Juan Hillman

P Albuquerque Isotopes

Age 30 LHP 6'1" / 195 lbs AAA peak 0.2 · 2027

Overview

AAAPROSPECT

MLB%10%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2019	22	A+Lynchburg Hil…	25	25	140	3.85	3.49	16.4%	6.8%	—	K 12.6% · BB 7.8% · FIP 4.36
2021	24	MIX2 levels	22	21	110	3.94	4.34	18.8%	7.3%	—	K 15.3% · BB 7.8% · FIP 5.43
2024	27	AAACOL	19	9	56	5.46	5.40	12.8%	10.1%	—	K 11.0% · BB 9.1% · FIP 5.24
2027PROJ	30	MLBCOL	6	6	38	4.90	4.90	16.6%	9.1%	0.0
2028PROJ37% MLB	31	MLBCOL	2	2	13	4.96	5.04	16.9%	9.5%	-0.0

Next 2 projected WAR -0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

CompsMarlon Arias (age 30) · Brandon Mann (age 32) · Orlando Lara (age 30)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 110118vR 126

ERA4.90

FIP4.90

K%16.6%

BB%9.1%

K-BB%7.5%

Proj IP38

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 38 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2015	18	ROK MLE	AZL Indians	8	6	24	103	20	5	0	75%	3.0	13.2%	6.1%	7.1%	0.0%	4.12	2.75	—
2015	18	ROK RAW	AZL Indians	8	6	24	103	20	5	0	75%	3.0	19.4%	4.9%	14.6%	0.0%	4.12	2.06	—
2017	20	A MLE	Lake County Captains	26	26	138	611	101	48	22	100%	5.3	12.2%	9.3%	3.0%	4.1%	6.08	5.52	—
2017	20	A RAW	Lake County Captains	26	26	138	611	101	48	22	100%	5.3	16.5%	7.9%	8.7%	3.6%	6.08	4.76	—
2018	21	A MLE	Lake County Captains	26	26	129	582	110	52	7	100%	4.9	14.0%	10.5%	3.4%	1.4%	5.18	4.05	—
2018	21	A RAW	Lake County Captains	26	26	129	582	110	52	7	100%	4.9	18.9%	8.9%	10.0%	1.2%	5.18	3.31	—
2019	22	A+ MLE	Lynchburg Hillcats	25	25	140	604	99	41	10	100%	5.6	12.6%	7.8%	4.8%	2.4%	3.85	4.36	—
2019	22	A+ RAW	Lynchburg Hillcats	25	25	140	604	99	41	10	100%	5.6	16.4%	6.8%	9.6%	1.7%	3.85	3.49	—
2021	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	21	110	463	87	34	16	95%	5.0	15.3%	7.8%	7.5%	4.8%	3.94	5.43	—
2021	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	21	110	463	87	34	16	95%	5.0	18.8%	7.3%	11.4%	3.5%	3.94	4.34	—
2024	27	AAA MLE	Albuquerque Isotopes	19	9	56	258	33	26	9	47%	2.9	11.0%	9.1%	1.9%	3.5%	5.46	5.24	—
2024	27	AAA MLE	Albuquerque Isotopes	19	9	56	258	33	26	9	47%	2.9	11.0%	9.1%	1.9%	3.5%	5.46	5.24	—
2024	27	AAA RAW	Albuquerque Isotopes	19	9	56	258	33	26	9	47%	2.9	12.8%	10.1%	2.7%	3.5%	5.46	5.40	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	30	MLB	COL	6	6	38	160	27	15	5	100%	6.3	16.6%	9.1%	7.5%	3.0%	4.90	4.90	0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	31	MLB MLE	COL	6	6	35	149	25	14	5	100%	5.9	16.9%	9.5%	7.4%	3.3%	4.96	5.04	-0.1
2028	31	MLB CTX	COL	2	2	13	55	9	5	2	100%	6.5	16.9%	9.5%	7.4%	3.3%	4.96	5.04	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		2	2	13	55	9	5	2	100%	6.5	16.9%	9.5%	7.4%	3.3%	4.96	4.67	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	138	77	31	100%	6.0	16.9%	9.5%	7.4%	3.3%	4.96	4.67	+0.5
