Jarod Bayless

P Altoona Curve

Age 30 RHP 6'4" / 225 lbs AA

Overview

AAPROSPECT

MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	27	AASEA	19	0	23	4.76	4.60	14.4%	8.1%	—	K 11.7% · BB 8.9% · FIP 5.42
2025	28	MIX3 levels	37	12	77	3.97	3.58	23.7%	4.9%	—	K 19.0% · BB 5.1% · FIP 4.46
2026	29	MIX3 levels	24	1	45	4.37	3.08	20.8%	4.7%	—	K 17.3% · BB 5.2% · FIP 3.63
2027PROJ	30	MLBPIT	29	0	30	4.49	4.49	17.2%	5.8%	0.0
2028PROJ31% MLB	31	MLBPIT	9	0	9	4.59	4.67	17.4%	6.5%	-0.0

Next 2 projected WAR 0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 100%

CompsNeil Wagner (age 29) · Angel Castro (age 32) · Scott Atchison (age 31)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 118110vR 102

ERA4.49

FIP4.49

K%17.2%

BB%5.8%

K-BB%11.4%

Proj IP30

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 30 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2019	22	ROK MLE	AZL Mariners	8	0	16	58	21	1	0	0%	2.0	24.6%	2.2%	22.5%	0.0%	0.57	1.29	—
2019	22	ROK RAW	AZL Mariners	8	0	16	58	21	1	0	0%	2.0	36.2%	1.7%	34.5%	0.0%	0.57	0.61	—
2021	24	A+ MLE	Everett AquaSox	20	0	24	99	33	7	3	0%	1.2	25.7%	8.1%	17.5%	3.5%	4.18	3.89	—
2021	24	A+ RAW	Everett AquaSox	20	0	24	99	33	7	3	0%	1.2	33.3%	7.1%	26.3%	3.0%	4.18	2.85	—
2022	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	0	38	177	48	18	12	0%	1.3	21.4%	12.0%	9.4%	7.0%	7.65	6.66	—
2022	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	0	38	177	48	18	12	0%	1.3	27.1%	10.2%	16.9%	6.8%	7.65	6.13	—
2023	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	40	0	49	190	62	7	4	0%	1.2	25.0%	3.0%	22.0%	1.6%	3.14	2.25	—
2023	26	MIX RAW	3 levels	40	0	49	190	62	7	4	0%	1.2	32.6%	3.7%	28.9%	2.1%	3.14	2.05	—
2024	27	AA MLE	Arkansas Travelers	19	0	23	111	16	9	3	0%	1.2	11.7%	8.9%	2.8%	4.0%	4.76	5.42	—
2024	27	AA MLE	Arkansas Travelers	19	0	23	111	16	9	3	0%	1.2	11.7%	8.9%	2.8%	4.0%	4.76	5.42	—
2024	27	AA RAW	Arkansas Travelers	19	0	23	111	16	9	3	0%	1.2	14.4%	8.1%	6.3%	2.7%	4.76	4.60	—
2025	28	MIX MLE	3 levels	37	12	77	325	77	16	11	32%	2.1	19.0%	5.1%	13.9%	4.2%	3.97	4.46	—
2025	28	MIX MLE	3 levels	37	12	77	325	77	16	11	32%	2.1	19.0%	5.1%	13.9%	4.2%	3.97	4.46	—
2025	28	MIX RAW	3 levels	37	12	77	325	77	16	11	32%	2.1	23.7%	4.9%	18.8%	3.4%	3.97	3.58	—
2026	29	MIX MLE	3 levels	24	1	45	192	40	9	4	4%	1.9	17.3%	5.2%	12.2%	2.4%	4.37	3.63	—
2026	29	MIX MLE	3 levels	24	1	45	192	40	9	4	4%	1.9	17.3%	5.2%	12.2%	2.4%	4.37	3.63	—
2026	29	MIX RAW	3 levels	24	1	45	192	40	9	4	4%	1.9	20.8%	4.7%	16.1%	2.1%	4.37	3.08	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	30	MLB	PIT	29	0	30	127	22	7	4	0%	1.0	17.2%	5.8%	11.4%	3.2%	4.49	4.49	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	31	MLB MLE	PIT	26	0	28	116	20	8	4	0%	1.1	17.4%	6.5%	11.0%	3.4%	4.59	4.67	-0.0
2028	31	MLB CTX	PIT	9	0	9	38	7	2	1	0%	1.0	17.4%	6.5%	11.0%	3.4%	4.59	4.67	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		8	0	9	36	6	2	1	0%	1.1	17.4%	6.5%	11.0%	3.4%	4.59	4.29	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	139	46	23	0%	1.1	17.4%	6.5%	11.0%	3.4%	4.59	4.29	+0.6
