Caleb Ferguson

P St. Louis Cardinals

Age 31 LHP 6'3" / 225 lbs MLB peak 0.1 · 2027

Overview

MLBRP

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	28	MLBHOU	62	0	54	4.64	3.39	26.9%	9.6%	0.7
2025	29	MLBSEA	70	0	65	3.58	2.81	18.9%	7.0%	1.4
2026	30	MIX3 levels	43	3	41	6.64	5.17	19.8%	12.0%	-0.3	K 20.7% · BB 11.3% · FIP 4.76
2027PROJ	31	MLBSTL	47	0	49	4.28	4.35	20.6%	9.4%	0.1
2028PROJ	32	MLBSTL	43	0	45	4.48	4.61	19.8%	9.8%	-0.0
2029PROJ	33	MLBSTL	40	0	42	4.72	4.89	18.9%	10.2%	-0.2

Last 3 seasons WAR 1.8 · Next 3 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

K%40

xwOBA vs31

FB Velo18

Whiff%10

CompsRaul Valdes (age 32) · Adam Liberatore (age 31) · Randy Flores (age 31)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 101109vR 117

ERA4.28

FIP4.35

K%20.6%

BB%9.4%

K-BB%11.2%

Proj IP49

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 49 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL4545

CMD5050

K†5050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1892.2

Whiff%

p1019.7%

p4020.7%

xwOBA vs

p310.334

SL+5.6 (45%)

FB+4.1 (55%)

SI (23%)

