Adonis Medina

P Lehigh Valley IronPigs

Age 30 RHP 6'1" / 187 lbs AAA

Overview

AAARPROOKIE

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2022	25	MIX2 levels	32	2	55	5.27	3.96	19.3%	8.9%	0.4	K 17.8% · BB 9.2% · FIP 4.09
2024	27	AAAWSH	49	0	65	3.76	3.86	21.9%	9.5%	—	K 18.8% · BB 8.5% · FIP 4.16
2025	28	AAAPHI	37	7	66	4.25	4.18	17.7%	13.9%	—	K 15.3% · BB 12.5% · FIP 4.22
2027PROJ	30	MLBPHI	65	0	68	5.46	5.37	15.2%	13.2%	-0.6
2028PROJ37% MLB	31	MLBPHI	22	0	23	5.44	5.50	15.3%	13.1%	-0.2
2029PROJ55% MLB	32	MLBPHI	30	0	32	5.54	5.66	15.1%	13.2%	-0.4

Last 3 seasons WAR 0.4 · Next 3 projected WAR -1.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2022

FB Velo32

xwOBA vs13

Whiff%10

K%10

CompsAlfonso Sanchez (age 29) · Bradin Hagens (age 30) · Rodolfo Aguirre (age 30)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 135127vR 119

ERA5.46

FIP5.37

K%15.2%

BB%13.2%

K-BB%2.1%

Proj IP68

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 68 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL3535

