Nick Hernandez

P Las Vegas Aviators

Age 32 RHP 6'1" / 212 lbs AAA

Overview

AAARPROOKIE

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	29	MIX2 levels	48	60	3.13	3.15	32.1%	9.6%	1.0	K 28.0% · BB 9.6% · FIP 2.89
2025	30	MIX2 levels	56	57	2.67	3.85	31.0%	12.1%	0.5	K 27.3% · BB 11.3% · FIP 4.25
2026	31	AAAOAK	34	55	7.85	5.06	20.2%	12.4%	—	K 17.4% · BB 11.1% · FIP 5.08
2027PROJ	32	MLBOAK	59	62	4.39	4.62	23.0%	10.0%	-0.1
2028PROJ37% MLB	33	MLBOAK	20	21	4.66	4.87	22.2%	10.3%	-0.1
2029PROJ32% MLB	34	MLBOAK	16	17	4.92	5.13	21.4%	10.8%	-0.1

Last 3 seasons WAR 1.5 · Next 3 projected WAR -0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2025

Whiff%86

K%43

xwOBA vs20

FB Velo10

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 100%

CompsJoe Nelson (age 31) · Dale Thayer (age 32) · Scott Atchison (age 31)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 121113vR 105

ERA4.39

FIP4.62

K%23.0%

BB%10.0%

K-BB%13.0%

Proj IP62

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 62 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF6565

CTRL4545

CMD6565

K†5555

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1091.3

Whiff%

p8631.0%

p4321.2%

xwOBA vs

p200.347

FB+1.5 (43%)