Career	—	MLE		126	113	596	2621	345	231	80	90%	4.7	13.2%	8.8%	4.4%	3.0%	4.83	4.77	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		42	38	200	879	116	78	27	90%	4.7	13.2%	8.8%	4.4%	3.0%	4.83	4.77	-0.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Juan Hillman (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.90	16.6%	9.1%	3.0%	—	5.04	16.9%	7.4%	35	+0.14	—	—	—
Marlon Arias L 2015 · 4.32 FIP	30	SP	4.32	16.8%	12.2%	2.0%	.330	3.73	17.2%	9.5%	22	-0.59	3.73	154	83
Brandon Mann L 2016 · 4.72 FIP	32	SP	4.72	19.4%	7.9%	4.1%	.320	3.97	19.0%	7.6%	128	-0.75	3.59	190	79
Orlando Lara L 2015 · 4.29 FIP	30	SP	4.29	15.2%	10.3%	2.1%	.348	4.08	14.2%	7.2%	230	-0.21	3.85	426	77
Jorge Castillo L 2015 · 4.50 FIP	33	SP	4.50	16.8%	9.2%	3.0%	.292	4.95	12.4%	7.2%	186	+0.45	4.50	408	77
Roy Merritt L 2016 · 3.93 FIP	30	SP-	3.93	13.3%	5.9%	2.2%	.293	3.95	16.2%	10.4%	116	+0.02	3.93	129	75
Alejandro Soto L 2016 · 3.96 FIP	30	SP	3.96	14.9%	6.4%	2.4%	.367	4.15	15.9%	10.3%	97	+0.19	3.96	280	75
Jack Snodgrass L 2016 · 5.01 FIP	28	SP-	5.01	15.7%	10.1%	3.6%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	4.66	118	75
Carlos Teller L 2017 · 4.63 FIP	30	SP	4.63	12.2%	9.6%	2.5%	.322	4.90	13.1%	-1.1%	60	+0.27	3.75	333	74
Edgar Osuna L 2017 · 5.05 FIP	29	SP	5.05	10.6%	8.2%	3.3%	.345	5.09	10.0%	2.8%	83	+0.04	5.05	175	73
Kwang Hyun Kim L 2020 · 3.76 FIP	32	SP	3.76	15.6%	6.5%	2.1%	.214	4.21	17.7%	9.5%	107	+0.45	3.76	146	73
Darin Gorski L 2016 · 4.50 FIP	28	SP	4.50	15.0%	9.8%	2.6%	.299	—	—	—	—	—	4.50	206	72
Arturo Lopez L 2015 · 4.80 FIP	32	SP	4.80	13.7%	6.2%	3.8%	.301	4.80	10.9%	4.2%	217	+0.00	4.34	445	71
Tomas Solis L 2015 · 4.20 FIP	32	SP	4.20	15.0%	6.2%	2.9%	.264	5.09	12.0%	3.7%	159	+0.89	4.20	327	71
John Bale L 2003 · 4.12 FIP	29	SP	4.12	19.0%	5.1%	3.6%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	2.49	168	70
Misael Siverio L 2017 · 4.32 FIP	28	SP	4.32	17.3%	9.1%	2.8%	.299	—	—	—	—	—	3.89	185	70
Matt Lujan L 2017 · 4.69 FIP	28	SP-	4.69	14.3%	6.4%	3.6%	.348	—	—	—	—	—	4.06	227	69
Alejandro Astorga L 2017 · 4.01 FIP	30	SP	4.01	14.4%	8.2%	2.0%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	3.72	311	68
Santiago Gutierrez L 2016 · 3.90 FIP	30	SP	3.90	14.8%	9.2%	1.6%	.350	4.94	15.8%	5.6%	121	+1.04	3.90	341	67
Jeremy Horst L 2016 · 3.71 FIP	30	SP	3.71	15.1%	12.4%	0.6%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	2.12	181	67
Kramer Sneed L 2016 · 4.21 FIP	27	SP	4.21	13.2%	8.2%	2.2%	.265	—	—	—	—	—	4.21	116	66

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.4	37	16.8%	9.3%	1.22	4.93
Randy Flores ('10)	1.2	42	17.7%	9.3%	1.04	4.61
Jeff Manship ('16)	1.1	32	16.5%	9.3%	1.05	4.82
Sam Long ('25)	1.1	42	19.5%	9.7%	1.28	4.65
Kevin Hickey ('81-'91, 0 WAR*)	1.2	47	17.7%*	10.2%*	1.10*	4.27*
Bob Macdonald ('90-'96, 1 WAR*)	1.2	59	18.3%*	9.8%*	1.20*	4.32*
Dave Leiper ('84-'96, 0 WAR*)	1.4	46	15.6%*	9.1%*	0.94*	4.28*