 · 4.34 FIP	29	SU	4.34	16.4%	10.3%	2.4%	.282	3.80	10.5%	-2.0%	30	-0.54	3.78	110	83
Juan Pablo Perez L 2007 · 5.32 FIP	28	SU	5.32	17.5%	14.0%	3.5%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	1.75	104	82
Brian Shouse L 2002 · 5.54 FIP	33	SU	5.54	15.5%	11.3%	4.2%	.245	3.31	16.3%	10.7%	159	-2.23	2.32	339	82
Raul Valdes L 2010 · 4.02 FIP	32	SU	4.02	21.4%	9.9%	2.7%	.301	3.14	27.4%	22.5%	78	-0.88	2.29	160	80
Kelly Wunsch L 2002 · 4.60 FIP	30	SU	4.60	15.9%	13.0%	2.2%	.242	3.54	20.8%	8.3%	60	-1.06	3.36	175	78
Jack Taschner L 2008 · 4.09 FIP	30	SU	4.09	17.2%	9.7%	2.2%	.323	4.73	15.2%	3.0%	49	+0.64	3.14	189	77
Tom Martin L 2000 · 4.16 FIP	30	SU	4.16	14.7%	9.1%	2.1%	.274	4.29	21.8%	12.3%	68	+0.12	3.40	303	75
Keith Hessler L 2018 · 4.96 FIP	29	SU	4.96	19.8%	13.3%	3.4%	.348	—	—	—	—	—	3.31	228	75
Andrew Barbosa L 2017 · 4.67 FIP	29	SU	4.67	20.2%	9.6%	3.8%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	2.70	175	73
Josh Edgin L 2017 · 4.02 FIP	30	SU	4.02	16.3%	10.2%	1.8%	.303	3.63	29.2%	20.0%	43	-0.39	2.62	195	72
Buddy Baumann L 2018 · 4.87 FIP	30	SU	4.87	20.5%	11.9%	3.6%	.258	—	—	—	—	—	2.92	155	72
Ryan O'Rourke L 2019 · 4.08 FIP	31	SU	4.08	22.1%	14.3%	1.9%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	3.05	145	72
Bryan Harper L 2018 · 4.63 FIP	28	SU	4.63	14.9%	13.9%	1.9%	.288	—	—	—	—	—	4.13	133	72
Kevin Chapman L 2018 · 5.66 FIP	30	SU	5.66	17.1%	15.7%	3.7%	.238	—	—	—	—	—	3.01	194	71
Bobby Jones L 2002 · 5.24 FIP	30	SU	5.24	14.3%	12.7%	3.2%	.295	—	—	—	—	—	4.01	321	70
Dan Runzler L 2015 · 3.78 FIP	30	SU	3.78	19.0%	13.1%	1.2%	.383	4.07	16.5%	4.0%	63	+0.29	2.84	187	70
Valerio De Los Santos L 2003 · 4.97 FIP	30	SU	4.97	17.1%	11.0%	3.5%	.237	4.47	16.3%	5.7%	34	-0.50	3.40	239	70
James Jones L 2019 · 4.28 FIP	30	SU	4.28	21.9%	13.0%	2.5%	.230	4.65	23.9%	8.8%	35	+0.37	3.58	127	70
Jimmy Reyes L 2017 · 4.92 FIP	28	SU	4.92	13.8%	8.0%	3.6%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	3.02	200	69
Mike Zagurski L 2012 · 4.48 FIP	29	SU	4.48	20.9%	11.7%	3.0%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	2.94	120	69