Scott Effross

P Tacoma Rainiers

Age 33 RHP 6'2" / 202 lbs AAA

Overview

AAARP

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	30	MIX3 levels	32	0	39	2.79	3.13	22.5%	6.6%	0.7	K 19.0% · BB 5.7% · FIP 3.13
2025	31	MIX4 levels	43	1	45	6.65	2.90	16.1%	5.2%	0.9	K 13.6% · BB 4.8% · FIP 3.14
2026	32	MIX2 levels	40	1	54	4.33	4.53	15.1%	6.3%	—	K 12.3% · BB 5.5% · FIP 4.84
2027PROJ	33	MLBSEA	58	0	61	4.30	4.48	13.2%	4.4%	0.0
2028PROJ6% MLB	34	MLBSEA	3	0	3	4.58	4.77	13.3%	5.4%	-0.0
2029PROJ1% MLB	35	MLBSEA	1	0	1	4.86	5.07	13.1%	6.2%	-0.0

Last 3 seasons WAR 1.5 · Next 3 projected WAR 0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2025

xwOBA vs24

FB Velo10

Whiff%10

K%10

CompsTyler Sturdevant (age 31) · Juan Sandoval (age 34) · Hector Navarro (age 35)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 118110vR 102

ERA4.30

FIP4.48

K%13.2%

BB%4.4%

K-BB%8.8%

Proj IP61

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 61 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL6060

CMD6060

K†3030

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1089.4

Whiff%

p1015.9%

p1011.8%

xwOBA vs

p240.343

SI (50%)

CH-1.0 (12%)

SL-1.6 (33%)

