John Murphy
P
Dayton Dragons
Age 29
RHP
6'4" / 245 lbs
A+
peak 0.1 · 2026
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 24 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 117108vR 99
ERA4.33
FIP4.33
K%22.6%
BB%9.0%
K-BB%13.6%
ROS IP24
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 24 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 26 | MIX | 3 levels | 37 | 0 | 60 | 259 | 59 | 23 | 8 | 0% | 1.6 | 17.0% | 11.0% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 4.33 | 6.11 | — |
| 2023 | 26 | MIX | 3 levels | 37 | 0 | 60 | 259 | 59 | 23 | 8 | 0% | 1.6 | 22.8% | 8.9% | 13.9% | 3.1% | 4.33 | 4.01 | — |
| 2024 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 34 | 0 | 42 | 172 | 43 | 12 | 3 | 0% | 1.2 | 19.8% | 7.1% | 12.8% | 1.0% | 2.13 | 2.85 | — |
| 2024 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 34 | 0 | 42 | 172 | 43 | 12 | 3 | 0% | 1.2 | 25.0% | 7.0% | 18.0% | 1.7% | 2.13 | 2.84 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 29 | MLB | CIN | 23 | 0 | 24 | 103 | 23 | 9 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.6% | 9.0% | 13.6% | 2.9% | 4.33 | 4.33 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | CIN | 22 | 0 | 23 | 96 | 21 | 9 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.3% | 9.3% | 13.0% | 3.1% | 4.43 | 4.50 | +0.0 |
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | CIN | 7 | 0 | 7 | 30 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.3% | 9.3% | 13.0% | 3.1% | 4.43 | 4.50 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 7 | 0 | 7 | 29 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.3% | 9.3% | 13.0% | 3.1% | 4.43 | 4.12 | +0.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 203 | 87 | 29 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.3% | 9.3% | 13.0% | 3.1% | 4.43 | 4.12 | +3.0 | ||
| Career | — | 71 | 0 | 103 | 431 | 78 | 41 | 16 | 0% | 1.4 | 18.1% | 9.4% | 8.7% | 3.7% | 3.42 | 4.81 | +0.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 138 | 0 | 200 | 840 | 152 | 79 | 31 | 0% | 1.4 | 18.1% | 9.4% | 8.7% | 3.7% | 3.42 | 4.81 | +1.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| John Murphy (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.33 | 22.6% | 9.0% | 2.9% | — | 4.50 | 22.3% | 13.0% | 23 | +0.17 | — | — | — |
| Tyler Sturdevant R 2026 · 4.07 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.07 | 21.3% | 8.5% | 3.1% | .241 | 4.06 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 118 | -0.01 | 3.28 | 149 | 87 |
| David Hernandez R 2027 · 4.32 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.32 | 22.9% | 7.6% | 4.0% | .287 | 3.20 | 24.9% | 18.4% | 192 | -1.12 | 2.56 | 268 | 86 |
| Diego Moreno R 2026 · 3.76 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.76 | 21.0% | 8.2% | 2.5% | .347 | 2.99 | 17.8% | 11.9% | 54 | -0.77 | 2.22 | 187 | 84 |
| Gerardo Sanchez R 2025 · 3.49 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.49 | 21.6% | 8.4% | 2.1% | .355 | 3.55 | 20.5% | 15.1% | 56 | +0.06 | 2.51 | 137 | 84 |
| Cory Gearrin R 2026 · 3.55 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.55 | 22.1% | 7.5% | 2.5% | .283 | 3.52 | 22.2% | 13.6% | 174 | -0.03 | 3.15 | 272 | 83 |
| Jonathan Broxton R 2028 · 3.57 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.57 | 24.5% | 8.2% | 2.7% | .325 | 3.78 | 21.7% | 13.5% | 76 | +0.21 | 3.57 | 137 | 82 |
| Coleman Huntley III R 2026 · 4.19 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.19 | 24.4% | 10.9% | 3.2% | .311 | 2.38 | 20.9% | 12.6% | 25 | -1.81 | 2.38 | 160 | 82 |
| Ryan Brasier R 2025 · 4.03 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.03 | 25.0% | 7.7% | 3.8% | .289 | 3.03 | 24.2% | 17.9% | 130 | -1.00 | 2.27 | 426 | 82 |
| Ross Ohlendorf R 2029 · 3.26 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.26 | 23.7% | 7.2% | 2.3% | .342 | 4.99 | 23.4% | 12.7% | 66 | +1.73 | 3.26 | 122 | 82 |
| Drew Storen R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.86 | 19.5% | 7.3% | 2.7% | .289 | 4.49 | 19.4% | 8.4% | 10 | +0.63 | 2.36 | 172 | 82 |
| Jhan Mariñez R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.16 | 21.2% | 7.9% | 3.4% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.23 | 253 | 81 |
| Cody Hall R 2026 · 4.45 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.45 | 26.8% | 10.0% | 4.3% | .299 | 3.95 | 25.9% | 8.4% | 19 | -0.50 | 3.53 | 134 | 80 |
| Marc Magliaro R 2025 · 3.72 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.72 | 19.6% | 7.3% | 2.5% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.62 | 125 | 80 |
| Al Alburquerque R 2026 · 3.58 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.58 | 21.4% | 11.1% | 1.6% | .330 | 3.18 | 21.3% | 12.5% | 114 | -0.40 | 2.76 | 228 | 80 |
| Chris Martin R 2026 · 3.28 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.28 | 18.1% | 7.0% | 1.5% | .319 | 3.06 | 20.9% | 19.2% | 42 | -0.22 | 1.76 | 416 | 80 |
| Wirfin Obispo R 2027 · 4.87 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.87 | 18.6% | 12.2% | 3.3% | .292 | 1.30 | 28.6% | 24.5% | 126 | -3.57 | 1.30 | 218 | 80 |
| Andrew Robinson R 2026 · 4.39 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.39 | 23.4% | 8.8% | 3.9% | .245 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.96 | 160 | 79 |
| Pedro Beato R 2026 · 4.86 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.86 | 19.2% | 8.5% | 4.2% | .275 | 3.73 | 18.5% | 11.1% | 152 | -1.13 | 3.40 | 295 | 79 |
| Dustin Molleken R 2027 · 3.61 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.61 | 20.4% | 11.7% | 1.4% | .287 | 4.00 | 20.6% | 8.4% | 77 | +0.39 | 3.35 | 129 | 79 |
| Carlos Fisher R 2029 · 3.44 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.44 | 22.6% | 11.6% | 1.4% | .236 | 3.25 | 22.5% | 11.1% | 91 | -0.19 | 2.56 | 147 | 79 |