CU (22%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2015	19	ROK MLE	AZL Dodgers	14	4	15	83	16	21	0	29%	1.0	13.1%	31.6%	-18.5%	0.0%	8.59	6.00	—
2015	19	ROK RAW	AZL Dodgers	14	4	15	83	16	21	0	29%	1.0	19.3%	25.3%	-6.0%	0.0%	8.59	5.21	—
2016	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	12	66	260	63	5	3	86%	4.7	17.4%	2.3%	15.1%	1.6%	2.31	2.78	—
2016	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	14	12	66	260	63	5	3	86%	4.7	24.2%	1.9%	22.3%	1.2%	2.31	2.01	—
2017	21	A+ MLE	Rancho Cucamonga Quakes	25	24	122	526	140	55	6	96%	4.9	20.5%	12.0%	8.5%	1.3%	2.87	3.61	—
2017	21	A+ RAW	Rancho Cucamonga Quakes	25	24	122	526	140	55	6	96%	4.9	26.6%	10.5%	16.2%	1.1%	2.87	2.80	—
2018	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	39	13	96	395	111	28	10	33%	2.5	25.6%	6.2%	19.4%	2.7%	2.53	3.22	+1.5
2018	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	39	13	96	395	111	28	10	33%	2.5	28.1%	7.1%	21.0%	2.5%	2.53	3.02	+1.8
2019	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	60	3	61	265	83	31	8	5%	1.0	29.7%	11.5%	18.1%	3.0%	3.98	3.68	+0.6
2019	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	60	3	61	265	83	31	8	5%	1.0	31.3%	11.7%	19.6%	3.0%	3.98	3.61	+0.7
2020	24	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	21	1	19	75	27	3	4	5%	0.9	36.0%	4.0%	32.0%	5.1%	2.89	3.37	+0.3
2020	24	MLB RAW	Los Angeles Dodgers	21	1	19	75	27	3	4	5%	0.9	36.0%	4.0%	32.0%	5.3%	2.89	3.48	+0.2
2022	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	47	3	42	179	50	21	2	6%	0.9	26.1%	12.0%	14.1%	0.7%	2.79	2.79	+0.9
2022	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	47	3	42	179	50	21	2	6%	0.9	27.9%	11.7%	16.2%	1.1%	2.79	2.84	+0.9
2023	27	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	68	7	60	270	70	23	4	10%	0.9	25.9%	8.5%	17.4%	1.4%	3.43	2.77	+1.3
2023	27	MLB RAW	Los Angeles Dodgers	68	7	60	270	70	23	4	10%	0.9	25.9%	8.5%	17.4%	1.5%	3.43	2.79	+1.3
2024	28	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	62	0	54	249	67	24	6	0%	0.9	26.9%	9.6%	17.3%	2.5%	4.64	3.41	+0.7
2024	28	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	62	0	54	249	67	24	6	0%	0.9	26.9%	9.6%	17.3%	2.5%	4.64	3.41	+0.7
2024	28	MLB RAW	Houston Astros	62	0	54	249	67	24	6	0%	0.9	26.9%	9.6%	17.3%	2.4%	4.64	3.39	+0.7
2025	29	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	70	0	65	270	51	19	2	0%	0.9	18.9%	7.0%	11.9%	0.8%	3.58	2.81	+1.4
2025	29	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	70	0	65	270	51	19	2	0%	0.9	18.9%	7.0%	11.9%	0.8%	3.58	2.81	+1.4
2025	29	MLB RAW	Seattle Mariners	70	0	65	270	51	19	2	0%	0.9	18.9%	7.0%	11.9%	0.7%	3.58	2.81	+1.4
2026	30	MIX MLE	3 levels	43	3	41	192	38	23	7	7%	0.9	20.7%	11.3%	9.3%	3.6%	6.64	4.76	-0.1
2026	30	MIX MLE	3 levels	43	3	41	192	38	23	7	7%	0.9	20.7%	11.3%	9.3%	3.6%	6.64	4.76	-0.1
2026	30	MIX RAW	3 levels	43	3	41	192	38	23	7	7%	0.9	19.8%	12.0%	7.8%	3.6%	6.64	5.17	-0.3
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			368	15	360	1562	396	139	37	4%	1.0	25.4%	8.9%	16.5%	2.4%	3.80	3.39	+4.9
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	31	MLB	STL	47	0	49	207	43	19	5	0%	1.0	20.6%	9.4%	11.2%	2.6%	4.28	4.35	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	32	MLB MLE	STL	43	0	45	191	38	19	5	0%	1.1	19.8%	9.8%	10.0%	2.8%	4.48	4.61	-0.0
2029	33	MLB MLE	STL	40	0	42	175	33	18	5	0%	1.0	18.9%	10.2%	8.7%	3.1%	4.72	4.89	-0.2
