Seth Martinez

P Worcester Red Sox

Age 32 RHP 6'2" / 193 lbs AAA

Overview

AAARP

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	29	MIX2 levels	57	0	65	3.18	4.33	17.6%	8.8%	0.2	K 17.0% · BB 8.6% · FIP 4.45
2025	30	MIX2 levels	47	1	50	3.93	3.22	27.1%	8.9%	0.8	K 24.8% · BB 7.7% · FIP 3.05
2026	31	MIX2 levels	43	10	76	5.47	5.52	21.9%	6.6%	-0.8	K 18.9% · BB 6.0% · FIP 6.11
2027PROJ	32	MLBBOS	65	0	68	4.80	5.14	18.3%	7.7%	-0.5
2028PROJ37% MLB	33	MLBBOS	22	0	23	5.17	5.42	17.5%	8.2%	-0.2
2029PROJ32% MLB	34	MLBBOS	17	0	18	5.50	5.72	16.6%	8.7%	-0.2

Last 3 seasons WAR 0.1 · Next 3 projected WAR -0.9Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2024

xwOBA vs46

Whiff%34

FB Velo10

K%10

CompsScott Atchison (age 31) · Ryan Kelly (age 31) · Mike Buddie (age 31)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 123115vR 107

ERA4.80

FIP5.14

K%18.3%

BB%7.7%

K-BB%10.6%

Proj IP68

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 68 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL5050

CMD3535

K†4545

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1090.8

Whiff%

p3423.0%

p1016.2%

xwOBA vs

p460.316

CT+0.7 (16%)

SL (38%)

SI (9%)

CH (11%)