Career	—	MLE		177	13	271	1152	233	73	42	7%	1.5	20.2%	6.3%	13.9%	3.6%	4.29	4.18	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		131	10	200	851	172	54	31	7%	1.5	20.2%	6.3%	13.9%	3.6%	4.29	4.18	-0.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jarod Bayless (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.49	17.2%	5.8%	3.2%	—	4.67	17.4%	11.0%	28	+0.18	—	—	—
Neil Wagner R 2013 · 4.02 FIP	29	SU	4.02	20.5%	7.5%	3.1%	.306	4.05	19.8%	7.5%	43	+0.03	3.11	135	86
Angel Castro R 2015 · 4.50 FIP	32	SU	4.50	15.9%	8.0%	3.1%	.268	4.28	13.6%	5.5%	231	-0.22	3.51	292	84
Scott Atchison R 2007 · 4.55 FIP	31	SU	4.55	19.1%	7.6%	3.8%	.297	4.59	16.2%	9.5%	60	+0.04	2.52	340	80
Pedro Rodriguez R 2019 · 4.14 FIP	31	SU	4.14	14.7%	4.9%	3.0%	.368	—	—	—	—	—	3.21	145	80
Adrian Garza R 2017 · 4.47 FIP	29	SU	4.47	16.0%	7.0%	3.4%	.351	5.18	9.7%	4.1%	113	+0.71	3.94	229	79
Bo Schultz R 2016 · 3.90 FIP	30	SU	3.90	14.4%	5.2%	2.5%	.276	2.73	16.4%	8.4%	27	-1.17	2.73	141	79
Felipe Arredondo R 2017 · 4.76 FIP	30	SW	4.76	14.8%	7.3%	3.6%	.311	4.65	16.2%	9.1%	64	-0.11	3.92	337	78
Francisco Mendoza R 2016 · 3.81 FIP	28	SU	3.81	17.9%	7.7%	2.3%	.344	—	—	—	—	—	3.13	120	78
Ryan Doolittle R 2016 · 4.38 FIP	28	SU	4.38	13.9%	7.1%	2.8%	.269	—	—	—	—	—	4.03	101	78
Marc Magliaro R 2018 · 3.94 FIP	28	SU	3.94	19.6%	7.3%	2.9%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.94	125	78
Jose Manuel Lopez R 2015 · 5.21 FIP	30	SU	5.21	18.6%	7.6%	4.9%	.373	3.56	18.5%	9.3%	93	-1.65	3.50	170	77
Ivan Zavala R 2017 · 5.02 FIP	30	SU	5.02	12.8%	8.0%	3.6%	.286	5.15	12.7%	5.3%	61	+0.13	4.27	209	77
Clay Condrey R 2006 · 4.07 FIP	30	SU	4.07	13.1%	5.7%	2.5%	.333	3.79	12.2%	7.3%	161	-0.28	3.18	250	77
Cody Satterwhite R 2017 · 4.22 FIP	30	SU	4.22	17.0%	7.1%	3.0%	.310	—	—	—	—	—	3.69	147	77
Esteban Haro R 2016 · 4.55 FIP	30	SU	4.55	17.1%	10.2%	2.9%	.338	3.83	11.6%	6.3%	75	-0.72	3.76	164	76
Adrian Ramirez R 2019 · 4.29 FIP	31	SU	4.29	21.7%	6.3%	4.0%	.327	—	—	—	—	—	3.04	137	76
Rob Wooten R 2015 · 4.86 FIP	30	SU	4.86	19.3%	5.5%	4.9%	.299	3.87	17.7%	14.4%	111	-0.99	2.48	253	76
Joe Nelson R 2006 · 3.91 FIP	31	SU	3.91	22.8%	10.4%	2.6%	.258	4.05	23.4%	12.8%	94	+0.14	3.08	139	76
Brandon Gomes R 2014 · 4.50 FIP	30	SU	4.50	17.4%	6.5%	3.7%	.230	4.81	18.1%	10.3%	82	+0.31	3.48	190	75
Justin Miller R 2017 · 4.44 FIP	30	SU	4.44	16.9%	4.4%	4.0%	.305	4.88	25.8%	18.8%	81	+0.44	2.63	292	75

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	28	17.3%	6.1%	1.26	4.54
Larry Casian ('90-'98, 0 WAR*)	1.2	40	14.7%*	6.8%*	1.25*	4.37*
Carlos Almánzar ('05)	1.2	60	16.3%	7.9%	1.32	4.82
Casey Fien ('17)	1.4	58	21.0%	5.1%	1.46	4.42
Jamie Walker ('09)	2.2	55	16.7%	5.8%	1.49	4.13
Steve Kealey ('68-'73, -1 WAR*)	1.1	54	18.5%*	7.2%*	1.32*	5.26*
Randy St. Claire ('84-'94, -0 WAR*)	1.3	50	19.0%*	8.4%*	1.39*	4.61*