SL-4.2 (46%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2016	21	A MLE	Quad Cities River Bandits	4	0	7	32	7	4	0	0%	1.7	21.9%	12.5%	9.4%	0.0%	1.35	2.84	—
2016	21	A RAW	Quad Cities River Bandits	4	0	7	32	7	4	0	0%	1.7	21.9%	12.5%	9.4%	0.0%	1.35	2.80	—
2017	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	38	0	59	238	70	24	8	0%	1.5	23.0%	11.3%	11.7%	3.9%	3.37	4.74	—
2017	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	38	0	59	238	70	24	8	0%	1.5	29.4%	10.1%	19.3%	3.4%	3.37	3.71	—
2019	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	0	31	139	37	16	2	0%	1.4	18.9%	13.4%	5.6%	2.1%	4.02	4.35	—
2019	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	0	31	139	37	16	2	0%	1.4	26.6%	11.5%	15.1%	1.4%	4.02	3.10	—
2021	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	1	56	227	69	30	5	3%	1.7	25.3%	13.6%	11.6%	2.6%	1.61	4.10	—
2021	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	33	1	56	227	69	30	5	3%	1.7	30.4%	13.2%	17.2%	2.2%	1.61	3.40	—
2022	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	51	0	64	260	85	30	8	0%	1.3	27.5%	12.4%	15.2%	3.9%	3.66	4.48	—
2022	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	51	0	64	260	85	30	8	0%	1.3	32.7%	11.5%	21.2%	3.1%	3.66	3.48	—
2023	28	MIX MLE	3 levels	49	0	64	269	87	25	5	0%	1.3	27.2%	8.2%	19.1%	1.8%	4.22	2.84	+1.3
2023	28	MIX RAW	3 levels	49	0	64	269	87	25	5	0%	1.3	32.3%	9.3%	23.0%	1.9%	4.22	2.57	+1.5
2024	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	48	0	60	249	80	24	7	0%	1.3	28.0%	9.6%	18.4%	1.7%	3.13	2.89	+1.2
2024	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	48	0	60	249	80	24	7	0%	1.3	28.0%	9.6%	18.4%	1.7%	3.13	2.89	+1.2
2024	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	48	0	60	249	80	24	7	0%	1.3	32.1%	9.6%	22.5%	2.8%	3.13	3.15	+1.0
2025	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	56	0	57	239	74	29	8	0%	1.0	27.3%	11.3%	16.0%	3.7%	2.67	4.25	+0.2
2025	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	56	0	57	239	74	29	8	0%	1.0	27.3%	11.3%	16.0%	3.7%	2.67	4.25	+0.2
2025	30	MIX RAW	2 levels	56	0	57	239	74	29	8	0%	1.0	31.0%	12.1%	18.8%	3.3%	2.67	3.85	+0.5
2026	31	AAA MLE	Las Vegas Aviators	34	0	55	267	54	33	9	0%	1.6	17.4%	11.1%	6.3%	3.7%	7.85	5.08	—
2026	31	AAA MLE	Las Vegas Aviators	34	0	55	267	54	33	9	0%	1.6	17.4%	11.1%	6.3%	3.7%	7.85	5.08	—
2026	31	AAA RAW	Las Vegas Aviators	34	0	55	267	54	33	9	0%	1.6	20.2%	12.4%	7.9%	3.4%	7.85	5.06	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			17	0	22	104	26	13	8	0%	1.3	25.0%	12.5%	12.5%	7.7%	7.06	7.30	-0.7
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	32	MLB	OAK	59	0	62	262	60	26	9	0%	1.1	23.0%	10.0%	13.0%	3.3%	4.39	4.62	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	33	MLB MLE	OAK	54	0	57	242	54	25	9	0%	1.1	22.2%	10.3%	11.8%	3.5%	4.66	4.87	-0.2
2029	34	MLB MLE	OAK	50	0	52	220	47	24	8	0%	1.0	21.4%	10.8%	10.6%	3.8%	4.92	5.13	-0.3
2028	33	MLB CTX	OAK	20	0	21	89	20	9	3	0%	1.1	22.2%	10.3%	11.8%	3.5%	4.66	4.87	-0.1
2029	34	MLB CTX	OAK	16	0	17	72	15	8	3	0%	1.1	21.4%	10.8%	10.6%	3.8%	4.92	5.13	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		53	0	60	264	61	30	14	0%	1.1	23.1%	11.3%	11.8%	5.3%	5.61	5.47	-0.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		178	0	200	887	205	101	47	0%	1.1	23.1%	11.3%	11.8%	5.3%	5.61	5.47	-2.1
Career	—	MLE		336	1	453	1920	472	215	56	0%	1.3	24.6%	11.2%	13.4%	2.9%	3.75	4.05	-1.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		148	0	200	847	208	95	25	0%	1.3	24.6%	11.2%	13.4%	2.9%	3.75	4.05	-1.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Nick Hernandez (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.62	23.0%	10.0%	3.3%	—	4.99	21.8%	11.2%	109	+0.37	—	—	—
Joe Nelson R 2006 · 3.91 FIP	31	SU	3.91	22.8%	10.4%	2.6%	.258	4.05	23.4%	12.8%	94	+0.14	3.08	139	83
Dale Thayer R 2013 · 3.62 FIP	32	SU	3.62	23.7%	7.4%	2.9%	.287	3.85	20.6%	15.0%	103	+0.23	2.75	239	81
Scott Atchison R 2007 · 4.55 FIP	31	SU	4.55	19.1%	7.6%	3.8%	.297	4.59	16.2%	9.5%	60	+0.04	2.52	340	81
Rafael Martín R 2016 · 4.74 FIP	32	SU	4.74	20.5%	10.7%	3.7%	.265	3.96	21.3%	15.8%	110	-0.78	2.94	227	80
Jose Manuel Lopez R 2017 · 3.61 FIP	32	SU	3.61	20.4%	10.0%	1.8%	.331	6.14	17.9%	3.7%	41	+2.53	3.50	170	79
Deolis Guerra R 2021 · 3.89 FIP	32	SU	3.89	23.0%	7.4%	3.3%	.251	—	—	—	—	—	2.53	364	78
Mike Broadway R 2018 · 4.65 FIP	31	SU	4.65	23.0%	10.6%	3.9%	.282	—	—	—	—	—	1.74	195	77
Arcenio Leon R 2019 · 3.61 FIP	32	SU	3.61	21.4%	8.1%	2.4%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	3.00	115	76
Sergio Santos R 2015 · 4.17 FIP	32	SU	4.17	24.7%	8.2%	3.9%	.283	—	—	—	—	—	1.36	178	75
Angel Castro R 2015 · 4.50 FIP	32	SU	4.50	15.9%	8.0%	3.1%	.268	4.28	13.6%	5.5%	231	-0.22	3.51	292	75
Neil Wagner R 2016 · 4.05 FIP	32	SU	4.05	19.8%	12.3%	1.9%	.360	3.11	20.7%	12.1%	54	-0.94	3.11	135	75
Mark Serrano R 2017 · 3.56 FIP	31	SU	3.56	21.9%	6.4%	2.7%	.240	5.25	20.2%	12.3%	42	+1.69	3.16	120	75
James Hoyt R 2019 · 3.45 FIP	32	SU	3.45	22.2%	9.9%	1.8%	.355	5.63	22.1%	10.4%	50	+2.18	1.61	312	74
Brian Sanches R 2011 · 4.35 FIP	32	SU	4.35	19.6%	11.1%	2.7%	.250	—	—	—	—	—	3.39	229	74
Jon Edwards R 2019 · 4.43 FIP	31	SU	4.43	25.1%	11.6%	3.6%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	2.40	132	74
Jeff Fulchino R 2011 · 4.44 FIP	31	SU	4.44	20.4%	11.1%	3.0%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	3.36	178	74
Erik Davis R 2018 · 3.52 FIP	31	SU	3.52	17.4%	8.9%	1.4%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	3.05	227	73
Kazuhiro Sasaki R 2000 · 3.93 FIP	32	SU	3.93	29.4%	9.8%	3.8%	.212	2.88	24.9%	19.3%	161	-1.05	2.76	223	73
Leonel Campos R 2017 · 3.70 FIP	30	SU	3.70	25.7%	11.8%	2.3%	.241	—	—	—	—	—	2.62	168	73
Felipe Arredondo R 2019 · 4.65 FIP	32	SU	4.65	16.2%	7.1%	3.7%	.272	—	—	—	—	—	3.92	337	73

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	64	22.6%	10.6%	1.57	4.91
José Ruiz ('25)	1.4	57	22.3%	10.4%	1.44	4.62
Phil Hennigan ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.4	70	20.9%*	10.4%*	1.50*	4.95*
Scott Proctor ('11)	1.7	57	19.0%	10.9%	1.52	4.78
J.J. Hoover ('18)	1.4	57	23.8%	11.4%	1.42	4.17
Dave Beard ('80-'89, -3 WAR*)	1.4	92	23.1%*	10.3%*	1.50*	5.13*
Bill Scherrer ('82-'88, 1 WAR*)	1.6	62	20.7%*	10.2%*	1.19*	4.44*