FB-1.4 (36%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2016	21	ROK MLE	AZL Athletics	3	0	2	11	2	2	0	0%	0.8	18.2%	18.2%	0.0%	0.0%	3.86	3.87	—
2016	21	ROK RAW	AZL Athletics	3	0	2	11	2	2	0	0%	0.8	18.2%	18.2%	0.0%	0.0%	3.86	3.96	—
2017	22	A MLE	Beloit Snappers	20	10	95	394	73	19	9	50%	4.8	13.7%	5.7%	8.0%	2.8%	3.49	4.18	—
2017	22	A RAW	Beloit Snappers	20	10	95	394	73	19	9	50%	4.8	18.5%	4.8%	13.7%	2.3%	3.49	3.39	—
2018	23	A MLE	Beloit Snappers	42	0	71	291	58	16	5	0%	1.7	14.7%	6.5%	8.3%	2.5%	3.28	4.05	—
2018	23	A RAW	Beloit Snappers	42	0	71	291	58	16	5	0%	1.7	19.9%	5.5%	14.4%	1.7%	3.28	3.06	—
2019	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	42	0	72	280	74	18	3	0%	1.7	20.8%	7.2%	13.6%	1.2%	2.51	2.92	—
2019	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	42	0	72	280	74	18	3	0%	1.7	26.4%	6.4%	20.0%	1.1%	2.51	2.33	—
2021	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	39	0	61	246	81	23	5	0%	1.6	29.8%	9.1%	20.7%	2.6%	3.41	3.14	+1.0
2021	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	39	0	61	246	81	23	5	0%	1.6	32.9%	9.3%	23.6%	2.0%	3.41	2.64	+1.4
2022	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	43	0	54	216	53	18	5	0%	1.2	23.7%	8.4%	15.3%	2.5%	2.52	3.56	+0.6
2022	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	43	0	54	216	53	18	5	0%	1.2	24.5%	8.3%	16.2%	2.3%	2.52	3.34	+0.8
2023	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	54	0	63	283	75	27	6	0%	1.2	25.0%	9.2%	15.8%	2.3%	4.29	3.39	+0.9
2023	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	54	0	63	283	75	27	6	0%	1.2	26.5%	9.5%	17.0%	2.1%	4.29	3.24	+1.0
2024	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	57	0	65	272	48	24	8	0%	1.1	17.0%	8.6%	8.5%	3.1%	3.18	4.45	+0.1
2024	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	57	0	65	272	48	24	8	0%	1.1	17.0%	8.6%	8.5%	3.1%	3.18	4.45	+0.1
2024	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	57	0	65	272	48	24	8	0%	1.1	17.6%	8.8%	8.8%	2.9%	3.18	4.33	+0.2
2025	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	47	1	50	214	58	19	5	2%	1.1	24.8%	7.7%	17.1%	2.0%	3.93	3.05	+0.9
2025	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	47	1	50	214	58	19	5	2%	1.1	24.8%	7.7%	17.1%	2.0%	3.93	3.05	+0.9
2025	30	MIX RAW	2 levels	47	1	50	214	58	19	5	2%	1.1	27.1%	8.9%	18.2%	2.3%	3.93	3.22	+0.8
2026	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	43	10	76	320	70	21	20	23%	1.8	18.9%	6.0%	12.9%	7.0%	5.47	6.11	-1.4
2026	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	43	10	76	320	70	21	20	23%	1.8	18.9%	6.0%	12.9%	7.0%	5.47	6.11	-1.4
2026	31	MIX RAW	2 levels	43	10	76	320	70	21	20	23%	1.8	21.9%	6.6%	15.3%	6.2%	5.47	5.52	-0.8
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			118	0	145	621	127	53	17	0%	1.2	20.5%	8.5%	11.9%	2.7%	4.03	3.97	+1.0
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	32	MLB	BOS	65	0	68	287	53	22	12	0%	1.0	18.3%	7.7%	10.6%	4.1%	4.80	5.14	-0.5
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	33	MLB MLE	BOS	59	0	62	261	46	21	11	0%	1.0	17.5%	8.2%	9.3%	4.3%	5.17	5.42	-0.6
2029	34	MLB MLE	BOS	54	0	56	238	39	21	11	0%	1.0	16.6%	8.7%	7.9%	4.6%	5.50	5.72	-0.7
2028	33	MLB CTX	BOS	22	0	23	97	17	8	4	0%	1.0	17.5%	8.2%	9.3%	4.3%	5.17	5.42	-0.2
2029	34	MLB CTX	BOS	17	0	18	76	13	7	4	0%	1.1	16.6%	8.7%	7.9%	4.6%	5.50	5.72	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		157	0	186	794	157	68	25	0%	1.2	19.7%	8.5%	11.2%	3.1%	4.32	4.22	+0.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		169	0	200	854	169	73	27	0%	1.2	19.7%	8.5%	11.2%	3.1%	4.32	4.22	+0.8
Career	—	MLE		390	21	609	2527	513	189	75	5%	1.6	20.3%	7.5%	12.8%	3.0%	3.59	3.96	-0.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		128	7	200	830	168	62	25	5%	1.6	20.3%	7.5%	12.8%	3.0%	3.59	3.96	-0.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Seth Martinez (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.14	18.3%	7.7%	4.1%	—	5.56	17.1%	8.7%	118	+0.42	—	—	—
Scott Atchison R 2007 · 4.55 FIP	31	SU	4.55	19.1%	7.6%	3.8%	.297	4.59	16.2%	9.5%	60	+0.04	2.52	340	86
Ryan Kelly R 2019 · 4.33 FIP	31	SU	4.33	14.7%	7.2%	2.8%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	2.49	131	76
Mike Buddie R 2002 · 4.26 FIP	31	SU	4.26	15.1%	7.6%	2.7%	.297	—	—	—	—	—	3.76	123	74
Hector Navarro R 2015 · 4.35 FIP	35	SU	4.35	15.0%	5.4%	3.3%	.281	3.00	15.2%	9.0%	81	-1.35	2.30	126	74
Angel Castro R 2015 · 4.50 FIP	32	SU	4.50	15.9%	8.0%	3.1%	.268	4.28	13.6%	5.5%	231	-0.22	3.51	292	74
Sergio Santos R 2015 · 4.17 FIP	32	SU	4.17	24.7%	8.2%	3.9%	.283	—	—	—	—	—	1.36	178	74
Tyler Sturdevant R 2017 · 4.48 FIP	31	SU	4.48	13.5%	6.7%	3.0%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	3.44	149	74
Rafael Martín R 2016 · 4.74 FIP	32	SU	4.74	20.5%	10.7%	3.7%	.265	3.96	21.3%	15.8%	110	-0.78	2.94	227	73
Felipe Arredondo R 2019 · 4.65 FIP	32	SU	4.65	16.2%	7.1%	3.7%	.272	—	—	—	—	—	3.92	337	72
Jeff Fulchino R 2011 · 4.44 FIP	31	SU	4.44	20.4%	11.1%	3.0%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	3.36	178	72
Jim Henderson R 2015 · 5.27 FIP	32	SU	5.27	16.7%	11.9%	3.8%	.307	4.55	25.8%	16.8%	35	-0.72	1.86	167	71
Miguel Mejia R 2019 · 4.41 FIP	31	SU	4.41	15.7%	10.7%	2.3%	.341	—	—	—	—	—	3.37	108	71
Adrian Ramirez R 2019 · 4.29 FIP	31	SU	4.29	21.7%	6.3%	4.0%	.327	—	—	—	—	—	3.04	137	71
Pedro Rodriguez R 2019 · 4.14 FIP	31	SU	4.14	14.7%	4.9%	3.0%	.368	—	—	—	—	—	3.21	145	70
Kane Davis R 2007 · 4.82 FIP	32	SU	4.82	16.9%	10.2%	3.4%	.366	—	—	—	—	—	3.40	125	70
Cody Satterwhite R 2017 · 4.22 FIP	30	SU	4.22	17.0%	7.1%	3.0%	.310	—	—	—	—	—	3.69	147	69
A.J. Schugel R 2021 · 4.82 FIP	32	SU	4.82	16.6%	12.3%	2.9%	.351	—	—	—	—	—	2.80	299	69
Rudy Gonzalez R 2015 · 4.52 FIP	34	SW	4.52	13.5%	9.6%	2.4%	.347	3.84	14.0%	6.5%	79	-0.68	3.31	119	69
Josh A. Smith R 2020 · 4.22 FIP	32	SU	4.22	14.9%	7.4%	2.6%	.330	3.23	19.4%	9.4%	33	-0.99	2.91	598	69
Mike Broadway R 2018 · 4.65 FIP	31	SU	4.65	23.0%	10.6%	3.9%	.282	—	—	—	—	—	1.74	195	69

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.7	55	18.8%	8.6%	1.41	4.65
Randy St. Claire ('84-'94, -0 WAR*)	1.3	50	19.0%*	8.4%*	1.39*	4.61*
Carlos Almánzar ('05)	1.2	60	16.3%	7.9%	1.32	4.82
J. C. Gutierrez ('07-'14, -0 WAR*)	1.4	57	19.8%*	8.5%*	1.19*	4.72*
Bob Macdonald ('90-'96, 1 WAR*)	1.2	59	18.3%*	9.8%*	1.20*	4.32*
Josias Manzanillo ('04)	1.7	57	20.0%	10.2%	1.21	4.71
Bill Pleis ('61-'66, -0 WAR*)	1.4	56	19.7%*	9.8%*	1.15*	4.53*