2028	32	MLB CTX	STL	43	0	45	190	38	19	5	0%	1.0	19.8%	9.8%	10.0%	2.8%	4.48	4.61	-0.0
2029	33	MLB CTX	STL	40	0	42	177	34	18	6	0%	1.1	18.9%	10.2%	8.7%	3.1%	4.72	4.89	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		451	15	447	1928	467	176	48	3%	1.0	24.2%	9.1%	15.1%	2.5%	3.95	3.57	+5.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		202	7	200	863	209	79	21	3%	1.0	24.2%	9.1%	15.1%	2.5%	3.95	3.57	+2.3
Career	—	MLE		463	70	642	2764	645	263	54	15%	1.4	23.3%	9.5%	13.8%	1.9%	3.51	3.40	+4.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		144	22	200	862	201	82	17	15%	1.4	23.3%	9.5%	13.8%	1.9%	3.51	3.40	+2.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Caleb Ferguson (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.35	20.6%	9.4%	2.6%	—	4.74	19.4%	9.4%	87	+0.39	—	—	—
Raul Valdes L 2010 · 4.02 FIP	32	SU	4.02	21.4%	9.9%	2.7%	.301	3.14	27.4%	22.5%	78	-0.88	2.29	160	80
Adam Liberatore L 2018 · 4.28 FIP	31	SU	4.28	18.6%	9.1%	2.9%	.354	—	—	—	—	—	2.38	124	78
Randy Flores L 2006 · 4.00 FIP	31	SU	4.00	20.4%	9.7%	2.5%	.333	3.30	18.1%	10.5%	93	-0.70	2.51	250	78
George Sherrill L 2008 · 3.86 FIP	31	SU	3.86	24.3%	11.3%	2.5%	.277	3.38	20.6%	12.4%	141	-0.48	2.74	323	77
Nick Hagadone L 2017 · 3.74 FIP	31	SU	3.74	22.6%	9.3%	2.5%	.267	—	—	—	—	—	2.97	141	76
Edward Paredes L 2018 · 3.81 FIP	31	SU	3.81	22.7%	11.9%	2.0%	.351	5.10	21.5%	14.2%	18	+1.29	2.36	130	76
Brian Fuentes L 2007 · 3.68 FIP	31	SU	3.68	22.0%	9.0%	2.4%	.235	3.19	25.4%	16.4%	166	-0.49	2.08	602	76
Pedro Feliciano L 2008 · 3.90 FIP	31	SU	3.90	21.1%	7.6%	2.9%	.309	3.02	22.1%	14.9%	122	-0.88	2.69	378	75
Jeremy Bleich L 2018 · 3.69 FIP	31	SU	3.69	20.3%	6.6%	2.7%	.296	4.41	20.1%	13.1%	33	+0.72	3.20	241	74
Andrew Barbosa L 2017 · 4.67 FIP	29	SU	4.67	20.2%	9.6%	3.8%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	2.70	175	74
David Purcey L 2013 · 3.79 FIP	31	SU	3.79	20.4%	11.5%	1.7%	.227	—	—	—	—	—	3.60	206	73
Tommy Layne L 2016 · 3.43 FIP	31	SU	3.43	20.3%	9.6%	1.5%	.266	4.25	19.4%	10.0%	90	+0.82	0.55	218	73
Mike Myers L 2000 · 3.27 FIP	31	SU	3.27	23.2%	11.9%	1.1%	.195	3.81	17.3%	6.8%	113	+0.54	3.22	533	72
Damaso Marte L 2006 · 3.33 FIP	31	SU	3.33	24.7%	9.8%	2.0%	.284	3.05	26.2%	17.3%	124	-0.28	2.41	495	72
Phil Coke L 2013 · 3.64 FIP	31	SU	3.64	16.9%	7.9%	1.8%	.308	3.47	17.4%	10.1%	159	-0.17	1.31	500	72
Tommy Phelps L 2005 · 3.98 FIP	31	SU	3.98	13.2%	7.5%	1.9%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	3.39	120	72
Vic Darensbourg L 2002 · 5.46 FIP	31	SU	5.46	14.2%	9.4%	4.3%	.304	4.11	9.4%	4.2%	22	-1.35	2.94	287	71
Kelly Wunsch L 2003 · 3.36 FIP	31	SU	3.36	20.6%	13.1%	0.6%	.152	3.82	21.0%	9.6%	24	+0.46	3.36	175	71
Buddy Boshers L 2019 · 3.73 FIP	31	SU	3.73	25.3%	10.4%	2.6%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	2.76	239	71
Ryan O'Rourke L 2019 · 4.08 FIP	31	SU	4.08	22.1%	14.3%	1.9%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	3.05	145	70

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.5	50	23.9%	9.6%	0.97	3.99
Neftalí Feliz ('21)	2.0	49	22.9%	9.7%	1.05	3.55
Jerry Blevins ('19)	2.5	45	24.2%	9.3%	0.91	3.54
Cam Bedrosian ('21)	1.5	50	24.0%	10.2%	0.92	3.81
Ken Dayley ('82-'93, 4 WAR*)	2.9	64	21.8%*	9.1%*	0.97*	4.10*
Mike Fetters ('89-'04, 6 WAR*)	3.6	55	20.3%*	10.4%*	0.83*	3.70*
Xavier Hernandez ('89-'98, 3 WAR*)	3.4	67	23.9%*	9.1%*	1.12*	4.20*