CMD3535

K†3030

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p3293.2

Whiff%

p1019.3%

p1015.5%

xwOBA vs

p130.356

FB+2.4

SL-2.5

CH-3.4

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2015	18	ROK MLE	GCL Phillies	10	8	45	189	35	12	1	80%	4.5	12.6%	7.9%	4.7%	0.7%	2.98	3.45	—
2015	18	ROK RAW	GCL Phillies	10	8	45	189	35	12	1	80%	4.5	18.5%	6.3%	12.2%	0.5%	2.98	2.64	—
2017	20	A MLE	Lakewood BlueClaws	22	22	120	505	133	39	7	100%	5.4	19.5%	9.1%	10.4%	2.1%	3.01	3.77	—
2017	20	A RAW	Lakewood BlueClaws	22	22	120	505	133	39	7	100%	5.4	26.3%	7.7%	18.6%	1.4%	3.01	2.62	—
2018	21	A+ MLE	Clearwater Threshers	22	21	111	472	123	36	11	95%	5.1	20.1%	8.8%	11.3%	2.4%	4.12	3.85	—
2018	21	A+ RAW	Clearwater Threshers	22	21	111	472	123	36	11	95%	5.1	26.1%	7.6%	18.4%	2.3%	4.12	3.14	—
2019	22	AA MLE	Reading Fightin Phils	22	21	106	468	82	41	11	95%	4.8	14.2%	9.6%	4.6%	2.4%	4.94	4.43	—
2019	22	AA RAW	Reading Fightin Phils	22	21	106	468	82	41	11	95%	4.8	17.5%	8.8%	8.8%	2.4%	4.94	4.07	—
2020	23	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	1	1	4	18	4	3	0	100%	4.0	22.2%	16.7%	5.6%	0.0%	4.50	3.33	+0.1
2020	23	MLB RAW	Philadelphia Phillies	1	1	4	18	4	3	0	100%	4.0	22.2%	16.7%	5.6%	0.0%	4.50	3.35	+0.1
2021	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	18	75	334	61	29	10	86%	3.6	16.2%	8.8%	7.4%	3.9%	4.90	4.96	-0.1
2021	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	18	75	334	61	29	10	86%	3.6	18.3%	8.7%	9.6%	3.0%	4.90	4.36	+0.5
2022	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	2	55	259	50	23	6	6%	1.7	17.8%	9.2%	8.6%	2.4%	5.27	4.09	+0.3
2022	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	32	2	55	259	50	23	6	6%	1.7	19.3%	8.9%	10.4%	2.3%	5.27	3.96	+0.4
2024	27	AAA MLE	Rochester Red Wings	49	0	65	274	60	26	7	0%	1.3	18.8%	8.5%	10.3%	2.8%	3.76	4.16	—
2024	27	AAA MLE	Rochester Red Wings	49	0	65	274	60	26	7	0%	1.3	18.8%	8.5%	10.3%	2.8%	3.76	4.16	—
2024	27	AAA RAW	Rochester Red Wings	49	0	65	274	60	26	7	0%	1.3	21.9%	9.5%	12.4%	2.6%	3.76	3.86	—
2025	28	AAA MLE	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	37	7	66	310	55	43	4	19%	1.8	15.3%	12.5%	2.8%	1.5%	4.25	4.22	—
2025	28	AAA MLE	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	37	7	66	310	55	43	4	19%	1.8	15.3%	12.5%	2.8%	1.5%	4.25	4.22	—
2025	28	AAA RAW	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	37	7	66	310	55	43	4	19%	1.8	17.7%	13.9%	3.9%	1.3%	4.25	4.18	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			19	2	35	164	27	13	2	11%	1.9	16.5%	7.9%	8.5%	1.2%	5.35	3.41	+0.5
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	30	MLB	PHI	65	0	68	287	44	38	8	0%	1.0	15.2%	13.2%	2.1%	2.8%	5.46	5.37	-0.6
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	31	MLB MLE	PHI	60	0	63	267	41	35	8	0%	1.1	15.3%	13.1%	2.2%	3.0%	5.44	5.50	-0.7
2029	32	MLB MLE	PHI	56	0	59	247	37	33	8	0%	1.0	15.1%	13.2%	1.9%	3.3%	5.54	5.66	-0.7
2028	31	MLB CTX	PHI	22	0	23	97	15	13	3	0%	1.0	15.3%	13.1%	2.2%	3.0%	5.44	5.50	-0.2
2029	32	MLB CTX	PHI	30	0	32	135	20	18	4	0%	1.1	15.1%	13.2%	1.9%	3.3%	5.54	5.66	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		72	2	91	399	63	44	9	3%	1.3	15.7%	11.0%	4.7%	2.4%	5.44	4.46	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		158	4	200	877	139	97	20	3%	1.3	15.7%	11.0%	4.7%	2.4%	5.44	4.46	+0.2
Career	—	MLE		216	100	646	2829	487	266	66	46%	3.0	17.2%	9.4%	7.8%	2.3%	4.14	4.12	-1.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		67	31	200	875	151	82	21	46%	3.0	17.2%	9.4%	7.8%	2.3%	4.14	4.12	-1.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Adonis Medina (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.37	15.2%	13.2%	2.8%	—	5.58	15.2%	2.0%	122	+0.21	—	—	—
Alfonso Sanchez R 2017 · 4.51 FIP	29	SW	4.51	12.5%	9.8%	2.2%	.346	7.58	8.6%	1.4%	39	+3.07	4.51	224	77
Bradin Hagens R 2019 · 5.46 FIP	30	SW	5.46	13.2%	12.6%	3.4%	.303	—	—	—	—	—	3.79	254	76
Rodolfo Aguirre R 2015 · 4.29 FIP	30	SW	4.29	12.4%	6.9%	2.5%	.288	4.81	11.4%	1.3%	125	+0.52	3.39	212	71
Elian Leyva R 2019 · 4.30 FIP	30	SP-	4.30	17.0%	8.5%	2.9%	.323	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	158	71
Murphy Smith R 2018 · 4.57 FIP	30	SW	4.57	13.6%	9.3%	2.6%	.273	—	—	—	—	—	3.16	300	71
Wes Obermueller R 2007 · 4.83 FIP	30	SW	4.83	12.6%	11.2%	2.5%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	4.72	308	71
Jose A. Flores R 2018 · 4.77 FIP	29	SP-	4.77	13.7%	10.3%	2.8%	.350	—	—	—	—	—	2.94	237	71
Derek Eitel R 2017 · 4.72 FIP	29	SP-	4.72	17.2%	16.0%	1.9%	.273	—	—	—	—	—	3.96	138	70
Jared Fernandez R 2002 · 4.23 FIP	30	SP-	4.23	15.6%	10.0%	2.2%	.323	3.57	11.8%	5.6%	38	-0.66	3.57	101	70
Josh Zeid R 2017 · 5.35 FIP	30	SW	5.35	18.3%	10.8%	4.4%	.334	—	—	—	—	—	4.00	313	70
Scott McGregor R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	28	SP-	4.37	11.8%	7.6%	2.4%	.293	—	—	—	—	—	4.37	107	69
Jon Leicester R 2007 · 4.44 FIP	28	SP-	4.44	11.0%	9.0%	2.1%	.292	—	—	—	—	—	3.76	113	68
Juan Omar Espinoza R 2015 · 4.81 FIP	31	SP-	4.81	8.9%	6.6%	3.0%	.346	4.84	8.4%	-0.8%	52	+0.03	4.81	104	68
Luis Mateo R 2019 · 5.55 FIP	29	SP-	5.55	8.6%	13.4%	2.7%	.303	—	—	—	—	—	3.48	160	68
Deck McGuire R 2018 · 5.28 FIP	29	SW	5.28	18.4%	13.2%	3.8%	.262	—	—	—	—	—	3.41	622	68
Matt Palmer R 2009 · 4.58 FIP	30	SW	4.58	13.7%	10.5%	2.4%	.251	3.72	10.6%	0.5%	49	-0.86	2.98	183	68
Fredy Quintero R 2017 · 4.45 FIP	29	SW	4.45	14.0%	8.7%	2.6%	.335	4.62	17.2%	3.5%	43	+0.17	4.29	241	67
Chris Jakubauskas R 2009 · 4.97 FIP	30	SW	4.97	12.1%	6.2%	3.9%	.250	4.42	15.7%	7.8%	72	-0.55	4.42	165	66
Mike McCarthy R 2016 · 5.03 FIP	28	SW	5.03	6.2%	9.7%	2.2%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	4.78	153	66
Seth Simmons R 2018 · 6.20 FIP	30	SW	6.20	13.3%	10.9%	5.2%	.242	—	—	—	—	—	3.07	251	66

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.1	56	15.4%	12.3%	1.04	5.46
Tyler Yates ('09)	1.2	62	19.7%	12.0%	0.94	5.12
Rodney Myers ('04)	1.2	60	15.0%	10.3%	1.05	5.07
Mike Mohler ('01)	2.1	60	15.0%	12.4%	0.97	4.99
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Daryl Patterson ('68-'74, -1 WAR*)	1.2	46	18.3%*	11.2%*	1.27*	5.03*