FB-1.6 (54%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2015	21	ROK MLE	AZL Cubs	5	0	7	25	6	0	1	0%	1.3	24.0%	0.0%	24.0%	4.0%	4.05	3.27	—
2015	21	ROK RAW	AZL Cubs	5	0	7	25	6	0	1	0%	1.3	24.0%	0.0%	24.0%	4.0%	4.05	3.25	—
2016	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	41	0	64	271	59	14	1	0%	1.6	16.2%	6.1%	10.1%	0.5%	3.23	2.77	—
2016	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	41	0	64	271	59	14	1	0%	1.6	21.8%	5.2%	16.6%	0.4%	3.23	2.12	—
2017	23	A+ MLE	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	42	2	79	350	74	25	1	5%	1.9	16.3%	8.2%	8.1%	0.4%	3.40	2.98	—
2017	23	A+ RAW	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	42	2	79	350	74	25	1	5%	1.9	21.1%	7.1%	14.0%	0.3%	3.40	2.34	—
2018	24	AA MLE	Tennessee Smokies	44	0	63	288	60	19	7	0%	1.4	16.9%	7.3%	9.6%	3.1%	5.97	4.29	—
2018	24	AA RAW	Tennessee Smokies	44	0	63	288	60	19	7	0%	1.4	20.8%	6.6%	14.2%	2.4%	5.97	3.54	—
2019	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	28	1	52	216	33	9	3	4%	1.9	11.7%	4.9%	6.8%	1.6%	4.33	3.58	—
2019	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	28	1	52	216	33	9	3	4%	1.9	15.3%	4.2%	11.1%	1.4%	4.33	3.10	—
2021	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	45	2	75	297	84	16	10	4%	1.7	25.1%	5.7%	19.4%	3.5%	3.46	3.64	+0.8
2021	27	MIX RAW	3 levels	45	2	75	297	84	16	10	4%	1.7	28.3%	5.4%	22.9%	3.4%	3.46	3.23	+1.2
2022	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	61	1	58	235	62	12	4	2%	0.9	27.1%	5.2%	21.8%	1.2%	2.81	2.15	+1.7
2022	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	61	1	58	235	62	12	4	2%	0.9	26.4%	5.1%	21.3%	1.7%	2.81	2.48	+1.4
2024	30	MIX MLE	3 levels	32	0	39	151	34	10	3	0%	1.2	19.0%	5.7%	13.3%	1.7%	2.79	3.13	+0.7
2024	30	MIX MLE	3 levels	32	0	39	151	34	10	3	0%	1.2	19.0%	5.7%	13.3%	1.7%	2.79	3.13	+0.7
2024	30	MIX RAW	3 levels	32	0	39	151	34	10	3	0%	1.2	22.5%	6.6%	15.9%	2.0%	2.79	3.13	+0.7
2025	31	MIX MLE	4 levels	43	1	45	211	34	11	2	2%	1.0	13.6%	4.8%	8.7%	1.0%	6.65	3.14	+0.8
2025	31	MIX MLE	4 levels	43	1	45	211	34	11	2	2%	1.0	13.6%	4.8%	8.7%	1.0%	6.65	3.14	+0.8
2025	31	MIX RAW	4 levels	43	1	45	211	34	11	2	2%	1.0	16.1%	5.2%	10.9%	0.9%	6.65	2.90	+0.9
2026	32	MIX MLE	2 levels	40	1	54	238	36	15	8	2%	1.4	12.3%	5.5%	6.8%	3.8%	4.33	4.84	—
2026	32	MIX MLE	2 levels	40	1	54	238	36	15	8	2%	1.4	12.3%	5.5%	6.8%	3.8%	4.33	4.84	—
2026	32	MIX RAW	2 levels	40	1	54	238	36	15	8	2%	1.4	15.1%	6.3%	8.8%	3.4%	4.33	4.53	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			88	1	85	352	88	17	7	1%	1.0	25.0%	4.8%	20.2%	2.0%	3.59	2.70	+1.9
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	33	MLB	SEA	58	0	61	258	34	11	7	0%	1.1	13.2%	4.4%	8.8%	2.8%	4.30	4.48	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	34	MLB MLE	SEA	53	0	56	236	31	13	7	0%	1.1	13.3%	5.4%	7.9%	3.2%	4.58	4.77	-0.1
2029	35	MLB MLE	SEA	48	0	50	212	28	13	7	0%	1.0	13.1%	6.2%	6.9%	3.5%	4.86	5.07	-0.3
2030	36	MLB MLE	SEA	42	0	44	187	24	13	7	0%	1.1	12.6%	7.0%	5.6%	3.8%	5.17	5.41	-0.4
2028	34	MLB CTX	SEA	3	0	3	13	2	1	0	0%	1.0	13.3%	5.4%	7.9%	3.2%	4.58	4.77	-0.0
2029	35	MLB CTX	SEA	1	0	1	4	1	0	0	0%	1.0	13.1%	6.2%	6.9%	3.5%	4.86	5.07	-0.0
