John Murphy — OGILVIE

John Murphy P Dayton Dragons

Age 30 RHP 6'4" / 245 lbs A+ peak 0.1 · 2027

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION0 act + 23 ip · rates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 114106vR 98

ERA4.27

FIP4.27

K%22.5%

BB%8.4%

K-BB%14.1%

ROS IP23

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 23 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	37	0	60	259	59	23	8	0%	1.6	17.0%	11.0%	6.0%	5.3%	4.33	5.95	—
2023	26	MIX RAW	3 levels	37	0	60	259	59	23	8	0%	1.6	22.8%	8.9%	13.9%	3.1%	4.33	4.01	—
2024	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	34	0	42	172	43	12	3	0%	1.2	19.8%	7.1%	12.8%	1.2%	2.13	2.97	—
2024	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	34	0	42	172	43	12	3	0%	1.2	19.8%	7.1%	12.8%	1.2%	2.13	2.97	—
2024	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	34	0	42	172	43	12	3	0%	1.2	25.0%	7.0%	18.0%	1.7%	2.13	2.84	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	30	MLB	CIN	22	0	23	97	22	8	3	0%	1.0	22.5%	8.4%	14.1%	3.0%	4.27	4.27	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	31	MLB MLE	CIN	21	0	22	92	20	8	3	0%	1.0	22.2%	8.8%	13.4%	3.2%	4.39	4.48	+0.0
2028	31	MLB CTX	CIN	7	0	7	30	7	3	1	0%	1.0	22.2%	8.8%	13.4%	3.2%	4.39	4.48	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		6	0	7	28	6	2	1	0%	1.1	22.2%	8.8%	13.4%	3.2%	4.39	4.10	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	183	61	30	0%	1.1	22.2%	8.8%	13.4%	3.2%	4.39	4.10	+1.1
Career	—	MLE		71	0	103	431	78	41	16	0%	1.4	18.1%	9.4%	8.7%	3.7%	3.42	4.76	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		138	0	200	840	152	79	31	0%	1.4	18.1%	9.4%	8.7%	3.7%	3.42	4.76	+0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
John Murphy (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.27	22.5%	8.4%	3.0%	—	4.48	22.2%	13.4%	22	+0.21	—	—	—
Neil Wagner R 2013 · 4.02 FIP	29	SU	4.02	20.5%	7.5%	3.1%	.306	4.05	19.8%	7.5%	43	+0.03	3.11	135	90
Joe Nelson R 2006 · 3.91 FIP	31	SU	3.91	22.8%	10.4%	2.6%	.258	4.05	23.4%	12.8%	94	+0.14	3.08	139	87
Jim Miller R 2012 · 4.56 FIP	30	SU	4.56	20.9%	11.8%	3.1%	.243	3.95	18.8%	14.7%	74	-0.61	3.95	140	81
Mark Serrano R 2016 · 3.16 FIP	30	SU	3.16	17.7%	6.5%	1.3%	.290	4.36	21.1%	14.0%	88	+1.20	3.16	120	81
Scott Atchison R 2007 · 4.55 FIP	31	SU	4.55	19.1%	7.6%	3.8%	.297	4.59	16.2%	9.5%	60	+0.04	2.52	340	80
Kiko Calero R 2005 · 3.51 FIP	30	SU	3.51	22.7%	7.0%	2.6%	.252	3.23	23.3%	13.9%	99	-0.28	2.27	298	79
Dustin Molleken R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	30	SU	3.74	20.4%	11.7%	1.6%	.287	3.90	20.6%	8.4%	77	+0.16	3.38	129	79
Mike Fyhrie R 2000 · 3.08 FIP	30	SU	3.08	19.5%	5.0%	1.8%	.309	3.87	13.7%	4.4%	69	+0.79	3.08	173	79
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	78
Adrian Ramirez R 2019 · 4.29 FIP	31	SU	4.29	21.7%	6.3%	4.0%	.327	—	—	—	—	—	3.04	137	78
Erik Davis R 2017 · 4.25 FIP	30	SU	4.25	22.2%	11.1%	3.0%	.349	3.52	17.4%	8.5%	65	-0.73	3.05	227	78
Andrew Robinson R 2017 · 4.32 FIP	29	SU	4.32	23.4%	8.8%	3.8%	.245	—	—	—	—	—	3.19	160	78
Marc Magliaro R 2018 · 3.94 FIP	28	SU	3.94	19.6%	7.3%	2.9%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.94	125	78
Brian Schlitter R 2016 · 3.28 FIP	30	SU	3.28	20.6%	10.8%	1.0%	.333	3.81	14.4%	6.6%	110	+0.53	3.27	300	76
Esteban Haro R 2016 · 4.55 FIP	30	SU	4.55	17.1%	10.2%	2.9%	.338	3.83	11.6%	6.3%	75	-0.72	3.76	164	76
Jose Manuel Lopez R 2015 · 5.21 FIP	30	SU	5.21	18.6%	7.6%	4.9%	.373	3.56	18.5%	9.3%	93	-1.65	3.50	170	76
Angel Castro R 2015 · 4.50 FIP	32	SU	4.50	15.9%	8.0%	3.1%	.268	4.28	13.6%	5.5%	231	-0.22	3.51	292	76
Jose De La Torre R 2016 · 3.12 FIP	30	SU	3.12	22.0%	8.0%	1.6%	.248	2.64	20.5%	14.7%	19	-0.48	2.64	141	76
Francisco Mendoza R 2016 · 3.81 FIP	28	SU	3.81	17.9%	7.7%	2.3%	.344	—	—	—	—	—	3.13	120	76
Manny Acosta R 2011 · 3.75 FIP	30	SU	3.75	22.5%	7.4%	2.9%	.321	4.49	21.3%	10.2%	47	+0.74	3.08	350	76