2030	36	MLB CTX	SEA	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	12.6%	7.0%	5.6%	3.8%	5.17	5.41	—
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		91	1	89	367	90	18	7	1%	1.0	24.5%	4.9%	19.7%	2.0%	3.63	2.76	+1.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		206	2	200	826	202	40	16	1%	1.0	24.5%	4.9%	19.7%	2.0%	3.63	2.76	+4.3
Career	—	MLE		381	8	536	2282	406	138	43	2%	1.4	17.8%	6.0%	11.7%	1.9%	4.05	3.40	+1.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		142	3	200	852	151	51	16	2%	1.4	17.8%	6.0%	11.7%	1.9%	4.05	3.40	+0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Scott Effross (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.48	13.2%	4.4%	2.8%	—	5.06	13.0%	6.9%	150	+0.58	—	—	—
Tyler Sturdevant R 2017 · 4.48 FIP	31	SU	4.48	13.5%	6.7%	3.0%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	3.44	149	85
Juan Sandoval R 2015 · 3.82 FIP	34	SU	3.82	15.4%	6.0%	2.3%	.294	3.33	17.4%	8.8%	116	-0.49	3.24	225	81
Hector Navarro R 2015 · 4.35 FIP	35	SU	4.35	15.0%	5.4%	3.3%	.281	3.00	15.2%	9.0%	81	-1.35	2.30	126	81
Ben Weber R 2003 · 3.66 FIP	33	SU	3.66	13.9%	4.5%	2.1%	.292	5.03	10.4%	-2.2%	35	+1.37	2.57	284	76
Felipe Arredondo R 2019 · 4.65 FIP	32	SU	4.65	16.2%	7.1%	3.7%	.272	—	—	—	—	—	3.92	337	76
Pedro Rodriguez R 2019 · 4.14 FIP	31	SU	4.14	14.7%	4.9%	3.0%	.368	—	—	—	—	—	3.21	145	75
Erubiel Gonzalez R 2015 · 3.43 FIP	36	SU	3.43	12.4%	6.0%	1.1%	.328	3.26	14.8%	10.4%	69	-0.17	2.99	119	75
Keiichi Yabu R 2005 · 4.05 FIP	36	SU	4.05	16.8%	8.8%	2.3%	.307	3.48	15.9%	6.6%	68	-0.57	3.48	126	75
Rafael Martín R 2017 · 3.40 FIP	33	SU	3.40	20.4%	5.1%	2.5%	.305	4.71	22.5%	16.5%	47	+1.31	2.94	227	74
Mike Buddie R 2002 · 4.26 FIP	31	SU	4.26	15.1%	7.6%	2.7%	.297	—	—	—	—	—	3.76	123	74
Fernando Villalobos R 2017 · 4.70 FIP	32	SU	4.70	10.6%	8.0%	2.7%	.313	—	—	—	—	—	4.00	152	74
Jean Machi R 2015 · 4.56 FIP	33	SU	4.56	16.3%	8.6%	3.2%	.276	4.24	18.5%	11.9%	128	-0.32	2.16	306	74
Miguel Socolovich R 2019 · 3.55 FIP	33	SU	3.55	18.4%	4.7%	2.6%	.336	—	—	—	—	—	2.65	299	73
Scott Atchison R 2010 · 4.59 FIP	34	SU	4.59	16.2%	6.7%	3.6%	.263	2.98	15.7%	11.1%	127	-1.61	2.52	340	73
Esteban Haro R 2019 · 3.76 FIP	33	SU	3.76	9.5%	5.6%	1.4%	.353	—	—	—	—	—	3.76	164	72
Brian Schlitter R 2019 · 4.40 FIP	33	SU	4.40	14.8%	6.3%	3.2%	.331	4.70	14.9%	5.8%	48	+0.30	3.27	300	72
Zack Segovia R 2016 · 3.33 FIP	33	SU	3.33	20.2%	5.9%	2.2%	.312	4.55	17.6%	4.0%	57	+1.22	3.33	144	71
Willie Eyre R 2011 · 4.18 FIP	33	SU	4.18	13.9%	6.9%	2.5%	.182	—	—	—	—	—	2.87	164	71
Ivan Maldonado R 2015 · 4.60 FIP	35	SW	4.60	12.8%	8.7%	2.7%	.269	5.41	6.4%	-3.3%	104	+0.81	4.60	172	71
Tyler Walker R 2009 · 3.72 FIP	33	SU	3.72	18.0%	5.3%	2.7%	.243	3.77	20.7%	16.6%	35	+0.05	2.38	289	70

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.5	59	16.4%	5.7%	1.13	4.37
Dale Mohorcic ('86-'90, 3 WAR*)	1.8	73	14.9%*	6.3%*	1.09*	3.58*
Danny Patterson ('04)	1.9	64	15.3%	6.8%	0.82	4.14
Scott Atchison ('15)	1.7	50	17.7%	6.2%	0.91	3.63
Ramon Pena ('11)	1.9	63	16.0%	8.0%	0.90	4.43
Will McEnaney ('74-'79, 1 WAR*)	1.7	70	14.4%*	6.1%*	1.02*	4.35*
Tony Castillo ('88-'98, 4 WAR*)	2.6	59	18.5%*	7.3%*	0.98*	3.76*